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MMOG Subscriptions Update
As he does every few months, SirBruce has updated his page detailing Massively Multiplayer Online Game subscription numbers. No major additions this time around, just some minor tweaks reflecting recent trends. FFXI is way up, with EQ taking a slight dip. No data on EQ2 is included yet. For slightly cynical further analysis, Anyuzer provides us with his opinions.
Yeah, no shit that FFXI would be "way up." They just finally got their asses around to releasing the European version of the game. So finally, three years after the original release, European players can play.
Except it to drop massively by the end of next month as the people still playing it to waste time until EQ2 and WoW cancel their accounts.
I think the next few months for SWG should be do or die time. They have had their Jedi re-structuring, JTS and I think they have a combat revamp coming up. If all of that doesn't fix it, nothing will.
I remember the Realm Online, that game has been around for ages, one of the first graphical ones ever released, initially by Sierra, and it's still around. I find it interesting from the Q&A from the Cities of Heroes put on the front page of slashdot earlier (I don't feel like linking) states there are no "blockbuster" MMORPG, and in the graph it shows Lineage at the highest currently, with over 2.25 mil.
Lineage? How can this game be so popular? I've played it...I've played it again...I just don't get it.
Yes yes yes, it's huge in Korea...that's always thrown at us, Korea. Every man, woman and child in Korea playes MMORPG's since the day they're born blah blah blah. I get that. But Korea doesn't have any other game to play there? I mean, are they forced to play this or something?
Ok, this isn't a troll, it really isn't. Do people here play that game and if so, what is the draw for you? Just because I don't get it doesn't mean someone else doesn't.
"Leo Fender was in a 'state of grace' when he designed the Stratocaster." -- Paul Reed Smith
With Everquest2 already out, World of Warcraft coming out on the 23erd and The Matrix Online coming out on 1/18/05 the old leaders in the MMORPG genre are going to start to slip, EQ's dip is only the beginning of a major shakeup in the MMORPG market.
**insert favorite profound quotation here**
Looking at his data it seems that he might be a bit bias toward a certain game. There are only 19 data points for Lineage while there are double that for games that have released later on. He doesn't tell what time of year these statistics were taken and he doesn't provide a set time interval between his recordings. It is good data, but nothing that could show any grand results. The only thing this is good for is telling who is on top at the moment, which might not always be accurate by his scale either. I would like to see accurate readings and maybe some prediction likes, something more like a stock market plot would give a lot better data, especially where there are only a couple hundred users separating the competitors. Since he is the only person I have seen doing this I guess I cannot complain.
redvsblue.com
::BANG!::
Sarge: Did you just shoot yourself in the foot?
Simmons: Yeah I do that sometimes now..
The combat revamp was delayed by the JTL expansion. While JTL isn't perfect, they did manage to essentially add a second complete game to SWG, integrating it very well with those who don't have the expansion. The most interesting thing about JTL is how it has drastically altered the economy. Prior to JTL resources were selling for about 1 credit per unit, now the resources needed for making ships are going for as high as 10-15 credits per unit. This is happening on all servers and is confirmed by reading the shipwright profession forum.
JTL's ship combat is FPS like Tachyon or Starlancer or similar. It's pretty nice compared to the turn-based combat on the ground. What they've done for higher-level pilots are extra ship skills. There are also different levels of responsiveness for ships and ship components, altering things like energy regeneration and rate of fire. It doesn't change the FPS feel, but not everyone fights at the same level. It is now not just natural ability but also how good the gear is that you can put together for your ship.
I don't think World of Warcraft and Everquest 2 are going to seriously affect City of Heroes. The kind of quick-easy action, no crafting game-play that CoH exemplifies is pretty much unique in the MMO sphere.
In Seoul this fall, I visited a good number of their very cool "PC Rooms" (pronounced "PC bong" ... lol). I was determined to find out the Lineage - Korea Connection !! Gotta admit first this might not be the whole story because some of the details were lost in the language barrier. Yeah, it's true, Lineage is big-time popular there. However, I think I discovered at least part of the reason behind the popularity. Apparently, entering one's Korean ID number (might not have been a national ID number, maybe tied to a phone number?) unlocked one free Lineage / Lineage II account. As much as I wanted to play, no one had any idea how a westerner without this ID number could register on the Korean Lineage servers, and I tried about four crowded "PC Rooms" with the same results. One guy actually let me register with their unused ID number saying he was never planning to use his Lineage II account. Although a weird server problem kept it from working, I got to see the whole registration process, and it was remarkably unobtrusive (no immediate questions about credit cards, home telephone numbers, next of kin... American companies, are you listening?). While I don't think the game is entirely free to Koreans, I do think Lineage makes it very easy for Koreans to get started maybe offering an automatic free month or so. Even still, consider these regular players are walking out of their apartments down to the "PC Room" (generally one per two/three blocks sometimes more or less). It was surprising finding at even 7 AM Saturday there were people down there racking up XPs online!
