Study Says 4.1M Domestic Robots In Use By 2007

jangobongo writes "The U.N.'s annual World Robotics Survey for 2004 predicts that there will be a seven-fold surge in household robots by the end of 2007. Robots that mow your lawn, vacuum, wash windows, clean swimming pools, as well as entertainment robots such as Aibo are all vying to take a place in our homes and ease our workload. The study says that Japan is the leader in consumer robotics, with Europe and North America quickly catching up."

Comments

Let me be the first to say...

[metlin]

I, for one, welcome our new lawn mowing window washing swim suit wearing robotic over...err...dogs?

Re:Let me be the first to say...

[swordboy]

Not so fast - read closer:

The U.N.'s annual World Robotics Survey for 2004 predicts that there will be a seven-fold surge in household robots by the end of 2007.

Hmmm... multiply, carry the one... There it is... in 2007, there will be a grand total of SEVEN household robots.

Nothing times a billion is still nothing. I would hardly call it a surge.

Re:Let me be the first to say...

[stecoop]

Nothing times a billion is still nothing

This is true for regular algebra but in calculus there are formulas where even though the regular math proves 0*n = 0; studying points as they approach really close to the numbers will show that sometimes will not be zero. Like sin(x)/x as x -> 0 should be Undefined right? Well as you study the limits on both sides of 0 to infinite "closeness" you'll see that the formula actually equates to 1. Therefore if you had sin(x)/x as x -> 0 * billion it would equal a billion. Weird huh?

Re:Let me be the first to say...

[jdhutchins]

n/0 is not infinity, it is undefined. In math, you cannot divide by zero. You can take limits as the denominator approaches zero, but that is a completely different story. The limit of a function as it approaches a number is irrelivant of the value of the function at that number.

Re:Let me be the first to say...

[Stealth Potato]

Therefore if you had sin(x)/x as x -> 0 * billion it would equal a billion.

Um, no it wouldn't. Zero times one billion is still zero. Furthermore, sin(0)/0 does not equal 1, it is undefined. The limit of sin(x)/x as x goes to zero is 1, but that doesn't change the fact that you can't divide by zero. Now, if you take the value of that limit and multiply by 1 billion, the result will be 1 billion, because 1 times 1 billion equals 1 billion. Like this: (lim(sin(x)/x,x,0)*10^9 = 10^9, because the first part (the limit) is equal to one. What you are indicating is the multiplication of the zero, the limiting value for x. Zero times a billion is zero, so you're taking the limit as x approaches zero, which is, surprise surprise, 1.

Time to get

[beacher]

ROBOT INSURANCE!!!!! Because robots have steel claws and they eat old peoples medicine for food!

Yup

[Xpilot]

Just like how they predicted everyone would using flying cars in the 21st century. Yawn.

Re:Yup

[Short Circuit]

But how many years ahead were the predictions? This study says three years. Weren't flying cars predicted for fifty?

In terms of maturity, the technology behind household robots is a lot closer to producing affordable units than that behind flying cars.

Re:Yup

[Firethorn]

Well, you take the expansion of the definition of "robot" to mean any microprocessor controlled mobile mechanical device. If you look at many of these "robots", you find that they're more wonders of doing more with less than intelligent or complex programmed behavior. The robo-vac? Psedeu-random movement with a cliff & bump sensor. It runs over a room enough to be statistically unlikely to miss a spot, but it does it at a cost of covering most spots multiple times.

Re:Yup

[fleener]

Don't blame us if you haven't bought your own flying car yet. Cheap bastard.

Re:Yup

[danila]

Actually robovacs develop very quickly. It is true that the first versions were basically suck-and-bump, but newer models often have rudimentary navigation based on infrared sensors (they do build a mental map of the room) and most newer robots (including Aibos) can locate the charger (the most important feature for their autonomy). The newest Roomba can "see" dirt underneath and understand in which areas it needs to suck most, so to speak.

Re:Yup

[danila]

Yes, but simply because it was the cheapest solution. When you are dealing with small apartments that you can cross in less than a minute, an infrared marker is the easiest thing to do. It would be silly to slap AI and navigational node networks on that robovac, simply to impress the geeks. The KISS principle guaranteed they can make a popular product - they will improve it as time goes.

Another type of robots

[Underholdning]

They forgot sex robots. Add a bit of movement and AI to a RealDoll and you will have a bestseller.
(I'm only partially kidding.)

Re:Another type of robots

[MikeDX]

I'm not. I for one welcome our Artificially inteligent Latex overl. erm... ladies?

Yeah, right

[Tyndmyr]

I love these drastic studies... Sure, it might make sense for people to do that, but since when has the general population had more than two brain cells in use at a time?

