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WiMax Technology Could Blanket the US?
obiwan2u writes "According to an article on WiMaxTrends, the metropolitan area wireless networking technology (MLAN) called WiMax could reach 90% of the mainland US population if about $3 billion was spent on infrastructure. The 802.16 standard specifies a max range of about 30 miles and a max speed of about 70 Mbits/sec, but typical ranges and speeds will typically be smaller. 802.16/WiMax specifies various licensed (3.5Ghz) and unlicensed (5Ghz) frequency ranges but the unlicensed ranges have Wi-Fi like transmitting power restrictions. More background on this technology can be seen at: WiMax starting to make its move and 802.16: Medium distance wireless networking that could change the world?"
That means with many users, each user could end up with dial-up speeds. Correct?
AOL and MSN would fight this tooth and nail.
Plus, could this handle millions of people connecting?
Got Extra Money?
We have to take this article with a grain of salt. First off, the article is put out by WiMax Trends. Of course they're going to say that. It's like Microsoft saying they rock and the world depends on their software. Second, there are a lot of trends that COULD happen...broadband over powerlines for example. While this is a rather cool wireless application, let's not all be getting all giddy just yet.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts...for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang
I think "slowly" is the key word here. I don't know about you, but I don't plan to avoid encryption for the next half century because it's theoretically possible to build some sort of computer to crack it.
:)
I think the "worry" here is all of the anti-RF nuts protesting this. Not that I think they could stop implementation, however, but they'll try
"Well, then fire it up and show me what this..." (sigh)
Screw Iraq, or a tax cut, or whatever bullshit subsidy the government wants to spend my money on- we should have this. Now! A $3bn investment in a free, public, high-speed wireless internet infrastructure would repay itself by stimulating all sorts of economic growth in a very short amount of time. Naturally, that means it'll never happen... It'll only get built by a large corporation that will charge us out the asses for it and provide spotty service. Woohoo! Maybe the EU'll do it... It'll certainly benefit places that are further behind in their infrastructure by helping them get past the last mile problem...
An $X billion dollar investment in a free, public Y would repay itself by stimulating all sorts of economic growth in a very short period of time. See that's all the economic knowledge it takes to be a central planner. I hear the Communist Party is looking for some! Congratulations.
LMDS and MMDS never managed to solve the propagation problem. Tree leaves are amazingly good at stopping high frequency RF signals--they hold a lot of water during the spring and summer months. WiMAX for all its great technology does not have an answer for this. In fact it is likely to face MORE propagation problems than earlier fixed wireless attempts because it operates at much higher frequencies.
Yes, WiMAX has OFDM, which is great for urban environments because it handles multipath (bounces) well. But trees don't bounce; they absorb.
WiMAX will certainly find success in many environments. Urban is one. Desert is another (American southwest). Far north is another. Many of the currently profitable fixed wireless installations are in the desert or far north, where there is little tall vegetation to eat the signal.
But in places like rural or suburban Mid-Atlantic, southeast, and New England--places with a lot of deciduous trees--expect the ranges and speeds to be far below predicted, with service "shadows" depending on your exact location.
I live within 30 miles of a major metropolitan area, but I won't get a signal here. How do I know? Because I'm behind a hill. I don't get broatcast TV signals or cell phone signals here, either, and radio is somewhat of a crapshoot.
If all this should have a reason, we would be the last to know.
The Iraq war is about 177 M USD per day. That makes about 17 days of Iraq war.
Or 1.4 B2 stealth bombers.
So it's not really that lot.
Not all that much, when you consider the Iraq war cost somewhere between $80 and $150 billion.
That 30 mi range is the max over open terrain. With buildings and hills it'll be a lot less. So a 30 mi radius in a rural area with 35Mbps shared isn't so bad. Also, in a city you could always have more cells with lower power to give more capacity.
Well, as a liberal (big or small L, take your pick), let me take some stock.. hmm...
So much for sweeping generalizations. But let me tell you about some things that DO drive me up the wall:
Rant over....
--- The American Way of Life is not a birthright. Hell, it's not even sustainable.
