Slashdot Mirror
Doom Forecasted for World of Warcraft
The ever interesting Grimwell.com has commentary available forecasting doom in the near future for World of Warcraft. Commentator Geldonyetich argues that, by the very nature of the Warcraft game design, the impressive subscription numbers they currently boast are fleeting. From the article: "World of Warcraft is a tremendously successful game. Its subscriber numbers are reaching peaks that threaten even the lofty Korean Internet Café centered Lineage series. Those of you who are stuck behind overloaded servers, don't despair: I can see WoW's success as being a very temporary thing."
Basically the guy is saying MMORPGs peak and then go down. He also says Diablo II (a completely different game) is similar to WoW in what's going to happen to players. He's probably right about the peaking, but that certainly doesn't mean WoW will die. And Diablo II has no bearing on what happens to WoW, although D2 is still going pretty strong for a game as ancient as it is.
Against stupidity the Gods themselves contend in vain.
Their subscription went up and stayed up consistently. In the case of Everquest, it may have been due to it being there at the right time, but Final Fantasy XI has no such excuse.
Yeah, sure. Except that Everquest is now compacting their servers, and both EQ and FFXI hasn't bothered updating their figures for the past six months. Why? Well, based on what I've heard from people who still play FFXI, it may be because the total people playing was decreased by about half... Don't know about EQ, but it looks like that might be the case as well.
In other words... things might not be quite as rosy for those "old school MMORPGs" as Geldonyetich seems to think.
This guy seems to think WoW is doomed because it is not "epic" enough.
A MMORPG cannot just be a game: When you start charging a subscription, you're promising it to be more than that. It has to genuinely interest players in investing time in it for meaningfully compelling reasons. World of Warcraft is far too trivialized, it's evident in the quick grind, the artificial world, and the punch-out trade skill system. World of Warcraft, in matching casual friendly (even console-game like) design expectations, is simply not built to last as a top 5 MMORPG.
In other words, he believes that due to the fact that WoW is simple and easy to pick up, and doesn't have tedious things like trade skills of old EQ, this will somehow drive people away. How someone can think a grind in a game is a good thing is beyond me. EQ1 subscription numbers are now dropping quickly, even with a new "epic" expansion filled with yet more content accessable to uber guilds only. I would dare say the players in EQ1 in the last year were simply their due to the social experience with their uber guilds, as much better games have since come out.
I see WoWs success in another way. The game is simple, easy to learn and thus people are enjoying themselves. Friends are having a much easier time convincing someone to play WoW over other games. There isn't any talk about the problems of old EQ1 when WoW comes up, like the 15-30 minutes of downtime EQ1 used to have to regenerate health. Since WoW is so easy to get into, people are more tempted to run a character to 60, then try a completly different race. The diversity in the game is quite nice.
Only time will tell though. So far, it seems the server issues haven't scared off a noticible amount of people. And for many, the server issues are their only complaint with the game.
Of course, all this assumes that the current state of WoW is the final state of it. Surely once WoW's numbers start going down they'll modify the game to make it more accomidating to socialisers (it's not hard). As for people leaving for greener pastures, can anything stop that?
It's interesting to think of other MMOGs and Geldonyetich's three categories. Think about The Matrix Online (TMO). It's definitely in category three, so what's going to keep people around when the novelty of the gameplay wears off? I think the answer is story.. TMO is one of the few games where paid actors actually direct the gameplay.
Of course, I generally stop playing MMOGs in category three for a completely different reason: they get too hard. I find this especially annoying in single player games which have good story (like Simpsons: Hit & Run). Why do they have to keep making it harder? I don't want a "challenge" I want to have *fun*. I guess this is also the reason behind the popularity of cheat codes. With that in mind, I think the worst thing you can do in a MMOG is force people to take harder mission/quests. Just give me the option of Easy/Intermediate/Hard missions and I'll pick the level of challenge I feel up to today.
How we know is more important than what we know.
