Slashdot Mirror
Hands Down, Palm is Now Number Two
jamesl writes "InformationWeek reports that the number one PDA operating system now comes from Redmond, 48.1% last quarter (41.2% a year ago) compared to 29.8% (46.9% last year) for PalmSource. The big gainer was RIM, up to 19.8% from 4.9%. Linux ... a valient 0.9%, off slightly from last years' 1.9%.
The article has some thoughts about where the market is going with phones taking on more PDA functions."
Article seems to be /.ed so:
j html?articleID=52601413
----
Microsoft Seizes PDA Market Lead From PalmSource
Microsoft led the market in the third quarter for operating systems used in personal digital assistants, surpassing for the first time the Palm OS that dominated the handheld-computer segment for years.
By Antone Gonsalves, TechWeb, InformationWeek
Nov. 12, 2004
URL: http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.
Microsoft Corp. led the market in the third quarter for operating systems used in personal digital assistants, surpassing for the first time the Palm OS that dominated the handheld-computer segment for years.
The Redmond, Wash., company shipped 1.38 million units of Windows CE in the quarter ended Sept. 30, accounting for 48.1 percent of the market, researcher Gartner Inc. said Friday. PalmSource trailed far behind with 850,821 units, or 29.8 percent of the market.
During the same period a year ago, PalmSource shipped 1.2 million units, 46.9 percent of the market, compared with Microsoft's 1.04 million units, or 41.2 percent.
The switch was not a surprise, given PalmSource's focus on supplying an OS for advanced cellular phones, called "smartphones," that contain many of the same features as PDAs, such as contact lists, personal calendars and email. PalmSource's Palm OS is used in smartphones from PalmOne Inc. and Kyocera Wireless Corp.
"They've abdicated their leadership in the PDA market in order to become a significant player in the smartphone market," Gartner analyst Todd Kort said of PalmSource.
The market's No. 3 operating system is from Research In Motion Ltd, which supplies the OS for its own BlackBerry PDA, a device that's popular among businesspeople. OS shipments increased more than 350 percent in the quarter to 565,000 units from 123,775 a year ago. RIM's market share rose to 19.8 percent from 4.9 percent.
Linux was the No. 4 operating system, but its market share dropped to 0.9 percent from 1.9 percent a year ago.
Driven by RIM's success with the Blackberry, the overall PDA hardware market increased in the quarter 13.6 percent to 2.86 million units from 2.52 million units a year ago, according to Gartner. The same driver is expected to account for most of a 4 percent increase for the year to about 12 million units.
Given the PDA market trends, it makes sense for PalmSource to switch its marketing and research and development focus to smartphones. Shipments of the advanced cellular phones are increasing rapidly at the expense of the PDA market, which has been slipping steadily, Kort said. In addition, smartphones have higher profit margins.
"(PalmSource) could fight a little harder, but it's probably smarter to let (market share) slip and put more of the resources on smartphones," Kort said.
RIM's Blackberry is expected to keep the PDA market growing through the first half of next year, Gartner said. In the second half, however, sales are expected to slow, and the overall market is forecast to post a decline for all of 2005.
PDA sales, however, are expected to eventually stabilize within a mature market that's becoming increasingly dependent on businesspeople. Companies are expected to account for 40 percent of sales this year, compared with 29 percent in 2003, according to Gartner.
While consumers can get enough of the PDA's capabilities in a cellular phone, business executives and sales people will prefer the PDA's larger screen for calling up business documents and email attachments while on the road, Kort said.
PalmOne, the largest user of the Palm OS, led the PDA hardware market, but continued to lose market share to other vendors as it too shifted focus to smartphones. PalmOne's share slipped to 26.2 percent from 34.3 percent a year ago.
No. 2 Hewlett-Packard Co. increased market share to 24.2 percent from 23 percent, followed by RIM, which posted a huge jump to 19.8 percent from 4.9 percent. Rounding out the top five were Dell Inc., 6.5 percent from 5.4 percent; and Symbol Technologies Inc., 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent.
Much to my dismay I have just discovered that the latest Psion handheld is running "Wince".
R.I.P. EPOC 5, a decent little OS that did what it was designed to do.
Link ... they might be blocking links from /. ?
Except that including devices such as Treo600 wouldn't be favorable for Palm either. In that category Symbian is by far the most popular OS.
Is this just a troll to bait links to one of the many explanations of the meaning of the phrase "begs the question"?
Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
Palm phones are - sadly - not as widely distributed in Europe. Well, Denmark, at any rate.
This report is bunk. The results don't count the Treo -- PalmOne's best seller and the leading "smartphone" out there.
How appropriate. You fight like a cow.
Good point, but not relevant to this article. It only measures sell-through, not past market share.
My last Palm was a Zire 21 that cam free with a laptop. What surprises me is that I can't see any real change from my ancient IIIx.
Seriously, four years ago the Palm was a pretty nice deal. It handled a number of essential functions well, did it better than paper, and synced with your PC.
At the time it was the market leader for a reason.
Trouble is I keep looking at all of the things which reasonably should have evolved or been added and all that I see are the things that are missing, and the software that hasn't particularly improved in four years.
All things being equal, the mid range Palm feels like it should be a $49 retail item, if that.