Of course it is just a play style but it is one that is not there in the korean games.
At least not with korean players. At a previous job we had some contact with asian companies and I got to know 2 geeks who were into ragnarok. They were rather amazed at the way westerners played it. All solo and not chatting just bend on leveling up.
To them these games are far more social afairs. Kinda like how some people play bridge or whatever. Not as a serious competition but as just something to do while they chat.
Think IRC with pictures.
Most games can be done like that. You got people who play bingo and turn it into a party and you got people killing each other because the other shouted bingo to early.
Some men go fishing as an excuse to sleep during the day away from the wife. Others throw stones at watersporters.
If I read some of the reviews of EQ2 and WoW (and seen the way some people play SWG) then I almost feel they are playing a solo Diablo/Baldur gates style game with online ladder/ranking system.
It is not that lineage or ragnarok can't be played in the same way. It is just that its rather simple nature also lends itself more easily to chat while playing it.
For some reason checkers or monopoly is more often a fun game played for playing with others then chess. Perhaps party games need to be simpler.
If you are playing in a nice group then lineage and ragnarok can be fun. If the more solo style play does it for you then the western games offer more. Wich is better? Neither, both are multiplayer games but the motivation for you wanting to play multiplayer might make you choose one or the other.
Oh and think about this. More people are playing korean RPG's with all their horrible western support then are playing ALL western games. Perhaps they got something right.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Perhaps. People have invested an awfull lot of time with their EQ1 characters. Are they really willing to start all over?
WoW has had a lot of positive reviews but nothing truly staggering. Nothing to suggest that people not yet involved with MMO games will take it up. Will it be enough to take people away from characters they invested a lot in to try a new game?
SWG has released JTL. The figures are not yet in on how good or bad it is doing. SWG has a lot of dual even tripple accounts (1 player having more then one payed for account). JTL really doesn't have a reason for you owning more then 1 account. Will the sales reflect this? Will new people start joining? I seen a couple but the server is not exactly being flooded with newbies.
Guildwars is trying a different license system with no monthly fee, you just pay for the game and any expansion packs they bring out.
We had a whole bunch of western MMO's come out but only SWG DAoC seem to be have achieved some success.
EQ's dip is hardly a dip if the drop is going directly into a rise of EQ2. Sony will not be worried if EQ1 entire subscriber base goes over into EQ2. What will really worry them if they don't. Since the dip is happening now this means that either people have decided to leave EQ1 without waiting for WOW without just sticking with their characters and waiting for WoW to come out and wow them away.
I think WoW will perhaps not be as big a change as blizzard hopes. Yes in some ways it looks good but they also been amazingly reluctant to truly open up their betas to europeans. Have they got something to hide?
I don't play demoless games. MMO's are just to expenive to try.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
That dip in EQ subscription seems pretty normal to me. MMORPGs are getting overly common these days, and people would be looking for something new (i.e., newer than what they already have). I'll be interested to see how EQ2 comes out though, although I suspect it'll have a low subscription as well, since it's a sequel to an already-released game, and people might be skeptical of it's new gameplay/features/graphics/whatever.
Who the frick do I have to talk to at Slashdot to get them to stop accepting stories that don't use a cache for my web site? My bandwidth is limited at the moment:s criptions.html
http://pw1.netcom.com.nyud.net:8090/~sirbruce/Sub
Bruce
Folks are talking a lot about WoW's upcoming release, and rightly so. It really is going to be the big beasty game it's been promised to be.
But to counter the WoW love I'm seeing I'd like to offer some thoughts on the game's quality for a particular segment of the market: the PvPer.
