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Doom Forecasted for World of Warcraft

The ever interesting Grimwell.com has commentary available forecasting doom in the near future for World of Warcraft. Commentator Geldonyetich argues that, by the very nature of the Warcraft game design, the impressive subscription numbers they currently boast are fleeting. From the article: "World of Warcraft is a tremendously successful game. Its subscriber numbers are reaching peaks that threaten even the lofty Korean Internet Café centered Lineage series. Those of you who are stuck behind overloaded servers, don't despair: I can see WoW's success as being a very temporary thing."

24 of 245 comments (clear)

  1. Forecasted? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful


    A dictionary can be a writer's friend...

  2. I stopped playing by avalys · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I bought WoW a few weeks ago and loved it, at first. But a few days ago, after reaching level 21, I realized that there really wasn't all that much content in the game. It's just a constant cycle of killing monsters, waiting for your health/mana to recharge, killing some more, and then running for fifteen minutes back to whoever gave you the quest.

    It was fun while it lasted, but eventually you realize there isn't much variety in the gameplay. The scenery changes, and you get to use different spells/weapons, and if you really stick with it you get a horse to ride around, but other than that, nothing ever changes.

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    1. Re:I stopped playing by DiSKiLLeR · · Score: 2, Insightful

      LOL sounds like me!

      I bought WoW, played it for about 2 weeks... got a Level 19 Human Warrior and Level 21 Night Elf Druid, and am bored of it already....

      Its just pointless killing and running for 20 minutes to turn quests back in. God i hate running. I can't even be bothered waiting to level 40 and saving up 100 gold to get a horse to ride on.

      I rather just play something more fun... something that feels less like work!

      D.

      --
      You can tell how powerful someone is by the magnitude of the crime they can commit and be able to get away with.
    2. Re:I stopped playing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I rather just play something more fun... something that feels less like work!

      Heh - one of the most common complaints against WoW is that it's "too easy" and "doesn't require enough effort". If you think WoW is too much work, then the current generation of MMORPGs aren't for you. They aren't for me, either.

      If I wanted to work, I'd - well, work. Video games are for fun, and so far, no MMORPG has really offered that. WoW included.

    3. Re:I stopped playing by FileNotFound · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yep. There is a TON of storyline quests. I do mean TON.

      I'd say 80% of the quests ARE storyline based. Yes some aren't, like get my pot fixed...

      But take Darkshire for example:
      There is a quest to explain why there are undead.
      There is a quest to explain why there are worgen.
      There is a quest to explain who Stalvan is.
      There is a quest to explain who MorLadim is.
      There is a quest to explain who Abercrombie is.
      There is a quest to explain who MorbentFel is.

      Sure, many just give you notes or books to read - and if you don't read them, you don't get the story. But thats YOUR fault.

      - Morkal. 60 Hunter. Officer of Keepers of the Keg (www.kegkeepers.org)

      --
      In Soviet Russia, the television watches YOU!
  3. Tripe by Wylfing · · Score: 5, Insightful
    This guy apparently thinks Diablo II lacks long-term appeal as a game. Hit this guy with a cluestick. Diablo II, a 6-year-old game, is still occupying a lot of shelf space in stores and still selling far above bargain bin price. The only other game that has this much longevity is Counter-Strike.

    Yes, poor, poor Blizzard. They have a "failure" on their hands just like Diablo II.

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    Our intelligent designer has never created an animal that we couldn't improve by strapping a bomb to it.
  4. Socialization by Datasage · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I wouldnt say socialization does not exist in the game. The only reason i joined was because i had friends who also play, and well its rather fun to cooperate with and compete against them.

    If I didnt have friends in the game, I would not last very long. I do agree, the machanics are too much like diablo 2 and after beating that once I lost intrest.

    But i do think there needs to be more reason to group. There are raids, but those are generally only avialable to high level players.

    --
    In America we are imprisoned by our fear of them.
  5. Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. by QuantumG · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Ya know, people wouldn't leave for the reasons Geldonyetich states if they were actually doing what RPGs are for: discovering their identity. Unfortunately WoW doesn't encourage this kind of gameplay. It's certainly possible though, and players who actually role play their character and introspect their thoughts and feelings about the strange situations they get their character into will not only stay in the game longer, they'll get more out of it too. Now if only WoW could be built to encourage this kind of gameplay more..

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  6. Justification for his EQ2 purchase? by drekmonger · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Article sounds like the author is trying to convince himself that he picked the right horse.

    Nothing to see here.

  7. Change by Sheepdot · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It all comes down to change. MMORPGs lack change. Even in the newer generation games, there's nothing going on that begs for players to get involved. Pen and paper RPGs still reign supreme in the area of an evolving storyline.

