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Game Industry Not Bigger Than Hollywood
The Grumpy Gamer has a counterpoint to the oft mentioned argument that the games industry is bigger business than the movie industry. From the article: "The domestic US box office is estimated to be around $9B for 2004, and this is where the myth starts to take life. The problem is the movie industry is a lot bigger then just the U.S. box office. DVD sales and rentals for 2003 topped $16B. VHS sales and rentals for 2003 was $6.4B. VHS sales are declining fast, but most of that will just shift over to DVDs, which brings the grand total for non-box office movie sales to over $20B, twice the figure for the entire game industry."
Maybe they'll hit $25B if the keep getting torrent and eMule trackers taken down. They need the money.
The real question: Is the rental industry bigger than the Movie theater industry?
Do these figures take into account game rentals?
Mercy was given to me by Christ...I must give the same to others.
So...
Which sells more merchandising?
Which sells more novel versions?
Which sells more subscriptions?
Which employs more people?
Which sells more disk media?
Which sells more theater tickets?
Here-in lies the problem with comparing any two industries.
no
At the same time, $10B is a lot of dough, no matter what you are comparing it to. The movie industry is "only" twice as big? Yeah, well, they have had over a hundred years to build that up. How long has it taken for the game industry to reach the halfway mark? At that rate, how long before it passes the $20B mark? It is impressive no matter how you look at it.
With the crap that coming out the theatres, I won't be long until other industries top them.
AC comments get piped to
Called entertainment.
Take a look behind the curtain.
Many video games are movie tie-ins.
Many movies are video game tie-ins.
Who chalks up the bucks for "The Incredibles" for XBox? The video game industry? The movie industry?
What about the revenue for the Doom movie? Video game industry? Movie industry?
What about the revenue for the endless talk tv drivel about the Doom game and movie?
My point is, the money ends up in the same pockets, for the most part.
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
This isn't a proper comparison, and it never was in my mind. If you go to a movie in a Theatre, you get to SEE the movie in its entirety, but you don't own it. On the contrary, if you want to get the full experience out of a video game, you'll either rent it until you are finished, or buy it from the store. You can't compare these 1 to 1 because you can't pay 8$ to play a game for 3 hours and be 'completely satisfied' and get closure from it. Now they want to compare Movies, VHS, and DVD sales to .. it looks like just plain Video Game Sales.. What about Video game rentals? How about all the gaming events that they have around the country? Im sure there's money being spent there.. Does this include arcade games that people plug coins into?
You can't just take a look at opening sales of a movie theatre and compare it to opening sales of a video game and claim either is bigger than the other.
At least, it seems flawed to me, but I've been working all day and am probably fried. Anyone have any opinions on this?
Its Deluxe, son. Deluxe!
Even though the bottom line of the movie houses dont see this, there seems to be a huge buying and selling of used games. Ive seen used LOTR xbox games that I can get for a 25% then any new ones. Of course, you needs to make sure they work.
Heck, even amazon.com encourages the buying and selling of used products.
The day that a crap movie comes out only to boost the sales of video game will this argument become interesting.
Tomb Raider
The Wizard
Super Mario Bros
Double Dragon
Street Fighter
Mortal Kombat
Pokemon
Final Fantasy - Spirits Within
Wing Commander
And coming soon to a theater near you.. Doom
These were all bullshit movies to schill the games, or "grow the franchise" in marketdrone speak.
There are more, many more if you want to include TV shows in the argument.
It's all the same "industry", the money winds up all in the same pockets.
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
Game rentals.
Game subscription fees.
Game swag sales.
International all of the above.
Factor those back in, and the game industry comes out back on top.
Bottom line: Games get a slightly larger share of consumer entertainment dollars than movies do. People also spend slightly more hours playing games than watching movies.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
And both are dwarfed by the porn industry. If you were to inclube porn in with movies though then well the videogame industry does not come even close. I would look up the stats on porn but I am at work and would rather not get fired today. I do recall porn being bigger than all of major league sports at the minimum.
Tinfoil hat? Naa, I long since replaced it with a reinforced titanium alloy.
Hit the buttons on your ps2 controller. If Toby McGuire jumps, it's a video game. If everything stops and you see a 'fuck off and die' FBI warning, it's a movie.
...that a lot of people associated with the games industry have this fascination with comparing themselves to the movie industry. We make just as much/more than the movie industry. We self-regulate our ratings system just like the movie industry. Our games are so incredibly cinematic in nature, they're like miniature movies! We make all kinds of games based on movies, and movies are made based off our games, we're equals!