Yes, I've RTFA, and I am a WoW player, and I totally disagree with this article.
World of Warcraft has quite a few things going for it. It has a rich history of 3 amazing games, and its this history that has introduced the MMORPG genre to gamers who would have previously not given it a second glance. Most of the people I've spoken with that fall in this category are not planning on leaving WoW any time soon. From this type of gamer's prospective, it allows a micro view of the previous games; building your character instead of building towns and armies, but without losing too much of the original games.
From an MMORPG player prospective, this game offers what many other MMORPGs have strived to do; have a great and interesting quest system that's not too repetitive. I played CoH and quit after a couple of months because as interesting as the concept of that game weas, the quest system was purely repetitive; something I have yet to experience in the 5 months I've been playing WoW.
Another great aspect of WoW is that if you prefer playing alone, you can. If you prefer playing in groups you can. You can hunt and level by your lonesome, even attempt dungeon quests by yourself. Something that lacked in AO. If you prefer playing in a group, WoW has one of the best and fairest party systems that I've seen (and I've played about 7 MMORPGs dating back to the launch of Asheron's Call).
Will Wow's numbers go down? Most probably. All North American/European MMORPGs suffer from this. But it's my personal opnion that it will be on top of the MMORPG list for quite a while.
It's better to burn out than to fade away
Hi, welcome to video games.
Either you like the gameplay or you don't. I really don't see the point in complaining about a lack of variety, since 99% of games have very little gameplay variety.
Different spells/weapons require different strategies. I started off as a mage specializing in fire talents. When I reached level 40 I switched to frost talents, and 5 levels later I still don't quite have my new strategies down pat.
Though, I probably never will get it down. I really enjoy the game when I get to play it, but the unreliability of the servers and Blizzard's incredibly slow patch cycle and poor maintenance has finally become too much for me. I cancelled my subscription earlier today and won't be going back unless I hear they really got their act together. It's too bad.
For what it's worth, depending on what class you played, the game doesn't really "start" until a bit later.
... well, i'm still waiting on that one, and she's 21 right now.
I have a hunter, a rogue, and a priest that I play regularly - for my hunter, 30 was where it got really interesting; for my rogue it was 20; for my priest
My roomates and I were discussing it the other night, and basically came up with this:
Levels 1-10 are training. They're the turorial levels, where you learn how MMOs work, the basic mechanics and all.
Levels 11-20 are advanced training. Class-specific stuff starts popping up, basic grouping and instances, that sort of thing.
Levels 21-30 are when the training wheels come off. Around 25ish, depending on class, tons of zones open up for you, and you get a much better feel for the world. If 11-20 is High School, this is the college phase of the game.
31-40 are the first red meat you get. Lots of quests, lots of instances, lots of stuff to do and see. Most of the world is open to you now. This is when you should be joining a guild, learning to PVP, etc.
41-50 is endurance. Sadly, this is the most painful part. I almost quit, myself, around level 47 or so. At 40-41, you just got your mount, and by god you'll need it. Be ready to spend lots of time traveling - FedEx quests, lots of grinding, etc are the norm here.
51-56 is where you learn that you are pretty weak on your own. Sure, you can grind out those levels, if you want to, but soloing is much tougher, and the options for where to go are pretty limited.
57-60 are the final meat of the game. Scholomance, Stratholme, BRD, LBRS, UBRS, etc. Sadly, this is also where the fun starts to taper off. After a few days you realize this is all you've got left, except maybe runs against Onyxia, MC, Azuregos, and Kazzak. And, of course, farming set gear and epics =\
If your account is still active, you might want to try making it to 30 or so. You might find that the interest level picks up quite a bit from there.
Cheers to ya,
-A.
student of animation and the fine arts
Unlike all these other "Casual Gamer" friendly MMO that Geldonyetich is quick to point out such as City of Heroes and Planetside, WoW is built upon 10 years of development of the entire Warcraft Universe. This is a genre within itself and one which Blizzard has heavily invested in to create a rich history - including art books and detailed stories that have been previously revealed in the strategy games (there are even novels available through the blizzard website!).