    In WoW, the same thing that happened yesterday is going to happen today. There no mission you are going to do that someone hasn't already done twice.

    Games like Asheron's Call were so huge that, at least for a while, the idea that you were the first person to travel to a new area was still there. You could approach some remote location and find a tower, mountain, or valley that no one had ever been to.

    The devs would add new monsters and npcs every month or two. It revolutionized the way players actually played the game. Reports would come in, via the game, about a new mob attacking one of the towns, and then you could go there and actually find/see it.

    MxO looks to be the only game that might have a player-driven storyline. Unfortunately, the game is buggy as hell, and won't be going anywhere for a while till they get those issues resolved.

  8. Re:The real reason for doom... by grumpygrodyguy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The real reason why WoW is going to fail is that it is far too easy to reach the top tier playing level, and the endgame has very little meaning.

    Lvl 56 Orc Hunter Silvermoon,

    I agree completely. Our talent trees are locked and finite, and we feel like one faceless soldier in a very large army of other 'lvl 60' folks.

    WoW is the first MMOG to try and blend the successful gameplay of counter-strike and everquest into the same game. Their next patch called 'battlegrounds' is probably more important than the initial game release. If they do it right...the could dramatically revitalize the game, if they do it wrong WoW will likely fade into history as another MMORPG that failed to execute on a good idea.

    The end of the game, currently, seems to be a very boring place.

    Yeah, again I agree completely. Reaching 60 is very anticlimactic because it means moster xp is now useless. Spending 6 hours in an instance dungeon hoping for a drop isn't enough to keep most people playing.

    Things I'd like to see:

    1) Vastly more opportunities to develop a character's talent tree post 60. (AA points in everquest offered thousands of different combinations of character development). I know about 5 hunters in my guild and for the most part we are specced out the same with only a few trivial differences. Being limited to only 60 talent points is frustrating.

    2) A way to 'uber-up' such that if you spend enough time training your character, you could take on 2 or 3 lvl 60s by yourself based on how elite your talents are. Thus allowing for people to become truly legendary and notorious.

    3) Better character avatars, more personalization detail, better looking models, clothing, etc.

    I can't put my finger on it, but as an old EQ player there is definately something missing in WoW. The gameplay is a vast improvement over EQ, but it also feels homogenized and bland.

    --
    The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
  9. Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. by QuantumG · · Score: 2, Insightful

    which RP server would that be? The whole point of my post was the WoW is not a role playing game. Oh, and just because you have no concept of what a role playing game *is* doesn't mean you can go around insulting people who do.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  10. Re:nonsense by C0rinthian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I've Beta'ed Guild Wars, and currently play WoW. Both are great games in completely different ways.

    WoW is stronger in the traditional MMO/PvE content. Especially once they flesh out the end-game a bit more. Hardcore dungeon crawls, raids, etc. Guild Wars has none of this. (PvE is on a much smaller scale in GW)

    Guild Wars really shines on the PvP front. The entire purpose of the PvE segment is simply to get you up to speed to PvP. Most of a characters development isn't vertical, it's horizontal. (Quick run to 20, then spend time fleshing out your arsenal of abilities) And the skill system leads to plenty of variety and strategy in combat.

    Honestly, comparing the two doesn't make sense. They're different types of games, with different goals.

  11. Battlegrounds by L0k11 · · Score: 1, Insightful
    I bought the game in the first week of release and for various reasons my primary character is still only at level 36...

    Every so often my subscription runs out and i leave the game be for a few weeks but I do keep getting drawn back mainly because of friends on the other side of the country and my guild

    I read TFA and its a load of horseshit, WoW is not "doomed" and to say that it is too simple a game is rediculous - he is forgetting that battlegrounds is on its way and I am pretty sure that anyone who lets their subscription lapse in the meantime will definately pick it up again just to see battlegrounds

    --
    "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything" -- Josef Stalin
  12. Re:My summary... by Lord_Dweomer · · Score: 2, Insightful
    " People play WoW because it has unique and novel gameplay."

    I hardly thing WoW is unique and novel. I mean, its clean and well done, just like a Blizzard game should be, but lets not kid ourselves. The reason WoW is successful is because it is the new player, they took all the successful bits of other games, mashed them all together, and gave it the Blizzard Spitshine(tm).

    I personally think we'll start seeing real innovation not in the MMORPG segment, but the MMOFPS, and eventually I think we'll see several games that do a great job of blurring the line between the two.

    Also, I'm waiting for the first MMORPG to include a special peripheral that lets you get more involved in the game. Like a handheld "lightsaber" type sword handle that you could swing to control the sword action in the game. That would be insane.

