Zogby Claims Mobile-Only Voters Swing to Kerry

Zogby released a poll yesterday that showed the ill-counted mobile-phone-only voters heavily in favor of Kerry over Bush. It should be noted that all participants opted in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect. Further, the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.

Comments

Parallels to previous elections

[stinerman]

This reminds me of when FDR won his first election. Traditional Democratic voters in the south did not have phones like the Republican base in the north (yes, it has switched over time).

Therefore, the polls were biased for the Republican and was generally thought to be a close election. Of course, FDR won in a landslide.

Re:Parallels to previous elections

[antifoidulus]

Um, the election you are thinking about wasn't won by FDR, it was won by the VP he picked for his 4th term, Harry S. Truman. That election is where the famous, "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline comes from. The press was so confident in the polls that they went ahead and predicted the election(you are right in that the polls were biased in favor of people who owned phones, which at that time leaned heavily Republican)

So...

[wizbit]

The big question, as always with this age group, is still turnout. Zogby predicts the group accounts for 12% or more(!) of the electorate, so they could play a huge factor in determining the election. And Zogby adds (which you conveniently left off) that there are zero undecideds. Suspect or not, Zogby declares that to mean "this group is definitely going to vote."

Don't be so quick to discount this poll.

Re:So...

[E_elven]

Also on FOX: "Nokia, Motorola And SonyEricsson Using Microwave Devices To Turn Patriotic Americans Into Kerry-Voting Zombies. Our Online Poll: Can A Company Be Terrorist?"

Run by democrats?

[squiggleslash]

It should be noted that all participants opted-in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect

I thought "Rock the Vote" was originally an MTV (Viacom), campaign, whose CEO has come out in favour of Bush? On their front page, I can see a petition aimed at both the DNC and RNC about the draft,

Or is it Motorola that counts as "The Democrats" for this particular campaign?

Or is this just a "Republicans would never encourage people to vote, therefore it's those lousy Democrats that are behind it" thing?

Re:Run by democrats?

[squiggleslash]

Rock the Vote leans left on every single issue (just look at their issues pages)

Try as I might, I can't find one. The nearest thing I see to one is the Petition against the Draft on the front page. Given the site is aimed at encouraging the participation of the young in elections, it strikes me that the draft is a pretty good way of getting their attention.

and their executive director is a former Democratic party operative

Is he still a Democratic party operative? Would you prefer someone not involved in politics to be the leader of an organization aimed at encouraging people to vote (notwithstanding any disagreements you might have with the message of the campaign?

And as to the draft, how do you figure that is nonpartisan? They are trying to make people think the draft is a possibility, which is entirely false, and the ad is clearly aimed at hurting Bush.

It's non-partisan because they're not aiming at any particular party, and there's no particular party associated with the draft? I mean, the only connection I can think of between Bush and the Draft is that Bush is the leader of the current administration, and therefore the one that took us to war. I'm 100% certain that had rumours of a draft appeared while Clinton was in office and a bloody war was raging, the same group would be highlighting it.

Any campaign to encourage people to get up and vote is going to use issues in the news. Usually having power, and thus the ability to frame and decide the issues, is one of the benefits of being an incumbent. In this case, it isn't.

Re:Run by democrats?

[squiggleslash]

I looked recently, and found them to be in favor of federal handouts for education, for free health care, anti-war, pro-choice, anti-ANWR. Just go down the list, they support every Democratic position on every major issue.

We're obviously looking at two completely different websites then. As I said, the draft seems to be the only "issue" mentioned on the (admittedly appallingly designed and expensive to navigate on a slow PC with poor bandwidth) website I was looking at. Perhaps I'll take a better look at it when I get home.

Yes, a good dishonest way, that the Democrats are using to make people vote for Kerry.

That's right, because Kerry's against the draft whereas Bush is... hold on?

She is, yes. That's what Rock the Vote is.

Great. So it's now a self defining argument. Rock the Vote is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it. And the person who runs it is a Democratic Party Operative because she runs Rock the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which we've established is a Democratic Front because a Democratic Party Operative runs it, proof of which is that she runs Rocks the Vote which...

It's a facade! Their appearance of neutrality only extends to what they say and do! They're obviously biased because they're campaigning about one thing that both parties have identical policies on!

I give up. I guess this "logic" explains why Republicans think the press is left wing.

Huh, syntax error

[schmaltz]

...the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.

That assertion has no legs. Saying that because set A responds in a way that is similar to set B's response, they are essentially the same and A can be excluded if B is? That's just wrong. For one, the questions used to obtain the responses of the two groups, coming from different polling orgs, will very likely not be the same, which obliterates the base of your assertion.

And, man, "if the results are to be trusted" - that *pegged* the needle on my Strauss-o-meter.

Ok, so we have

[revscat]

1. Boston Red Sox win the World Series
2. Washington Redskins lose
3. Cell-only people are swinging to Kerry
4. Voter registration is way, way up
5. The Economist endorses Kerry, as do most American newspapers (including many which endorsed Bush in 2000)
6. More Republicans are endorsing Kerry (Eisenhower, son of the President; Milliken, guv of MI, Cook, Sen-KY, etc.) than Bush (Miller, Sen-GA)
7. GOP vote blocking efforts are being shut down by those damn "activist judges"
8. John Stewart's book is #1 on the bestseller lists

Yup, things are looking good for the good guys.

Text messages

[MillionthMonkey]

Is this why I keep getting text messages warning me that if I went over my minutes I'll get arrested at the polls on November 4?

Re:Text messages

[MillionthMonkey]

Cause if you try to vote on the 4th you are probably trying to commit fraud?

Actually it was a sly reference to a leaflet that someone has been distributing in Democratic areas of Alabama:

Attention:
Jefferson
County!!!

See You At The Poles
November 4, 2004.

To Find your local polling
place, call Jefferson
County Voter's
Registration
Commission.

Of course, the election is on Nov. 2. It's just like Soviet Russia- if you try to vote on Nov. 4, the fraud has been committed on you!

Re:I predict...

[Hard_Code]

By that definition anything popular is wrong, so you have to do the _opposite_ just to make sure you don't inadvertently look like you are being trendy. Anti-trendy is the new trendy! Lots of people think murder is wrong. Such sheep! Why don't they think for themselves instead of "going with the herd"! It still seems anti-war and anti-president is sure UNtrendy from what I see. Face it, no matter who you vote for, there is going to be an idiot somewhere ALSO voting for that person. You have to vote on your own beliefs not how popular or unpopular the belief is.

Great work /. editors

[aztektum]

I see you're just posting user comments as front page now

Re:So.....

[MindStalker]

Just a side not from that.
Nickolodeans poll which has been running for 5 elections and always was right picked Kerry.
While Scholastic which has been running a kids vote since 1940, has only been wrong twice (1948, and 1960) picked Bush. So ones going down. Lets see!

Re:I predict...

[robochan]

...they'll have a low turnout rate anyway, since they're incapable of shutting the hell up long enough to vote.

I'd be happy if they'd shut the hell up long enough to drive :oP