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Zogby Claims Mobile-Only Voters Swing to Kerry

Posted by pudge on from the with-a-straight-face dept.

Zogby released a poll yesterday that showed the ill-counted mobile-phone-only voters heavily in favor of Kerry over Bush. It should be noted that all participants opted in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect. Further, the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.

7 of 111 comments (clear)

  1. So... by wizbit · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The big question, as always with this age group, is still turnout. Zogby predicts the group accounts for 12% or more(!) of the electorate, so they could play a huge factor in determining the election. And Zogby adds (which you conveniently left off) that there are zero undecideds. Suspect or not, Zogby declares that to mean "this group is definitely going to vote."

    Don't be so quick to discount this poll.

  2. Run by democrats? by squiggleslash · · Score: 4, Interesting
    It should be noted that all participants opted-in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect
    I thought "Rock the Vote" was originally an MTV (Viacom), campaign, whose CEO has come out in favour of Bush? On their front page, I can see a petition aimed at both the DNC and RNC about the draft,

    Or is it Motorola that counts as "The Democrats" for this particular campaign?

    Or is this just a "Republicans would never encourage people to vote, therefore it's those lousy Democrats that are behind it" thing?

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    You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
  3. Huh, syntax error by schmaltz · · Score: 3, Funny

    ...the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.

    That assertion has no legs. Saying that because set A responds in a way that is similar to set B's response, they are essentially the same and A can be excluded if B is? That's just wrong. For one, the questions used to obtain the responses of the two groups, coming from different polling orgs, will very likely not be the same, which obliterates the base of your assertion.

    And, man, "if the results are to be trusted" - that *pegged* the needle on my Strauss-o-meter.

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    Big Daddy, Johnny, Burp, Aunt Zelda, Scott, Slurp, Big Momma ... where's Siggy?
  4. Ok, so we have by revscat · · Score: 4, Interesting
    1. Boston Red Sox win the World Series
    2. Washington Redskins lose
    3. Cell-only people are swinging to Kerry
    4. Voter registration is way, way up
    5. The Economist endorses Kerry, as do most American newspapers (including many which endorsed Bush in 2000)
    6. More Republicans are endorsing Kerry (Eisenhower, son of the President; Milliken, guv of MI, Cook, Sen-KY, etc.) than Bush (Miller, Sen-GA)
    7. GOP vote blocking efforts are being shut down by those damn "activist judges"
    8. John Stewart's book is #1 on the bestseller lists

    Yup, things are looking good for the good guys.

  5. Text messages by MillionthMonkey · · Score: 3, Funny

    Is this why I keep getting text messages warning me that if I went over my minutes I'll get arrested at the polls on November 4?

  6. Re:I predict... by Hard_Code · · Score: 3, Insightful

    By that definition anything popular is wrong, so you have to do the _opposite_ just to make sure you don't inadvertently look like you are being trendy. Anti-trendy is the new trendy! Lots of people think murder is wrong. Such sheep! Why don't they think for themselves instead of "going with the herd"! It still seems anti-war and anti-president is sure UNtrendy from what I see. Face it, no matter who you vote for, there is going to be an idiot somewhere ALSO voting for that person. You have to vote on your own beliefs not how popular or unpopular the belief is.

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    It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
  7. Re:Parallels to previous elections by antifoidulus · · Score: 3, Informative

    Um, the election you are thinking about wasn't won by FDR, it was won by the VP he picked for his 4th term, Harry S. Truman. That election is where the famous, "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline comes from. The press was so confident in the polls that they went ahead and predicted the election(you are right in that the polls were biased in favor of people who owned phones, which at that time leaned heavily Republican)

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    Monstar L