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The Monetary Economics of Thurston Howell III

DLWormwood writes "In what has to be the Strangest... Essay... Ever... The libertarian Ludwig von Mises Institute website has posted an essay which goes way too in-depth over the topic of why the castaways of Gilligan's Island used Thurston Howell III's 'worthless paper' instead of gold or seashells."

88 of 455 comments (clear)

  1. What is the lesson learned from this essay? by Scoria · · Score: 4, Funny

    That is correct. Never, under any circumstance, should you drink the saltwater!

    --
    Do you like German cars?
    1. Re:What is the lesson learned from this essay? by Daniel_Staal · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually... If you would otherwise die from thirst, and you know what you are doing, that is not true. You can drink about a glass a day of saltwater to stay hydrated. (This does not mean stay healthy. It means stay alive...)

      More info at this Survival at Sea site.

      --
      'Sensible' is a curse word.
  2. Not bad by Hanzie · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It is actually an essay on economics, and makes some very good points. It uses the Gilligan's Island as an example, because it's very obvious to many, and all the economic factors are known to all the readers.

    The essay then goes on to discuss Swiss Dinara and Saddam Dinars which are both very much real, and quite comparable to money on the TV show.

    I think the headline does a real disservice to the author of the essay.

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    ********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
    1. Re:Not bad by Zenmonkeycat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It would be better called "Post-Fiat Monetary Economics."

      --

      *****
      Dear Mary,
      I yearn for you tragically,
      A.T. Tappman, Chaplain, U.S. Army.

  3. That's cause by fred911 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Everyone knows. Cash is king! (even if you can't do a damn thing with it:-)

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  4. I smelt a slashdotting coming... by djsmiley · · Score: 4, Informative

    So here is some caches...

    http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:f9Bdhed8_h8J: www.mises.org/+&hl=en

    http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:8-dfbA5SWVwJ: www.tvtome.com/GilligansIsland/+&hl=en

    Also i have to say this is a rather strange artical. I've taken a quick look at it and if im honest, im totally lost!.

    P.S. Sorry for the untidy formatting, its late at night.

    --
    - http://www.milkme.co.uk
  5. But Why... by darth_MALL · · Score: 4, Funny

    If they can do this, surely there's someone publishing a paper on "How to make a geiger counter from coconuts". At least I hope they are...

  6. I tried to RTFA... by steevo.com · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...but after a few paragraphs I couldn't stop thinking about the most important Gilligan's Island question: Ginger or Mary Ann?

    1. Re:I tried to RTFA... by NeoSkandranon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Both.

      --
      If you can't see the value in jet powered ants you should turn in your nerd card. - Dunbal (464142)
    2. Re:I tried to RTFA... by Tackhead · · Score: 5, Funny
      > ...but after a few paragraphs I couldn't stop thinking about the most important Gilligan's Island question: Ginger or Mary Ann?

      If I had a million coconuts, I'll tell you what I'd do. Ginger and Mary Ann.

    3. Re:I tried to RTFA... by LurkerXXX · · Score: 4, Funny

      Then there are always a few sickos who'd go for Mrs. Howell.

    4. Re:I tried to RTFA... by bobobobo · · Score: 2, Funny
      Or Gilligan.

      /shudder

  7. Gilligan's Island is a "hook", not the contents by elflet · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Using Gilligan's Island as an example is a "hook" to draw the reader in, just as the mods conflate opinions into their descriptions of a story. The real story is about how people react to new monies being introduced, especially when one regime is replaced by another. The article cites, for example, the practice of US soldiers distributing $20 bills into Iraq in place of the existing Dinars, but people not only kept using the familiar currency but the Dinar doubled in value as compared to the dollar in spite of it no longer being an official currency. Except in the case of truly "breathrough" innovations, the tried and true usually wins out over the new (and presumably intersting) until there's a critical mass using it. Research shows that the point at which a new innovation takes over is around 25% of the available market (which is why the iPod has begun to pop up so widely; people who aren't early-adopter techie types are seeing enough of their friends using them to get over the inertia of not being the first to use something.) So, this is an article about people using familiar currency over new currency; it juat happens they chose a TV show for their hypothetical example rather than making one up out of whole cloth.

    1. Re:Gilligan's Island is a "hook", not the contents by crabpeople · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Except in the case of truly "breathrough" innovations, the tried and true usually wins out over the new (and presumably intersting) until there's a critical mass using it."..."So, this is an article about people using familiar currency over new currency"

      i sort of read it as people using a stable currency with no possibility of inflation, over something that could fluctuate wildly. This is why he was talking about a finite amount of money as apposed to the unknown amount of gold in the islands mine.

      also this sort of explains why the US federal resevere will one day collapse do to lack of being backed by anything (b/c of the abandonment of the gold standard)

      or at least thats how i read the article.

      --
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    2. Re:Gilligan's Island is a "hook", not the contents by JohnDeHope3 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "The real story is about how people react to new monies..." No. The real story is about how people react to non-inflationary monies. The old Iraqi currency didn't remain popular because it was old, it was popular because it was not being printed in mass quantities. Recall that if the supply of something rises, the price must fall. This is just as true for currency as it is for anything else that has cost associated with it.

    3. Re:Gilligan's Island is a "hook", not the contents by ahdeoz · · Score: 5, Informative

      The whole point of government backed "fiat" money (which was completely missed in the article) is that the supply of money is regulated. Current dollars represent an amount of previous dollars, which represented an amount of gold, which represented an amount of coconuts, which were bartered for fish for cream pies once upon a time. The "fiat" is there to primarily to prevent counterfitting to make sure that the supply remains fairly constant (though gradually increasing over time as more wealth is "created.) The money exchange market (and the market in general, i.e., the price of goods and services, and especially loan interest rates) act as checks that the declared value does not exceed the actual value in previous commodities. Dinars doubled in value because there was a fixed amount (as long as counterfitting did not occur -- which is why it could only continue for a short time) and the quantity of dollars in circulation was rapidly increasing. The "post-fiat" dinars were still directly tied to the dollar (gold) standard but there was a massive influx of gold (greenbacks) at the time, resulting in inflation.

    4. Re:Gilligan's Island is a "hook", not the contents by operagost · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Nearly every nation uses unbacked currency now, so I guess we're all screwed.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    5. Re:Gilligan's Island is a "hook", not the contents by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually, I sort of take the article to be the basic Libertarian line that the world would be so much better if the government just didn't get involved. In this case, there will be money with or without government involvement, but it will be more stable if the government isn't involved.

      Based on the article, I am led to think that with more people in the country, and more items on the market (both type and number), more money would be required simply to maintain a stable value. Otherwise you get deflation (?), and the money becomes more valuable, and harder to obtain for the have-nots. Therefore, printing money is important, but it has to be at a rate matching the GDP.

  8. Thurston Howell by TrentL · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'll bet he could have bought a lot of these.

    Yeah, it's off topic, but so is the original post. So there.

  9. Mary Ann. by Cowclops · · Score: 2, Funny

    Mary Ann. Duh.

  10. Science? by Hatta · · Score: 2, Interesting

    As if economics were science. At least sociologists perform controlled experiments from time to time. Economists use the same sort of observations and reasoning to support their predetermined conclusions that lead people to conclude that the burn mark on that tortilla is an apparition of jesus. In short, economics is a branch of philosophy rather than science. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Philosophy is useful and important, but we have to remember that nothing in economics is as tested and as certain as anything else we call science.

