Slashdot Mirror
Astronaut: 'Single-Planet Species Don't Last'
An anonymous reader writes "Gemini, Apollo and Space Shuttle astronaut John Young, due to retire in two weeks, says that the human species is in danger of becoming extinct: 'The statistical risk of humans getting wiped out in the next 100 years due to a super volcano or asteroid or comet impact is 1 in 455. How does that relate? You're 10 times more likely to get wiped out by a civilization-ending event in the next 100 years than you are getting killed in a commercial airline crash.' He says that the technologies needed to colonize the solar system will help people survive through disasters on Earth. Young has written about this topic before in an essay called 'The Big Picture'." In related news, the Shuttle overhaul program is on track for a May 2005 launch.
You're 10 times more likely to get wiped out by a civilization-ending event in the next 100 years than you are getting killed in a commercial airline crash.
I've heard of numerous commercial airline fatalities in the news. Can't say I've heard of any civilization-ending events in my lifetime.
Sounds like FUD to me.
Why always look at the negative side of things? It would reduce the problem of slashdotting websites...
Kewl!
Agile Artisans
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
- Jack, Fight Club
Sometime you hear people talk like they're going to live forever. Well I got news for you.
NOT!
What he really meant to say is this:
The statistical risk of humans getting wiped out in the next 100 years due to a super volcano or asteroid or comet impact would be 1 in 455--were it not for the heroic actions of one man, his wise-cracking, non-WASP sidekick, and a plucky band of researcher/rock star/mercenaries...
Obliteracy: Words with explosions
I've always said, "The meek shall inherit the Earth. The rest of us are getting the hell off this rock!"
Bryan
Hello - the title of this /. article is misleading...
You must be new here.
... I don't think that ~5 billion people could be wiped out by any single event that left the planet habitable afterwards...
You don't work in the PR department for the dinosaur government do you?
Don't go to a brothel if you want to buy broth
"Dinosaurs are extinct because they didn't have a space program."
Says everything, really.
Make me a friend and I'll mod you up
"What other higher order species that has multi planet colonization did he do his evaluation against?"
The Great Old Ones and their minions? Those Mi-Go are pretty hardy buggers.
On the specifics of this report's premise, it seems to me to be a hell of a lot cheaper (and more realistic at the present) to ensure humanity's survival by being able to "Go Deep". If the we could harness geothermal power down deep, we could power lights that could grow plants in our subterranean cities, etc. and keep ourselves going.
Sure we'd end up living on glowing fungus in the end, and evolve big giant eyes and go all pasty-white pale, but then when we travel back in time to visit Earth in the 1960s-80s we'll look like we're supposed to.
Must be Friday. I need a drink.
---
Cthulhu holiday songs, for the gift that keeps on loathing.
How do you get certification though? Who do we contact for more information?
Level 3: Master of the entire energy capacity of a single galaxy
Level 4: masters of the universe
Level 5: All power put in one place and given to one man for justice - He-man.
Level 2 is only permanent if you don't piss off any of the higher leveled species so much that they wipe you out.
Mod me down and I will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine!
He's neglected to mention some things from the first figure.
First of all, it's a 1 in 455 chance of being wiped out by asteroids, volcanic activity, comets, vampires, dark elves, zombies, or McDonald's, but he seemed to convenienly leave off the end of the list.
Secondly, he forgot to mention that this takes into account the fact that all humans who have not broken the code of the Greblor (roughly 96.3%) will be delivered by the benevolent lizard Godzilla back unto our home planet - a place of safety and prosperity in another dimension. Only the evil, self-destructive humans will remain.
Further, it is predicted that 97.1% of those who stay will be delivered in the second coming of Godzilla after having repented of their evil ways.
So as you can see, most of us have nothing to worry about. They neglected to mention the other parts of the report, which actually explain why the numbers are obviously true.
Mod me down and I will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine!
Because you don't have to worry about geological or comological events in the past killing you.
Prosperity is only an instrument to be used, not a deity to be worshipped. Calvin Coolidge
whining how we would have been wiped out long ago in the past if his numbers are right:
Statistics were only recently discovered, hence they didn't apply back then.
Stupids.
Extinction of the dinosaur, what really happened was...
Yeah, and I hate getting those dinosaur droppings on my clean car!
Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
I think you're forgetting about ninjas!
The Farewell Tour II
Paging Fred Saberhagen. Dr. Saberhagen, phone 322.
Shop as usual. And avoid panic buying.
Level 0: What humans are now. Level 1: Mastery of the entire energy capacity of a single planet Level 2: Mastery of the entire energy capacity of a single solar system Level 3: ???? Level 4: Profit!!
What if Tetris was invented by Nazis?
Sweet! With all this talk about colonizing other planets, I have now have cosmic justification for buying an X-Box so I can start playing Halo/2 immediately!
The evil U.S. would never try to feed the hungry. If fact. GWB himself likes to go to third world countries and steal food. He then puts it in a secret bunker under the White House, where it sits there and rots. He would never eat it himself, because he maintains a steady diet of puppies and kittens.
Didn't you get the memo? These days he eats genetically engineered kippies (tm) instead of separately preparing puppies and kittens.
Look. The universe isn't going to make it. This thermodynamics we've got is whacked. In the real long run, we're all dead because of it. Build all the hyperspace drives and Dyson spheres you want, you won't stop entropy. Heat death of the universe. Game over, man. Game over.
If we don't get out of this reality soon, it's all over.
Obliteracy: Words with explosions
Ok, I know about negative growth but WTF are negative birth rates? "Today -20 children were born..."?
Linux is not Windows
Well that's only because calling them pittens didn't amount to much.
I think that any philosopher (or, indeed, any human) who thinks that the human race should die out for the good of the planet should go ahead and do it.
Hell, I'll buy them a full-page ad in the New York Times. "Joe Treehugger killed himself to end overpopulation in America. Thanks, Joe!"
What a bunch of morons.
Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!