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After the X Prize
rscrawford writes "'Robert Bigelow, chief of Las Vegas-based Bigelow Aerospace, is apparently setting higher goals for private spaceflight endeavors with America's Space Prize, a $50 million race to build an orbital vehicle capable of carrying up to seven astronauts to an orbital outpost by the end of the decade,' according to Space.com. Anyone think it'll happen?"
Having something go up to the edge of space and back is relatively easy compared to going into orbit then coming back down again.
For the technically minded, here's a short article with the specifics.
More details available from SpaceFlightNow, which is actually a re-print of an Aviation Week & Space Technology article.
IMHO, the folks over at JP Aerospace have the best chance at the prize. The big unknown for them of course is whether or not they will be able to assemble (and fly) the super-sized airships into LEO.
Orbital is going to take some serious doing beyond what Rutan et al have come up with.
Armadillo has a lot better shot at it than Virgin.
Seastead this.
actually, anyone at a latitude of 51.6 deg or less can easily reach ISS. latitudes greater than that have to waste propellant to decrease their inclination. since the russians are an integral part of the ISS assembly, the smallest inclination was chosen that would still allow them to reach orbit efficiently. otherwise, the station would most certainly be at a lower inclination to maximize the boost you get from the earth's rotational velocity.
I really don't think that the cash is nearly the motivation that you think it is. The $10 million prize is not nearly enough to cover the costs that many of the top contenders have spent so far. I think the main motivation is just to do, and the reward is in the act, not the money. Also, I think that the reason that so many people are trying for this prize is not really because they saw the chance at a payday, but instead, the X-Prize sparked the idea of private space travel which had been sitting idle in most of the minds of the top contenders.
Now, I normally don't exhalt the Russians but one thing they have definately done right was in sticking with capsules.
"It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance." - Thomas Sowell
Looks like we need a new moderation category - "Understatment".
(grin)
Honestly, reentry isn't THAT bad. The shuttle has it particularly difficult because it's designed for a very shallow reentry angle. As I understand it, the military demanded a large cross-range ability so that the shuttle could go up, perform spy stuff over the USSR, and hit the ground again after one orbit.
A steeper angle requires less shielding. The idea (as I understand it) is to accept a faster increase in heat buildup in exchange for a faster rate of deceleration. Once the craft is deep enough in the atmosphere and has shed enough speed, the atmosphere will actually begin to cool the surface.
The Apollo missions used a simple and inexpensive shield that consisted of an ablative epoxy/silicon material. Such a shield could easily be made replaceable after every flight. The shuttle's tiles OTOH, are supposed to be non-ablative and reusable. However, the number of tiles that they ended up needing resulted in very expensive post-flight inspections.
Honestly, the tech isn't that hard. The early space-modules were nothing more than some sheet metal, a space suit, a few maneuvering jets, and a heat shield. The early Mercury capsules even used a simple, non-ablative shock plate that pushed the atmospheric plasma around the edges of the capsule, preventing heating of the craft itself.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
The submission was a little sparse on the info, and since I've been following Bigelow Aerospace for a while, I feel obligated to share some more info on it. First off, there's an article with better photographs available here, and a press release here. The founder Robert Bigelow was also the founder of Budget Suites of America, and is applying a lot of the cost-cutting tricks he learned from his previous contracting experience to the aerospace industry. He licensed the Transhab technology from NASA (which had previously had its funding cut), and is subcontracting for things like life support from other companies who already have systems running.
The inflatables themselves (photograph here)are quite interesting, with a docking mechanism designed to attach with either a Russian Soyuz, a Chinese Shenzhou, and/or whatever vehicle comes out of the aforementioned America's Space Prize. A one-third size prototype of the inflatable module will be launched on the maiden flight of SpaceX's Falcon V rocket, which is itself a very interesting vehicle (~3000kg into LEO for $12 million, and the first orbital vehicle designed to be man-rated since the space shuttle). The first full-size inflatable habitat will be up by 2008, and it's planned to have a crew by 2010.