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    1. Re:Science? by Nick+of+NSTime · · Score: 2, Informative

      Economics is one of the social sciences. Given the amount of math one has to take to earn a BSc in Economics, it deserves its status as a branch of science!

    2. Re:Science? by Hatta · · Score: 2, Interesting

      More like psychology than philosophy. In both the tests required to provide repeatable proof are either impossible or immoral.

      There's a good deal of actual scientific research in psychology. The one that comes to mind is the Milgram experiment. If you don't know about it, you need to. There are also experiments in developmental psychology that tell us when children pick up concepts like the amount of liquid doesn't change when you pour it into a different shaped container.

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    3. Re:Science? by Coz · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's a "social Science" because they follow the scientific method as well as they can, but it's nigh unto impossible to actually perform meaningful experiments in economics above the micro- level (unless you're a world oil power, in which case you can experiment with demand-curves all you want). That's one of the weaknesses of the scientific method when applied to things above the biologcal scale - you can come up with the hypothesis, you can even come up with the experiment - but for it to be meaningful, you'd have to persuade a few thousand people to take part without modifying any other elements of their behavior. Tough for them.

      --
      I love vegetarians - some of my favorite foods are vegetarians.
    4. Re:Science? by Hatta · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The essence of scientific knowledge is its testability. One could create a complicated system of numerology (fortune telling) that required years of calculus. Wouldn't make it science.

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    5. Re:Science? by GoofyBoy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      >Economists use the same sort of observations and reasoning to support their predetermined conclusions

      How do your perform an controlled experiment in astronomy?
      Can you prove anything palentology since there is only one general set of fossils made in one specific set of conditions we can study?

      Or are these all non-science areas?

      --
      The surprise isn't how often we make bad choices; the surprise is how seldom they defeat us.
    6. Re:Science? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If you spend some time and read the mises.org site (Mises/Rothbard/Hayek) you would realise that they take issue with the Keynesians on this specific issue.

      Keynes was a mathematictian, who tried to put the field of economics under the umbrella of math/physics and thus tried to make it a "hard" science.

      Mises and others, notablely Rothbard, believe that economics belongs not under the science heading (because it is not reproducable, plus other reasons) but should be considered under the area of philisophy. The actual name given to this philosopy is praxeology.

      A VERY good book to read on this is "Man, Economy and State" by Murray Rothbard.

      And if some of this seem obvious to you slashdotter's, congradulations, that puts you way ahead of thousands of "so called" economists whole spend their whole lives trying to decypher rules from vast amounts of economic data without having a valid initial undertanding of what they are looking at.

      Like saying that Astrology is equivalent to Astronomy because they both make careful study of the stars.

    7. Re:Science? by scruffyMark · · Score: 2, Insightful
      One could create a complicated system of numerology (fortune telling) that required years of calculus.

      Been done - it's called economics.

      --

      What is the robbing of a bank, compared to the founding of a bank? -- Bertolt Brecht

    8. Re:Science? by CGP314 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I have a BSc in a real science (Physics) and have taken more than my fair share of Economics classes. You could use lots of very complicated math to describe love, but that does not make it any more scientific.

    9. Re:Science? by gilroy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Essentially no practicing scientist actually follows the hallowed "Scientific Method". Taken as a whole, the endeavor we call "science" more or less follows the method. The Scientific Method as quote in Wikipedia and in middle school textbooks throughout the land, is a comforting fiction.

      The essence of science is the construction of falsifiable theories whose falseness can, in principle, be established by experiment (or observation of a large number of systems, which admits astrophysics and quantum mechanics into the club). The problem with economics, as a whole, is that the system studied is so complex and so ill-constrained, that it's hard to design experiments (or studies) that rise above the social noise.

    10. Re:Science? by kalidasa · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You observe a statistically huge number of events and see if the distributions match the theory. Most philosophers of science will, implicitly at least, add "statistical observation" to "controlled experimentation" as the methods of science.

      And this differs from the methodology of economics in what way?

    11. Re:Science? by LaissezFaire · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Austrian economists wouldn't dream of trying. You're thinking about Keynesians, which is what every policy coming out of the Federal government relies on.

      And economists talk about "goods", not "love." Maybe that's why it's the dismal science . . .

  11. Ob. Gilligan's Island hell metaphor by bobobobo · · Score: 4, Funny
    The island is actually a metaphor for hell. With each of the seven deadly sins being represented.

    Greed: Thurston Howell the Third, obviously.

    Sloth: Mrs. Howell, rarely saw her lift a finger.

    Pride: The Professor, had a bit of a superiority complex with his prized intellect.

    Lust: Ginger, duh.

    Envy: Maryanne, secretly covets Ginger's beauty/talent.

    Wrath/Greed: The Skipper, he's both fat and mad all the time so he easily fits into representing both sins.

    Gilligan? He's the Devil who is always wearing red, and always finding someway of foiling their attempts to get off the island virtually every single episode.

    1. Re:Ob. Gilligan's Island hell metaphor by bje2 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      here's a website on it...

      --

      "Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true." - Homer Simpson
    2. Re:Ob. Gilligan's Island hell metaphor by bobobobo · · Score: 2, Informative

      Whoops, I meant the Skipper represents both Wrath and Gluttony. Avarice is synonymous with greed. I just kinda paraphrased it without checking.

  12. How much did this guy's education cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Why do any of the other stranded castaways treat the millionaire's government money as valuable while stuck on an island where no such government can enforce its value?

    Obviously, the castaways believe they will one day be rescued. If they can do odd jobs for Mr. Howell in the meantime and he pays them money for doing those jobs they can keep the money and then spend it once they are rescued. In fact, in the end they were rescued and were able to use the cash that Mr. Howell had paid them to bring him coconuts and shit.

    So all this guy's meanderings about governments and the true value of money are just a load of bullshit.

    1. Re:How much did this guy's education cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful
      not necessarily. If you know ginger will have sex with you for ten dollars then you'd surely be willing to bring the professor a coconut for five dollars even if you knew you would never be rescued, wouldn't you?

      The whole point of the article, which you refute simply by calling it bullshit, is that conventional wisdom such as yours is wrong.

  13. Re:I liked it, but... by Nick+of+NSTime · · Score: 5, Informative
    Within the science of economics, fiat means "having no intrinsic value." So fiat money is paper currency that has no intrinsic value because it is simply representative of something of value. The paper itself has no value. Contrast that with gold coins, which have an intrinsic value outside of the currency (its value in gold).

    The word fiat, IIRC, comes from the Italian word for "in faith." You're taking it on faith that the $20 bill you slap into a stripper's t-back, for example, is actually worth $20, even though you will never see the gold that backs up that $20 bill.

  14. Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by Ars-Fartsica · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I am an avid reader of most of what comes out of the Mises institute, which is often listed at SafeHaven.com, a bearish commentary site.

    Their point is that fiat currencies are subject to abuse as they are not secured to a physical entity which limits its growth.

    Note that for for one hundred years prior to the existance of The Fed, the purchasing value of a dollar was virtually unchanged!

    Post Fed, post gold standard, post secured currency, the value of the dollar's purchasing power has dropped 97%. With Greenspan's current uber-loose credit scheme and our fractioanl reserve (aka fractional safety) banking system, this has vastly increased the amount of money circulating even in the last decade, secured now mostly by residential real estate.

    1. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Returning to the gold standard is ideologically appealing to a certain type of person, but it's tatlly impractical. There's just not enough gold, and new gold isn't being mined fast enough to keep up with the creation of other types of wealth. There are three possible outcomes I can think of if we tried to put the dollar back on a gold standard

      1: Rapid increase in the price of gold - probably the least harmful possibilite, this would "only" cripple certain industries that need gold for it's chemical or electrical properties. Sure, the price of computers and electronics would quadruple, but hey, it's a small price to pay for a currency that's got real backing.