I predict painfully slow progress in robotics, and a vast increase in tech support when they first become prevailent.

The U.N.'s annual World Robotics Survey for 2004?

[Anonymous Coward]

They are going to have to change their charter!

"WE THE PEOPLES..."

to

"WE THE PEOPLES AND ROBOTSES..."

see

http://www.un.org/aboutun/charter/index.html

perspective pleeze

[lottameez]

From the article: "robots will ...carry out surgery..."

And you people are worried about e-voting? How about e-i-just-lost-my-ear-lobe-due-to-a-software-glitch -in-the-dr.-kildare-robot?

The future...comming soon

[ROBOGriff]

More importantly, this further proves we are getting closer to a world like I Robot and Matrix. Remember to be kind to your robots.

Re:The future...comming soon

[Uninvited Guest]

Ignore parent post; he's a robot, and cannot be trusted...

Okay, he's not really a robot, he's just a guy in my office...

but, I still don't trust. He kinda... you know... talks like a robot.

Robot surgeons? We'll need 'em

[The I Shing]

Thanks to years of inactivity caused by having robots do all our work for us, in the end we'll be carried out of our houses by robot paramedics and taken to the robot hospital to have our clogged-up human hearts removed and replaced with robot hearts by the robot surgeons.

Isn't that kind of how the Cybermen got going? Will the Doctor have to stop us from trying to take over the universe?

What is a robot?

[Laur]

What exactly is the definition of a robot here? Why is a machine that washes your dishes an "appliance" while a machine that mows your lawn is a "robot"? How about washers/dryers (some even have advanced computer control)? What if you put a sophisticated computer in a toaster or a fridge? Where is the line drawn?

Re:What is a robot?

[ultrafunkula]

From the article: "Robot" refers to any machine that operates automatically to perform tasks in a human-like way, often replacing the human workers who did the job previously. I guess a dishwasher wouldn't be covered by this because of the way it performs it's job.

Re:What is a robot?

[Hittite Creosote]

When the machine that washes the dirty dishes comes and collects them from the table first, then you can call it a robot.

Re:What is a robot?

[BrK]

I think it is considered a robot if it can move from Point A to Point B under it's own power and logic control ("logic" might just be recalling a pre-programmed pattern from a storage device, etc). Or also, if it stays in place, but can manipulate other objects about.

An appliance can have a large degree of intelligence, but is generally an object that does not move about after installation.

Ie: a dishwasher that plays chess on a screen is an "appliance". A dishwasher that plays chess by actually moving the pieces about on the board (via articulated arms, etc) is a "robot".

Re:What is a robot?

[Preferred Customer]

A system that operates "closed loop" is more robot-like than one that operates "open loop". A closed loop system compares a measurement to a setpoint and adjusts a system variable to minimize the difference between the measurement and the setpoint. I've spent time developing and testing PID process controllers and it's fascinating to watch them operate. They seem eerily human.

By my definition, though, a toilet is a robot.

Re:What is a robot?

[Boronx]

The more you you can anthropomorphise an automated machine, the more of a robot it is.

Or, rather, the more we see it as animated, the more robotic it is. A cockroach robot is animated, but it ain't anthropomorphic.

Take those little Robie coin-eating robots from Radioshack. They're robots. Now, imagine you've encased Robie in an opaque box with a coin slot in it.

Robie behaves exactly the same, but we don't see it. It's no longer a robot, it's just a piggie bank that makes a whirring sound.

alternative article on UN report...with more links

[museumpeace]

2004.10.20: UN predicts much wider use of robots
An Associated Press report [via yahoo] of United Nations Study on robots is predicting robust increases in the use of robots both for both domestic and industrial uses. If you googled for this news you would find similar reports each year going back a ways. Here is the PDF straight from the UN. What makes this news is that its the UN talking, not some manufacturer's press release and that the numbers are more sanguine than ever:

"There are now some 21,000 "service robots" in use, carrying out tasks such as milking cows, handling toxic waste, ferrying medicine around hospitals and assisting surgeons. The number is set to reach a total of 75,000 by 2007, the study says."

But is there a job in this "boom" for any of us?

For comparison here is last year's report, tidied up by your favorite submitter, Roland Click-appeal [hey, at least he RTFA!].

what will the kiddies do then?

[Anonymous Coward]

Robots that mow your lawn, vacuum, wash windows, clean swimming pools

I thought this was why people had kids.

Re:what will the kiddies do then?

[catherder_finleyd]

The kids will still have jobs programming the robots:

"Hey Son, How do you program this thing? It's still flashing 12:00!"

Re:what will the kiddies do then?

[zymurgy_cat]

I thought this was why people had kids.

