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Hannu H. Kari Gives The Internet 2 More Years
erick99 writes "Dr. Hannu Kari says the Internet will will collapse in 2006 as reported in an article on ARS Technica. Yes, this is the same Dr. Kari who has predicted doom before, but it is still an entertaining read and there is more than a grain of truth in his reasoning." Reader Titney writes adds a couple of excerpts from an article on NewsRoom Finland: "The entire system will crumble to bits as the sheer bulk of rubbish circling around in the net exceeds the public pain threshold. ... When the internet is no longer operational for business purposes, one has to time warp back 10 to 20 years and make do without information networks"
For example, I used to enjoy debates on newsgroups, but last I checked (several years ago), they were just full of trash. The topics I was interested in had been largely abandoned by those that were actually knowledgable in the fields due in great part to this.
Another example is Yahoo message boards. Here we see what the lack of pretty much any moderation entails. Spam infested, crapflood infested, it's pretty difficult to get any meaningful discussion there.
I think what will happen is that there will be heavier moderation and more stringent entrance requirements for various online forums. The Internet will still function, it just won't be as open as it once was.
does this guy seriously think people will just sit by and let this happen, even assumning it's possible? I think it's safe to say at the first sign of problems around 6 gillion nerds world wide would start working on fixes and sending them to anyone who might possibly give a damn. Given the number of users, even IF this is a problem, it could be solved quickly.
Is this like the predication that we'd run out of IP addresses in the late 1990's. We all know that happened. Wait, no it didn't. Humans fixed the problem with private networks and NATing. In the process, they improved security and sanctity of their networks.
It's a funny thing, networks. You see, since humans control them, they make changes and adjustments in response to the needs of the network. Thus the network grows, adapts, and becomes a more powerful entity.
That being said, there are two things I wish I could exorcise from the net: Spam and viruses. These two creatures are responsible for more useless traffic than just about anything else. It would also be nice if protocols like GNUTella died or were fixed. The number of useless packets generated by such protocols is amazing.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Today the good professor warned that the fun bus could all come to a crashing halt in less than two years because of steady increases in everything that makes the Internet such a pain in the rear. Viruses, trojans, spam, and security flaws
I suffer from none of those things. Never have. And I use both Linux and WinXP. A good portion of my friends, family and coworkers don't suffer either.
Basically, this guy is saying that the Internet in its current form won't be around in five years.
I have a saying: "It doesn't matter until it affects the common man - then it will get fixed." It does not matter what "it" is - as long as "it" only affects a small number of folks "it" won't get fixed.
Look back at the old DOS days - when the 640K memory limit only affected high-end users, it didn't matter. When Joe Average started to bump his head, the problem was fixed (largely by the introduction of Windows enhanced mode). Look at spam - now that it affects just about everyone, moves are being made to fix it.
Yes, in five years we the Internet as we know it today won't exist - open SMTP proxies won't be allowed to exist, users will have up-to-date virus protection and firewalls, etc.
Guess what - the Internet as it existed five years ago doesn't exist, either!
www.eFax.com are spammers
I predict another five years for the Internet in its present form
I agree absolutely. If I saw a glimpse today of the net in five years I probably wouldn't recognize it. It is a cosstantly evolving organism. In 1999 I wouldn't recognize the net today.
Will it die? No, of course not. Games, porn, mail, chat, music, p2p, that's not going anywhere.
Business? Will businesses need to re-address the way they do business? More security, VPNs maybe, perhaps even leaving the net for other Information Systems solutions? Perhaps. If I knew the answer I would be rich in 5 years.
What the next big thing? Who knows. I never thought in 1999 that music downloads for money could be successful.
"You cannot find out which view is the right one by science in the ordinary sense." - C.S. Lewis on Intelligent Design
I know that a lot of our clients and feiends are using e-mail less and less. They are finding that they are buried under a growing deluge of spam and virus laden messages, and are moving back to telephone calls, faxes, and even paper letters.
We are lucky in having an ISP with superb and effective spam filtering, so only see a few dozen messages a day that fit that description.
Likwise we're very vigilant about virus protection and use a firewall, so have thus far avoided any virus infection.
Still, most casual users aren't at this level, and they are finding that the Internet is less useful than it used to be.
I don't hink that the Internet will collapse, but I can see a time when we start seeing casual users abandon it as more trouble than it's worth.
And just to throw in a very frigtening idea, what happens when one or more spammers successfully sue ISPs for blocking their mail? Even if it can't be done domestically, various international trade agreements may support such and action.
Three Squirrels
and I so hope he is right.
there is such a huge boatload of crap out here that I hope that it get's to a point that the average human runs away from it.
