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Nielsen Report Says Internet Usage Flattening
Ant writes "This BetaNews story says an analysis of major Internet markets revealed that the time netizens spend online at home has come close to hitting a plateau in many major markets. Nielsen//NetRatings, a syndicated rating system for Internet audience measurement, measured markets in Brazil, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States and found them to be maturing. In contrast, Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy and Japan experienced double-digit growth. According to Nielsen//NetRatings' press release (PDF) and current news story concluded that mature markets are in wait of "the next big thing" whereas emerging markets were rife with opportunity for companies online. Some of the growth engines cited in the report is the proliferation of broadband and societal changes in media consumption..."
Apparently it's impossible to average more than 24 hours online a day.
I'm still waiting for things to fall apart with IPv4...
The statistics in the news article show time online in February 2005. I would expect a decline in time online compared to February 2004, since February 2004 had 29 days and February 2005 had 28 days.
Then again, maybe they compensated for that descrepancy when computing their statistics.
How do they get these net-ratings? A cursory glance of their website didn't reveal much. Is it the same way they get tv ratings? Like, where they send you a little book to fill out and 5 dollars for your time?
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The headline of the BetaNews site seems misleading to me. Reading "Internet Usage Flattening", you might come to the conclusion that the use of the Internet is not growing.
It appears that the actual Nielson report is just showing that the amount of time an individual user spends on the Internet is not growing. They don't appear to be making any judgements as to additional users coming online.
From data that I have seen, there are a large number of older people that have no desire to use the internet - ever. As the older population that has never been exposed to the internet and never will dies, they will be replaced by people that grew up with an intimate knowledge of the internet providing substantial organic growth.
I'm a big tall mofo.
I use the net alot less now, got a girlfriend that keeps me happy (as opposed to my ex who kept me miserable), ever since I met her the internet has lost its boredom killing magic and has since become a source of boredom. Of course i still visit /. many times a day, I am still a geek after all.
A lot of home computers are also working on things like DDoS attacks and spamming.
Has "linux distros" become the universal euphamism for "porn and music" these days or are people really downloading Linux 24/7?
--
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Nielsen
has the full report in PDF format, It was a short article
I imagine many people are like me, when I'm hanging out watching tv(which I do on my second monitor mainly), I'm also connected to the internet, either to followup on what I saw on TV, or to see if friends are on IM, or even just because I'm board and just do a sweep of news sites. The article says:
Nielsen//NetRatings concluded that mature markets are in wait of "the next big thing" whereas emerging markets were rife with opportunity for companies online. Some of the growth engines cited in the report is the proliferation of broadband and societal changes in media consumption.
I'm waiting for a more fully interactive TV/Computer/Internet I think, more then TIVO, and Digital Cable has given me.
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I'd say that the japanese, and even hongkong (and that entire region) are experiencing such growth due to their proliferation of internet-enabled devices. When I was in japan, our tourguide was showing off on her phone how she can check CNN news and the weather and all sorts of cool things. Of course, I've seen all that stuff before, as current phones have that ability, but the previous year, she said that all the Americans were surprised to see that in a cell phone. Walking around NYC in recent weeks, I've noticed more and more and more people using their SideKicks, so that's more usage right there; that's a full-blown web browser.
I'd also say that most growth nowadays, in any market, is due to more widely available internet access. It seems that today, most businesses have broadband and have all of their computers online, which allows for employee surfing during slow time/breaks. Open, unsecured, and fee-based wireless access is available almost everywhere you go, and with more people having handheld and laptop devices, and all these portable gaming platforms with access, the numbers are only going to increase.
Even though usage seems to be leveling off in the US, I say in the next year, it's gonna spike again. Especially since there's so many regions where broadband isn't available and with cable modem/DSL trying to hit those markets.
...spike
Ewwwwww, coconut...
As far as I'm concerned NAT is a workaround, not a solution to IP address shortages.