It's odd to me that something that for so many years was the "alternative" form of entertainment is now so obsessed with making itself just look and feel just like the movie and or television industry. The gaming industry as a whole needs to collectively take a look at itself and decide if this is what we really want. Creativity is the only limiting factor in gaming, we can't afford to lose that ingredient, or gaming as a fresh, exciting entertainment media is dead.
You can already see this happening: What are the big games right now? Half Life 2. Halo 2. Sims 2. Gran Turismo 4. Everquest 2. Final Fantasy 11. Grand Theft Auto San Andreas (essentially GTA6). Metroid Prime 2. Metal Gear Solid 3. Madden for the 15th straight year. Doom 3. Burnout 3. Prince of Persia 2. Spiderman 2. Pikmin 2. Paper Mario 2. Need for Speed Underground 2. The list goes on and on.
The fact is, you'll be hard pressed to find a video game these days that isn't a straight sequel, the latest title in a long line, or based on a universe established in other games (World of Warcraft). People were having a cow this summer when it was all sequels, where's the outcry over this practice in video games?
It's a compelling article, although there's a huge amount of number fudging.
(1) If you count DVD sales and rentals, aren't you double counting sales to the big rental chains? And of course, studios don't see the money from rentals any more than a game developer sees money from blockbuster renting a game, so why should that be counted?
(2) Does the $10B figure for the game industry include game rentals? Or is it possible that perhaps the rentals of games at, say, Blockbuster, got grouped into the movie rental business, since they do so much game renting?
(3) How does resale figure into this? There's a huge market for "pre-owned" games AND movies, including a lot of trade-in credits. Personally, I'd expect movies to be rented more but traded in less (at least as a percentage of their sales revenue).
(4) How do you account for cross-licensed stuff? It seems silly to count the Spider-Man 2 game as a purely "video game industry" thing, as it wouldn't even exist without the movie. And when Doom comes out in theatres, how does one account for that? Clearly, the brand names generated in each industry create value and that value is hard to measure solely off sales in one genre or another.
(5) What about subscriptions? There's obviously plenty of license money being thrown around by HBO when they get movies, and likewise, on the Video Games side, how much are all those MMO subscriptions worth?
One could even go into an in-depth review of piracy. How does piracy in each segment compare and effect revenues? What sort of margins do big hits have, and what sort of margins does the industry overall have? And what sort of residuals? It's a lot harder to squeeze more life out of an old game than an old movie. Old movies show up on TV and such, but old games just end up getting cracked.
And they give examples of bestsellers, but they don't look at the breadth of titles. How many video games came out vs how many movies?
And certainly International Box Office is absolutely colossal for big movies. How does gaming compare? A lot of major Hollywood movies take in 65%+ of their gross overseas. How do localized versions of Video Games compare?
I think what we can all agree on is that Video Games comprise an ever-increasing portion of the GDP and probably of the entertainment dollar that we spend, and as such, it's a lot harder to predict where they will go. Most video game players can imagine a *long* way into the future for video games in terms of technology, to the point where I could see people paying thousands of dollars for holodeck-type video game vacations that last a week; it's hard to see where movies go from here for sure, whereas Video Games have shown a seemingly endless appetite for more advanced technology.
When they say "bigger" they usually mean makes more money but that is only half the story.
A movie costs £5 at the box office or rental and £20 on DVD. A game costs upwards of £30, so while games may be competing with movies in the area of profits, the number of people playing games is far less than those who watch movies. Culturally videogames are still a long way behind film.
Does anyone factor in cable subscriptions driven by the movies that are shown? What about blockbuster and netflix subscriptions? Does anyone count games on cell phones, pdas, or non platform handheld games ? What about after market sales of movies or games on eBay, garage sales, etc?
Comparing two industries ain't easy. And I mostly agree with stratjakt (596332) anyhow that it is a moot point when you consider all the money ends up in the same few pockets.
People can check out my supplemental arguments to the idiotic article posted the other day here:/ worst_a rticle_e.shtml
http://www.jackphelps.net/archives/2004/12
or here:
Games are bigger than movies
Matthew Yi doesn't say what he's comparing the $10b figure to. My guess is that it's the oft-quoted ~$9.6b domestic box offices revenue figure. Both figures are domestic, but he is leaving out the important $21b home video market and the aftermarket licensing market (pay-per-view, public performance, etc.). I don't know the exact size of the latter, but according to ABN Amro in 2000 it was roughly 28% of the total dollars (probably about $8b domestic then, but my guess is that it's dropped off some). Hollywood produces a lot of porn, too. You want to throw that $8b in there, Yi?
