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Gates Predicts DVD Obsolete In 10 Years

Posted by timothy on from the tim-predicts-vhs-obsolete-10-years-ago dept.

An anonymous reader writes "Not to say that Mr. Gates has been wrong before (sarcasm), but now he is claiming that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years. As this post claims, I would have to disagree with the world's richest man and say that compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents." (And since SMH is going registration only, thanks to the anonymous reader who points out two non-registration sites -- FlexBeta and Yahoo! -- to read the same wire story, and for the observation that not all of Gates' predictions pan out.)

3 of 668 comments (clear)

  1. Video on demand? by jawtheshark · · Score: 5, Interesting
    It's nearly what he describes, well that plus a few automations (like the system knows what you like etc...) Uhm, I have news for Mr Gates: Video on demand has been the "next big thing" for at least the last 10 years.

    I still don't have it... The first question I think you should ask yourself is "Is there demand for such a technology", if not, ask yourself the following question "Can I create demand for such a technology". If both questions can be answered with a "No", which I think is the case for video on demand, then trash the idea... Nobody seems to want video on demand, and nobody managed to create a market for it.

    --
    Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
  2. More to it than cost... by Mork29 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents.

    That's not completely true. Higher quality will make another format more popular with users, and something that can't be copied easily will be popular with the MPAA. With DVD burners (even dual-layer and blu-ray) becoming available to the home user, DVDs are to easy to copy from the MPAA's view, and average consumers who don't burn dvd's and get told that a new format will look better on their new expensive HDTV will be tempted to switch over. I read a recent artical about a company that created a new video recording format that hold about 1GB/layer and can be layered 100 deep. It was some sort of "holographic" alternative that wrote the data onto what looked like a 1" square piece of glass. It even had it's own custom reader out that was rather small. Supposedly it's near impossible for a user to make a pirated copy of this movie, and something that small that can hold that much data would provide some incredible picture quality. Anything that can provide high image quality or is difficult to copy will catch on. Remember, the MPAA can shape the market, and if they like a new technology, they can put on the neccessary preasure to replace DVDs before their time. Of course such a move would motivate users to pirate movies online at the same scale they do music (which is becoming more possible with bigger HDs and highly available broadband). Well, in the end, nobody can predict the death of a technology, espeically somebody with a track record like Bill Gates.
    Ok, I think I'm done now...

  3. Re:Nah! by Schrambo · · Score: 5, Interesting

    So true. Its the same thing with Audio CDs. There are numerous other formats of audio media avalable such as MiniDisc, DVDA, SACD yet the same ol classic 44.1khz sampling late 70's technology still exists to be the primal choice of audio medium. This also could be the same thing with DVD till HDTV actually becomes mainstream and affordable enough for people who wish keep their two kidneys.

    VHS is still alive and kicking, sales may be down against DVD but the demand for VCRs and its cassets are still profitable enough to produce.