Slashdot Mirror
Tech Turnover Rate Lowest Since The 80's
cimmer writes "USA Today, the San Jose Business Journal and the suspiciously captivating monitor thing in the elevator are reporting the results of a survey conducted by Aon Consulting that states voluntary turnover in the tech industry is at 8.9%, 'the lowest in the history of the surveys, which date back to the mid-1980s'. Given all of the talk about an economic turnaround, are we looking at a potential tech turnover spike as individuals leave positions they have stayed in only because of a dismal job market? Aon seems to think so. Interestingly, the results of this study are released just as CNN.com reports that personal income growth is at its weakest in two years. Also of note is a discrepancy in the reported sample size, with USA Today stating the results are based upon input from 595 companies while the Business Journal reports that over 950 companies participated."
There was a global sig of releif.
We made it through guys! Good job!
Where once great herds of IT professionals roamed the valley, only a few clusters remain here and there, each skittish any remote lightning flash of resource realignment or rumble of offshoring.
It is worth considering tho, that Information work is a relatively new thing and where many businesses once spent nothing on it they now would have a staff or contractor responsible for making sure all their technology continues to go and many businesses are still getting a grip on what the right size of commitment should be for their IT needs. As long as staff have improper technology for their particular function thanks to poor assessment of need, there will still be wiggle room for more (or less) tech staffing.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
my boss just caught me reading this ariticle on Slashdot and told me to hit the road. Thanks a lot.
Hey, what's this pink piece of paper stuck to my paycheque?
Yeah, right.
Does it mean we've passed the spike... or that most of us have realized that the grass really isn't any greener on the other side of the fence. Of course, I might just be bitter as I found out I'm going through a reorg where I'll go from developing new services to patching services. WooHoo, excitement city.
I've been working as a Technical Support specialist because all you College-educated people stole my job as a Fry Cook.
It's a joke, Honest!
I am the nightmare of nightmares.
I attribute this to the metaphorical "settling of the water". In the 90's people with absolutely no interest in computers, as well as those with no skill, started saturating the market to grab a quick buck. It the past few years, even those with skills have trouble finding employment, and most find themselves working helpdesk at a telemarketing firm, or as a webmaster/designer for a porn site. Those who are still here are the ones that do it more then just for the money... because it is what we were born to do.
"When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
People are staying put until the market sorts itself out. Nothing to see here...move along.
The funny thing is that wages and salaries were up in July, but other sources of personal income were down enough to reduce total personal income. From NASDAQ/Econoday:
But importantly wages and salaries did rise in the month, up 0.4 percent. Other sources of income weakened, including Medicare reimbursements, rental income, and interest income.
... until the next wave.
;)
Tech folks I know are happy to have jobs, even if they're not happy with the actual jobs themselves. Nothing exciting is really happening, and nothing that pays as well as boring, uncreative tedium.
All I know is my corp will be first against the wall when the revolution comes.
OTOH, my UT2004 sk33l7_ have improved quite a bit, over what was an admittedly poor baseline
Our director is (rightly) expecting an exodous in droves if the economy continues to brighten. Some of them are employees who just aren't of the "lifer" variety. Others feel used and abused. A few more might really believe there are greener pastures.
Amateurs discuss tactics. Professionals discuss logistics.
that's because we're all too demoralised to... oh feck it, I can't be bothered.
Tech in Canada has been non-existent for almost 4 years now (read: tech-bust and 9/11). I only see activity in Texas and some of the other larger states. I honestly think we're in a holding pattern until the Canadian and American economies go through a recession (another 5 to 10 years). Save your pennies folks.. or get into something else. The funny thing is that there has been so much shrinkage that most of the technically sound folks out there are holding on as best they can.. yet the companies want to move forward.
Personally, the pressure has been on for 3 years and I am burning out... are you? That doesn't bode well for the tech industry again.
(1st sig) If this were a snappy sig, you'd be reading it right now. (2nd sig) I'm a karma whore. >Insert FUD here
I'm on the verge of moving to the US from the UK, to work in silicon valley. The salary is very attractive too, so there's obviously *some* improvement happening. The same company wanted the same thing to happen roughly 18 months ago, and it just wasn't on back then... This is all assuming I can get an H1B in time, of course...
Simon.
Physicists get Hadrons!
...is that the low turnover rate indicates seniority positions that survived the crash. More recent tech graduates are likely flipping burgers (or worse), whereas most of the older technical guys I know are still gainfully employed. All the young 'uns got burned in the startup business, whereas the geezers are mostly in much more stable tech environments, thus the turnover is low (since in this business "old" is still well before retirement age). Of course, this is just MHO, I could be missing something obvious.
Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
I really should update my signature...
It took me a VERY long time to get back into IT. Prior to this, I worked two other non-technical jobs only after unemployment and the two extensions ran out. During the period of unemployment I can't recall ever actually getting an interview. The crap-job I took at the airport let me to another job less crappy. During that job, I interviewed only a few times. Almost two years later I get this one. It's not the best paying IT job I've ever gotten but it's with a good company and it's stable. I'm not going ANYWHERE. That's the lesson I've learned from my previous years of job-hopping...
Where I work, it was mostly contact worker 70% to direct hires 30% on the order a couple thousand people. They decided to retain some of their intellectual capital that was running in and out the door (sometimes to competitors) and swap the percentages contract 30%, direct 70%. Direct employment is more stable here, better benefits/job security, etc. Something like that as an industry trend may contribute to lower turn over.
Speak truth to power.
Basically, I don't trust these numbers because of who was polled. This was a survery of businesses- and if this recession has taught us anything it's that prvate industry can't be relied on to tell anybody the truth about employment- or even actually the truth after they hire you. My suggestion to anybody taking advantage of growing employment in the tech industry is make sure that severance pay is written into your contract and that it covers at least 6 months of job searching level lifestyle.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
- Dependence on Chinese and Japanese foreign banks to prop up the dollar - how long can ths go on?
- reliance on non-sustainable consumer debt spending - how long can ths go on?
- realization that our great material life style will naturally slide a bit as third world countries out-compete us in some areas
That said, I am an independent consultant, and it seems to me that business has really picked up in the last year - so I don't think that it is all doom and gloom on the economy - it is just that things might not be as great as they once were.-Mark
Doesn't it make sense that a low turnover is correlated to a low wage growth?
I don't think it's common place to get big increases in salaries without moving on to a different job. Seems to me that most employers sqwauk at giving out even miniscule inflation raises (2 - 3%) where as, often times I find hiring employers are willing to pay more "for the right person", who will usually only leave their job if they get a better deal.
I don't know many people who would leave for a lower paying job, unless there is some esoteric reason, or much better overall compenstation package (i.e. health benefits, private yacht, etc).
Which gets back to my point, the only way to get large raises is to move around. Remain stagnant, and your raises will too.
Basically all the disgruntled folks will pack their shit and walk (that's another side of fire-at-will contracts, I can just pack my bags and go if I want, too). This is great for everyone. Senior people will get more interesting jobs, low level people will regain the opportunities to get to senior level (hard thing to do if senior people don't go anywhere from the team). People who are in IT by mistake and who managed to survive layoffs will finally find other jobs. Everyone will get better salaries, bonuses, you name it. I don't expect anything dramatic, though. But any bonus is better than NO bonus.
All of this, of course, assumes that the economy really picks up, which is something I'm not seeing.
What a load of BS.
The 90's people have already left. It's now 2004 Are you still going to use them as an excuse for world ills when 2007 rolls around?
"Those who are still here are the ones that do it more then just for the money... because it is what we were born to do."
People aren't "born" into their professions. Another reason has nothing to do with "love" and more to do with the choice between no job, or hanging onto the one you have. That's not "love" that's survival instinct.
I'm making 50% less than I was three years a go. I can barely make my house payments. All of my spare time has been going into getting a college degree. My current employer offered me a 'gracious' 3% raise last year mixed with criticism for not following all of the rules (this compares with 10% annual raises and 10% yearly bonuses plus praise for being a maverick). Gee.. Do you think that a change in the hiring market may affect my employment. Yes... It IS all about ME!
Wherever You Go, There You Are
I've always thought of how many mis-placed people there have been and learned from their experience as though an Elementary School. When they feel abused and diminished because the Superior Official employs them for tasks menial in contrast to their previous accomplishments, the stain of their employment history settles in hard to depression. I know this one guy who was a Programmer and couldn't secure a Technical Support job as I did; being layed-off as I, he fell flat on his face in the various construction businesses and having not much physical strength yet above-average Building Code knowledge he nearly rotted away his career for almost 8 years. He didn't know the right people to get re-hired, in addition to this wicked California job resession, I'm happy he got a job back in Engineering and is only 2/3 the job he once held.
I am the nightmare of nightmares.
I hate to break it to the slashdot crowd, but people do get legitimately fired.
They also get legitmately let go do to better staffed businesses that are more tech savvy.
