Slashdot Mirror
Successful Earthquake Prediction
An anonymous reader writes "Although a touch late, it appears that today's earthquake was successfully predicted by the Keilis-Borok team. (The prediction was covered previously on Slashdot.) Purists might argue that the gap between both distance and magnitude is too large to count in favor of the prediction, but this non-geologist is certainly impressed. Here's hoping they continue to receive funding."
The prediction is for a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake to occur between January 5 and September 5, 2004, within a 12,440 sq. miles area of southern California ...
Last time I checked, this was called an educated guess.
everyday is another shooter.
The Agence France-Presse says otherwise, sadly.
It is true that seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok predicted a quake around this magnitude for this year. This quake missed his six-month timeframe by just over three weeks. And it is notably further south.
That would still be a little too close for coincedence for me, except the day before the deadline for the earthquake to occur Dr. Keilis-Borok announced the prediction was based on false data.
So was he covering his tail and reputation back then at the expense of being a little too north and a little too early?
We'll have to wait to see what he says, I guess.
justen
Ummmmm...no.
This isn't a success. The earthquake today was on a completely different segment of the fault, and was significantly weaker than the prediction, not to mention over three weeks after the generous nine month time period.
Don't get me wrong, I like the research, they've had some surprising success in the past, and I hope they continue. But even by the generous error margins allowed for primitive earthquake predictions, they're wrong this time...and if you asked them I'm sure they'd say the same thing.
And yes, I am a geologist.
As another geologist, I agree.
Not sure where the submitter got his information, but this earthquake isn't even related to KB's prediction *at all*. This quake occured 250 miles northwest of KB's proposed area. In fact, it fell within the range of the area for the quake he predicted last year (the San Simeon earthquake).
However, I would be willing to wager that this earthquake *is* the one that the researchers involved in the Parkfield Experiment have been waiting for, only 11 years overdue. Especially since that segment of the S.A.F. through Parkfield has consistantly produced M6.0's or greater roughly every 22 years from 1857 to 1966.