      2: Using several commodities to back the dollar - the problem is that would put the government in the postion of having to fix a ratio between how many dollars can be backed by an ounce of gold versus how many can be backed by a cow. In effect, that means government is setting the price of cows by fiat. Nobody who distrusts government so much that they want a gold-backed currency would find this acceptable!

      3: Massive deflation - There's not enough gold to back all the dollars, so we take most of the dollars out of circulation. Bad bad bad news. If the value of a dollar suddenly went back up to 30 times it's present value, no borrowers would be able to pay off debts they carry now. Virtually every loan would be defaulted. Sayonara, banking industry.

      Now if you combine any of those with a ban on fractional-reserve banking, you have a recipe for economic depression on a scale that hasn't been seen since the plague wiped out a quarter of europe's population.

    2. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by ElForesto · · Score: 2, Informative

      I'm in agreement with you. After all, the 1913 Webster's dictionary defined a dollar thusly (a definition created in 1792 with the creation of the US Coinage Act, I believe): 1. (a) A silver coin of the United States containing 371.25 grains of silver and 41.25 grains of alloy, that is, having a total weight of 412.5 grains. Previous to 1837 the silver dollar had a larger amount of alloy, but only the same amount of silver as now, the total weight being 416 grains.

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    3. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by PaulBu · · Score: 2, Informative

      What is interesting is that younger Greenspan was quite a passionate advocate of the gold standard, see, e.g., his essay in this book (scroll down couple pages to the TOC).

      I was always wondering how could he take his current job... ;-)

      Paul B.

    4. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by general_re · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Well, you're the most insightful AC I've come across in a while, but since I have no mod points, I'll play along with you ;)

      The answer is, IMO, you get both #1 and #3 occurring. There aren't, as you point out, enough ounces of gold in the world to cover the dollars in circulation, nevermind all the other currencies out there. The result is that in order to cover all those dollars, the dollar-denominated price of gold shoots through the roof. All the people who currently own gold suddenly get very, very rich - whoopee for them, but not so good for the rest of us. Of course, you could avoid this by instituting a fractional reserve system, but if you talk to the goldbugs for a very long, you'll soon discover that fractional reserve is a close second on their list of monetary evils, right behind "fiat" paper money, mainly because it doesn't give you that magic immunity from governmental policy that gold is supposed to bring - at the very least, the state can diddle with the reserve requirements and dictate monetary value that way.

      The reason it's bad news for the rest of us is because, contrary to the goldbugs absurd claims that gold is somehow immune to inflationary pressures, gold simply doesn't track consumer prices - i.e., there's no magic inflation-fighting power inherent in a gold currency. You can see this quite easily by comparing consumer prices to the price of gold. Since 1971, when the US finally abandoned the partial gold-standard for good, the dollar-denominated price of an ounce of gold has risen tenfold. The problem is that, if you look at the CPI for the same period, consumer prices have risen only about four-and-a-half-fold since 1971. In other words, the price of gold has far outstripped the price of consumer goods since 1971 - a dollar today will buy you 1/4'th as much "consumer goods" now as it did in 1971, but a dollar today will only buy you one tenth of the gold it bought in 1971.

      What's the result of this failure to track consumer prices, where the value of the currency outstrips the value of the stuff you want to buy with it? Deflation. Massive, sustained deflation, which, for those of you who've forgotten your intro microeconomics, is very very bad. In a hyperinflationary environment, people can't buy stuff because until their wages catch up with prices, they can't afford it. In a sustained deflationary environment, people can't buy stuff because they largely don't have jobs any more - spending gets awfully rare once people realize that, no matter what they want to buy, they're better off not spending it because whatever it is they want to buy, it's going to be cheaper in real terms tomorrow. You're better off just hanging on to your money than you are in trying to use it to, say, build stuff. That's bad, because everyone who has a job here is relying on someone else to part with their money, which gets less and less frequent as deflation mounts. Borrowers, like me with my college loans - heh - are especially screwed, because they borrowed cheap dollars yesterday, but get to pay back their loans with expensive dollars tomorrow. Wheee - sign me up, you betcha. And as a result, anyone with half a brain simply refuses to pay back their loans as deflation gets more and more severe. Fuckem, is the thinking - you're better off in bankruptcy than you are trying to pay off absurdly expensive loans. On the other hand, you might get to see the amusing (!) phenomenon of negative interest rates if deflation becomes bad enough, where your credit card company offers to pay you if you spend money, so as to cut their own losses over time ;)

      No, a gold standard is a recipe for disaster, as you rightly note, and that's just the economics of it - the political end is just as bad. Most of the gold being produced comes from places like Australia and South Africa and Russia. All fince places, full of lovely people, I'm sure, but as an American, I'm not exactly keen on a monetary system that gives the South Africans a say

      --
      ABSURDITY, n.: A statement or belief manifestly inconsistent with one's own opinion.
    5. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by quanta · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What if the CPI doesn't accurately reflect all of the currency debasement (inflation) which has taken place? Over the years, the CPI has been "adjusted" for various political reasons. If you look at the divergence in the CPI/Gold ratio from this point of view, then it seems (to me) to fit the model of what is actually happenning. At any rate, it all ends up in the same nasty mess Real Soon Now.

    6. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by susa-no-o · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm afraid I might be responding to a troll, but I can't help myself. It's my nature, I guess.

      You seriously need to read What Has Government Done To Our Money on the Ludwig von Mises institute web site. That post was so completely mixed up, I don't know where to begin to refute it.

      If we go back to a classical gold standard, the price of gold in dollars will go sky-high. That doesn't matter unless you use gold for something. Yeah, jewelry will become expensive, but so what? It already is. The idea that the price of gold going up will ruin the economy is absurd.

      The price of gold going sky-high won't lead to deflation. In 1973, as you mentioned, the price of gold went through the roof. It didn't cause deflation then.

      Your assertion that gold is prone to inflation because 'a dollar today will buy you 1/4'th as much "consumer goods" now as it did in 1971, but a dollar today will only buy you one tenth of the gold it bought in 1971' is flawed. Under fractional gold backing, the price of gold was being artificially depressed. Once the price of gold was allowed to float, it rose because of market pressures that had been brewing for decades.

      These gold mines in Australia and South Africa aren't producing anywhere near enough gold to cause significant amounts of inflation to a currency on a gold standard. To say that going on a gold standard would give the South Africans a say in how much you can spend at the grocery store is ridiculous. It's an appeal to xenophobia.

      To me, the idea of a gold standard is not idealogically appealing, as the AC said it was to certain people. It's just that I've never heard anyone make a compelling argument against it. I found your post very unconvincing, and until I see a better argument, I will support the gold standard.

    7. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by general_re · · Score: 2, Insightful
      You seriously need to read What Has Government Done To Our Money on the Ludwig von Mises institute web site.

      Been there, done that, bought the t-shirt. If you want to refute me, refute me - don't send me to the library to read something I already read fifteen years ago.

      If we go back to a classical gold standard, the price of gold in dollars will go sky-high. That doesn't matter unless you use gold for something.

      Errr, but we would be using gold for something - a currency, remember? You may not think the price going through the roof matters, but it'll really suck for gold-poor people, which I would bet includes you.

      The price of gold going sky-high won't lead to deflation. In 1973, as you mentioned, the price of gold went through the roof. It didn't cause deflation then.