    --
    Buy Steampunk Clothing Online!
  13. Re:Not an amazing article by gl4ss · · Score: 1, Insightful

    it will die though when vu goes under or fucks up things even more.

    even more because... well, they lost their chance with me. i got the trial via friend, the trial ended almost 2 months ago.. but since then it has not been possible to BUY the game at all(2nd hand not counting). "you can't buy" marketing sucks so fuck them.

    during this time other of my flatmates has also stopped playing it. can't blame him too much, untill they get their promised patches to make the pvp actually intresting it's pretty boring game(many reasons.. like that the same models are used again and again and again and again in the monsters, all of the professions being basically useless and STORY LINES THAT END IN TO A WALL AND ARE OBVIOUSLY JUST NOT DONE TO THE END).

    but if you find grinding for 60 levels so you can kick some guys ass for nothing then it's an excellent game - but even then it's a goner after couple of months except for the roleplay servers which could die any day anyhow when theres a better game out.

    and really, i'm reaaaally skeptical of the hundred players vs hundred players pvp being possible like they paint it out. painting pretty pictures and pr is easy, actually delivering isnt(they've fucked up a lot in europe already).

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    world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
  14. Flawed conclusions based on inaccurate observation by Quarters · · Score: 5, Insightful
    I almost didn't continue reading the article after the author invented his own three sub-genres of MMOs in an attempt to rationalize a conclusion he had obviously reached before conducting his studies. But, I read on.

    Total waste of time...

    He classifies WoW as a "slasher" (one of his designations) along with EQ and some others. He then goes on to say that slasher games don't last long in the market place, ergo WoW will fail soon. He ignores the fact that EQ is still running and relatively viable even 8-9 years after it's release.

    His worst error, though, is in picking two games, seemingly at random (CoH and Planetside), saying that WoW is just like both of them and that since their historical subscriber #s showed an inital peak and then a drop-off WoW's #s would behave in the same manner.

    That hypothesis is so wrong for so many reasons: * Planetside isn't an RPG, it's an FPS. * CoH is lacking in a # of important areas for player rentention. The most glaring one is the lack of loot acquisition, something WoW has in spades * Just like in the stock market past performance of #s is not indication whatsoever of future performance.

  15. Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. by Rayonic · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Join a good guild, make some friends, and grief the hell out of other players, both on the other faction and your own.

    That's what I love about PvP servers -- they act like griefer magnets. Thus letting the more sensible players enjoy their PvE servers in peace.

    Now, I do enjoy player versus player combat, but I like to decide how and when I want it. There are still plenty of town raids, and remember that we'll be getting the honor system and Battlegrounds also. But I like the ability to enjoy the content of the game, sans-griefing-assholes.
  16. Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. by Rayonic · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Likewise, the PvE servers keep most of the fucking carebears off the real servers

    Which is why PvP players (like the original poster) are always inviting PvE players to switch to a PvP server, right? More specifically, to switch to their PvP server. That isn't altruism -- they're just looking for new people to grief.

    Well, constant whining in game. Instead we have to listen to the carebears whining about PvP on the various forums.

    Most forum whining comes from heavy PvP users. Plain and simple fact.

    It really eats you up inside that somewhere, someone 30 levels lower than you is soloing a few quests, and you can't gank them. It's obvious from the vitrol and bile in your comments. But perhaps with therapy you could learn to overcome these feelings.
  17. Re:Can't argue by Cryect · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "exploration is made unnecessarily tedious by an utterly brain-dead aggro system, which means that even mobs many, many levels below your own will attack you if they see you"

    Ehh??? Mobs 5 levels or more below you are pretty hard to aggro unless you walk on top of them.

    "Indeed, the social aspects of WoW are among the weakest. I don't mind playing a MMORPG where you can level-grind solo, but I'll always prefer a situation where grouping brings advantages. Except at the very top levels of WoW (where there's not much left to do anyway), this just doesn't happen. Even as a Mage, the fastest way for me to level up was to run around on my own killing things."

    I definately agree that WoW has one of the worst social aspects but there is a slow shift from soloing to grouping as you level up. By level 40 you are spending often up to half your time grouping. Other MMORPG's though I really built a group feeling with others early on and didn't till the 40's for WoW.

    Biggest issue in WoW is the lack of usefulness in the professions and how everyone is the exact same in them and every item comes out exactly the same with no variance. Also the complete uselessness in that the time it takes to farm materials for the end profession items better item drops will occur.

  18. Re:Doomed because it's not "epic" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In other words, he believes that due to the fact that WoW is simple and easy to pick up, and doesn't have tedious things like trade skills of old EQ
    - That couldn't be farther from the truth.

    IMO, WoW designers made a game that isolates the "hardcore" from the "casual".

    On the surface, casual Joe doesn't see the insane grinds that are in the game. And the same time hardcore John can grind away to get extra items. Since WoW is a very item centric game, hardcore John is perfectly at home, gaining more power for his avatar as he grinds away. Same time, casual Joe also gains power while doing many non grind quests and dungeons, hell even small raids.

