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Hannu H. Kari Gives The Internet 2 More Years

erick99 writes "Dr. Hannu Kari says the Internet will will collapse in 2006 as reported in an article on ARS Technica. Yes, this is the same Dr. Kari who has predicted doom before, but it is still an entertaining read and there is more than a grain of truth in his reasoning." Reader Titney writes adds a couple of excerpts from an article on NewsRoom Finland: "The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold. ... When the internet is no longer operational for business purposes, one has to time warp back 10 to 20 years and make do without information networks"

11 of 465 comments (clear)

  1. He's not too terribly inconsistent though... by BaldGhoti · · Score: 5, Informative

    For those who didn't RTFA (like the editor), he was indeed predicting the end of the internet back in 2001. However, he was predicting that there were five years left. So he's been consistent on 2006.

    Not that he's, yanno, sane or anything, but at least he's consistent.

    --
    [insert witty sig here]
  2. Re:All together now... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Here's a citation for that quote. The Internet. On the edge of collapse since 1981.

  3. Re:If Hannu H. Kari dosn't work for... by geeber · · Score: 3, Informative

    This new collapse will probably look much like the last one that was predicted...

  4. Bob Metcalfe also predicted this in 1997 or 1998 by TheCrig · · Score: 2, Informative

    And it didn't happen then, either.

    --
    -- Jim Crigler In 1937, I began, like Lazarus, the impossible return. -- Whittaker Chambers
  5. Re:And for anyone who believes this... by hackstraw · · Score: 2, Informative

    You draw your own conclusions as to what that will mean.

    Its been demonstrated that although people are willing to put up with microsoft products, they are unwilling to "trust" microsoft. Remember Microsoft Passport? Good idea, not too popular.

    Some relevant urls:

    http://yahoo.pcworld.com/yahoo/article/0,aid,63244 ,00.asp

    http://www.winnetmag.com/Article/ArticleID/22777/2 2777.html

    http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/18366.html

    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/software/1503 776.html

  6. Re:If Hannu H. Kari dosn't work for... by shawn(at)fsu · · Score: 2, Informative

    I don't know how I seem to not have a problem with spam like every one else does. It's simple any place that asks for an email address that you would rather not give them, use a hotmail account that you don't care about, a simple few letter account. I often let my account expire and just go back and reestablish it when I need to get QuickTime or real player again. In my other accounts that I don't give out liberally I maybe get 1 or two spam letters a week... What do you people do that get 100's of spam letters a day?

    --
    500 dollar reward for tip(s) leading to the arrest of the person(s) who stole my sig.
  7. Re:It doesn't matter until it affects the common m by farzadb82 · · Score: 3, Informative
    Actually, I would re-word what you just said to "It doesn't matter until it affects a person of power."

    Basically what I'm getting at is that it doesn't matter until someone in a position that has the power to force change is affected directly or indirectly.

    As with your example with DOS, more than high-end users were being affected. The competition work out alternatives to use extra memory (EMS memory anyone ?), and it wasn't until MS realized that they were going to loose to the competition that they came out with XMS and High Memory, etc. scheme from DOS 5 onwards.

    Windows Enhanced mode did not take effect for a long time. Lots of applications were still written and being written for DOS, even when Windows 3.1 was around. It wasn't until the release of Windows 95 that things began to change and people started to look towards Windows as a "real" application platform.

  8. Re:If Hannu H. Kari dosn't work for... by Cylix · · Score: 5, Informative

    Yeah,

    They wanted to do that at work. I simply refused to publicly display any of our email addresses. The last account/address they had was a spam fest because of this.

    So, I coded a simple web form for placing comments. The webform message allows someone to supply a reply to address and then its sent off to everyone who needs to respond to it.

    What's really funny... one day.. someone actually cut and pasted their spam into the webform. (I went to the persons website... they were not remotely technically inclined)

    It's very easy to get in touch with us via email and this technique really impairs harvesting.

    --
    "You should always go to other people's funerals; otherwise, they won't come to yours." -- Yogi Berra
  9. Re:And for anyone who believes this... by drinkypoo · · Score: 2, Informative

    Well, I didn't say that letting them on the internet was the problem. I really like that part, because the web is how I like to get information, and the web is how the companies on the internet choose to present themselves to us. I'm in favor of any kind of pull technology for information, where I get to make the choices, as opposed to eating from the trough, or perhaps drinking from the fire hose. My bank, my auto insurance provider, most of my utilities, and god damned near everything else I need is on the web these days, and that's a good thing.

    As you say, the problem is that companies have control of the infrastructure. Can you imagine what it would be like if private companies had control over the interstate highway network? Utter chaos. It's bad enough with the government in charge. Some things simply should be provided by government. Such an approach is not without its problems; governmental interference telling you what you're allowed to do can easily go too far, and of course we all understand the inefficiency of government.

    Even before the web became big, some tech-savvy companies were using email to communicate with their users, or other information services. For that matter, anyone remember Bank of America "Homebanking" service? It was their own little BBS with messaging and they even distributed their own 300 baud 40-column terminals that hooked up to your TV so you could get on the service without a computer.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  10. Re:And for anyone who believes this... by dubl-u · · Score: 4, Informative

    That September will finally end?

    Wow, for just a moment that gave me hope. You cruel, cruel bastard.

    (For those saying, "WTF?", see this.)

  11. The internet isn't TV. by ltbarcly · · Score: 1, Informative

    This guy doesn't seem to understand that the internet gives the user the choice of where to find the information they are seeking. So if www.sellout.com is starting to suck and be full of ads, www.realdeal.org will just start getting all the traffic instead.

    Personally, I used to get about 50-150 spams a day. Now I forward all my email accounts to gmail, and that number is down to 2-3 spams per day (and they all seem to be from the same porn site for some reason). So where before I usually didn't even bother to sift through my email, now it is painless. Things get fixed. If spam made email useless, then I could just use something else, or a propriatary messaging service. Or set up a web page where people could send me messages. Whatever. It would be less convienient (then email working perfectly, which it never has) at first, but incremental improvements would quickly solve that.

    The internet will never be threatened by alot of junk, so long as there is non-junk available somewhere.