Slate Posts Top-Secret Exit Polling Numbers

cmdr_beeftaco writes "Slate is running an ongoing commentary with the raw exit-poll data from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers-big city newspapers and other broadcasters. 'The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them.'"

Comments

Rumor Mill...

[D.A. Zollinger]

The rumor going around at work is that traditionally when there is heavy turnout at the polls (like today's near record turnout) it is a sign of the masses rising up to throw out the party in power.

Re: Rumor Mill...

[Black Parrot]

> The rumor going around at work is that traditionally when there is heavy turnout at the polls (like today's near record turnout) it is a sign of the masses rising up to throw out the party in power.

Another tradition is that due to the way the two parties have divided the social pyramid, heavy turnouts favor the Democrats.

Presumably these traditions have a sounder basis than all the sports correlations we've been hearing about, but under the circumstances I would still interpret them cautiously. Both parties have worked extremely hard to get their voters out this year.

Re: Rumor Mill...

[rmohr02]

Yea--the Republicans have even been trying to get minorities to vote.

Sorry, but these aren't "secret"

[wizbit]

These are provided by the National Election Pool, the successor to Voter News Services, disbanded after the 2000 election froo-fraw. And these numbers have been available all afternoon (well, since 2pm EST) to anyone in the media who would've been interested. Salon's readers would've learned about it any number of times reading the War Room this afternoon. And as always, these early returns are to be taken with a HUGE - repeat, HUGE - grain of salt. The networks won't report these because they are unreliable at this point and because of the great caution they are taking to avoid another 2000 debacle.

Re: Sorry, but these aren't "secret"

[NaDrew]

do you call a baseball game based on the score in the 4th inning?

You do if you're Dusty Baker and it's game six of the 2002 World Series.
Sorry, "still bitter", party of one...

Re:Sorry, but these aren't "secret"

[Karma Farmer]

Especially if they call it in favor of the liberal AGAIN and are wrong AGAIN.

When did that happen? I just remember 2000, when they called it for George Bush (who is a republican, but most emphatically not conservative).

Exit polls would throw the election

[mind21_98]

I'm not sure if it's a good idea for Slate to be posting exit polls. Exit polls tend to throw elections when they're very close, IMHO, and we cannot afford to have the election be in doubt this time around.

BTW: if you're reading this and you haven't voted yet, GO VOTE.

Re: Exit polls would throw the election

[Black Parrot]

> I'm glad that they posted the exit poll numbers. It looks like Kerry is firmly in the lead in Ohio which means I don't have to waste my time standing in line forever.

When too many people think that way, they risk treating themselves to a nasty surprise.

Re:Exit polls would throw the election

[antv]

Please do stay.
Your vote really matters - and don't forget, those polls are preliminary.
Don't just hope for victory - go and win it.

Re:Exit polls would throw the election

[Henry V .009]

Isn't the news media in the business of influencing elections by providing information?

Re:Exit polls would throw the election

[spacecowboy420]

He was ahead at the end as well....

Re:Exit polls would throw the election

[Eustace Tilley]

Tricksy anonymous Republican hobbitses!

race2004.net

[timothv]

There's also constant updates at race2004.net

Victory for Kerry

[Profane MuthaFucka]

Kerry's going to win at least 306 electoral points, since he's picking up Iowa according to the late results.

To the guy who stole my Kerry sign in the middle of the day: Congratulations, you've got yourself a nice sign.

Me: the guy I voted for is going to become the President.

Today is a really good day indeed. Hey buddy, Enjoy that fucking sign!

having more information isn't a bad thing.

[artifex2004]

As long as the readers know it's just first data and not worth much right now, I think it's fine.

Besides, maybe it will convince voters in certain states who were going to give their vote to a protest candidate, or not vote at all, that it's closer in some states that were expected to be solidly in favor of one candidate or another, and so maybe their vote might actually matter after all.

Sure would hate for it to come down to under a thousand votes again, and be someone who threw away my chance to change the outcome.

Of course, all this is theoretical - in my state, Texas, there's really no chance of it being close.

Re:having more information isn't a bad thing.

[AuMatar]

Not at all. The heart of democracy is comprimise. Trying to find a solution thats acceptable to all (or as many as possible) people involved. This means in Congress sometimes you need to vote for something you dislike in order to get a vote for something you do like. Or that you need to vote for something midway between two views, because its better than nothing. In elections, this means sometimes you need to vote for a comprimise candidate (Kerry) rather than have nothing done at all (Bush).

Ethics?

[stinerman]

I'm not so sure this is ethically the right thing to do, as it may have a bearing on the election if many people see it. Recall the problems in Florida in 2000 when Fox called the state for Gore. I believe the McLauglin Group said that quite a few western Floridians (a strongly Republican area) did not vote because of the news.

If the news is supposed to be unbiased, and allowing polling information is to bias the electorate, then perhaps they should just sit on the information until that state is closed.

Can't we impatient Americans wait until tomorrow to find out who won?

Re:Ethics?

[Unordained]

Or we could just expect people not to be stupid: no matter how they're calling it, vote anyway. It's not the media's fault that people are lazy enough to stay home if they think they can't win or have alread won (if we can really call it winning) ... publish the data. People only get the government they deserve anyway.

Any word on HULK, the Green Party Candidate?