      Because it wasn't tied to the currency in 1973 - gold and the dollar were delinked in 1971, and by 1973, currencies were free-floating. If the value of gold had gone up as it did, but been used to back the currency, the result would have inevitably been deflation. We would have inevitably, unavoidably experienced deflation in the economy as the currency rose in value faster than the things you would want to buy with it. This is not a particularly controversial position, by the way - you're going to have trouble finding many reputable economists, either on the right or the left, who would argue otherwise. And no, Jude Wanniski is not an economist, reputable or otherwise, before I get a spew of Wanniskisms in response.

      Your assertion that gold is prone to inflation because 'a dollar today will buy you 1/4'th as much "consumer goods" now as it did in 1971, but a dollar today will only buy you one tenth of the gold it bought in 1971' is flawed.

      No, I assure you that those are cold, hard, inescapable facts. But don't take my word for it - go look up the price of gold in 1971 versus today, and make a line graph showing the price during that period. I'm quite serious - doing this is very instructive. Then graph the price of consumer goods as measured by the CPI over that same period. Finally, take your two graphs and put one on top of the other.

      Now, the entire rationale behind gold-backed currencies is that they give long term price stability, so that you can walk into the Men's Wearhouse or wherever and buy a suit with your gold eagle, just like your great-great-grandpappy did back in 18-whatever. But in order for that to be true, the value of gold should - at least roughly - track the value of consumer goods that you'd buy with your gold. It would be remarkable if they matched exactly, so we don't set the bar quite that high, but they should at least be similar in their trends.

      And it doesn't work. It just plain doesn't work - the idea of price stability under a gold currency is plainly, empirically false. Which will become clear as day when you overlay those two graphs - they don't resemble one another at all. Gold goes up, up, up, and so does the CPI, but at a much slower rate than gold does, meaning that gold gained more value than consumer goods did over the last thirty-odd years. Which means, finally, that you would not be paying the same amount today for that suit as you did in 1971. And then the whole reason for having a gold-backed currency in the first place goes right in the toilet, so what's the point to it after that? What justifies the use of gold for currency once that magic aura pops like a cheap yellow balloon?

      Nothing, really. And given the divergence between gold and consumer goods, and the inevitable deflation that would ensue, there's a very good reason not to have done it - most of us would be a hell of a lot poorer than we are now if a gold-backed currency had been in use.

      Just as an aside, gold currencies are not a necessary part of laissez faire economics - it's perfectly acceptable to be a proponent of free markets, even to a libertarian extent, without also requi

      --
      ABSURDITY, n.: A statement or belief manifestly inconsistent with one's own opinion.
    8. Re:Mises Institute rails against fiat abuses by Minna+Kirai · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That doesn't matter unless you use gold for something.

      Check.

      Any money standard backed by a physical commodity will have a detrimental effect on some industry, unless that physical substance had truely no useful qualities beyond scarcity (and durability). More than 100 or so years ago, gold was like that, in that there was nothing practical you could do with it. But with today's modern technology, we've found a way to make productive use of almost everything.

  15. Mind trick values currency by xsupergr0verx · · Score: 2, Funny

    "Republic credits will do"
    "No, they wont!"

    --

    Click here for a free picture of an iPod!
  16. Wow. by BandwidthHog · · Score: 2, Funny

    The next time I use the vending machine downstairs, my mind may well snap.

    --

    Quantum materiae materietur marmota monax si marmota monax materiam possit materiari?
  17. I suspect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    that if Gilligan's Isle was real that money really wouldn't be that wortwhile and the group would very quickly revert to a barter system. And I think we all know what services Ginger and Mary Ann would provide in return for a coconut radio or firewood...

  18. Re:I liked it, but... by MadMorf · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Contrast that with gold coins, which have an intrinsic value outside of the currency (its value in gold).

    Ah, but Gold suffers the same problem as fiat money.

    It only has a value because we agree that it does.

    When you get right down to it the only things that have REAL value are the things required to support life.

    Air. Food. Water. The land required to create food. Sunlight.

    Other than that, everything else is negotiable.

  19. Re:I liked it, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Acutally, fiat is straight from Latin, where it means "let it be." Fiat money is used as money because of governmental decree (or fiat), as opposed to commodity money (e.g. gold) which arises from the market.

  20. Money in MMORPGs by Colazar · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Oddly enough, that made me think of MMORPG economies. The fiat currency of the MMORPG company (gold pieces) is usually horribly inflationary, since more is constantly being added. (Even ignoring duping.) Stable values are invariably found in worthless items that are no longer being created.

    Or maybe it's not so odd...MMORPGs are the most likely exposure /.ers have to widespread currency exchange, I guess.

    --
    He decided to just watch the government, and kind of scale it down to size, and run his life that way. --Laurie Anderson
  21. Mystery solved by nizo · · Score: 3, Funny

    So this is what people with advanced degrees in economics do with their time! I could have been writing papers about Gilligan's Island instead of coding until 3am. Boy did I pick the wrong degree or what????

  22. Re:interesting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Why did he feel the need to write a essay on what is entry-level economics?

    Perhaps for the layman, to whom an economics essay based on Gilligan's Island might be able to convey concepts that might otherwise be ignored (ie, oooh, economics - boring!)

    I thought that the most interesting point was that fiat currencies can exist in the absence of the government that backs them.

  23. Re:interesting by JohnDeHope3 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    You realized that citizens understand these simple economic principles. Yet our governments print fiant currencies like mad. I think it's reasonable for folks to try and do a little educating on the subject. Maybe some of this awareness will trickle up?

  24. Paper Money Is Accepted Because... by Bravo_Two_Zero · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Paper Money Is Accepted Because... ...there is the expectation that it can be more easily exchanged for goods in comparison to a barter system.

    As long as all merchants on the island accept paper currency, it is money. Barter is a hassle, since the medium of exchange is determined in, say 5 pies for 1 shirt. You may have pies and need a shirt, but no one has a shirt to trade. You may have a shirt to trade, but Maryanne ain't bakin' pies today. Money, however, can be used more flexibly.

    Had one island merchant refused to accept paper money, the currency system might have crumbled. Imagine if you went to buy beer, and the merchant said "sorry. we only accept shells." How will the merchant employ shells as currency without a dollar-to-shell exhcnage around the corner?

    Also, a key premise to the show was that they would be rescued. The acceptance of paper currency showed optimism as much as anything. They obviously did not expect to be unable to use the paper currency ouside of the island.

    --


    Amateurs discuss tactics. Professionals discuss logistics.

  25. Re:Money implies poverty by deitel99 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Scarcity != poverty.

    Something is scarce when there isn't enough of it.

    Enough of it for what exactly? To satify (as far as we can tell) infinite human demand.

    As a result it's unlikely any society will ever completely overcome scarcity.

  26. Inflation and Gold by Detritus · · Score: 3, Interesting
    The discovery of the New World by the Europeans created a monetary mess when they brought back large quantities of gold and silver to Europe.

    I always chuckle when I read a story about the riches that could be generated from asteroid mining. Let's assume that I snag an asteroid and recover several thousand tons of gold and platinum. What is that going to do to the market price of gold and platinum?

    --
    Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
  27. Re:I liked it, but... by ahdeoz · · Score: 2, Informative

    no, within the science of economics fiat means "having value determined by: authorization, command, decree, dictate, dictum, edict, endorsement, mandate, ordinance, permission, precept, proclamation, sanction, ukase, warrant" The word fiat comes from the Latin meaning "let it be done" -- borrowed directly from Genesis in the Bible "fiat lux" = "let there be light"

  28. Barring reality. by eadint · · Score: 4, Funny

    if this had really happend.
    any decent thinking man would have, forced thurston howell to sign over his money to them, and then berried the asshole. clubbed of killed all of the other men and tied up ginger and marianne for use as alternate sex slaves.