Caveats: I'm an ex-Clan Lord, ex-Shadowbane player. I enjoy questing and other PvE-type activities for the social aspects, but to put it simply I find playing against the computer damned unsatisfying, fairly quickly. Of course I know serious PvP isn't for everyone, but for those of us who aren't willing to bother unless there's a human on the other side to challenge us with player (NOT character) skill, strategy and quick thinking, there's no substitute.
Executive Summary of my thoughts on WoW PvP: Not Ready for Prime Time, but Lots of Potential. The game is so clearly built around a PvE/questing model its deficiencies in PvP really stand out. However, the engine is robust and looks great, even on sub-standard hardware like mine. I think the problems for PvP posed by a largely PvE game are overcomable, but it's going to take some very significant ruleset/mechanics changes before it's worth it.
Specific problems:
- PvP is Meaningless. It's basically a multi-person duel with no stakes involved. You don't lose anything but a couple of minutes - or less - spent respawning; no loot, little damage to your gear, no money, no experience, NOTHING. There's no recognition for a PvP kill, no death list, no guild/race/area messages about who's kicking who's ass. You can't loot a corpse, you can sit and stare at it until the player decides to respawn, when you can kill them again with no consequences for either of you. Yay.
- Any sort of operational tactics are pointless, because you can't hold territory or ground unless you round up all your enemies, they kindly allow you to kill them all in the same place, and you corpse-camp them. Otherwise they can just rez for free, rapidly, regroup and attack. Everything's a running battle with no center, no topographical advantage, no flanks, no nothing, just a mess.
- All classes are the same speed unmounted. This is ridiculous, and it makes finishing kills a joke if your main damage route is melee. You need potions/gear to move faster, which brings me to my next point.
- The game is dependent on items. This is so Everquest-y it's not even funny. Whether you're skilled or not matters far less than the items you have equipped and, therefore, the time you spent farming to get them (or for the money to buy them at auction). This SUCKS. Some augmentation by items is fine, but this game is ALL about items. And level. Which also sucks. Skill and strategy anticipation is a very distant consideration.
In the brief time I was playing I had a several Horde players complain (this is through their Alliance alts and buddies) that I was exploiting because they for some reason couldn't cast when they wanted to. I was just using the rogue attack Kick; when they looked it up (if they bothered) they complained that it's too powerful to use against players. Come oooonnnnn. In that same vein people were screaming bloody murder and shouting to GMs anytime Horde players mounted a raid. This was on a "PVP SERVER."
Brief aside on player skill v. character skill, cause that's a differentiation that I know a lot of PvE gamers don't make. In general I'm talking about knowledge of your opponent's capabilities, knowledge of your own and the facility to advantageously match yours against his. Facing your enemy with strength in the areas of his weakness, to paraphrase Sun Tzu.
- The group mechanics are rudimentary. Max players in a group is not high enough for PvP and there's no way to move in formation. Presentation of group stats - with the portrait and all - is too clunky to make proper use of against human players.
- Far as I know there's no mouse-push camera option. There needs to be if there's not.
- The combat abilities are built aroun
I have run into all sorts of people that seem intent ONLY on the level as fast as possible, grind, grind, grind mentality. They don't play the game to enjoy what the game offers, they don't read into the story quests, they don't converse with other players, unless they absolutely have to. It doesn't make much sense to me to play that way.
Playing like that would become so boring that there would be little to no reason to continue playing the game. There's only so much content available to the Solo player, after that is used up, players have to 'make' their own content, by being social with one another. Building Player Cities, joining PA's and getting involved in PA Wars and such.
Those solo players might as well be playing a MMORPG like Anarchy Online, which the last time I played it was totally geared for Solo play. In fact, that game seemed design to push people into solo play. There's no kind of 'community' that can be built inside the confines of that game. There aren't any Player Cities, there were no 'Static' dungeons that required player's to interact with one another. Anarchy Online is a Solo Player's Wet Dream.
If you ignore the other uses of a tool, does that make the tool less useful, or you less useful?
FYI, thanks to Slashdot's continued lack of care, my web site will be down for some time due to lack of bandwidth. Whether or not I choose to block Slashdot links in the future depends on their willingness to respond to my pleas.
Bruce
SirBruce,
Will you be updating with EQ2/WoW data as it becomes available? I'm very interested to know what type of market share each obtains initially, and also to compare the launches in terms of smoothness.
Anyone have info on current subcriptions/concurrency loads on EQ2 or WoW? I'm curious. EQ2's launch has been smooth, but I wonder if the two games are dealing with similar numbers.