A person's level of involvement and commitment determines a lot within WoW. From a casual gamer who does his own quests with maybe a group with his buddies now and then to the Molten Core Raids lasting entire days as they slowly progress their way through; each time developing better tactics. There is also a high degree of replay-ability; different classes and races and factions open up new ways to look upon the world to which you interact.
This is a world that can appeal to all levels of players. Whilst the end-game content is currently limited it is expanding and new additions such as the honour system and battleground will allow more engagement for end-game players.
The world is also not static; Blizzard has already hinted at further end-game enhancements such as hero classes and also world-changing events tabulated to be available for players to unlock. Provided they can keep their promises in a reasonable amount of time I can see players coming back time and again to the world of Azeroth.
Snowy Angelique Maslov - http://www.snowy.org/
I forecast 10 million+ subscribers once MMOGS become truly fun. Blizzard is notorious for storylines and wanting to make comic and culture for their Warcraft series. No doubt with the extra cash they'll be able to guide their MMOG to be more in depth.
The day they bring an action orient game like Zelda or Tekken into a massive world filled with a good progression, that will be the day all the other MMOGs fail. People like to meet and adventure with friends in fantasy worlds, they're not going to drop that.
Its like the atari 2600 debacle. People thought atari was the end of a fad. Its the SAME EXACT THING. MMORPGS imho suck. I wanted to write one in the early 90s, for a lot of reasons. Most of the cool things I envision in MMORPGS haven't been done yet. Try forcing yourself to play the atari 2600 when you know nintendo is coming over the horizon. Its friggin tough man, makes you almost want to program games yourself, and thats a whole lot of work.
God spoke to me.
From your description it sounds like the only fun is had in the 31-40 range! Games these days are becoming more like jobs... and why not: People are already programmed to do monotonous jobs from school. The game industry is smart to tap into that.
The real reason why WoW is going to fail is that it is far too easy to reach the top tier playing level, and the endgame has very little meaning. It consists primarily of grinding dungeouns for items, specifically class set items. Once you hit lvl 60, and have all of your set items, it is essentially the end of personal achievement. When all of that, which can be tedious and a cause of mass whining, is done, there is little motivation to continue on... other than helping your friends get their stuff.
So, when everyone has their stuff, there is nothing more. Blizzard is trying to fix this by introducing new stuff via a PvP system. You'll have to put in continuous work to gain the items, then eventually to maintain the status quoue. There is no more to gain past that, except to keep possession.
Blizzard could fix this by raising the level cap, making a separate world where the lvl 60's are like lvl 1's, except with their stuff... and letting them start the grind over again. Levels, spells, and items is what the game is about. Some people choose to party for them, others choose to solo (and will never get everything that way). The end of the game, currently, seems to be a very boring place.
Lastly... there is no way of being unique. Even the toons are limited in scope, but more importantly, the professions that you choose have a finite number of items, and somone else is likely going to be able to do what you do. There is nothing that can set you apart from anyone else. There is nothing to strive for in the venue, to be honest.
You need to restart your computer. Hold down the Power button for several seconds or press the Restart button.
I agree with the main thrust of this article. I've been playing MMORPGs for a while now (mainly FFXI, but also a couple of the older titles) and after a couple of month's play (one solid month when it came out, a bit here and there since then) I see no way that WoW can sustain its player numbers.
Don't get me wrong, it's a game that does a lot right. I've never before seen a MMORPG that made it so easy for new players to get started and get caught up in the game from day 1. Well... assuming they didn't spend day 1 trying to get into either the registration or game servers. There are dozens, maybe even of hundreds, of quests that you can get done at a very low level. They're not all Fed-Ex quests either; quite a few of them involve fighting "unique" monsters or exploring regions. MMORPGs have traditionally been rubbish at inducting new players. FFXI is, I must admit, one of the worst offenders, as unless you have some higher-level friends already in the game, getting started in it is basically an utter nightmare (I started out alone myself and took months to find my feet, but have since inducted three of my real life friends). WoW hammers the competition into the ground at this point. I was able to start exploring, fighting, questing, crafting and doing everything else I can do in other MMORPGs within a few hours of starting.