    1. Re:Barring reality. by tktk · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Good thing you're not stuck on a island with anyone.

      And I really hope 'berried' is just a mispelling. I'd hate to find out that you realy meant something else.

    2. Re:Barring reality. by The+Good+Reverend · · Score: 3, Funny

      How many shells will it cost me for a transation of this post?

  29. what about soldiers buying old dinars? by spook+brat · · Score: 4, Informative

    When I was there the main use I saw for the dinar was selling them to GIs who wanted souvenirs. I figured the rise in price was due to the Iraqis learning what passed as an acceptable price, as well as the Gis realizing that the supply of good-quality bills was diminishing (ie. fixed demand but dwindling supply).

    When I left people in the shops were still selling large quantites of former regime currency for prices ranging from $1 per bill to $20 for a bundle of identical bills. There's a good chance I just wasn't in touch with the local economy, but when the locals are consistently selling their old bills for loose change over the course of a year I have trouble seeing their dead currency as picking up value.

    --
    Travel the Galaxy! Meet fascinating life forms... ...and kill them - http://schlockmercenary.com
  30. Gilligan's Island: A Communist Model by Quash · · Score: 4, Funny

    Only a libertarian would overlook that Gilligan's Island is actually an allegory for a communist society. Odd, you say? Let's discuss: On Gilligan's Island, the Howell's, in all their pomp, bring all their money on a three hour tour. It's value on the island: worthless. But, they drape themselves in their mainland social positions and, as a result, become the buffoons of the show. The Professor controls knowledge on the island. There is no place for religion. Only fact, logic, and above all else, science. The skipper drives the capitalist machine on to the rocks, destroying it and becoming the *real* side-kick of the *supposed* side-kick: Gilligan. Look closely at their relationship. And whose island is it? That's right, it's Gilligan's Island. The everyman. The lowest person in the social order on the boat, that day. Yet, the centre of the island, clad in communist red, once they shipwreck. The commonman now reigns. And Ginger and Mary Anne? Well, even communists like chicks. /. that!

  31. Good timing by Malor · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Heh, it's interesting that this was posted now. I just changed my .sig a few days ago to touch on this topic. I'll repeat it here in case I someday change it:

    "US Dollar, n: A politician's promise to pay nothing on demand."

    This is one of the few government promises you can be ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN will be kept.

    What the article is talking about is, indirectly, that the paper money you use every day has no inherent value, so why on earth would anyone accept it as money? A currency that is unbacked by anything, but is decreed by law to be a medium of exchange, is called a 'fiat currency', because it obtains its value from executive fiat (decree). Basically, the government is forcing you to accept the US Dollar at gunpoint. If you do not, they can arrest you. (seriously, they can!)

    At one time, money was mostly gold, and to a lesser degree, silver. The way it basically worked was this: you, the gold miner (or perhaps, trader with foreign gold currencies), brought your gold to the government mint. In exchange, they gave you a certain number of gold coins, less some percentage to cover the costs of coinage. Gold must be alloyed with other metals, generally copper, to have enough hardness to last through day-to-day wear, and coins were rated based on their 'fineness', or how much actual gold they had in them. Offhand, I think an 8% copper mix was fairly common, and I believe it was often the case that a 1:1 trade was executed; for every ounce of gold you brought in, you received .92 of an ounce, plus .08 ounce of copper, in the form of a coin. The .08 was, in essence, the coinage fee.

    Well, over time, monarchs and governments figured out that they could increase that percentage a very great deal; for every one ounce of gold they took in, they only had to give out, say, half that much gold, if they mixed in enough copper. Historically, this has been a major sign of economic distress, sometimes presaging the complete failure of the government. Henry VIII is often cited as an egregious example; his 'silver' coins were actually copper with a very thin coat of silver. The high points would often wear off, leading to his nickname of 'Old Copper-Nose'. He did terrible damage to England's economy through this practice. There is a specific word for this form of taxation, but I cannot remember it or find it with Google right now. But it is very, very lucrative; the more you debase your currency, the more of the real value in the economy you can extract through deceit. Over the long haul, the strongest economies were always the ones with the strongest currencies, likely due to the fact that more of the money stayed in the hands of the population. A hidden tax is still tax, and taxes are bad, on the whole, for an economy.

    Now, consider what we have now. Instead of anyone doing (a great deal of!) work to mine gold or some other metal out of the ground, instead, the governments of the world can simply wave their hands and create new currency at will. This is absolutely wonderful for the governments in question, because it allows them to extract, at zero cost, value from their own, and other economies. By printing up bills marked '100', they can extract 10 times as much value as from bills marked '10', at zero extra cost. The US is taking huge advantage of this; we are importing vast quantities of goods from all over the globe, and in exchange we're shipping back worthless green paper, to the tune of over a billion dollars a day. This is great for us, but foreign readers... you and your countries are being RAPED. If you think the US is hated now, wait until the world figures out out just how bad it's been rooked.

    As a quick aside, I got my very first 'flamebait' mod awhile back for observing, in a discussion about using ink-jet printers to print money, that of COURSE the government hates that! They don't want anyone muscling in on their turf. Printing fifties on your inkjet and spending them

    1. Re:Good timing by Malor · · Score: 2, Informative

      I just remembered the name for taxation through debasement: segniorage. No wonder I couldn't think of it. Not a common word anymore.

    2. Re:Good timing by jdavidb · · Score: 4, Informative

      Basically, the government is forcing you to accept the US Dollar at gunpoint. If you do not, they can arrest you. (seriously, they can!)

      I'm at least as anti-fiat money as yourself (being an anarcho-capitalist, I do not believe the government should engage in any decrees of value for any item; means of exchange can be developed by the free market), but you are actually wrong on this point. Nobody is required to accept the US Dollar. Unlike taxes, you will not be shot for refusing to particpate. :)

      This is actually a common misunderstanding arising from the phrase legal tender. Check out that link and you'll find the following:

      There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise.
  32. Re:I liked it, but... by ahdeoz · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There isn't much of a market for gold. At $400 an ounce, if this page is right (http://money.howstuffworks.com/question237.htm) then there is only about $4 trillion worth of gold in the world (not just in circulation) hardly enough to cover the national debt. And the bulk of it is kept in hordes (like Ft. Knox), artificially inflating it's price. Gold HAD value because it was declared valuable by fiat by people in power, whether it was Pharoah or Cortes. Lately, gold has gone out of fashion, and not many people desire more than a few ounces of it for decoration. Also, due to the fact that individuals just don't have as much power as they used to, it's hard for anyone outside of Madison Avenue to so dramatically determine something's value.

  33. Libertarian alert.... by magarity · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Within the science of economics, fiat means "having no intrinsic value."
    "The word fiat, IIRC, comes from the Italian word for "in faith."