Actually, it's getting to the point where Internet usage is impossible to measure/meter, because the Internet is increasingly woven directly into the fabric of our lives. The idea of sitting around and "using the Internet" is about as obsolete as the idea of turning on your modem and dialing into your ISP -- in other words, not obsolete yet, but definitely on its way there at a high speed (no pun intended).
We have AIM on our cell phones. Some of us have computers turned on 24/7 with the speakers turned up loud enough that we'll hear it anywhere in the house when we get new mail or someone in real time wants our attention. We have our telephones and even televisions integrated into the 'net now. Internet usage is everywhere, it's always on, and it's going to be impossible to say "I got online at 7:00 and I stayed online until 9:00."
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Sitting around all day doing nothing but playing warcraft and looking at porn doesn't burn too many calries... oops, misread the headline. :)
Nielsen are the guys that keep TV programming dumbed down by reporting that all consumers want to see is dancing poodles, reruns of sit-coms and bad news.
Don't believe anything you hear from Nielsen. Their studies are unscientific bunk. To the extent they are given credibility, they will dumb down the internet too.
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There are statistical equations that measure the relative accuracy of your results if you have a truly random sample. The trouble is that it's hard to get a truly random sample.
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My only question is from reading another article on Slash is if the internet protocol tcp/ip is right for high speed video since the internet architecture was never intended for it.
Typically, streaming audio/video is done with UDP rather than TCP.
Also, Internet2 was specifically designed for large transfers like that.
...spike
Ewwwwww, coconut...
From data that I have seen, there are a large number of older people that have no desire to use the internet - ever. Am I the only one astounded by some peoples' disinterest in the 'net? I mean... kings used to spend a fortune on what, today, would amount to a small local library. And they would consider that a huge resource, in the knowledge is power sense. I'm sure I recall historical tales about the quest for the sum of human knowledge. The Internet, by comparison, really is getting close to the sum of human knowledge, in the sheer variety of information available, the speed at which new events are documented by it, and the level of worldwide, interpersonal communication involved. I can't imagine anyone not wanting to spend time just seeing what's out there, unless they simply don't realise what's out there.
I have a "pretty much" static IP. It's changed only two or three times over the past 4 or 5 years.
.. and with a Linux firewall/NAT box, I've never gotten a worm, despite always being way behind on patching, and can do a clean XP re-install for someone without worrying about infection within those vital first few minutes.
NAT allows me to not have to pay an extra $15/mo to my cable company to get 3 additional systems online, and it allows me to run servers for different things on different machines (for example, Apache and Samba run on the gentoo box, but VNC ports forward to my desktop machine and another set of ports forwards to each desktop computer for bittorrent use) while keeping one easy-to-remember hostname.
The truth is, my 4 systems don't all need their own IPs. I simply don't allow my windows machines to be exposed to wild traffic floating around on the internet
So I'd say NAT is a pretty good solution, and unlike IPv6, it's here now.
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I think a lot of the growth in Japan is because the connections speeds are much faster. http://bbpromo.yahoo.co.jp/ There are more services such as TV. Japan is already pulling fiber into the home at + 100MBS. http://www.gate01.com/. And of course the wireless 3G networks. It is not uncommon to see mini laptops on trains with 3G Wireless cards at 380KBS. Of course the majority of cellphones are just used as Instant Messaging machines. You are not allowed to talk on cell phone on the commuter trains. It seems to me that the more bandwidth offered is realated to the services that are available. I would not be surprised to see Japan sustain the high growth rates for some time. There is currently a major battle in the media. It is complicated but basically the Internet firm Livedoor is buying up the old business of Radio and TV. The internet firm Livedoor is pursuing the marriage of interactive TV. Conversely, I think the US has reached a plateau on speeds and is still trying to get "High Speed" faster than 56KBS to the consumer. Until the US populace has breeched the boring aspect of waiting for content to load, I think usage will stay flat. If the US brings Fiber to the home there will be a similar effect of high growth rates.