However, the problem is that I've not found much else to do since then. By the time you hit level 30, it's pretty clear that the game shows you all its significant content up-front and doesn't keep much in reserve for later. Exploring new zones is fine for a while, but they all start to blur eventually and exploration is made unnecessarily tedious by an utterly brain-dead aggro system, which means that even mobs many, many levels below your own will attack you if they see you. While the quests seem varied at first, a few basic templates become apparent fairly quickly. The quests aren't even particularly long or challenging. There are no real equivalents of FFXI's Artifact or Level-Cap quests. While this could be seen as a good thing (let's face it, those quests can be annoying as hell), it does mean you have relatively few chances to spend significant amounts of time grouping with people.
Indeed, the social aspects of WoW are among the weakest. I don't mind playing a MMORPG where you can level-grind solo, but I'll always prefer a situation where grouping brings advantages. Except at the very top levels of WoW (where there's not much left to do anyway), this just doesn't happen. Even as a Mage, the fastest way for me to level up was to run around on my own killing things. Of course, I'd need to find groups for a few of the quests, but this just exposed more weaknesses in WoW. Simply put, the actual infrastructure in place to support the game's social aspects SUCK beyond belief. After being used to FFXI's search and trading functions, WoW was like going back to the dark ages. The upshot of this is that much of your time playing WoW is spent running around solo. To be honest, I could get this from Neverwinter Nights with no monthly fee.
I'll admit that I effectively gave up on the game before reaching 60. However, a large factor in this was that I'd reached a point where I had some degree of sight into the end-game content and I realised how little there was. Simply put, when you hit 60, it's more or less time to start a new character. I'll admit that FFXI perhaps goes too far the other way here; the length of time required to hunt Higher-Notorious-Monsters, complete the Zilart missions and, most of all, get a fully upgraded relic weapon is obscene. However, this does provide something to do once you reach the end of the level-grind and it's a good incentive to keep playing. Moreover, the rate of content addition to WoW has been pitiful. I know there's a big content patch planned for later this year, but to be frank, with a MMORPG, these patches need to be every couple of months; not every year or so.
I'd predict that in the long term, WoW will level out at about
Even though I don't agree with the article, you totally misread it. He said that EQ and FFXI are games built around the concept of social interaction in order to complete some in-game goal, where he lumps WoW with the games like CoH and Planetside where he believes the focus is on some novel game mechanic. He believes that these games based on a novel game mechanic only last as long as the mechanic is novel, or some other game with a more novel game mechanic doesn't come out. The third game type he refers to as "world building" games, where players actively influence the game world, such as UO and SWG (building houses and cities and such).
Re-read the article, then come post again when you comprehend it and can see its true flaws (such as the fact that WoW really combines the two game types, just that the end game isn't totally fleshed out yet), instead of flaws that are simply the result of your miscomprehension.
One thing left out of the article is the static nature of most content in MMORPGs. Once you get your sword of uberness, you start to look around and everyone else has the same stuff, so what fun is that? A little more randomness and chance in quality and uniqueness of items would make a nice difference. Also, why is it when I loot a humanoid mob that was carrying an axe and wearing leather armor I get a sword or some other non-related crappy item? There is a total disconnect between what you hunt and what you get itemwise that just seems silly. WoW is the same thing, which is one reason why I quit after level 60 and getting my epic mount. I'm just like every other cookie-cutter template with the same armor, same sword, same items, and nothing to do.
JavaLord, the 'uber' gear simply cannot be bought in the AH.
