3 Million in Xbox 2 Sales At Christmas?

Forbes has a look at the upcoming release of the Xbox 2 console, from Goldman-Sachs. Speculation is put forth on the unit's cost as well as how it might do in sales. From the article: "The research firm, which rates Microsoft at 'outperform,' expects Xbox 2 to be available for retail sale in October or November at a retail price of about $249 to $299."

Comments

3 million?

[the_skywise]

And pigs might fly out my butt.

Okay, seriously. if they have them in STOCK this year and Sony's PS/3 doesn't come out at the same time, then maybe. But it took almost 6 months to reach the million mark for PS/2's.

It depends

[MilenCent]

It depends almost entirely on what lineup the system has at launch. An enhanced version of Halo 2 may help, but it won't be enough. If the system lacks backwards compatibility it'll be tougher going.

Re:It depends

[bigman2003]

One of the latest rumors, was that a dressed up version of Halo 2 (or 2.5, whatever) would be installed on the hard-drive/whatever-memory of the Xbox 2.

Of the 6 million or so people who bought Halo 2 in the opening months...a super-deluxe version in HD with new maps, and an ending would entice at least a million people to buy right away.

Including me.

MX vs. ATV is an HD game...but it looks like ass. Yes, very clear ass, but still ass. I would like to see what the Xbox 2 hardware can do with HD.

First to Market

[Moby Cock]

I think that Microsoft believes that being first to market with a next-gen console will solidify their position in that market, and I further believe that they are wrong. I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out. When the PS2 launched, it was time, the PS1 had been around for years and the envelope on that tech was pushed to the limit. The PS2 (and Nintendo) launches were timed well. I know PS3 is coming (maybe this year too) but I expect much of that is because of MS pushing to get XBox 2 out early.

My main concern is that developers will not be ready to properly take advantage of the technology at launch. Thus, there will be a laundry list of ho-hum crap on XBox2 and the early launch will begin the decline of XBox. This is all speculation and conjecture but my gut tells me that XBox 2 will be about as big a hit as the PSP. That is, some hardcore gamers will rush out and pick it up, but most will have a wait-and-see-PS3 mentality.

Re:First to Market

[neverkevin]

"I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out."

I am not sure what you mean by "played-out" but the current gen is not adequate for HD. Microsoft is trying to beat everyone to the market with a system that can truly take advantage of HDTVs, I believe this may be a good strategy for them. The jump from standard def to high def is going to be more noticeable then the jump between the that last gen of consoles to the current one.

Re:First to Market

[KDR_11k]

I know PS3 is coming (maybe this year too) but I expect much of that is because of MS pushing to get XBox 2 out early.

The PS3 is scheduled for a 2006 release.

Despite the fate that hit the consoles trying to launch before Sony (Saturn, Dreamcast) I believe MS is going to take first place with the Xenon. Sony had their two generations on the top now, their policies are starting to piss devs off and the Cell might prove to be a bigger problem for devs than thought to be. MS has the momentum, they are seen as cool by the casual gamer. They are preparing to offer some games that appeal to the japanese customer base.

Historically, noone lasted more than two generations on the top and it was always the newcomer who took the crown. Atari fell after one gen, Nintendo and Sega after two. Analysts are predicting Sony's downfall and the PSP might hurt them.

I, for one, don't welcome our new monopolist console overlords.

Re:First to Market

[Daetrin]

Microsoft is trying to beat everyone to the market with a system that can truly take advantage of HDTVs, I believe this may be a good strategy for them. The jump from standard def to high def is going to be more noticeable then the jump between the that last gen of consoles to the current one.

So they're targeting those with too much money or too little sense? I don't know if the XBox2 is going to do well or not, but if _that's_ their marketing plan i'm going to downgrade their odds a few notches.

The PS2 sold very well, in part, because it could replace the need for a DVD player which at the time could cost almost as much as the PS2 itself, so it was targeting just about everyone with a tv who liked movies at that time except for the leading edge who'd already gotten a good DVD player.

The XBox on the other hand is (if what you said is true) targeting those who already have an expensive HDTV, or those who are willing to shell out the cash to get one in order to experience the increased capabilities of the XBox2. In other words they are specifically targeting the leading edge who have spent or are willing to spend a significant amount of money, rather than the mass market which wants to save a few (hundred) bucks if possible.

Maybe if they get in good with the technophiles then the word of mouth will help them sell well with the mass market, but that failed to work with the Dreamcast, so who knows.

