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Tech Turnover Rate Lowest Since The 80's
cimmer writes "USA Today, the San Jose Business Journal and the suspiciously captivating monitor thing in the elevator are reporting the results of a survey conducted by Aon Consulting that states voluntary turnover in the tech industry is at 8.9%, 'the lowest in the history of the surveys, which date back to the mid-1980s'. Given all of the talk about an economic turnaround, are we looking at a potential tech turnover spike as individuals leave positions they have stayed in only because of a dismal job market? Aon seems to think so. Interestingly, the results of this study are released just as CNN.com reports that personal income growth is at its weakest in two years. Also of note is a discrepancy in the reported sample size, with USA Today stating the results are based upon input from 595 companies while the Business Journal reports that over 950 companies participated."
Where once great herds of IT professionals roamed the valley, only a few clusters remain here and there, each skittish any remote lightning flash of resource realignment or rumble of offshoring.
It is worth considering tho, that Information work is a relatively new thing and where many businesses once spent nothing on it they now would have a staff or contractor responsible for making sure all their technology continues to go and many businesses are still getting a grip on what the right size of commitment should be for their IT needs. As long as staff have improper technology for their particular function thanks to poor assessment of need, there will still be wiggle room for more (or less) tech staffing.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
Hey, what's this pink piece of paper stuck to my paycheque?
Yeah, right.
I attribute this to the metaphorical "settling of the water". In the 90's people with absolutely no interest in computers, as well as those with no skill, started saturating the market to grab a quick buck. It the past few years, even those with skills have trouble finding employment, and most find themselves working helpdesk at a telemarketing firm, or as a webmaster/designer for a porn site. Those who are still here are the ones that do it more then just for the money... because it is what we were born to do.
"When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
People are staying put until the market sorts itself out. Nothing to see here...move along.
...is that the low turnover rate indicates seniority positions that survived the crash. More recent tech graduates are likely flipping burgers (or worse), whereas most of the older technical guys I know are still gainfully employed. All the young 'uns got burned in the startup business, whereas the geezers are mostly in much more stable tech environments, thus the turnover is low (since in this business "old" is still well before retirement age). Of course, this is just MHO, I could be missing something obvious.
Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
I really should update my signature...
It took me a VERY long time to get back into IT. Prior to this, I worked two other non-technical jobs only after unemployment and the two extensions ran out. During the period of unemployment I can't recall ever actually getting an interview. The crap-job I took at the airport let me to another job less crappy. During that job, I interviewed only a few times. Almost two years later I get this one. It's not the best paying IT job I've ever gotten but it's with a good company and it's stable. I'm not going ANYWHERE. That's the lesson I've learned from my previous years of job-hopping...
Where I work, it was mostly contact worker 70% to direct hires 30% on the order a couple thousand people. They decided to retain some of their intellectual capital that was running in and out the door (sometimes to competitors) and swap the percentages contract 30%, direct 70%. Direct employment is more stable here, better benefits/job security, etc. Something like that as an industry trend may contribute to lower turn over.
Speak truth to power.
Basically, I don't trust these numbers because of who was polled. This was a survery of businesses- and if this recession has taught us anything it's that prvate industry can't be relied on to tell anybody the truth about employment- or even actually the truth after they hire you. My suggestion to anybody taking advantage of growing employment in the tech industry is make sure that severance pay is written into your contract and that it covers at least 6 months of job searching level lifestyle.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
- Dependence on Chinese and Japanese foreign banks to prop up the dollar - how long can ths go on?
- reliance on non-sustainable consumer debt spending - how long can ths go on?
- realization that our great material life style will naturally slide a bit as third world countries out-compete us in some areas
That said, I am an independent consultant, and it seems to me that business has really picked up in the last year - so I don't think that it is all doom and gloom on the economy - it is just that things might not be as great as they once were.-Mark
Doesn't it make sense that a low turnover is correlated to a low wage growth?
I don't think it's common place to get big increases in salaries without moving on to a different job. Seems to me that most employers sqwauk at giving out even miniscule inflation raises (2 - 3%) where as, often times I find hiring employers are willing to pay more "for the right person", who will usually only leave their job if they get a better deal.
I don't know many people who would leave for a lower paying job, unless there is some esoteric reason, or much better overall compenstation package (i.e. health benefits, private yacht, etc).
Which gets back to my point, the only way to get large raises is to move around. Remain stagnant, and your raises will too.
Basically all the disgruntled folks will pack their shit and walk (that's another side of fire-at-will contracts, I can just pack my bags and go if I want, too). This is great for everyone. Senior people will get more interesting jobs, low level people will regain the opportunities to get to senior level (hard thing to do if senior people don't go anywhere from the team). People who are in IT by mistake and who managed to survive layoffs will finally find other jobs. Everyone will get better salaries, bonuses, you name it. I don't expect anything dramatic, though. But any bonus is better than NO bonus.