:)
FileNotFound, the weapon I am currently using I have been using since level 44. Kang the Decapitator
Which item would have been more 'uber' at my level? I don't see people even from the top clans running around with that kind of gear at my level. I believe I made my money because I didn't have to sacrifice my tradeskills, greens, or blues for "the good of the guild".
I realize that some of the highest level gear, (IE the sword of hanna) isn't available unless you have raid groups. Others are, as I often see lightforge or valor armor for sale on our AH.
Good guilds do NOT have "ninja" problems because they have trust or DKP systems.
I saw one of the top guilds on our server throw a guy out because they accused him of "ninja looting" a sword that was usable for his class, and an upgrade but would have been better for someone else (ie a warrior). While I can understand guilds throwing a non casting class out who roll on cloth, or a mage rolling on plate; I constantly see stories of people getting 'blacklisted' for rolling on equipment they could use, but some other guildie could also use.
It basically comes down to playground politics, which is why I refuse to join such guilds. Even the most successful guilds on my server seem to have issues like this.
I get a lot more enjoyment out of soloing, grouping with a few friends in the rare case I need to group, and PvPing.
I do not intend to go yell "PLAY MY WAY", but I dare say that I think you're really missing out.
Or maybe you are missing out.
I think what is really at issue is on a basic level, people play MMO's (and games) for different reasons.
You play games to make friends with other players
I play games to kick asses.
"Same time, hardcore John has myriads of grinds to keep him occupied. And if that isn't enough, he has still PvP, Upper Blackrock Spire, Molten Core and Onyxia."
That "myriad" isn't big enough. I've run Upper Blackrock Spire probably... thirty times since the first UBRS run on my server. Stratholme... fifteen times, Scholomance, maybe three times, Onyxia ten times... How many times am I supposed to run them? They're only really fun the first few times!
So I've run UBRS 40 times. I swear to you there will NOT be a 100th time. There won't even be a 50th time. Looking at the gas gauge, WoW is currently running on Empty. Aside from running these dungeons another dozen times each, without any Battlegronds or Honor System for PvP, there's no way I can meaningfully contribute to the world.
If I had to paraphrase the article, it would be that the casual MMORPGs are like a stick of gum. Easy to use, but by definition temporary. When you chew on them a little while, they flavor goes out. To get longer appeal, they need to be a buffet restaurant, where new and interesting dishes keep getting refreshed at the buffet line.
I've unsubscribed from WoW. If they can win me back I'll reactivate my account. Until then I'm lost to them. If I leave, it will tempt my friends to leave a bit more, and my guild will be slightly emptier. Some guild people have already left. This sort of effect could easily snowball into an exodus from WoW.
If he had, he would have at least made some mention of WoW's guilds and friends list and on what an impact that can have on player activities in the game. Regularily scheduled guild events, consistent contact with the same people, getting to know other folks over time through chat, etc. are, for me, turning out to be more interesting parts of the WoW experience than I expected.
But the author didn't discuss any of that. Witness this key quote:
Though the subscriptions support my theory, my primary reasoning is that this is due to the kind of game World of Warcraft is. Most players in World of Warcraft have no reason to engage in long-term socialization. Without socialization, the main draw the game has always been the novelty of the game play. This is so evident that even the world, with its nice variety between zones, doesn't feel worldly enough: it lacks "epic" and feels like a game.
If the only loyalty that players have to World of Warcraft is in the novelty of the game mechanic, this leaves it vulnerable on at least two very important fronts. The first front: once players grow bored of the game mechanic, there's no reason to hang around anymore. The second front: Players will be easily distracted by another game with better core mechanics.
Maybe he's just approaching the game "all wrong", but I think he's missed something here.
One last thing, it does not take a genius to predict that "what goes up, must come down". The real question isn't whether WoW will be a top 5 game for a long period of time, the real question is whether it will be fantastically profitable to Blizzard and give them the breathing room they need to indulge in creating rich new content, game mechanics, social situations in the game, etc.
Please mod this post only if you think others should/n't read this. I have enough ego^H^H^Hkarma. Thanks!