True, but your RoboMower won't drink your beer, invite its pierced, strangely dressed friends over to your house, listen to loud scary music, spend extended periods of time in the bathroom doing who-knows-what, ask to borrow the car and then not put any gas in it, or put you in a home when you get old and senile.

Re:what will the kiddies do then?

[lachlan76]

True, but your RoboMower won't drink your beer, invite its pierced, strangely dressed friends over to your house, listen to loud scary music, spend extended periods of time in the bathroom doing who-knows-what, ask to borrow the car and then not put any gas in it, or put you in a home when you get old and senile.

Don't worry, it'll be out in the next release.

Robot modding...

[jmcmunn]

When we all have house cleaning robots, or window washing robots how long do you think it will be before people mod them to be other things. Picture this....

I just overclocked my WindowWasher PCXL and modded it to become the most powerful BattleBot ever!! Wax on, Wax off...

it has to be said...

[Lumpy]

this is our future?

Satanic Robot Chicks Again

[zenmojodaddy]

I may have mentioned this before, but Anton LaVey suggested that the next big industry will be the production of robotic companions, because they can be programmed to provide the exact type of stimulation or gratification that the user requires, thus avoiding the need to interact with real people who are imperfect at best.

Natch, the Slashdot model will look like Princess Leia, know how to handle a soldering iron, and talk about how great Linux is. Or something...

There may also be an easily-repairable Wesley Crusher model for those 'GNYAR!' moments. Or Jar Jar Binks. Or that ultimate nightmare, Jar Jar Crusher.

four million robotses...

[gomel]

... and none have the three Laws of Robotniks programmed in.
I smell trouble.

Re:four million robotses...

[kid-noodle]

Ahem. Three Laws only apply to the design of positronic brains.

Just to be really fucking pedantic.

Any different when a human screws up?

[SmallFurryCreature]

Their are countless studies showing the deathtoll because of medical screwups. Depending on who you believe the number is insanely high. Those stories about people having the wrong bit amputated are not jokes or urban legends. They are common place.

Sure a badly programmed bot can do the same with one tiny little difference. Once a bug has been fixed it will be fixed in all the bots forever. Doctors make the same mistake over and over again no matter how many times they are told not to.

Re:Any different when a human screws up?

[nwbvt]

You are forgetting the way people think. It doesn't matter if the technology is safer than the old fashioned way, people will still cry foul whenever something goes wrong. Your post even demonstrates this. Having surgery in our modern world is very safe. Much safer than how it was a hundred years ago, and much safer than leaving the problem untreated. Yet in the few instances when something goes wrong, lynch mobs are after the doctors even if what happened was unavoidable.

Do you really think that would be any different if it were robots doing the surgery instead of humans?

Robot, it ain't what you think it is

[(SM) Spacemonkey]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot
At first this may seem a pointless karma whore link to wikipedia, but I have a point.

When you talk to the average person about Robots, they think of that terrible Robin Williams movie, or more recently I,Robot (the movie, not the terrific book). The point is, the term "robot" conjures up thoughts of artifical humans. However the strick definition of a robot is a machine automated to perform tasks in the place of humans. This is why I get disappointed reading articles like this, I go in with the anticipation of every geek. "Sex robots by 2007!" Ok maybe female geeks want cuddle robots... Anyway instead we get stuck with.... lawn mowers, and pretend dogs?

Robots for autistic childeren

[SmallFurryCreature]

Saw a bit on tv about robots designed to deal with autistic childeren. These kids find human interaction far to complex to the point where they just give up and stay in their own world.

What they need is something to play with them but in an extremely simple ruleset. They don't understand lies and half-lies let alone jokes. Human caretakers can't descend that low (we are talking well below the social skills of even a pet) but robots can. They can be programmed with a very simple ruleset of play and repeat this over and over again.

So for these kids at least the future of robotic playmates is now. They don't need massive advances in AI, the exact opposite infact. The total predictabilty of current AI is exactly what they need.

Re:Robots for autistic childeren

[benhocking]

Your concept has validity, but some of your comments are inaccurate. Most autistic children have social skills well above that of a pet, especially if they are in an Applied Behavioral Analysis (ABA) program that addresses these skills. In fact, of the more than 20 autistic children I know (all of whom are in an ABA program), ALL of them have social skills above that of a pet. (I'm going to stop using that comparison now, because it's beginning to bother me.)

I think where this idea has the most merit, however, is in an ABA program itself. Instructors using ABA do their best to use consistent prompts (or sometimes consistently inconsistent, if they're trying to teach generalization skills) and show no affect when the child acts up. These techniques would be much easier to handle with a robot. However, this robot would need significant AI (to understand if the child has provided a correct response, or if the child is engaging in a behavior that should be extinguished, etc.), but AI that might soon be within our current reach.

