Sim Epidemic

Dotnaught writes "Scientific American has an intriguing story about EpiSims, an outbreak simulator. Designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), it deals with a social networking of a different sort: 'To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann. She has short brushes with family members during breakfast and then with other commuters or carpoolers on her way to work. Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.'"

Comments

CERN did this a couple of months ago

[moofdaddy]

I read an article in Popular Science a few months ago while waiting in the dentist office about a similar program developed by CERN. The main difference was that it was text based instead graphical. The coolest thing I saw about it was that they used it to re-enact the spread of the bubonic plaguge which killed so many people years ago. I think they were developing it for WHO and the associated organizations.

Problems with models

[CtrlPhreak]

A friend of mine works with the WHO which has solicited many different people to do work like this for them. In light of all the terrorism talk and threats of bio-terrorism, we've had talks on this. Different universities etc. The problem with it is that no model is able to conform to historical records of various outbreaks well enough across the board to develop policy on. One model is highly based on an aids breakout of the 1980s or an asian flu epidemic, and the model fits well to it. But when the model is applied to different epidemics they don't work out. There are just so many factors differing by area, culture etc. Think close knit community vs big city. Also the way things are transmitted. You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

Models working with more people is definitely a step forward, but just an improvement.

Re: Problems with models

[Alwin Henseler]

You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

I'd argue against the 'not very useful'. These models may not provide accurate predictions for real outbreaks, but may improve the insights into the variables involved, and how things interact.

In the case of a real outbreak, authorities may take measures like release public warnings, quarantine certain areas/building, ask people to avoid certain activities for a while, etc.

Will that slow down the outbreak? Will it confine casualties to a certain area? Can a measure help to lower mortality rates?

With a real outbreak, that sort of data is crucial. If you know how to slow down the spread of a disease, you buy time for healthcare workers. Time to track down infected people, time to treat people before incubation period expires, etc. Keeping the number of casualties down, may avoid a mass panic. So having some knowledge about the variables involved can make a big difference, and save countless lives.

So these models may be pretty helpless for predicting exact numbers, but still useful anyway.

Re:Problems with models

[thogard]

There are deeper problems as well. I played with this years ago when I had a large collection of data for a different project. One thing I did was played around with the time factor. It turns out that several genetic things look viral with a different time factor including allergy related illnesses like asthma. The head researcher thought it was interesting but had other projects and it would go too far against the modern teachings so the research died a natural death.

But, this is SLASHDOT...

[mcrbids]

To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....

Of course, this is slashdot. If Ann was a slashdotter, her epidemiology would consist only of contact between Ann and her parents, at the dinner table, during the approximately 45 minutes per day that Ann leaves the cellar.

Perhaps it should read something like:

To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, one must not be a slashdotter. Imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....

Most efficient vectoring scheme?

[Swampfeet]

If I were a terrorist and wanted to start off a really good plague with something new, nasty, and specially engineered, I always thought handing out a few infected 20 dollar bills at various interstate highway Burger Kings or MacDonalds would be very effective.

Every car that comes after you becomes a new vector! And heading all over the place!

Re:Good for AIDS in Africa research.

[Peter777]

Ah, the humble foreskin. It protects the glans from abrasion in your pants, holds the smegma in for its anti-pathogenic goodness, is full of nerve endings for... stuff, and probably even helps keep those little amazonian fish from swimming up you. How's it going over there with the quest to surgically banish masturbation? I hear anal sex is becoming really popular in America, on account that circumcised males often can't get enough stimulation from vaginal sex. Not that I've actually looked into it of course. Just one of these things you hear passed about that make sense on the surface.

Ann vs. Bob

[G4from128k]

The real cause for concern is not Ann, the typical adult, but Bob, the traveling salesman. Bob comes into contact with hundreds of people spread across a wide area. Bob can give the infection to client sin remote sites and airline passengers. Worse, Bob will give the disease to hotel and airline workers (who spread it to other "Bob"s that travel).

The connectivity of people lies on a 2-D spectrum of distance and numerousity. Highly connected, highly-travelled people will play a much greater role in spreading the disease than typically-connected, less mobile people. Given the incubation delay and delays in reporting of an epidemic, the Bobs of the world will have done their damage long before the government realizes the danger and closes the airports.