Because the Average Human is the cause of the problems of the Internet.
Does the average human take care of their pc? NO.
Does the Average human have the ability to not do something stupid like continue to foreward chain letters and hoaxes? NO.
I can go on for days, but in the end it's the "average" users that cause all that is wrong with the internet. If they go away, things will settle back down to normal.
I for one can not wait.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
Like SPAM?
Well, the public telephone network suffered from the problem of unsolicited bulk marketers calling people during dinner.
It still survives. But it did have a few adjustments made to it.
- CallerIDs to screen calls.
- Answering machines to screen calls. Turning off the ringers to remove the sense of urgency that used to be ascribed to incoming phone calls.
- Legislation for donotcall.gov.
- Paying the telephone company more for unlisted landlines.
- Not giving out phone numbers to any entry point to the direct marketing industry databases.
- Moving to cell phones that are automatically unlisted.
I guess I see the internet just evolving around the problems in multiple ways.I hate to say goodbye to anonymity in email that is abused by spammers because it has a special place for whistleblowers. But perhaps blog postings can still serve that purpose.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
When people and programs automatically accept incoming messages only from signed correspondants who match their contact database, all the rest of the messages will be treated as spam. The Net will lose its youthful trust, and much of its optimism and openness to change, which will inhibit innovation and social growth. But it won't die. It will grow old, bitter and rich.
--
make install -not war
*cough*Mathus*cough*
Just as a broken clock is right twice a day, eventually some doomsayer is going to be right, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't be Dr. Kari, and it will not be in 2006.
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
It means the internet, our internet, can go back to what it was before the companies started fucking it up; a medium for free information exchange.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
... When the internet is no longer operational for business purposes, one has to time warp back 10 to 20 years and make do without information networks
Perhaps the author remembers when the telephone and the postal mail services, both got so flooded with junk that all business quit using them, entirely, several years ago.
I also remember them becoming flooded with junk, but I don't remember when business quit using them.
And if the author does remember business quitting to use these services, what does he think we will return to ??? "giddyup, trigger" ???
Welcome to the new century. We've got more freedom, and we choose to use it for getting off. We like getting off. And we like getting off to different things, things which will never be provided by the mainstream. We will not accept a non-free Internet, not after having a free one.
Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken - Tyler Durden
Only the people who believed the internet was some kind of nirvana, where all the sins of mankind were going to be washed away by technology, are disappointed with the way things are going. The rest of us deal with the quirks and it still proves most useful. And businesses are the most locked in. Are we going to go back to modems and BBSs? Not if we want to stay in business. We will deal. The internet will deal. And mankind will remain unchanged in the face of technology.
why not just make your own network now and only let people you deem worthy on it now. what? no one wants to be on your elitist network? pity....
-You're wasting your time. Alfador only likes me.
I won't read the article because I don't want to be liable for more rubbish pouring through the pipes of the Internet. I don't want to help him fulfill his prophesy.
/. have a good reason to not RTFA.
For once, we all at
The Internet is a playground with no dried up old teachers to tell us not to hang upside down on the monkey bars. But groups and structures based on groups mature just like individuals, only slower. As the Internet evolves it will become self-policing. As we can see already with moderated forums, the relevant information can be made to bubble to the top with some small effort of users of said information. It is in the self interest of all Internet users to make it a viable place to find and exchange information. We are all selfish, and I think we'll get what we want. The other advantage the Internet has is that there are a lot of smart people using it and smart people are even better at figuring out how to get what they want than the average Joe. Perhaps the Internet would have already "collapsed" in a useful sense were it not for Google and others. Where there's a will there's a way.
Certainly the "public pain threshold" was reached long ago on T.V., and longer ago before that on radio, and still, we've got our boob tubes, and ear jocks every morning, afternoon, and night.
The public doesn't really care about advertising, in whatever form it comes. Certainly not enough, anyway, to give up their lazy lifestyles of channel surfing and station tuning.
Comments like this make me embarrassed to be a geek (albeit an old one).
Not everyone has the luxury of "hiding" their email address. For many of us, our work *requires* making our email address public--even to the point of posting it on a website. In my case, it also appears in a magazine each month.
So, get off your high horse and take a peek at the real world. You will see things that utterly amaze.
Ignorance is curable, stupid is forever.
It means the internet, our internet, can go back to what it was before the companies started fucking it up; a medium for free information exchange.
Back when it was "our internet" (as you put it), there was nowhere near the amount of free information exchange as there is today, in large part DUE to contributions by companies across the world.
