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Successful Earthquake Prediction
An anonymous reader writes "Although a touch late, it appears that today's earthquake was successfully predicted by the Keilis-Borok team. (The prediction was covered previously on Slashdot.) Purists might argue that the gap between both distance and magnitude is too large to count in favor of the prediction, but this non-geologist is certainly impressed. Here's hoping they continue to receive funding."
Ummmmm...no.
This isn't a success. The earthquake today was on a completely different segment of the fault, and was significantly weaker than the prediction, not to mention over three weeks after the generous nine month time period.
Don't get me wrong, I like the research, they've had some surprising success in the past, and I hope they continue. But even by the generous error margins allowed for primitive earthquake predictions, they're wrong this time...and if you asked them I'm sure they'd say the same thing.
And yes, I am a geologist.
If God had had a computer it would have taken him 7 months to create the earth...if he even bothered to do it at all.
Hopefully this line of research can be focused so that scientists can say "Get the hell out of SF before 5pm tonight!" and save some lives, you know?
Of course, with such little time between warning and the real event we'd likely have as many (or more) injuries and deaths as a result of the rush out the Oakland bridge or the panic that would ensue.
Having lived in an Earthquake prone state (Alaska) and somewhere near Tornado Alley (Kansas) I have been through both events many times and I would gladly take Earthquakes over tornados. Earthquakes come and go with very little warning so there isn't much you can do but run under a door or hide under a table. They're also very short lived and don't usually do too much damage. Tornados, OTOH, can be predicted to some extent leaving you huddled in fear for hours while a major storm cell passes overhead. And if you're unfortunate enough to have that cyclone of death drop on you-you are guarunteed to lose everything you own and maybe (although it seems unlikely these days) even your life.
Today was a gentle reminder of home for me today. I was on the phone with a guy in Cali when the quake hit. I can't remember the last time I had to tell someone "Hold on, earthquake.......... ok."