Sim Epidemic

Dotnaught writes "Scientific American has an intriguing story about EpiSims, an outbreak simulator. Designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), it deals with a social networking of a different sort: 'To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann. She has short brushes with family members during breakfast and then with other commuters or carpoolers on her way to work. Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.'"

Comments

Finally

[Anonymous Coward]

Some more amusing ways to torture my Sims.

Phew

[civman2]

For a minute there, I thought this article was going to be about how millions of teenage girls are displaying frightening symptoms: siting inside all day instead of socializing, playing computer games all day, turning away from reality. I guess the Sims has the power to turn girls into guys. But that's not what this is about...

Re:Phew

[Biff Stu]

In the event of an epidemic, this would be a good thing. Does this mean that if epidemics select for antisocial nerds, /.'ers will rule the earth?

Problems with models

[CtrlPhreak]

A friend of mine works with the WHO which has solicited many different people to do work like this for them. In light of all the terrorism talk and threats of bio-terrorism, we've had talks on this. Different universities etc. The problem with it is that no model is able to conform to historical records of various outbreaks well enough across the board to develop policy on. One model is highly based on an aids breakout of the 1980s or an asian flu epidemic, and the model fits well to it. But when the model is applied to different epidemics they don't work out. There are just so many factors differing by area, culture etc. Think close knit community vs big city. Also the way things are transmitted. You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

Models working with more people is definitely a step forward, but just an improvement.

Re: Problems with models

[Alwin Henseler]

You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

I'd argue against the 'not very useful'. These models may not provide accurate predictions for real outbreaks, but may improve the insights into the variables involved, and how things interact.

In the case of a real outbreak, authorities may take measures like release public warnings, quarantine certain areas/building, ask people to avoid certain activities for a while, etc.

Will that slow down the outbreak? Will it confine casualties to a certain area? Can a measure help to lower mortality rates?

With a real outbreak, that sort of data is crucial. If you know how to slow down the spread of a disease, you buy time for healthcare workers. Time to track down infected people, time to treat people before incubation period expires, etc. Keeping the number of casualties down, may avoid a mass panic. So having some knowledge about the variables involved can make a big difference, and save countless lives.

So these models may be pretty helpless for predicting exact numbers, but still useful anyway.

Her Name is Ann

[TimeTraveler1884]

...imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann.

She sounds hot....

But, this is SLASHDOT...

[mcrbids]

To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....

Of course, this is slashdot. If Ann was a slashdotter, her epidemiology would consist only of contact between Ann and her parents, at the dinner table, during the approximately 45 minutes per day that Ann leaves the cellar.

Perhaps it should read something like:

To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, one must not be a slashdotter. Imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....

Zombies

[LMariachi]

Sounds a little like the Zombie Infection Simulator.

Alternate Uses

[Stanistani]

A tool like this could be adapted for some other fascinating uses:

Marketing (particularly the viral type)
Political meme simulation
Catching terrorists and other criminals through investigating their social linkage
Pharmacological demand forecasting

All technology has alternate uses - some good, some not...

Re:CERN did this a couple of months ago

[Anonymous Coward]

I think they were developing it for WHO and the associated organizations.

"Well then who's developing it?"

"Yes."

"I mean the group's name."

"WHO."

"The group developing it."

"WHO."

"The software program."

"WHO."

"The simulation..."

"WHO is developing the simulation!"

"I'm asking YOU who's developing the simulation."

"That's the group's name."

/ etc

Links and research papers

[FleaPlus]

First off, here's a link to the EpiSims site at Los Alamos National Labs. They have a neat (250 meg) video showing smallprox propagation, as well as several graphs.

Here's a link to the general web page at LANL for Dynamic Simulation Science, which also includes information on things like simulation of transportation networks.

A google scholar search turns up a few interesting-looking research papers:

Structural and Algorithmic Aspects of Massive Social Networks (Eubank et al, 2004)

Understanding Large-Scale Social and Infrastructure Networks: ASimulation-Based Approach (Barrett et al)

BioWar: A City-Scale Multi-Agent Network Model of Weaponized Biological Attacks

My version...

[Peter777]

19.35 - You are in your parents basement. It's very dark. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

'up'

19.40 - You are in your parents hall. You hear voices to the east.

'east'

19.45 - The room is full of people. You are likely to catch the plague.

'mingle'

19.50 - Your aunt kisses you.

'use handkerchief'

19.55 - You feel dizzy

'South'

20.00 - You are in the kitchen. You have caught the plague. You feel very hot.

'South'

20.05 - You are in the garden. You are dead.

Re:CERN did this a couple of months ago

[RichardX]

"Oh, forget it! Anyways.. uh.. who was that band you went to see last night"

"No, Yes"

"Who?"

"No, though I did see them live once"

"Um.. who?"

"Yeah, they were pretty good"

"So who was it you saw last night?"

"Yes"

"Who, damnnit?"

"No, Yes. Then I came home and watched THEM! and a couple of episodes of Dr Who before I read that article about the software by the WHO"

"Um.. I think something's broken in your head. I'm going over here now."