    Sorry, fiat means the same in economics as in regular English: by degree. It is from a Latin word, 'fier', meaning 'to decree'. It has a slightly negative connotation in English, showing the essay author's bias when he uses it to refer to the fact that U.S. Federal Reserve Notes are legal tender. His bias is completely exposed when we find that the two outside sources referenced are 1. Ludwig von Mises, the economist whose works were used to found Libertarianism and 2. Murray N. Rothbard, the founder of Libertarianism

    The essay is rife with flaws from the mainstream economic point of view; its Libertarian slant is hard to wade through. I hate loaded language like 'fiat money' used to refer to legal tender. Just for fun, I'll address one point. Pointing out all the problems would make a good final exam essay at Bachelor level econ class:

    The what-if example about the Professor deciding to make money leaves completely misses the point. Here's the way that would need to play out: The Prof would have to offer some kind of service or good that at least one of the other residents of the island wanted. In order to perform that service or hand over that good, the Prof would declare that he would only accept genuine ProfLeaves. In order to get ProfLeaves in the first place, the other resident(s) would have to perform a service or provide a good to him. The Prof can simply demand that others accept for no reason but that's not practical.

    This is typically (note: 'typically' is not 'always') how currency gets its start; the government issues the money in return for services and goods from the citizens. The govmt declares that it will be demanding payment in its money as a tax payment. Soon, the money is in general circulation, as somewhere along the line, most of the participants are needing to pay for taxes and the government, as the largest purchaser and provider of new money, can set prices and supply.

    For US Currency, it wasn't always legal tender. Indeed, many states and banks issues their own money. This caused a lot of confusion. Imagine travelling to another state and needing to change your money. A major reason the Europeans adopted a common currency is to make trade so much easier. In the US, to cut out all the confusion of all the competing currencies, the Federal government made Federal Reserve Notes legal tender. This means that you can print up your own JoeBucks but can't legally require anyone else to accept them. If they do, that's fine, if not, you have to pay in Fed Notes.

    1. Re:Libertarian alert.... by magarity · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Legal" tender only because it is forced down the throat of the people, so the government can manipulate the money supply.

      Please, feel free to print up anoncowardbux. If you get enough merchant to sign on, you can have your own money supply. The airlines inadvertantly did this with frequent flier miles. Those things are ubiquitous enough that they act as a type of money these days. There's nothing illegal about it. I bet that if you were determined enough, you could operate your finances completely with FF miles. You'd only need to convert some to deal in Fed Res Notes when its tax time, as the government wants taxes paid in USD. There would be absolutely nothing illegal in doing this. The government does not force legal tender down your throat. The government enforces that other people have to take your legal tender when you want to pay them off. Imagine someone demanding chickens for payment. I sure as heck don't have any chickens. Good thing for me I have dollars and they have to take the dollars instead of demanding whatever the heck they want.

      It happens. They force the people to use money, so that they can then print MORE money to buy whatever they want

      Before the second world war started, the Weimar Republic printed money to buy whatever it wanted. Workers' wives would run from the factories to the shops with wheel barrows rull of money to spend it before it inflated too much (within hours). I assure you, the current US federal government does NOT "print more money to buy whatever they want". There is a controlled budget process.

      Furthermore, the Federal government prints absolutely NO money. The Treasury issues Treasury Notes and Bills, which it sells to the Federal Reserve. It is the Federal Reserve that either buys with cash on hand or has to print more to purchase the T-Bills/Notes. A fine distinction, perhaps too fine for most people to grasp, but the Federal Reserve has whopping loads of cash on hand if the Treasury gets temporarily too happy with printing up new debt. At least, long enough for your local investigative reported to bring it to our attention and put an end to it.

    2. Re:Libertarian alert.... by rollingrock · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Perhaps I've missed the point too, because as far as I can tell you agree with the article on the creation of money.
      According to the article:
      Even if the others wanted to acquire preserved palm leaves, the leaves could not possibly become the most marketable commodity overnight and could therefore not start out as money. If the Professor's leaves become money, it will be through the same barter-based process that made the decorative shells into money.

      And according to you:
      The Prof would have to offer some kind of service or good that at least one of the other residents of the island wanted. In order to perform that service or hand over that good, the Prof would declare that he would only accept genuine ProfLeaves. In order to get ProfLeaves in the first place, the other resident(s) would have to perform a service or provide a good to him.

      It seems to me that what you describe is the barter-based process in the article. The only difference as far as I can tell is that you require that the Prof require ProfLeaves in exchange for his services. But this seems to be clear if the Profs intention is to create a currency. So, how is the article wrong on this point?
  34. Re:What an idiotic article by Malor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Money, per Mises, is the most marketable commodity. If you know you can trade seashells for what you want, you will sell your goods for seashells. If enough people do that, seashells become money. (and past a certain point, a form of money is essentially inevitable, because of the network effect.) The network effect is powerful, and it would be likely to shore up a commodity that somehow lost some of its value, but if it lost enough value, then a new form of money would arise. Belief alone is probably not enough to hold money together.

    Fiat money is a hijacking of that natural process to give the government a great deal more control over the economy and a nearly-infinite ability to tax, without approval or even KNOWLEDGE of the people being taxed. Past a certain point, this will destroy an economy, of course, and cause the failure of the government. And last I checked, central planning of an economy was not a very good idea; the more control goes into the hands of a few people, the less well things tend to run.

    Money needs to be both a store of value and a medium of exhange. We're doing fine on the exchange part, but we're failing dismally on the store-of-value front. See my signature.

  35. My wealth is in bits... by NotQuiteReal · · Score: 2, Interesting
    ... in some computers at Fidelity. Most of it anyhow. I assume they do backups. I don't care what OS they use.

    For some reason, Money reminds me of the observation about calculators that my High School kid just passed on to me "they get to use all the time. Just like in the real world." I've always told my kids, if you face a world without calculators, you've probably been studying the wrong thing anyhow [e.g. you would be better off knowing how to kill things with pointy sticks.]

    Money is like that too; If my bits become worthless, the bullets in my closet will be all of a sudden be worth a lot!

    --
    This issue is a bit more complicated than you think.
  36. Rescue? by giminy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Aren't we ignoring a big point? The folks on Gilligan's Island kept hope that they would eventually be rescued or find a way off the island. Whoever treated the Howells nicely or got a lot of cash would certainly be rich once they set foot back in the United States.

    It's a promisory note, and for all the castaways knew, the US government would still back up their dollars when they returned. In fact, thanks to the Professor's radio and the occassional island visitor, they *knew* the US was still A-OK.

    That's reason enough to horde cash and gold to me...

    --
    The Right Reverend K. Reid Wightman,
  37. Thanks for the spoiler, A$$H*LE!!! by JimmytheGeek · · Score: 3, Funny

    I haven't seen the finale yet.

  38. Re:I liked it, but... by glenmark · · Score: 3, Insightful
    "Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything."

    Which is precisely why Austrian-school economists (the Mises Institute is dedicated to the study of Austrian-school economics) and Libertarians derisively refer to dollars as "fiat currency." Prior to Nixon's 1971 withdrawal of the U.S. from the Bretton Woods agreement, U.S. Dollars WERE redeemable for gold (at least for settlement of large international transactions). Since then, the dollar has been essentially nothing more than a glorified IOU (like all other currencies in the world today).

    This, combined with out-of-control deficit spending and monetary inflation policies (which essentially constitute a hidden tax on the spending power of working folks), is the cummulative result of almost a century of the dominance of Keynsian economics. Nose around the Mises Institute's site a bit more, folks. It should be an eye-opener.
    --
    *** Quantum Mechanics: The Dreams of Which Stuff is Made ***
  39. Re:I liked it, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Within the science of economics, fiat means "having no intrinsic value."

    In the automotive field, as well. I owned a couple of those things.

  40. Sicko by gleman · · Score: 3, Funny

    She wasn't called Lovey for nothing.