    I challenge anyone to come post with a straight face that there are no grinds in WoW. There is plenty:
    - Argent Dawn, Thorium Brotherhood, Timbermaw, Cenarion, and other race faction grinds.
    - High end tradeskill recipe grind: Arcane Crystals, Azerothian Diamonds, Dark Iron ore, Frayed Abomination Stiching and other rare gems/items.
    - Grinds to get elusive world drops: Brainhacker, Destiny, Hurricane, and others.
    - Grinds to get very rare dungeon drops: Runeblade of Baron Rivendare, patterns to epic caster robes, plans for epic craftskill recipes, plans for very rare but powerful craftskill items (Arcanite Reaper), epic quest items (Chromatic Carapace) and so on.
    - Grind to be able to afford epic mount.

    WoW has a lot grinding in it. Everyone who says the opposite hasn't played much high end.

    Blizzard efficiently threw a smoke screen infront of casual Joe, casual Joe goes and clears a dungeon once a week, gets a few nice items, his character progresses and he is happy. Same time, hardcore John has myriads of grinds to keep him occupied. And if that isn't enough, he has still PvP, Upper Blackrock Spire, Molten Core and Onyxia.

    Even Blizzard said it, the game starts at level 60. Plenty of things to do for everyone. And with content being added (hopefuly a more frequent basis), there will be many more things to do. So this modern Nostradamus fellow from Grimwell will be proven dead wrong because he obviously has no clue about WoW, or he wouldn't have spewed garbage like WoW is only for casual gamers.

  19. Lets go one more time... by Dreamwalkerofyore · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I, like my comrades above, think that this stage of Massive games is just a beginning. This is the gaming industry sticking their toe in the lake to test the water. When they eventually (and they will) take the dive, I think there would be a huge infux in gaming.

    I for one am an avid MMO player, but I like to think that I am different from most others. I play these games not for the level grinding and the cool stuff and such, but for the social aspects of it. I don't think of MMOs as a game as much as the next step in chat rooms, a 3D IRC if you will, where you can find and chill with some people, talk about stuff, then go out and kill some monsters. I used to play City of Heroes spell, around a month or so after it came out. I found a little glitch in the game (not explaining what, I dont think that they have patched it by now) where you can wind up behind the map in little patches of land the devs didn' t take out. I was around level 27 and had both flight and teleportation, so I began forming parties and teleporting friends to the pach of land in the middle of nowhere, break out a boombox, and have fun. Some people thought it was majorly cool, others just wanted to leave. My point is that people gladly took time out of their level grinding to just go to a place and have fun and talk about current events.

    When games make the eventual leap into some primitive form of virtual reality (which I think will happen in approx 20-30 years or so), and games pop up similar to the .hack universe (an anime series set in a universe where MMOs have taken the leap to VR), and a whole new series of issues would arise. Before everyone starts retorting on how this would never happen, look back on the past 20-30 years, where computers were just being brought out for public usage. Things have advaned insanely since then.

    To try to sum up my ramblings: MMOs will become more popular, they will have a more social aspect, and when virtual reality is widley distributed, especially in MMOs (which it will), fecal matter will hit the fan.

    --
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  20. People love a naysayer... by Dutchmaan · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Every time something comes along that's hugely successful, someone invariably comes along to try and drag it through the mud.

    I played D2 for exactly 4 months before it got old..
    WoW is heading strong into month 5 with a lot of added content on the horizon...

    Blizzard was very smart in not only making tiered level of things to do, but also variable branches of things to do...

    The harder levels of PvE are there for the hardcore PvE'ers and are by design only accessible to those who actually ARE serious about PvE raiding. PvP will soon have battlegrounds which will most like be for more hard core PvP'ers.

    D2 just had harder levels of the same material, and Blizzard has shown very well that they actually learn from their past mistakes. Which is why whenever I discuss things like theoretical loopholes in the WoW system, the topic usually ends with "but I'm sure Blizzard has probably thought of that already"..or in other words they have gained TRUST from the community.

    Blizzard is a shining example of what a game company should be like and I have no trouble whatsoever in handing over $15/mo for a game that I enjoy 99.99% of the time.

    I look forward to their added content and inevitable expansions...

  21. Re:Guild Wars is the doom foretold by elrous0 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Personally, I'm sick of MMORPG companies monthly milking of their customers. Stretching out 60-80 hours of content into 400 hours is akin to watching a movie that repeats each scene five times... and you have to pay to keep watching.

    1) Sell a lifetime membership to an online service with a huge server farm that requires constant maintenance and expensive upgrades and for a mere $50.

    2) ???

    3) Profit!!

    -Eric

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.