Slate Posts Top-Secret Exit Polling Numbers

cmdr_beeftaco writes "Slate is running an ongoing commentary with the raw exit-poll data from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers-big city newspapers and other broadcasters. 'The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them.'"

Comments

Rumor Mill...

[D.A. Zollinger]

The rumor going around at work is that traditionally when there is heavy turnout at the polls (like today's near record turnout) it is a sign of the masses rising up to throw out the party in power.

Re: Rumor Mill...

[Black Parrot]

> The rumor going around at work is that traditionally when there is heavy turnout at the polls (like today's near record turnout) it is a sign of the masses rising up to throw out the party in power.

Another tradition is that due to the way the two parties have divided the social pyramid, heavy turnouts favor the Democrats.

Presumably these traditions have a sounder basis than all the sports correlations we've been hearing about, but under the circumstances I would still interpret them cautiously. Both parties have worked extremely hard to get their voters out this year.

Re: Rumor Mill...

[rmohr02]

Yea--the Republicans have even been trying to get minorities to vote.

Sorry, but these aren't "secret"

[wizbit]

These are provided by the National Election Pool, the successor to Voter News Services, disbanded after the 2000 election froo-fraw. And these numbers have been available all afternoon (well, since 2pm EST) to anyone in the media who would've been interested. Salon's readers would've learned about it any number of times reading the War Room this afternoon. And as always, these early returns are to be taken with a HUGE - repeat, HUGE - grain of salt. The networks won't report these because they are unreliable at this point and because of the great caution they are taking to avoid another 2000 debacle.

Re:Sorry, but these aren't "secret"

[Karma Farmer]

Especially if they call it in favor of the liberal AGAIN and are wrong AGAIN.

When did that happen? I just remember 2000, when they called it for George Bush (who is a republican, but most emphatically not conservative).

Exit polls would throw the election

[mind21_98]

I'm not sure if it's a good idea for Slate to be posting exit polls. Exit polls tend to throw elections when they're very close, IMHO, and we cannot afford to have the election be in doubt this time around.

BTW: if you're reading this and you haven't voted yet, GO VOTE.

Re: Exit polls would throw the election

[Black Parrot]

> I'm glad that they posted the exit poll numbers. It looks like Kerry is firmly in the lead in Ohio which means I don't have to waste my time standing in line forever.

When too many people think that way, they risk treating themselves to a nasty surprise.

Re:Exit polls would throw the election

[Eustace Tilley]

Tricksy anonymous Republican hobbitses!

race2004.net

[timothv]

There's also constant updates at race2004.net

Victory for Kerry

[Profane MuthaFucka]

Kerry's going to win at least 306 electoral points, since he's picking up Iowa according to the late results.

To the guy who stole my Kerry sign in the middle of the day: Congratulations, you've got yourself a nice sign.

Me: the guy I voted for is going to become the President.

Today is a really good day indeed. Hey buddy, Enjoy that fucking sign!

having more information isn't a bad thing.

[artifex2004]

As long as the readers know it's just first data and not worth much right now, I think it's fine.

Besides, maybe it will convince voters in certain states who were going to give their vote to a protest candidate, or not vote at all, that it's closer in some states that were expected to be solidly in favor of one candidate or another, and so maybe their vote might actually matter after all.

Sure would hate for it to come down to under a thousand votes again, and be someone who threw away my chance to change the outcome.

Of course, all this is theoretical - in my state, Texas, there's really no chance of it being close.

Re:having more information isn't a bad thing.

[AuMatar]

Not at all. The heart of democracy is comprimise. Trying to find a solution thats acceptable to all (or as many as possible) people involved. This means in Congress sometimes you need to vote for something you dislike in order to get a vote for something you do like. Or that you need to vote for something midway between two views, because its better than nothing. In elections, this means sometimes you need to vote for a comprimise candidate (Kerry) rather than have nothing done at all (Bush).

Any word on HULK, the Green Party Candidate?

[xmas2003]

When the halloween webcam votingclosed last night, the numbers were:
HULK: 15,020 BUSH: 14,531 KERRY: 14,192
but it is open for voting (for the last night) in 2 hours.

But I don't see the Big Green Guy listed in Slate's numbers, so it doesn't bode well for Hulk for President

May as well act on it.

[dtfinch]

It you're in Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, or North Carolina, are registered to vote, and haven't voted, and the polls are still open, get your ass to the polls. They are very close.

What is this?

[Daetrin]

Every exit poll i've seen says Florida is leaning towards Kerry by about 1 or 2 percent, however NBC says that with 22% of the precincts reporting that Florida is 55% for Bush, which seems well outside what i'd expect for the margin error.

So are we just getting an odd set of precincts reporting first, or is the official vote vastly different (statistically speaking) from the exit polls?

[tinfoil-hat]
At what point do we demand some kind of investigation, especially given the number of Diebold machines in Florida? This is the first time i've been glad for the exit polls, which will hopefully provide some check on votes getting changed after they're cast.
[/tinfoil-hat]