Re:First to Market

[neverkevin]

HDTV is not expensive anymore. My mom just got a 32" HDTV for about $500, which is about $100 more the the average standard def 32" TV. HDTV is not just for the rich anymore.

Re:First to Market

[ivan256]

Nintendo and Sega after two... it was always the newcomer who took the crown.

How do you figure?

Remember that the SNES and the Genesis were in the same console generation. You'd be hard pressed to say that either company "won" that round, and Sega was hardly a newcomer at this point. You can't call Microsoft a newcomer anymore either.

Re:First to Market

[brkello]

There are 3 companies...Microsoft not being the top player...how can you call them a monopoly? Gaming is becoming more mainstream...the market may be able to handle 3 players now. I think right now is perfect...we have 3 strong competitors which is always a benefit to the consumer. MS is not going to take over this market. They are making a lot of good choices though (like signing Japanese game making companies to make games for them). I am looking forward to all of the next generation consoles. I am not going to buy any of them right when they come out though. Just like the PSP, I am going to give them time to mature and let the price drop. Really, there are still too many quality titles on the "older" gen systems that I need to compete before even thinking of what's next. The only good thing about being older is now I can be patient on these sort of things. As a kid, I needed the next big thing yesterday.

Re:First to Market

[Jakeypants]

"[T]here will be a laundry list of ho-hum crap on XBox2"

That's how system launches go nowadays. Here're the best games (in my opinion) to launch with systems in recent years:
Dreamcast: Sonic Adventure
PS2: SSX
GBA: Super Mario Advance (Mario 2)
GameCube: Luigi's Mansion
Xbox: Halo (well, I hated it, but I'm the only one)
DS: Mario 64
PSP: Lumines (I haven't played it, but this is what they say is the best)

The DS and PSP still need more time to prove themselves, but the rest of those games, save for maybe Sonic Adventure weren't really all that good. A new system doesn't need awesome games, it just needs lots of games. The early adopters will pay $50 for shitty games just so that they have something to play on their new systems. I always bought new systems based on the promise of good games in the future, and I really don't think I'm alone in that.

Re:First to Market

[ZephyrXero]

In 2006, the US gov't will require all TV broacasters to use digital HD format. HDTV sales will be going through the roof next year, and this is the perfect time for MS to take advantage of that.

As the parent mentioned, the 32" 16:9 is smaller vertically than the 4:3 32". I really wish companies would quit using the diagonal dimensions to make consumers just go "Wow! a 32" screen" even though it's the same size as a regular 25" vertically (just guessing). They need to just tell us the width by height instead. I'll probably end up trying to wait off a year or two with a cheap HDTV convertor until prices go a little further down though ;)

Re:First to Market

[ZephyrXero]

The market will not support 3 consoles. It isn't right now, and no one but those big three want it. We need an Open Console Standards group to form and create an open format so that all games work on all systems.

Re:First to Market

[NanoGator]

"I'm not sure that the current generation of consoles is played-out."

There's a difference between "played out" and "I wanna see something new". Assuming the XBOX 2 is visually better than the XBOX (given the serious upgrade in texture RAM, I'd say this is likely) there'll be demand for it. Since the XBOX does have a decent following right now, they've already got their early adopter base.

"My main concern is that developers will not be ready to properly take advantage of the technology at launch."

The extra RAM alone will be more than enough. Textures will come in at higher res and in multiple passes. It's not like they'll have to turn the dev kit upside down to make this happen.

"This is all speculation and conjecture but my gut tells me that XBox 2 will be about as big a hit as the PSP. That is, some hardcore gamers will rush out and pick it up, but most will have a wait-and-see-PS3 mentality."

Eh. I don't think it's that clear. Part of the PSP's problem is that it's too expensive. Another part of the PSP's problem is that it's a portable PS2... so what? The XBOX 2, however, is (or at least should be) considerably more powerful. It shouldn't be any more than $299, which is a fairly standard price. And it's likely MS will show some compelling demos to say "Yep, this thing is cooll!" I've seen a few screengrabs of next-gen samples, and yeah, the difference will be noticable.

I can't say you're wrong, but you definitely will not be right until the event has happened.

Re:First to Market

[ZephyrXero]

With the exception of Halo and Mario 64, all those games were bland, medium quality games. Launch titles usually suck these days and the good one's don't come out till the following christmas. And I agree the DS and PSP have to be out over a year or two before we can pass an honest judgement on them. I won't make be buying any of the new consoles until all 3 have been out for at least a year and I really know which one's the best. I bought the Dreamcast at launch, and we all know what happened there :( ...I got the Xbox at launch and it's served me well, but I'm still a little disappointed at the game selection. It's hard for tech lovers to wait, but I'm gonna try...