All of this, of course, assumes that the economy really picks up, which is something I'm not seeing.
What a load of BS.
The 90's people have already left. It's now 2004 Are you still going to use them as an excuse for world ills when 2007 rolls around?
"Those who are still here are the ones that do it more then just for the money... because it is what we were born to do."
People aren't "born" into their professions. Another reason has nothing to do with "love" and more to do with the choice between no job, or hanging onto the one you have. That's not "love" that's survival instinct.
This article pretty much states the obvious for me-
I'm in a job, working for a fairly stable place. I've had friends who had 5 or 6 jobs in the past 5 years. They've gone from the high of "wow, I'm makin' a shitload of money!" to the low of "damn...unemployment won't even cover my car payment".
Until things get really good, I won't be leaving my SECURE job.
So nobody else will be sitting in my chair (turnover) until you pry my sweaty, greasy ass off of it.
No reason to lie.
It's hard to be impressed by "lower turnover" when there so many people not eligible for turnover because they're still unemployed...
If you're making 50% less than you were three years ago, the odds are you were making twice what you should've been three years ago. People aren't being underpaid now, they were being overpaid during the .com boom.
Pleanty of us are making more now than three years ago. Not a lot more, but enough to be just at the edge of insulting.
If you can barely make your house payments, thinking about what your real opportuntity to double your salary again really is might be in order. Because barely making house payments at the top of the real estate market is better than at the bottom.
I doubt this change in the hiring market will affect anyone but the fairly senior people. Thats what I've been seeing lately -- an explosion in the number of available jobs for senior people, to the point where probably 75% of the senior or principal level engineers I know are actively looking for new options, and most are turning down offers on the path to finding one they really want.
The only way it'll impact lower level positions is if the software industry really takes off and companies need a lot more grunt labor, but I'd bet thats a year off, even if things stay improving, or if enough of a shortage of senior people happen that companies get agressive promoting from within -- but you run the risk of ending up with an underqualified development team just as most companies experienced in the late 90's.
The more projects my company outsources, the more they find they NEED the techies in house ... We have the same number of techies, but mostly we oversee outsourced projects ... and the company isn't going to let go of the only people who understand the technical processes and who can communicate with the contract workers what is needed.
"Flame away, I wear asbestos underwear"
Discussed in this recent article.
My experience has been that people with IT jobs that pay anything tolerable are glad they even have a job.
First, the .com and telecom overcapacity meltdown that led into the 2001 recession, then the growing outsourcing trend.
Meanwhile, "do more, better, faster, cheaper" mantra still plays with management and has continued to load too many additional chores onto people with no reasonable alternative in job choice. People have complained about the workload to a management that is completely out of touch with the problems and concerns of their employees.
As others have noted, the pent-up demand will lead to a spike in turnover if the economy ever gets into more than first gear.
More importantly, though, is what's happening right now.
Not a pretty picture.
If I were a CIO I'd be looking to make my org a nicer place to work right now so that my reputation for attracting and retaining good people would be in place when the herd starts to stampede.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
I'd have to say, this isn't really a bad thing. I mean, the days of a 'lifetime job' have really been long over for quite awhile. Your employer hasn't been rewarding a loyal employee with loyalty for years now.
I figured, if I was just as expendable as a straight employee as a contractor, hell, I might as well enjoy the benefits of contract employment!! You might as well get the high bill rate....(if you're making $50-$100/hr, $3K a year for insurance if single is nothing)...you might as well get PAID for the OT hours they ask you. And...generally, you don't get stuck at one dead end job all the rest of your days.
Yeah, I know it is more secure to have a perm. job...same place...etc. But, I put it to you...those days really have been long gone. And as long as you now have the instability and insecurity of a contract job...you might as well bet paid at the contract rate..
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
In my experience this is how most large companies do it:
1. Post ad
2. HR filters out all the really capable and honest people using unrealistic requirements lists (e.g. 15 years experience with Win NT in 1999) and/or requiring certs that only people with no real work to do, have time to get.
3. Only people who lied on their resumes get through the screening process
4. Pick the best of the lot
5. New employee turns out to be a flaky incompetent, shuffle him to make work
6. Tech manager hires knowledgable worker on his own, with out going through HR to do the flakes job
7. Company goes through layoffs, and the knowledgeable guy is let go first because he is not on the official TO&E
8. Flaky guy takes over knowledgeable guys projects and hoses them up
9. Tech manager quits in disgust
10. Flaky guy is promoted to tech managers job
I have seen this exact sequence carried out at least four times.
my old sig is obsolete, and I haven't come up with a stupid enough new one yet