Astronaut: 'Single-Planet Species Don't Last'

An anonymous reader writes "Gemini, Apollo and Space Shuttle astronaut John Young, due to retire in two weeks, says that the human species is in danger of becoming extinct: 'The statistical risk of humans getting wiped out in the next 100 years due to a super volcano or asteroid or comet impact is 1 in 455. How does that relate? You're 10 times more likely to get wiped out by a civilization-ending event in the next 100 years than you are getting killed in a commercial airline crash.' He says that the technologies needed to colonize the solar system will help people survive through disasters on Earth. Young has written about this topic before in an essay called 'The Big Picture'." In related news, the Shuttle overhaul program is on track for a May 2005 launch.

Comments

1 in 455?

[mlong]

I wonder if he included historial observations in his odds. You know...like the fact we've been here for hundreds of thousands of years without getting wipd out. Or how about that our population is the biggest it has ever been which increases the odds that at least 1 human would survive a meteor impact, etc.

No need to prove - assume the worst

[October_30th]

Yep. Let's just keep all our eggs in one basket and bet on the chances that ~5 billion people won't be wiped out by any single event.