Other reasons tech jobs are lost:
Better quality computers
Better maintenance habits by users
More automated processes on computers
Hardware is pushed more consumer oriented (very noticeable in networking)
A lot of IT workers just don't do good jobs and have bad rapport with staff they serve
A lot of IT workers do their job for money and not for enjoyment - money & job logevity come if you enjoy what you do
Some people are actually realizing Microsoft and maintenance are not necessarily the best solution and turing to Macs or specialized devices to do work = need for less IT staff
I like how the author of the article had to get the subtle Bush bashing in the comment.
Yell & scream & rant & rave... it's no use... you need a shaaaave ~ Bugs Bunny
This article pretty much states the obvious for me-
I'm in a job, working for a fairly stable place. I've had friends who had 5 or 6 jobs in the past 5 years. They've gone from the high of "wow, I'm makin' a shitload of money!" to the low of "damn...unemployment won't even cover my car payment".
Until things get really good, I won't be leaving my SECURE job.
So nobody else will be sitting in my chair (turnover) until you pry my sweaty, greasy ass off of it.
No reason to lie.
It's hard to be impressed by "lower turnover" when there so many people not eligible for turnover because they're still unemployed...
USA Today makes the distinction that it was 595 tech firms that had the 8.9% voluntary turnover rate.
The Business Journal states that it was 950 companies that responded, but even it states that the 8.9% voluntary turnover number was arrived ONLY from Tech Companies (i.e., not from ALL the companies that responded):
From the Journal Article:
Voluntary turnover among surveyed tech companies is at 8.9 percent, according to Aon's research.
Let's read a little closer before making assumptions, shall we?
Watch the Teaser Trailer for "The Lightning Thief" Her
Right here - "Chief executives at U.S. companies that shipped jobs overseas won a 46 percent pay hike last year, more than five times the average CEO raise, while ordinary workers' paychecks barely budged, a study showed on Tuesday."
I have no idea how they can find that the tech turnover rate has declined..
It's all Bush's fault! There is NO increased income! None! It's all bad! It's allllllll bad!!!
Whew, thanks. I was possesed by the collective spirit of Slashdot there for a second.
Wait...spoke too soon! Feel....Microsoft.....rant....coming on.......
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
"I've been working as a Technical Support specialist because all you College-educated people stole my job as a Fry Cook."
Were you able to adjust to the paycut alright?
The more projects my company outsources, the more they find they NEED the techies in house ... We have the same number of techies, but mostly we oversee outsourced projects ... and the company isn't going to let go of the only people who understand the technical processes and who can communicate with the contract workers what is needed.
"Flame away, I wear asbestos underwear"
Discussed in this recent article.
My experience has been that people with IT jobs that pay anything tolerable are glad they even have a job.
First, the .com and telecom overcapacity meltdown that led into the 2001 recession, then the growing outsourcing trend.
Meanwhile, "do more, better, faster, cheaper" mantra still plays with management and has continued to load too many additional chores onto people with no reasonable alternative in job choice. People have complained about the workload to a management that is completely out of touch with the problems and concerns of their employees.
As others have noted, the pent-up demand will lead to a spike in turnover if the economy ever gets into more than first gear.
More importantly, though, is what's happening right now.
Not a pretty picture.
If I were a CIO I'd be looking to make my org a nicer place to work right now so that my reputation for attracting and retaining good people would be in place when the herd starts to stampede.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
Then I ask them to send me 1000 lines of C++ they're proud of. Doesn't matter what it does; I just want to see how they code. Many of them look scared. "Is C OK?" "I'm not really that good at C++". "Can I use Python?".
When someone sends us code, I read it and send comments back. I'm looking for robustness. ("We have received your code sample. Your first buffer overflow is on line 52. Thank you for your interest in Team Overbot.") I'm looking for some basic knowledge of C++. I'm looking for a reasonable level of comments.
I think the number of good programmers out there is declining. There are hordes of sysadmins and low-level coders, more than ever, but most of them aren't that good.
In my experience this is how most large companies do it:
1. Post ad
2. HR filters out all the really capable and honest people using unrealistic requirements lists (e.g. 15 years experience with Win NT in 1999) and/or requiring certs that only people with no real work to do, have time to get.
3. Only people who lied on their resumes get through the screening process
4. Pick the best of the lot
5. New employee turns out to be a flaky incompetent, shuffle him to make work
6. Tech manager hires knowledgable worker on his own, with out going through HR to do the flakes job
7. Company goes through layoffs, and the knowledgeable guy is let go first because he is not on the official TO&E
8. Flaky guy takes over knowledgeable guys projects and hoses them up
9. Tech manager quits in disgust
10. Flaky guy is promoted to tech managers job
I have seen this exact sequence carried out at least four times.
my old sig is obsolete, and I haven't come up with a stupid enough new one yet