Three Squirrels
The key advantage PocketPCs have over Palms is the Microsoft backs it's OS with hundreds of millions in marketing dollars. Remember, 30% of Dells revenue comes directly from Microsoft in the way of marketing dollars. The market has been getting purchased by Microsoft since they came up with MS Windows CE some 8+ years ago. Remember, the original market choose PalmOS and it has cost Microsoft BILLIONS to get into the 40% quarterly sales level in a shrinking market. That is not something to be proud of IMO.
Do you think that Microsofts WinCE division would have been losing around $250 million per quarter( for the last 8+ years ) if Microsoft was not paying people/companies to use it? Unlikely.
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
These things (i600s) simply do not work as advertised. Verizon is lying on their page that says product info. For instance, they claim 240 hours of standby battery time with the default battery. Now, Windows 2003 upgrade has doubled battery performance, where I can almost get 1 full day (24 hours) STANDBY time on my i600 with the normal battery, this is with 0 use. They do include a double size battery that you can actually use for 1 morning-night period of normal use, but heavy use? forget it with these. One of the people at work had one and went hunting, kept the extended battery connected but the phone OFF for the friday night-sunday afternoon time frame, and the battery was DEAD when he got back. So, if you used BOTH batterys, and the phone was OFF the entire time, you would NOT get the 240 hours "STANDBY" time that Verizon claims on their page.
Next problem is basically a BSOD on these things, The same guy who took his hunting just got his replaced with a brand new one from Samsung because he couldn't make calls. Now he can't RECEIVE calls. If you call his phone it crashes. The interior display goes black, and the exterior LCD says "missed call".. We had 11 of these phones, and every single one was junk, was quirky, did NOT perform anywhere near as advertised.
The data sync.. forget about it. One day you get emails with only a 20-30 minute delay, next day no emails come to your phone, next day you get duplicates of the same emails you got the first day, but still none from the second day...
Anyways, I'll wait for the class action, in the meantime, DO NOT BUY Samsung i600's with Windows on them, they are total garbage...
Oh, if you want to ignore me, I still have 9 of them for sale $300 each, gently used.
My Linux Command of the Day site : LCOD
Well, this does remind me of Novell versus NT 4 Server. I wonder what "Microsoft is 1st" really means.
As a two-time Palm buyer, I certainly agree with many of the comments on the thread about Palm not working hard enough to keep up. But the last time I owned a product that MS targeted (RealPlayer Plus - still have my version 4.0 CD), the vendor retailated by trying to milk me as a loyal user - charging an annual fee in order to get continual access to their "new improved" product releases, as they attempted to fend off MS' attack. So of course I switched, not to MS Media Player, but WinAmp and MusicMatch. Yes, I have multiple players now, but I won't be abused by any vendor - Ms or whomever.
For the Palms, I use observation here. I think there are 4 markets now: (1) PDA Classic, (2) PDA-Phone, (3) PDA-Email, and (4) PDA-Wireless. Palm seems to be moving from type 1 to type 2, while RIM is focused on Type 3, and WINCE on type 4. I think for many of us, our expectation was for PALM to do #1, and #3/#4 (both email and real 802.11x wireless). Type 2 is really where Handspring went, and their acquisition meant Palm became mainly #1 and #2. So the real question is can one vendor do all types?
Why this is important is again based on observation. I use a Zire 71 as a type #1; and I carry a cell phone. I bought the Zire knowing it would likely be the last type #1 I would buy, but I am happy with it. I also have a significant ($100+) investment in 3rd party programs and a 128MB SD card. I figured this would all last a while (3 years / 2003-2006). My cell on the other hand is quite **flakey**, and is only 3 years old. Seems to me its problems are due to some cell phone lifecyle expectation of only 24 to 36 months of life. If this is also the PALM expectation, then I can see part of the problem. A PDA is a platform just like any other; I don't want my investment abandoned. Those calling for less backward compatibility are fine with me, but if I have to abandon everything I have, why stay with PALM? Less investment might have meant I would have gone WINCE last time.
Back to the types, and Palm's market share. ISSUE 1: Type 4 - wireless - is really important to the commercial market, where WinCE to Windows development similarity becomes important. How many of the Symbol and other industrial Wireless handhelds are now WINCE based? PalmSource was supposed to have addressed this, but they are focused on the phones.
ISSUE 2: RIM has really taken off for Type 3 (PDA-Email). Even though my company (Global IT Services) has no "official" PDA policy, so many of the managers now own RIMs that it is becoming impossible not to be a delivery or sales manager w/o one (I am neither, and don't want more than the cell phone as a leash for now). Many of these folks used to carry PALMs, but being able to get to email (and for folks to get to them) has become indespensible. Many of the RIMS are also Phones, but most still carry cell phones and the RIMs. We just need to add instant messaging to the RIMS for two-way conversations, and I think it will have a lock.
ISSUE 3: Lots of competition for Type 2. While Palm has a good entry in the Trio series, this is a much tougher market - competing with SONY-Erikson, Moto, Nokia, et. al. More competition = fewer overall sales, lower margins, and more frequent (and costly) product cycles.
ISSUE 4: New competition in the original Type 1 space. I was surprised to see that the iPod has calendaring and address capability. I suppose I shouldn't be; what I am saying is it is not enough for PALM to just sell Type 1's that are just PDA's any longer. This market seems to be in the process of morphing into stand-alone devices that replicate mainly for other purposes - like music and pictures. Too bad PALM didn't recognize this earlier / where is the ZIRE with the 4 GB hard drive?? Would make music and making movies to disk much easier.
To me it is the additional competition and the evolution of the market that is killing PALM