Slashdot Mirror
After the X Prize
rscrawford writes "'Robert Bigelow, chief of Las Vegas-based Bigelow Aerospace, is apparently setting higher goals for private spaceflight endeavors with America's Space Prize, a $50 million race to build an orbital vehicle capable of carrying up to seven astronauts to an orbital outpost by the end of the decade,' according to Space.com. Anyone think it'll happen?"
I wonder if Scaled will be able to tackle this too. I sure hope so, they've been an inspiration so far. I realize it's more than twice the amount of people, and they'd have to go much higher up to get to an orbiting station, but they've come so far with this competition.
-Jesse
Nothing says "unprofessional job" like wrinkles in your duct tape.
That you're going to need a rocket big enough to get your spaceplane into orbit, but small enough to not have to be tossed off into the atmosphere every time. This is a *very* big problem.
The Boeing Delta II rocket (one of the smallest we have) can launch about 4.9 metric tons into LEO, and goes for about 10 million per launch (IIRC). Its safety record over the past decade is such that it could probably be man rated. Now if you figure seven astronauts at 100 kilos each (these are BIG boys with their space suits! ;-)), then you've got about 700 kilos in cargo. If you can fit a useful craft in the remaining 4.2 metric tons, you'd have a very inexpensive launch solution.
Perhaps something like this could be scaled down rather than a flyable craft? Although I am kind of partial to lifting bodies. Bring on the Dynasoar!
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
I think this is a great idea, but is the prize money enough? NASA should pony up another 50 mil -- they could use the help delivering supplies to the space station, and it's a no-lose proposition for them.
Rutan has already talked about going orbital, and there is a lot of buzz about this subject from all sorts of people. It is a good time to be alive!
Should they not be allowed to do it? If scientific research were limited to government funded research facilities then it is likely that research would just become even more of a battleground for politics than it is now.
At least consumers can decide whether or not this will continue, instead of voters. I would think that consumers would make a more educated decision, especially considering the cost of a ticket.
Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
Isn't this obvious? I'll bet of you scratch the surface- this is an award from the Casino History. Hoping to draw even more clients, the outpost will be a small hotel, complete with casino, in Geocentric orbit above Nevada, with your trip comped on a $5 million buy in of chips....
There is some seriousness to this though - what are the legal implications for something in orbit? Las Vegas is a gambling capital partly because it is one of the few places in the US where casino gambling is legal. Would US law naturally extend to a private station in orbit? I doubt it (though IANAL). Gambling is just the beginning if you can get a blank slate on law by being in orbit - absolutely anything goes. Forget Las Vegas or Amsterdam.
Jedidiah.
Craft Beer Programming T-shirts
Yea, forget rendevous, and 7 passengers, etc. I'd like to see prizes for non-government organizations for:
1. Achieving orbit. Say at least 16 revs to make it intresting. That's about 1 day in LEO.
2. Achieving orbit with a manned capsule and bringing him back down safely.
In the last interview I saw with Burt Rutan, he said that he's at the same stage on an orbital vehicle as he was for SS1 a few years ago. I seem to remember that he said that he was expecting to start construction in 2008/2009.
What will be interesting to see if they can come up with a vehicle that could rendevous with the ISS; the orbit really was poorly chosen for jeverybody except for Russians.
Reaching ISS could seriously be the next challenge.
myke
Mimetics Inc. Twitter
From source inside group - He's been hiring scientist types instead of engineer types, and having them work on demos instead of focusing on a well thought-out plan to build flight hardware. Too bad, since he has enough money to buy people capable of making him what he wants. Scaled has proven that you just need to throw money at smart space tech interested engineers to build real hardware, since all the tech needed has been in textbooks since the 70's. In-fighting scientists do not build spacecraft, they build grant proposals...
This is probably why he's decided to stop trying to build his own launch platform and see if someone else will make him one. Of course, once cheap transport is available, they'll be plenty of other hotel groups looking into orbital habitats, groups have been playing with that idea for decades. Again, too bad for Bigelow, since he could have gotten there first.
That's exactly what happened with early Jet Liners. It didn't stop air travel then, and I doubt it would stop space travel now. It would pretty much have to be a possible setback that should be expected and planned for.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Death didn't scare away or stop many of the early aviators or test pilot's after WWII. Almost all of the streets in Edwards Air Force Base are named after test pilots killed in accidents.
People dying may put off a few more people in this day and age, but it won't scare away the ones who believe in pushing manned space flight forward or those who want the adrenaline rush.
Now, if one of the rockets or space craft fall onto a city, that will affect private space flight programs (Maybe they'll just outsource it to India...).
BTW -- read the backup material. This is a really cool story.
What happens if 10 years from now we have a private space station (or, horror of horrors 2 or 3 stations) with tourists going up and still the ISS isn't completed? How are all of us going to feel about all of those tax dollars we're pouring into the shuttle and ISS now?
Wouldn't it be better take a couple of billion right now and set up a series of prizes that take us from suborbital all the way to mars? You could stretch it over 20-30 years, and make the prizes high enough to keep the independents in the game. Isn't this better than putting all of our tax money in one basket and hoping the basket holds up?
Make chaos work for you, not against you.
That's ridiculous, you can't have one rule for the decade and the other rule for the millenia. No consistency. Decades are part of a century which is part of a millenia. They're all related!
It starts on 00 or 01, take your pick.