What's exciting about this is that the inflatable modules appear to be designed, built, and have undergone some preliminary tests. The outsides of the modules have withstood projectile impact tests fairly well. Pretty much all that needs to happen now is for them to undergo further tests and be launched. Bigelow's use of multiple contractors for the same part will allow him to ramp up production if there's a demand for it, and sell the inflatable modules for ~$100 million each to whoever wants them.
Regarding the prize itself, I'd actually be quite interested to see if somebody ends up just designing a descent capsule and sticks it on a Falcon V.
Now, I normally don't exhalt the Russians but one thing they have definately done right was in sticking with capsules.
I forgot to address this point. The Russians DID build a winged craft: The Buran. Their one design mistake was the choice to make it cargo capable like the US shuttle. If they'd built something just large enough for people, and left the cargo to the Protons and Energias, they might still be flying them today.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
I'm not sure if the Falcon V could be made man-rated, mind you. It's a smidge too small for a reasonable sized manned capsule. I'm imagining that whatever comes after the Falcon V will at least try to preserve the man-rated option, however.
See, the problem is that a explosive flight termination system is nearly required.
As far as the current licensing regeme is concerned, the lives of the passengers are not important. What is important is the possibility of a worst case impact on populated areas. You basicly need to assume that every steering device on your craft will conspire against you and send it hurtling towards the nearest populated area.
So, Black Armadillo isn't allowed to have a parachute in case the engines run out of juice/fail/etc. Because they have to assume that it will deploy in conspiracy with the steering system, all at the worst possible moments, and take it into populated area.
So if it fails, it pancakes, as one of the recent videos shows. The next one has a streamer, which should give the passengers more options for not becoming hot man-salsa.
It's going to be decades before these things will be loosened, I fear.
Gentoo Sucks
The deadlines are necessary due to the nature of the prize.
Most likely, this $50 million isn't all being put in a bank somewhere to wait for somebody to win. (I know the X-Prize was done this way, at least, but I haven't really read about this one, so I could be wrong here.) Instead, they basically buy an insurance policy. The insurance company cranks some numbers, decides that there's a (say) 20% chance that somebody will win, and charges $10 million. If somebody actually wins, the insurance company pays out. A deadline is required, otherwise the insurance company couldn't get involved and the organizers would be forced to front the full amount of the prize.
On another note, it's not evil to encourage people to take risks to meet a worthy goal. If you don't like danger, stay home.
Mod down posts with a "Free Mac Mini/iPod" sig, they're spam!
Did you know that Scaled Composites supplied the aeroshell for this rocket?
It certainly appears as though this was the seed for a lot of what is around us at the moment.
Heres a link with lots of info, pics and a movie for the DCX
http://media.armadilloaerospace.com/DCX/
liqbase
Going to space and back in a single stage vehicle is extremely difficult because it requires it to be almost completely made of fuel, leaving little mass for thermal protection system, recovery gear, etc (payload?).
Doing it in a multistage vehicle is difficult because it then becomes much harder to reuse it. Even if you ignore the cost issues of throwing away hardware you really want reusability because otherwise every launch you are using brand new hardware with unknown problems. It's hard to get reliability this way.
A lot of the people looking at CATS (Cheap Access To Space) seem to agree that an "assisted" single stage vehicle is the way to go. Starting at high altitude may not give the vehicle significant savings in kinetic and potential energy but other factors such as drag, pressure losses and structural loads can make a very big difference.
There are several promising designs for an assisted SSTO. One example is is Spacevan 2008. It seems to fit the profile of the America's Space Prize very well. The big kite may seem a bit odd but don't be fooled - it's not one of those "designs" that space crackpots keep promoting. It was designed by veteran space engineer Len Cormier. He is one of those people who really know what they are talking about. It's actually a pretty conservative design using mature and proven technology.
Stop worrying about the risks of nuclear power and start worrying about the risks of not using nuclear power.