Re:Simple, the tiniest bit of intelligence.

[justinstreufert]

For an even closer analogy, my clothes dryer has a sensor in it which detects when the clothes are as dry as I wanted them and shuts the dryer off. I think this would qualify the dryer as a robot, since it has sensors and actuators and responds to stimuli. Of course, that would mean my heating system is also a robot, since it comes on automatically when it gets too cold in the house. Feh.

I think people look at devices that move around of their own accord and they know, "oh, that's a robot." Since appliances just sit there, people will not call them robots no matter how intelligent they are.

Very prescient

[esconsult1]

I was reading Marshall Brain's essays on the subject yesterday when I caught a gander at the news story.

Check out the series of essays on:

• Manna software that "runs" service oriented businesses, therefore driving down wages
• Robotic Nation about how robots are slowly taking over "routine" type jobs.

I'm sure this was covered in Slashdot sometime before, but Marshall's essays are eerie when juxtaposed with this article.

Re:Fat lazy Americans...

[erick99]

This point is more valid than most would think. For a lot of people who have office jobs and don't go to a gym or otherwise actively excercise, yard work and housework are their best chances of getting some excercise. If we get to the point that robots are ubiquitous, than we have to do something to prevent the majority of our population from dying from pressure sores from not moving. Okay, a bit of an exaggeration but it will still be a problem.

Re:maybe it's just me

[DLR]

Buy a goat?

As a disabled person myself

[pair-a-noyd]

I would like to have some of the auto-cleaning robots, like the roomba
and the Robomaid

to help me out around the house. It's almost impossible for me to do housework. Having a large dog makes housework even harder, what with the hair problem. I can not sweep, vacuum, mop, etc..

I think they should classify these devices as assistance devices for disabled/handicapped people because I can't afford them as I'm sure many other disabled/handicapped are on very tight budgets like myself. It would be nice to get them covered like scooters and wheelchairs are..

I won't be holding my breath though..

Re:Query?

[LiquidCoooled]

Crude joke maybe, but certainly not a troll.

Imagine an insect sized bug wandering around grooming, shaving stubble, removing dead skin, cleansing your pores all like a roomba.

Going to sleep stubbly and waking up with clean unclogged hair and a smooth chin. Or just let it work whilst your watching tv or sitting in your cube.

Simple AI would allow it to tell the difference between stubble and long specific hair thats meant to exist, heck it could even do as the parent suggests and trim your pubes.

It could even scan for other skin related problems whilst its there.

For everyone yicked out by the thought of this, remember the world is full of symbiotic creatures, whales and sharks have cleaner fish which do a similar job, whilst I would also get the eeby-geebies about having insects crawling on me, I don't seem to have a problem with letting a robot do the job.

Re:maybe it's just me

[lonely]

I bought a refurbed rowbot machine a month or so ago and it does my garden a treat. The wirling blades are underneath and it is stuff with kit that makes the blades stop should anything come near.

Mind you the cats seem to be quite affraid of it.

And the Study Says... industry

[solodex2151]

Note that according to the study, the vast leading majority of robots are ones used in industry most often for manufacturing (the study mentions the auto industry, but semiconductor fabs are starting to become all robotic as well). The study goes on to say that even though household robots will become more common, the overwhelming majority will still be industrial.

Tech Developement Prize

[Yanray]

What would be the best way to way a success in robotics for an X-Prize like competition. Multiple prizes A.I. developement Speed and manuverablity pressure atmosphere conditions?

jobs?

[Cyno]

What will happen to all our jobs if robots automate everything.

In a capitalist society like ours a person is only worth their salt if they provide some valuable labor to society. What will happen to all those people once their jobs are automated. With they be worth any salt?

I personally think that every person is worth more money than we could ever print. They are worth so much because they have within their possession a neural network with decades of programming that allow them to be creative and innovative in ways machines are not yet capable. Besides all that they are human, like me, so they automaticly get a +1 value of anything that is not. However, capitalists don't view the world this way.

I am affraid that these coming robots will displace jobs and the net result will be more poverty which leads to more crime and mental illness.

Wouldn't it be a lot simpler to phase out the existence of money than to attempt to make enough work for everyone to keep busy?

Perhaps if things get bad enough we will become more open minded to these ideas.

Similarly if you want people to be happy don't force them to live in poverty. Want to prevent crime, prevent homeless and jobless environments. Want to stop terrorism, don't shoot their relatives, provide them a better way of live by sharing and giving.

We would be a lot more productive if we didn't spend all our time counting coins, IMHO. What if we invested that time, instead, in building robots and automating labor?