As for Sonic Adventure, that was a horrible travesty compared to the orignal Genesis games. Sonic just doesn't work in 3D it seems. (For reference, Sonic 2 is one of my favorite games ever...so I may be a little biased)

Re:First to Market

[ZephyrXero]

I wouldn't be surprised if the standard output cables that come with the Xbox are some sort of HD format like HDMI, and then you have to buy a seperate one for older Composite(RCA) or RF connections just like you do with the current generation for RFs.

Re:First to Market

[bigman2003]

About 18 months ago I took a chance on a 4:3 HDTV. I figured that MOST of the TV I watched was 4:3 anyway. And, since my limitation is width (TV cabinet limitation that is) a little extra height would be okay.

Just this weekend I finally ran 1080i for the first time. I was very happily surprised when my TV showed the image in a letterbox format...I was a little worried that it would just chop off the edges.

So my gamble paid off- I've been enjoying a nice big 4:3 TV for a year and a half...and I am ready when the new Xbox comes out with real HD support.

I am a little disappointed that my TV cannot go to 720p. But, at the time I bought my TV there was a huge difference in cost between a 1080i set, and a 720p set.

Re:First to Market

[adler187]

First of all your not the only one who hated Halo, I did too.

Also, The best launch title for the Dreamcast was by far Soul Calibur. It was actually better than the arcade version, not only in extras but also graphically. You are correct though, for the most part launch titles suck.

Re:First to Market

[fondue]

"The market will not support 3 consoles."

Where have you been for the last four years?

Re:Yes, but..

[KDR_11k]

Depends on whether it will have backwards compatibility, I'd bet on "no" though. Perhaps we'll see a Quake 4 and a HL2 port (I once heard that Valve was planning to release HL2 for all next gen consoles).

Well, Zonk's sold.

[misfit13b]

As for me, I'm getting a bit burned out already, and it's still a few weeks before the MTV wankfest.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy playing my Xbox, but the early bird pre-unveiling expectant hype before the hype is a bit much, no?

More market spin

[bigdady92]

The firm expects Microsoft to ship about 3 million units of the Xbox 2 worldwide in the December quarter.

That's what was said in the article. This means that the quarter can range from NOV to JAN and beyond. So this is not saying that DEC it will sell 3 million units alone but over a 3 month period.

I SERIOUSLY think this is an insane notion but at least they are keeping the price right at $249-299. That's about the breaking point for most consumers nowadays.

Me? I won't buy one until the modders got it and I can pick it up for $150 at the pawn shop where I got my last 3.

Can't wait to stop spending money!

[superultra]

I actually can't wait until the nextgen hits. It's clear that console devs have wrapped their brains around this gen, and with one hit after another (Gods of War, Psychonauts, Jade Empire, Doom 3, Splinter Cell, etc etc) I'm clean out of cash.

I need a new console generation if only to stop spending money, so I can get a breather and watch the devs stumble around with the technology for 3 or 4 years. It's just now that they're figuring out that it's not Havoc physics or glowy effects that make a game.

Going to depend on how many they can deliver

[slusich]

I think 3 million is probably a good estimate, IF they can get them into stores that quickly. With the release being so close to the holiday season, I'll be surprised if it's not a major hassle to find one between the release date and xmas.

I Don't Consider Forbes Reliable

[robbway]

Last March, Forbes acknowledged the multimedia aspects of the PSP, but failed to recognize those aspects as significance, saying it did "little else" than play video games. Also, the article was dated April 8, 2005, a full 2 weeks in the future from when it was published.

Now, just because I don't think they know anything about video games other than historic sales figures and stocks, that doesn't mean they aren't reliable for business news. They're just a little sloppy in the games department.

Re:On the price

[UWC]

Gamecube launched at $199. And there's speculation that since XBox 2 will have a few variations with respect to included hardware that the lowest end might be a little below the standard price.

Why so early?

[Andy_R]

The longer they waited to launch, the better the launch titles would be, and hardware improvements will mean they could either make the machine better, or reduce their losses for the same spec.

If they do go early, they are trading off just one christmas as the only next-gen console in the shops against 4 years of being the least modern console when the other 2 arrive.

There are only 2 ways this strategy is going to be cost effective:
If they can get a contolling market share over that first holiday season or;
If they have the processor power/locked in developers needed to compete on the quality of games for the next 4 years, or however long this generation lasts, despit the others having more hardweare development time.