How do you play your games and movies?
The $10b figure includes hardware. Consoles. Do I need to say that again? The $21b domestic video market requires dedicated players, too, and Yi ignored those in his analysis. Probably the most relevent statistic Yi could have used for the domestic games market, then, is the ~$7.15b 2003 North American games software sales stat from Push Research.
What the hell is Hollywood?
Okay, I understand that the guy is talking about movies, but he never even says that. He says "Hollywood" again and again. Even if he were using the abovementioned $9.6b gross domestic box office reciepts figure, he's wrong to call it "hollywood," because that figure includes a number of movies (albeit small) not produced at all by Hollywood, and does not include Hollywood's exported box office reciepts. That's akin to some sick hybrid between GDP and GNP where you count only good produced in the US and by US companies, and it tells you nothing and reeks of stupid journalist.
The month of November
Yi cites November as a killer month he considers demonstrative of the growth in games, and my personal opinion is that this is equally rotten analysis. November included the release of Halo 2, Metroid Prime 2, Halflife 2, a peripheral sales boom from the October 26th GTA: San Andreas release, and probably the 200,000 Nintendo DS units sold in the first week of release. What that means is that there has never been a month in gaming equivalent to that month, and there probably won't be in all of 2005 unless you count console releases, which again are hardly a relevent comparison.
Read jack phelps dot net
Just to put things into perspective, WalMart does about $250 billion in sales annually. That's a single company taking in 10X the annual revenue of two entire industries combined. Now that's impressive.
"The 2004 domestic Video and Computer Game Industry is estimated to be around $10B. This is a slightly misleading figure because it includes the sales of the console machines, in addition to the sales of the software, but we'll go with it."
First he states, that it's BS because it includes console gaming. Ok, a stretch but I'll let it go.
"The domestic US box office is estimated to be around $9B for 2004, and this is where the myth starts to take life. The problem is the movie industry is a lot bigger then just the U.S. box office. DVD sales and rentals for 2003 topped $16B. VHS sales and rentals for 2003 was $6.4B. VHS sales are declining fast, but most of that will just shift over to DVDs, which brings the grand total for non-box office movie sales to over $20B, twice the figure for the entire game industry."
Now he says, that the movie biz is worth 20 billion if you take in to account international sales, dvd sales, etc. He says it's important to take into account intertantional sales but then he fails to take into account internation sales of video games. What is that number? Last I heard, it was close to 30 BILLION. (I'll try and dig up an official number later.)
Anyway, he then compares international gross of various movies with NATIONAL gross of video games. Yeah, that's fair. Halo 2 he says made $160 million. Hmm...that's strange, according to my research it made $125 million its FIRST DAY of release in North America alone. I suppose it's possible it only made another $35 million (which is only 700,000 copies) world wide past the first day but I'm doubtful. He says GTA: San Andreas grossed $178 million. I can find several internet sources with one google search that will tell you it made that much OPENING WEEKEND. That's not the total amount it will make.
Then Grumpy Gamer wonders where are all the limosines and fast cars that the gaming companies have. I guess since there's no giant premier on E showing these people coming out of limosines or exotic cars, they must not exist.
You can go on and on with this, but if this guy is going to try and debunk a "myth" (that only geeks know about anyway), at least try and be accurate instead of creating your own myth. This guy is completely talking out of his ass as far as I can tell. He has no hard evidence to prove anything. Apparently, Grumpy Gamer believes you destroy myths by mere speculation, lack of hard evidence, and incorrect figures. (Notice he didn't provide any sources for where his game gross' came from.)
Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. -- H. L. Mencken
Read this article to find out why there is such a big difference in the figures (it's a little old, but informative).
If you are looking at the data that indicates a progressive decline in "in-theater movie experiences." American's, at least, fail to express an increasing desire to attend a movie in the theater. You now pay ~$100US for a family of four to have a night on the town including a movie.
At one time, that demographic was the bread-and-butter of the local movie house. Now a large segment of the US population is staying home with their high-quality audio and television units, rather than drive to town (fuel), grab an early dinner (fast food), drive to the cineplex (fuel), pay for your tickets (ouch!), buy a few snacks (sock!) and a drink (pow!), and you have probably spent the entire months entertainment budget.
The movie industry will decline for a short time and will eventually mimic the game industry's business model. They will still put out occasional theatrical releases of big-budget shows, but the "B" movies will probably never be shown in local screens.
"Rocky Rococo, at your cervix!"