Nerds that think school = reality believe it begins at 00, realists too blind to see the logic of the nerds think it begins at 01.
As far as I'm concerned, a significant change in the digits = new start point, ie:
1999 to 2000 =
end of decade
end of millenia
end of year
Some would say that it's a year short of a millenia as mankind surely didn't start at year 0 when Christ died. I can see that point of view, but I don't have to agree with it. This is why:
a) go back in time and prove it didn't start at 0. It's not like 2000 year old historical records are accurate. They don't even agree on Christ's actual birthdate!
b) Assuming it WAS 0, we write off a year from the get go to make calculation easier? Does this mean the universe will implode? I think not. Einstein taught us that time was relative.
Feel free to state your opinion, which you may have freely, even if it is wrong.
NASA has announced its own intentions to offer cash prizes for private space accomplishments through its Centennial Challenges office, which may offer prizes that range from $250,000 to $30 million. Potential challenges could include soft lunar landings and asteroid sample return missions, NASA officials have said. This seems like it would have been a bit of a better story then this asshole looking to find a partner for his inflated space hotels.
By offering the $50 million prize he is essentially forcing someone else to do research and development. He already promised to dump $500 million into the space hotel project, so he really can't afford to put another couple of hundred million into something else.
Really, the things holding us back from manned space exploration is lack of a reason to do it. If someone found out that you could manufacture CPUs that are twice as fast by doing it in zero-G, I'm sure Intel would have a space station within the decade. If you could make toothpaste that would get your teeth extra white while giving fresh breath that lasts for twelve hours by doing it in zero-G, P&G would have a space station within the decade. But none of these things are true. All the reasons for sending men into space mostly come down to "humans have an innate drive to explore", etc. It's true but that doesn't motivate investors to put together the many millions of dollars needed to do this. That's why governments do it: taxpayers have such low expectations of getting something in return for their tax dollars that governments can build space shuttles, the Big Dig, etc.
Of course, pretty soon we will have to have more manned missions to Mars to figure out what's going on over at Union Aerospace's secret research facility.
they *just* chose a physics engine (saw this press release today)
Norrköping, Sweden - 27th of September, Meqon, an up and comer in the physics middleware industry, announced they have been selected by 3D Realms as the physics engine provider for their long awaited game Duke Nukem Forever.
I think it's quite possible to assume that this new prize will come and go before DNF will be on the shelves...
Seriously?!?! The socialist nanny-state has an obligation, nay, a sacred duty to protect them from themselves! We shouldn't ever go into space until the risk is less than 1 in 55 trillion that anyone will be injured. Except of course for highly trained astro-bureaucrats who navigate the proper NASA departmental absurdities.
Thank you, and give me my welfare check.
It would be a shame to award the prize to some old technology that doesn't build on the inherent economies of the reusable first stages being developed by the Ansari X-Prize contenstants.
As Robert Truax told me, people keep studying what the optimal number of stages for an orbital launch vehicle should be and they keep discovering the answer is "2". The first stage is always lower exhaust velocity and cheap per kg. The second stage is always higher exhaust velocity and more expensive per kg.
The ideal first stage derived from the Ansari X-Prize entrants would be one that is cheap to:
Rutan's technology doesn't really fill the bill here because fabricating hybrid rockeet motors is expensive compared to refueling. Also its unlikely his aerodynamic body scales up as cheaply as does simple tankage with vertical takeoff.
As it turns out, John Carmack just reported his team has reached probably the most critical milestone for such a first stage by demonstrating a scaled up version of their methanol/H2O2(50%) mixed monoprop engine.
This could be the really big deal -- not just for manned spaceflight but for cheap access to space generally.
Seastead this.
Funny, that's the same thing they said about the X prize... the problem is too big for such a meager prize. Fortunately it's not really about the prize money.
If it was easy, everyone would be doing it.
-=sig=-
The reason is simple: Burt Rutan has extensive experience building things that could be applied to a real spacecraft.
Remember the Delta Clipper? Or the aborted X-33 project? They may not be complete successes but it gave Scaled Composites the learning experience that could lead to a cheap reusable Low Earth Orbit space vehicle.
By the way, there is an easy way to do this: launch it on top of a modified 747-200B. Given the large number of 747-200B's that have been retired in the last 3-4 years Scaled Composites could cobble parts from several such 747's and build a launch plane with a powerful rocket engine in the back of the plane, which will allow it to fly steep climbs up to 50,000 feet. Mounted on the top of this modified 747-200B would be a small lifting-body type space vehicle with a small fuel tank beneath that will provide enough fuel to reach LEO with a load equivalent of 6-7 astronauts aboard.
The launch profile would go something like this:
1. The 747 with the space vehicle on the back takes off like a regular 747.
2. Once it reaches 28,000 to 30,000 feet, the rocket engine on the 747 is fired, allowing the 747 to climb at a 45-50 degree angle up to 50,000 feet.
3. At around 52,000 feet, the space vehicle with its attached fuel tank is launched as the 747 approaches the top of its climb.
4. While the 747 falls away, the space vehicle's own rocket engine will use the fuel from the attached fuel tank to reach LEO, jettisoning the tank when it reaches orbit.
5. The space vehicle will return to Earth in a Space Shuttle-style re-entry and land on a conventional runway.
There were serious studies during the 1980's for such a concept by (I believe) Boeing, and if any that could make this concept become reality at a reasonable cost it is Scaled Composites.