  41. Read Mises and Rothbard by dh003i · · Score: 3, Informative
    It is impossible to do experiments in the social sciences, because there are always numerous variables which you cannot control. You also don't understand the nature of reasoning from a priori axioms. We don't need empirical evidence to know that a priori axioms are true. Mises correctly states that all economics follows from the action axiom (and other axioms and postulates): The action axiom states that man acts. Expanding upon this, man acts using various ends to obtain various means, so as to ease and unease felt. You cannot dispute this axiom, for attempting to dispute it is in fact an action itself.

    Your reasoning is positivist, which is debunked junk. Positivism states that we can only know something is true if we have empirical verification, and that everything else is meaningless. This is inherently self-contradictory, for that very statement can only be taken as an a priori axiom. Except, according to positivists, a priori axioms are meaningless tautologies. So, the question is, how do we know that that positivist statement is in fact true? We haven't verified it by experiments, so according to its own declaration, it is a meaningless tautology.

    Austrian economists start from self-evident a priori axioms. These axioms do not need to be empirically verified. Indeed, they cannot be falsified empirically, and can only be illustrated. You cannot falsify the action axiom. You can only illustrate it (indeed, everything you do is an illustration of the action axiom).

    " What makes these axioms self-evident?... They are self-evident because one cannot deny their truth without self-contradiction; that is, in attempting to deny them one would actually, implicitly, admit their truth." -- Hoppe, Hans-Herman
    I would suggest reading the following papers:

    If you want to read more on Austrian economics, the best introduction is Man, Economy, and State with Power and Market. Rothbard, Murray. (MES). Man, Economy, and State with Power and Market was Rothbard's treatise on economics, also intended to be a textbook for introducing students to Austrian economics. Mises, Rothbard's mentor, wrote the great treatise on economics simply called Human Action. Mises, Ludwig von. (HA). Human Action is an extremely important treatise, although it is not as easily understandable as Rothbard's treatise. Rothbard, in his treatise, assumes that readers have much of the knowledge in Human Action, so reading MES is not a substitute for reading Human Action; however, Rothbard corrects Mises on a couple of issues (like monopoly) and expands upon Mises' analysis, exploring new categories.
    1. Re:Read Mises and Rothbard by Hatta · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Thanks for a thoughtful reply. I'll try to find the time to read a couple of those links.

      You also don't understand the nature of reasoning from a priori axioms. We don't need empirical evidence to know that a priori axioms are true.

      Ok, so how do you know what's an a priori axiom and what's not? For thousands of years it was thought that the parallel postulate was thought to be a self-evident a priori axiom. There are things that appear to be self evident, but really aren't. This is why we need emperical verification.

      The action axiom states that man acts. Expanding upon this, man acts using various ends to obtain various means, so as to ease and unease felt. You cannot dispute this axiom, for attempting to dispute it is in fact an action itself.

      Depends on what you mean by action. I could claim that trees act. From an objective viewpoint men and trees both just minimize their free energy, an action by a tree is not fundamentally different from an action by a man. Therefore anything you derive from this action axiom must also hold for trees.

      Your reasoning is positivist, which is debunked junk. Positivism states that we can only know something is true if we have empirical verification, and that everything else is meaningless.

      I didn't mean to argue about the nature of truth, but the nature of science. I'm not sure that even science can tell us for certain that something is true, only that we have a reasonably good model. Scientists make mistakes. When I said economics is philosophy, I did not deny that philosophy can be useful. Indeed, in situations when experimentation is not possible, it's our only way of deriving something approximating the truth.

      This is inherently self-contradictory, for that very statement can only be taken as an a priori axiom. Except, according to positivists, a priori axioms are meaningless tautologies. So, the question is, how do we know that that positivist statement is in fact true? We haven't verified it by experiments, so according to its own declaration, it is a meaningless tautology.

      Very interesting argument, I'll have to ruminate on that one.

      Austrian economists start from self-evident a priori axioms. These axioms do not need to be empirically verified. Indeed, they cannot be falsified empirically, and can only be illustrated. You cannot falsify the action axiom. You can only illustrate it (indeed, everything you do is an illustration of the action axiom).

      Isn't the action axiom therefore emperically verified

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    2. Re:Read Mises and Rothbard by dh003i · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Err, sorry for the sometimes "mean" content of my post. From the quotes, it appears that at times, I was harsh (I didn't mean to be harsh against you, but the positivists).

      Responding to your questions...

      " so how do you know what's an a priori axiom and what's not? For thousands of years it was thought that the parallel postulate was thought to be a self-evident a priori axiom. There are things that appear to be self evident, but really aren't. This is why we need emperical verification. An a priori axiom is a statement which cannot be denied without self-contradiction. In other words, it is "self-evident". This does not mean it is easy to understand, or inherently simply, or that it is psychologically self-evident.

      Also, I believe that the parallel postulate still is a self-evident a priori axiom, in it's appropriate context -- a two-dimensional world, or a three-dimensional world with no warping of the space-time continuum. We have simply discovered that that axiom is not perfectly applicable in this universe. Furthermore, our verstehen of non-euclidian geometry rests upon our understanding of euclidian geometry. Also, non-euclidean geometry also starts from a priori axioms. Of course,there is a link between euclidean geometry and non-euclidean geometry: euclidean geometry is simply a special case of non-euclidean geometry in which there is no space-time warping. Quoting Mises:

      "

      The critics of apriorism refer to the fact that for the treatment Of certain problems recourse to one of the non-Euclidian geometries appears more convenient than recourse to the Euclidian system. The solid bodies and light rays of our environment, says Reichenbach, behave according to the laws of Euclid. But this, he adds, is merely "a fortunate empirical fact." Beyond the space of our environment the physical world behaves according to other geometries.[3] There is no need to argue this point. For these other geometries also start from a priori axioms, not from experimental facts. What the panempiricists fail to explain is how a deductive theory, starting from allegedly arbitrary postulates, renders valuable, even indispensable, services in the endeavors to describe correctly the conditions of the external world and to deal with them successfully."

      "Depends on what you mean by action. I could claim that trees act. From an objective viewpoint men and trees both just minimize their free energy, an action by a tree is not fundamentally different from an action by a man. Therefore anything you derive from this action axiom must also hold for trees."

      I am referring to the praxeological definition of action. To clarify this definition, I refer to Mises:

      "

      Human action is purposeful behavior. Or we may say: Action is will put into operation and transformed into an agency, is aiming at ends and goals, is the ego's meaningful response to stimuli and to the conditions of its environment, is a person's conscious adjustment to the state of the universe that determines his life."

      Action is clearly distinct from reaction, which is what you're discussing when you talk about trees. Furthermore, human reflexes, unconscious breathing, blinking, digestion, and the beating of the heart are reaction.

      " I didn't mean to argue about the nature of truth, but the nature of science. I'm not sure that even science can tell us for certain that something is true, only that we have a reasonably good model. Scientists make mistakes. When I said economics is philosophy, I did not deny that philosophy can be useful. Indeed, in situations when experimentation is not possible, it's our only way of deriving something approximating the truth."

      For this, I suggest the aforementioned Socials Sciences and Natural Sciences. Science too rests on some a priori axioms. Most basically, causality. We cannot empirically verify causality. If you don't already posses

  42. wrong... by dh003i · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Read The Case for a Genuine Gold Dollar. Rothbard, Murray. and What Has Government Done to Our Money? Rothbard, Murray. Alternatiely, perhaps the best way is to allow the free market to choose it's money. See The Determination of the Purchasing Power of Money. Mises, Ludwig von.

    1. There are substitutes for gold. Obviously, if gold were used as money, it would be uneconomical to use it as computer parts.