[xmas2003]

When the halloween webcam votingclosed last night, the numbers were:
HULK: 15,020 BUSH: 14,531 KERRY: 14,192
but it is open for voting (for the last night) in 2 hours.

But I don't see the Big Green Guy listed in Slate's numbers, so it doesn't bode well for Hulk for President

Here is the "Afternoon Results"

[Daetrin]

(I had to change the formating a bit to get it over the minimum allowed line length)

"Afternoon Exit Polls - The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer - Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT - The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:

Florida - Kerry 52 - Bush 48

Ohio - Kerry 52 - Bush 47

Michigan - Kerry 51 - Bush 48

Pennsylvania - Kerry 58 - Bush 42

Iowa - Kerry 50 - Bush 48

Wisconsin - Kerry 53 - Bush 47

Minnesota - Kerry 57 - Bush 42

New Hampshire - Kerry 58 - Bush 41

Maine - Kerry 55 - Bush 44

New Mexico - Kerry 49 - Bush 49

Nevada - Kerry 48 - Bush 49

Colorado - Kerry 49 - Bush 50

Arkansas - Kerry 45 - Bush 54

North Carolina - Kerry 47 - Bush 53"

It's still too early to be sure about anything, but this is a lot better than i've been fearing for the past few weeks.

Heavy turnout

[craw]

and cell-phones tell the story. A heavy turnout means that younger people are voting, and they favor Kerry. It was means that there are also many first-time voters; this also favors Kerry.

A lot of young people never get contacted in the National polls as the pollsters usually do not call cell phone numbers.

Zobgy calls it for Kerry

[waynegoode]

Why bother counting, or even finishing the voting? Zogby's already settled it. [end sarcasm]

Zogby has already called it for Kerry 311 to 213.

Early results/predictions are interesting, but that's all.

Election results: early or accurate, pick one.

Internal Democrat exit poll numbers

[Castaa]

Take these with a grain of salt but here you go:

5PM EST exit polls... From an email sent by a Demo staffer on the Hill.

PRESIDENTIAL
FLorida: Kerry up by four
Ohio: Kerry up by five
Michigan: Kerry up by four
Pennsyvlania: Kerry up by 16
Iowa: Kerry up by 2
Wisconsin: Kerry up by 5
Minnesota: Kerry up by 15
Nevada: Bush up by one
New Mexico: tied at 49
Virginia: Bush up by one
North Carolina: Bush up by 5
Maine: 55-44 Kerry, with Kerry winning both congressional districts avoiding an electoral college split.
Colorado: Kerry inched up to 51-49 lead as of 3 pm

I hardly think that's an issue...

[fmaxwell]

Would Michael have posted this if Bush was in the lead?

Who cares? It's news. Michael is just some guy who posts stories on Slashdot. I really don't think that determining what his political views are is nearly as important as determing who is going to be the next President of the United States.

May as well act on it.

[dtfinch]

It you're in Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, or North Carolina, are registered to vote, and haven't voted, and the polls are still open, get your ass to the polls. They are very close.

What is this?

[Daetrin]

Every exit poll i've seen says Florida is leaning towards Kerry by about 1 or 2 percent, however NBC says that with 22% of the precincts reporting that Florida is 55% for Bush, which seems well outside what i'd expect for the margin error.

So are we just getting an odd set of precincts reporting first, or is the official vote vastly different (statistically speaking) from the exit polls?

[tinfoil-hat]
At what point do we demand some kind of investigation, especially given the number of Diebold machines in Florida? This is the first time i've been glad for the exit polls, which will hopefully provide some check on votes getting changed after they're cast.
[/tinfoil-hat]

Re:What is this?

[Neil Blender]

So are we just getting an odd set of precincts reporting first, or is the official vote vastly different (statistically speaking) from the exit polls?

Speaking for myself, if someone I know (in real life, not the from the internet) asks me who I am for, I tell them it's not their business. If a pollster asks me, I am as likely to lie as I am to tell them I am not comfortable divulging my choice. I think if you are for Bush, you are probably a little more inclined to decline or lie. <flamebait> Probably something to do with the rabid hatred demonstrated repeatedly by some liberals.</flamebait>

Re:What is this?

[Daetrin]

Everything i've read recently has said that historically the incumbant doesn't usually get any higher in the election than they did in the last poll before the election, which seems to indicate that if anything the polls skew towards the incumbant. If so that trend has certainly been destroyed this election.

Wow, did anyone else hear Aaron Brown?

[ravenspear]

He just "blasted the system" on CNN talking about how we all keep voting for the same crap year after year and how the lobbyists control everything and how the major parties rig things to keep others out.

I think that's about the most insightful thing I've heard from any major media outlet this whole election cycle, and it totally blew me away. I never expected anyone from the major media to wise up that much, and even if they did I wouldn't have expected them to air anything like that. CNN gets my support for political coverage if they keep this up.

In 2000, they called for Gore prematurely

[GQuon]

In 2000, they called Florida for Gore prematurely, while the polls in Florida were still open. (They switched to Bush during the night.)
Wolf Blitzer, Larry King etc. were talking about that mess just now on CNN, and how that was an embarassing mistake.
This year, they waited untill all the polls in the state closed, before calling the state. And now they will be more careful, looking more closely at the actual vote numbers and having three possible outcomes: Bush, Kerry or Too close to call.

I see the mods have been watching F911 along with the rest of the world.