Companies haven't fucked up the internet, they've given us more things we can do over the internet. The things that actually trash the internet are: script kiddies, virus writers, spammers, and evil countries.
Ironically, the word ironically is often used incorrectly.
If Canter and Siegel had been punished properly for their crime (been barred for ever from a connection) we wouldn't be in the position we are now. If upstream and backbone sites actually enforced non-spam, non-open-relay, etc rules, we'd be closer to a fully functioning network.
My good friend and colleague Dr Jennings was wont to say "the network is too important to be left to the networkers" -- and I still say he was wrong, dead wrong. The network is too important to be taken out of the hands of the networkers.
And what's all this crap about back 10 to 20 years "before we had an information network"? Excuse me, but 20 years ago I was happily using BITNET, the X.25 networks, and the IP networks (hell, UUCP too if it comes to that). Slow, primitive, but it sure looked like an information network to me.
Maybe the good doctor is confusing the Internet with the Web?
I donno. It's already a pain in the ass to find anything generic on Google, Yahoo, what have you. Instead you get a thousand and one fake "Search Engine" sites, that have googlebombed their way up the rankings. It works for very, VERY specific querys still, but even then, you'll get at least 1 page in the top 10 that's like www.findsearchmonkey-hotwomansex-freetvfreesatteli tefreecabletv-makemoneynow.com/.html
Email is slowly going the way of Usenet -- there's discussion going on, but there's a lot more junk than discussion. Eventually Email will be that crazy thing those old time geeks use, while everyone else uses, well, something else.
So if you can't communicate because of spam, and you can't find anything because of spam, then it becomes a pain in the ass to use the Internet, and that's what he means by Public Pain Threshold. When the general public decides that it's too big of a pain in the ass to do anything on the Internet, the Internet will start to shrink.
Explain to your PHB that making your email public is waisting productivity. Over a week time figure out how much time you are waisting on email multipy it by 50 (assume 2 week vacation) then multiply your salary to this combined time. If your department or the hole company has about the same amount of spam then mulitply their average salaris * the number of people. Also bring up possible things such as deleting good mail that is mixed with the hordes which could result in loss buisness. So after you show him the expence of Spam, Then offer him a solution and the cost to implement (make sure the implementation cost is less then your spam cost) Like say fill out a (Properly Made, with no hitches that allows people to email anyone in the world) Web Form that then emails the results to you.
PHB think in terms of $ not technology or anoyance. So if you show them that they can save money by a simple change in policy, Your PHB will look good to his PerHB (Pointier Haired Boss) You will look good for showing good company initative and tring to save expences and impove productivity. And you will have less SPAM.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
One thing that hasn't changed since the genesis of the internet, or really USENET, is the willingness of people to leap to unfounded conclusions. It's not that the companies got on the internet that meant they started destroying it; it's when they started comissioning spam (or spamming on their own), when they started getting exclusive rights to manage physical and logical infrastructure... But, you can assume anything you want. This is slashdot after all.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
In the real world people filter.
I've never had any problems giving out my email address. Junk goes in the spam filter, which I clean out once a month (when I admined for a company we had someone check every 2-3 days but never had any FPs to my knowledge).
I get maybe 1 spam gets through the filters in a week. Easy to handle.
the public pain threshhold? WTF is this guy talking about?
Yeah, if that were all it took, television would be as extinct as travel by zeppelin.
What makes you think that once people migrate over to other platforms that spyware won't follow them?
It may be even worse then, since they'll think "oh, hey, I can run anything I want now that I can't get spyware and viruses!"
you mean like the idiots these people were replying to?
"Go to CNN [for a] spell-checked, fact-checked summary" -- CmdrTaco
QUOTE: of _KiTa__ "When the general public decides that it's too big of a pain in the ass to do anything on the Internet, the Internet will start to shrink."
Good then, let it shrink. Think I care? 99.9% of the people on the internet are idiots anyways.
When the internet shrinks, there will be more of a ratio of people like you and me vs the idiots.
The more intelligent people on the internet the better.
If the internet "dies" to the general public, so will spam, etc. Then there will only be real geeks on the internet, which will be like when it started.
This will also insinuate a "cycle" the internet gets unpopular, spamming and advertising dies out. When the spam and such dies out then people start to get in to it again, and then cycle repeats.
Everything that goes up must come down.
Here's a nice hypothetical question: What would you do if somehow you knew 24 hours in advance that the world as we know it, i.e. the internet, would collapse? Would you download the latest version of your favorite Linux programs, turn of the computer in quiet resignation, or would you nostalgically make your last few Slashdot posts? Think about it.