Given that Nintendo already tried the second option and pretty much failed to set the world on fire with the Gamecube, and Sega tried the first option with the Dreamcast and got burnt to a crisp, I really don't know what Microsoft are thinking.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Xbox2 strategy was a quick cash-grab before folding the home gaming divison, especially if Sony's cell chips deliver the computing power they are promising in a usable form.

Re:Why so early?

[ArsonSmith]

I bet all three marketing and management teams got tegether at some big convention and made a bet. They'll all three release systems with the exact same hardware (from IBM) but spin it in their own marketing manor and plan release times according to all the theroies you see thrown around and see who can win.

It would be an interesting experiment at least.

Not a trackball, and the new Dreamcast?

[solowCX]

There is no way that is a trackball. Unless you have really long fingers there would be no way to comfortably hold the controller while using it. More than likely it is a white Xbox logo, IF this the real controller. Microsoft is seemingly taking the Sega track for Xbox 2 however. Going from black system to white, releasing it before everyone else, and (most likely) using a disc with less capacity (Dreamcast used a GD-ROM instead of DVD). Probably other similarities as well.

Wireless controller?

[solowCX]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but in those (possible) controller images, there is no cord. Could it be wireless will now become standard?

Re:Wireless controller?

[Ayaress]

I hope not. I've always had bad luck with wireless controllers. They're great and all, but all it takes is a glitch in the signal for a split second while a boss is about to bring a huge hammer down on my head, and it'll suffer one of those unfortunate warranty-ending accidents.

Two words - Blu Ray

[GreatDrok]

I think MS is in an unfortunate position if they want to grab the HD high ground as their XBox2 is supposed to only have a DVD drive. While it is conceivable that they will push more of their WMV9 HD DVDs for this platform I would say it is much more likely that there will be significant HD movies on the Blu Ray discs that the PS3 is going to use. More to the point, the extra capacity of the discs will give PS3 developers more room to do some great things. The more I look the more the XBox2 looks like the Dreamcast of this next generation. The DC had a CD-ROM drive whereas the competition have DVD drives. The DC came out too early and the game developers couldn't justify working just on that platform so games didn't really shine compared with those for the PlayStation. It doesn't bode well for Microsoft. They really should wait until HD-DVD is ready and go with that but of course then they lose their six month (at best) head start on Sony. Without an HD video format the XBox2 is going to look old hat before its packaging is cold....

Re:Scope of Launch

[LWATCDR]

"1. Spend $300 on an Xbox2 with no backwards compatibility"
Are you sure? Microsoft bought VirtualPC for a reason. The new PowerPC chip might have the power to emulate the chip in the current XBox. The change to the new Video chip set maybe a none issue if the game uses directX.

"lukewarm developer support," I do not know about this. Microsoft is pretty good at making developers happy.

"2. Wait a few months and buy a more powerful, cheaper, vastly better-supported Playstation 3."
I actually hope so. I really do hope the Cell is everything they it is. But cheaper? Any proof?

Backwards? Who cares..

[Taulin]

Who cares if the XBox2 is backwards compatible if I can't transfer my game saves to the new system. There are many games (mostly by Tecmo) that don't allow memory card saves.

Re:Yes, but..

[bigman2003]

Half-Life 2 *IS* coming out for the Xbox.

Here is the story.

Developer's kits will win this battle

[Datamonstar]

The idea that a development kit for a console should be done like a PC game development kit was a radical idea upon X-box's entry upon the industry. It just wasn't done like that, and yes, Eastern culture's infuence had something to do with this fact. SDK's were made to accomodate the hardware, not the developer's. In the end, no matter how complicated a development kit is developers who are familliar with it and talented enough to use it as the tool for the proper task will create great work with it.
Of course, this also means that developer's who become too familir with it so as to produce work without having to put much effort into it may do this instead. So developer's kits are only a small piece of the picture.
The developer's themselves and liscencing strategies will make or break these systems. With this consoles this has largely been the case for forever. A new development process will not deter a good development house from creating good titles. A bad development process, however, may corner the entire industry into a pattern of handling certain features in games only one way. It isn't nesscarily bad for the company, but it would likely bad for the industry.
I just hope that there are development houses out there that will dedicate themsleves and take time making launch games so that they can learn the subtle differences in the systems. The games will take longer to make, which is a bad thing in the games industry, but the games will be better. I'm tired of seeing developers do easy things that get them a lot of oohs and ahs and credit for a little bit of nothing. Developers: make better games!!! Use your tools to the fullest.