    2. As Rothbard explains, a "commodity basket" is extremely flawed and utopian in the worst sense: it simply cannot work.

    3. You do not understand the nature of money. Any given quantity of money is just as good as any other quantitity of money. The commodity chosen as the monetary unit will simply scale to the appropriate value. You also subscribe to typical fallicious beliefs about "deflation". Deflation is not falling prices (or rising purchasing power of the dollar). Deflation is a decrease in the monetary base; inflation is an increase in the monetary base. Printing out dollar bills is inflation. Burning them is deflation.

    4. No Austrian who favors eliminating fiat money and replacing it with a commodity-backed standard (gold) supports fractional reserve banking.

  43. fallacies by dh003i · · Score: 2, Interesting
    You don't know what you're talking about. Simply stating that we're better off now -- a time when we have fiat money -- than we were when we didn't have fiat money does not demonstrate that fiat money is superior to gold. The sheer idiocy of a such a statement makes me wonder how you could state it (obviously ignoring improving technology). Yes, we are better off now than we were a hundred years ago. But that doesn't demonstrate the superiority of fiat money.

    Are we better off (to the extent that we're better off) because of fiat money? That is, if not for fiat money, we would be worse off today.

    Are we better off (to the extent that we're better off) despite fiat money? That is, if not for fiat money, we would be better off today.

    Are we better off (to the exten that we're better off) neither because of nor despite fiat money? That is, whether or not there was fiat money, we would be the same as we are today.

    I would suggest you read Facts and Counterfacts in Economics. Hülsmann, Jörg Guido.

  44. Diff-eq, etc. are common in Economics by garyebickford · · Score: 4, Interesting

    There's enough math and computational expertise required in advanced economics to keep any math geek satisfied. It's not a coincidence that large numbers of Physics PhD's are working on Wall Street these days. The cookbook economics you hear on the tube is not the economics being done in research today; it's the economics that politicians and TV newshosts can understand, and communicate in soundbites.

    As you alluded, much of basic Econ can be described as a bunch of rules-of-thumb and ad hoc arguments, of the sort, "If we ignore all these things here, and assume that they are constant, we can pretend that this here happens." The problem is that economic systems are complex systems (analogous to the brain's neural network), and can't be modeled well using "billiard ball" physics models. Until recently the only alternative has been to use statistical, "gas law" models and other simplifications of the systems.

    Example: a small town may have 1000 citizens, 200 businesses, and perhaps 500 formal and informal groups/organizations. Each of those individuals and organizations has over 1000 'inputs' and 1000 'outputs' - relations with each other and outside entities, that may be considered as economic factors. (Relations may be financial or other.) You have a social network with something like 10^13 relations/interconnections. And that's just a small town or neighborhood.

    I'm embarking on a PhD in Econ shortly, after many years in computing, and my math skills are being stretched like they haven't in a long time. Differential equations is a prerequisite for several of the introductory graduate level courses, along with linear algebra and a bunch of statistics and game theory. Thomas Bayes' much appreciated Bayesian Theorem probability is a tool of economists. Vilfredo Pareto (Pareto-optimal" game outcomes) was an economist. Many elements of modern statistics, probability and game theory were developed by economists.

    The problem faced by economists has been not that it was too simple, but that the systems under study have been too complex to delve into very deeply until both the mathematical tools and the computational power became available. It was necessary to drastically simplify the models in order to get any sense at all. And, of course, there is a strong philosophical and social-studies thread throughout economics.

    Nowadays there is a strong thrust into new approaches to Economics, including complex adaptive systems, agent based systems, Neuroeconomics, Experimental Economics (vis. Vernon Smith, 2002 Bank of Sweden "Nobel" and social network economics.

    Often in addition to training and/or experience in biology, physics, systems theory and other disciplines, these approaches require a good understanding of differential equations, comfort in manipulating long chains of partial derivatives, and working with multi-layered irregular networks. Interestingly, even fluid dynamics equations are applicable in some cases.

    --
    It's easier to be a result of the past, but more fun to be a cause of the future! http://www.spacefinancegroup.com/
  45. And more important than which one is... by JudgeFurious · · Score: 4, Funny

    The fact that (And I know it's rude but it's the truth) both of them are in posession of the only "currency" that would mean anything to the 4 men on the island. It's between their legs.

    Think about it. Gilligan, Mr Howell, the professor and skipper are all going to be interested in one thing before long and honestly, they were probably interested in that prior to ever getting shipwrecked. All four of them hadn't fantasised about banging Ginger or Mary Ann from the moment they stepped onto the boat. Once they get shipwrecked and they've been on the island for a couple weeks it's going to be a question of who's getting laid and not much else is going to matter.

    Now obviously Howell is an old dude and his wife is there so he's going to be on a short leash. He'll keep up appearances but you know he's thinking he could bag one of these chicks if he could get away from the old ball and chain. Then again this was before Viagra so maybe not. If this took place today though Thurston would be knocking the bottom out of Ginger. I'm sure he'd go for Ginger. He's rich, she's famous. That's just the way it works.

    But say Thurston hadn't the benefit of the little blue pill and was out of the mix. Then you've got Gilligan, the professor, and the skipper vying for two women. One of them is going to end up with the professor obviously because he's the only one of the three available guys who's both height-weight proportionate and not a complete idiot. Ginger probably goes for him and has little trouble staking claim to him.

    This leaves Mary Ann to choose between the fat old sailor or the retard. Not a very appealing proposition but she doesn't have to make the choice. Niine weeks and a couple dozen screw ups from Gilligan later he goes looking for coconuts one day and mysteriously doesn't return. The skipper was of course fishing on the other side of the island when it happened and knows nothing about it. In truth though he buried his "little buddy" in a shallow grave so he could claim the sole remaining available piece of tail on the island.

    --
    Appended to the end of comments you post. 120 chars.
    1. Re:And more important than which one is... by Psion · · Score: 2, Funny

      Hold on a second. The Professor isn't exactly an intellectual slouch. I doubt he'd have trouble deducing the fate of the skinny screw-up and it wouldn't take him long to realize that he's got something the Skipper quite possibly wants: Ginger. Now what does he do? Since the Skipper represents the closest thing to the authorities the island has, he certainly can't go that route, so he has to take his personal defense into his own hands. He can kill the Skipper outright and then lay claim to both Ginger and Mary Ann, or he can compromise the Skipper in some way so that the old sailor can no longer even consider causing the academic any harm.

      Since the former is risky, considering the Skipper is probably a superior tactician, I'd see the Professor taking the latter route. He could easily build a still and turn the ruined captain of the S.S. Minnow into a lush, but given Jonas Grumby's history in the Navy, he just might have a clue how to operate such a device on his own and the Professor would still be at risk. Instead, Roy Hinkley must fall back on his skills as a chemist and botanist. He must create narcotics that require his expertise to produce on an on-demand basis. By making the Skipper chemically dependent upon him, the Professor now has a commodity the Skipper requires and a tight little monopoly upon the supply; thus ensuring that Jonas Grumby will comply with his bidding. Easy access to Mary Ann is then a given, and Professor Hinkley can then set about populating the island with intelligent progeny.

  46. And you find one, once and a while by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ron White from the Blue Collar Comedy Tour did a bit on this, talking about coupons at a fair to buy beer. There are places like that which will not take you cash, you have to go buy their little fake currency and use it, the vendors won't take dollars directly.

    I've been in situations where I won't take money either. I've done service for service trades, my computer skills for some skill they have. I'm not interested in cash, I want them to do something for me. I mean I suppose realisticly I'd do it for enough money, but as a pratical matter I don't want dollars, I want labour.