Successful Earthquake Prediction

An anonymous reader writes "Although a touch late, it appears that today's earthquake was successfully predicted by the Keilis-Borok team. (The prediction was covered previously on Slashdot.) Purists might argue that the gap between both distance and magnitude is too large to count in favor of the prediction, but this non-geologist is certainly impressed. Here's hoping they continue to receive funding."

Comments

Re:One quake too north, too late?

[Txiasaeia]

Well, we *are* talking about huge underground plates here, not the weather. I mean, come on, they can't even get the *weather* right where I'm from! Even though he missed it by three weeks, I'm still impressed. Hopefully this line of research can be focused so that scientists can say "Get the hell out of SF before 5pm tonight!" and save some lives, you know?

Prediction NOT correct...

[mOoZik]

Let's see...

1) They predicted the earthquake would be in the 9 months between Jan 5 and Sept. 5. Despite the giant "margin of error," they were off by almost a month. A prediction should not span nine months and still be wrong.

2)They predicted a magnitude of 6.4 or greater: the earthquake was 6.0. Again, they were wrong.

3)They predicted it would be within a 12,440 sq. miles area of southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley (San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial Counties) and eastern San Diego County. It seems to me that the epicenter of today's quake was located north of the vast area in which they predicted the earthquake.

To me, this is nothing more than a coincidence. They were off on all three and the mere fact that it took place in the state should not be inferred that it was a valid prediction.

Regardless, methods get better all the time. I am not opposed to this particular prediction method, just a bit annoyed that the slashdot submitter believes it proves the model to be true.

Re:One quake too north, too late?

[Lars T.]

Any warning along the lines of "Get the hell out of SF before 5pm tonight!" would probably cost more lives in the ensuing chaos than it would save from the earthquake.