From the "about the author" blurb at the bottom of the article:
"Caroline Gabriel is Research Director of Rethink Research Associates and Editor of WiMAX Watch, a newsletter providing in-depth analysisof the WiMAX market. She is a featured columnist for Trendsmedia's WiMAX Trends, and is a leading industry analyst on wireless and wireless broadband technologies. She recently authored WiMAX Business Models 2004-2007: How to Make Money in WiMAX, published in the US/Canada by Trendsmedia."
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
Actually, no one has developed quantum algorithms which can break any encryption other than those which rely on factoring being hard. We have a quantum factoring algorithm. We don't have a quantum modular logarithm algorithm. So although RSA, Rabin, and a few others would be toast, Diffie Hellman, El Gamal, NTRU, and quite a number of other public key schemes would still be safe. And no secret key scheme I've ever seen relies on factoring, so AES, Triple-DES, and all the AES candidates would still be secure.
As for quantum entanglement, people are working on it. It's an active field of research, but these things don't happen instantly just because someone wants them to. Sorry. What you're really doing is comparing two completely unrelated things:
1) Long range consumer wireless data transmission. It's a technology whose primary benefit over existing technologies is that it is cheaper to deploy and more versatile. It's an immediate and pragmatic thing with real benefits which we could all be using within as soon as two or three years. It's something that real companies are looking at building real devices for right now.
2) Quantum entanglement communication. It's a high end research idea which they aren't sure if can ever be realized. If it can, it will likely be very expensive for quite a while and hence not suitable for consumers. It is possible that we will communicate using this technology in a few decade's time, but at this point, it is not in the running for immediate deployment in any way shape or form. No real companies have the capability to build anything like this now. The companies who are looking at rolling out WiMax stuff likely don't even have anyone on staff who understand quantum entanglement, never mind anyone who could build one.
It's sort of like your next door neighbor, a plumber, has come to you and said "Hey, I've just ordered this new car. Check out the specs on this baby. I'm really going to enjoy driving to work now." and you've said "Car? With all the automobile accidents which could happen between here and work? You should be working on building a teleporter instead."
Keith
They spent more than just for the *LICENSE* than what is required for deployment.
Well, wimax requires a *LICENSE* as well, unless you plan to run it on unlicensed band with all wavelan users and limited transmission powers... It is however likely, that operators will not initiate as insane frequency bidding competitions a second time. However, that has nothing to do with the superiority or suckiness of either tech.
But a wi0fi voip will work just enough for me to use especially if the calls are unlimited and free.
What an amazing business opportunity.
1. Beat Verizon, Sprint, Cingular et all in WiMax frequency bidding, build blanket coverage over Americ and start offering free and unlimited voip calls over it.
2. ????
3. Profit!
signatures pending - ansa@kos.to - (dont mail there)
Teligent spent $1.3bn in a year building its network but only signed up 35,500 customers by the time it filed for bankruptcy in 2001.
One of the biggest problems I have with government subsidized wireless access is the misconception that it can be done with minimal cost to taxpayers.
If it hasn't been done by the market yet, then it most likely cannot be done till you have the right market. Trying to push "free" wireless on people who will be paying the tax for it, and may or may not have access, is a pain. Especially if the people paying for it get tired of latency issues or cannot access it and have to keep paying for their already overpriced cable/dsl.
I also find it VERY interesting that this individual claims it will only cost $3 billion to cover 90% of the US. I'm assuming she means population, and I'd like to figure she gets to that number at $100,000 per zipcode (approximately 9,000+ zipcodes). That's $900 million for just the equipment. Half assets, 450 million, is for energy to keep them going. Double assets, $1.8 billion, is for employment to upkeep, handle network issues, etc. This estimate does not consider upgrades, maintenance, raises, or energy conservation. It's likely to need continual re-evaluation.
3 billion dollars paid for by 130 million taxpayers? (IRS estimates 130 million income taxes were filed in 2003) That's $23.07 per taxpayer, per year, regardless of whether you end up getting service or not. And regardless of the uptime or latency of said service. Sounds great, right? Ask the French about their "videophones".
I can see something like this working in Korea, but not the US.