Next Generation Not Official Until PS3

Gamespot has word that a Wedbush Morgan analyst has advised investors to hold off on throwing money at the gaming market, because the rapid growth prompted by the next generation consoles may not materialize until the PS3 launches late in 2006. He also makes some other forecasts for sectors of the gaming market. From the article: "Elsewhere in the memo, Pachter predicts that console and PC sales will finish the year up 10 percent over 2004, that a price cut for the redesigned PlayStation 2 will be enacted 'no later than fall,' and that the PlayStation Portable and Nintendo DS will have similarly successful years, moving 3.5 million and 3.6 million units, respectively."

Comments

So he is ..

[FidelCatsro]

So the man is advising that investors hold off on investing right now , a time when the market is mostly weaker and ripe for investment at a cheap price and Telling people to invest when the new consoles are out ,you know the time that stocks and many other things will skyrocket...

Perhaps yes they may peak then dip towards the end of the year , but they should definantly skyrocket around the release of the new consoles, holding off is possibly only wise if you intend on investing during the calm before the storm(probably about the same position the market will be in right now , missing out on a chance to take advantage of an expected mid-end of year high).

It hapens every time a new set of consoles are released , the market take very positive swing .. This is why i never listen to analysts

Did Sony fund this?

[ZephyrXero]

Sounds to me like this guy's trying to promote the idea that PS3 will be unstoppable and there's no use bothering with the Xbox 360. However, from the way things have been going, MS might have quite a powerful little system on their hands. If they market it right, there's a slight chance they could end up with the dominant console this go round...unless Nintendo's Revolution can live up to its name.

Or, maybe he just realizes that the industry is about to flood the market with crappy games and too many choices for consumers...thus causing everyone's sales to slump. No matter how powerful any of the new systems are, it's going to be hard to explain to Joe Average why he needs a new system when the one he's got looks just fine to him/her...

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[FidelCatsro]

He definantly seems to be working for sony(not that i totaly disagree with the dominance of the ps3) , I just cant for the life of me see why we should hold off on investing in the market right now .
The main reason i dont think the xbox next will take the market by storm , is unlike the sony ps3 it dosn't have all the markets .
Japan and surrounding regions iirc don't even normaly count the xbox , and that is the #1 market .
Nintendo will as normall , have the nich and will stay strong unless the reveloution really does as it say on the box.
Xbox will play second fiddle , maybe trading places a bit in the EU and US markets
and still fail to captre the japanese gamers.
Sony will have another hit on their hands and seeing the psp launch line up , they have lernt from the mistakes of the ps2 launch so expect a good one.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[KDR_11k]

I don't see the Revolution becoming the next #1, Nintendo has too little momentum and trust of third parties in the home console sector. This is a guranteed victory for Microsoft unless Sony manages to completely kill them with hype. MS is too good in playing the hype game to be defeated by that. MS isn't Sega, they'll fight much harder and dirtier. So MS has a year to fortify their lead, then go from there. More games = more gamers.

What will be more interesting is the PS3 vs. Revolution battle for second place. Sony's arrogant behaviour (which will be nothing compared to what MS will do to their licensees should they archieve total domination) will probably bite them in the ass the same way it did Nintendo in the N64 generation. In an ideal scenario all consoles will end up approximately equal, creating lots of competition. Of course that scenario sucks when you only have the money for one...

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[ZephyrXero]

Actually, Japan hasn't been the largest market for games for quite a few years now... When Sony made the PS1 cool for non-gamers to get on board, America's sales soared. The US has the largest portion of the market these days (development as well), while the Japanese market continues to shrink each year. Apparently the Japanese care about quality and so they realize that 90% of games coming out are crap unlike the consumers over here. ;)

As far as Xbox 360 being successful in Japan this time, it looks like they've gotten some pretty important Japanese developers on board to make it more appealing there. Many developers begrudgedly designed games for the PS2 because it was a nightmare to program on, but still had the largest market share. If there is anywhere near a tie for first place, the system that is easier to develop for will surely win out, although all 3 systems look to be pretty much the same machine...all 3 have IBM power-based processors and a next-gen PC graphics card. I personally think it's time for a console standard to be developed instead of all this non-sense...

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[KDR_11k]

MS is preparing a lot of games focussed on the japanese market. If they manage to sell some numbers they might pull in further support and finally gain a foothold in Japan. Even if they aren't the leaders in Japan, they'll still get japanese third party support because those think they might sell more in the US and EU markets than Japan. Japan is moving towards a game crash anyway which is why you're seeing Iwata spout BS about a videogame crash, it won't happen here but Japan is moving towards it. Even more reason for japanese developers to stop focussing on their own country. Of course, some will some won't but in the end he X2 will at least see decent japanese support.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[negative3]

I'll be as sad as anybody, if not moreso, to see this be the end of Nintendo. MS is beating them to the release, and Sony might - will there be a big enough audience for the Nintendo when it comes out? I would definitely like to see the new Zelda & Metroid incarnations for the new one, though.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[demondawn]

The problem with Microsoft, with the XBox especially, is that they didn't cater to the Japanese market. While I will certianly grant that there are good games coming out of the U.S. houses, now moreso than ever, the majority of console games are still translations of Japanese titles. As long as Microsoft doesn't cater to the Japanese market, they will suffer the "less titles" fate, and possibly relive the one-trick horse lifestyle it had for a long time with Halo. Certianly there were other games for XBox (and even other excellent titles), but for the longest time, everyone only knew the XBox for Halo. A good strategy for Microsoft could be partnering with anime production companies. Anime is not only a staple of Japanese entertainment, but extremely hot in the U.S. right now. DBZ aside, there is more demand for anime-based games then there are games in the U.S., and this is a niche market that Microsoft could clean up in on both sides of the Pacific. Microsoft has to also accept the idea of the throwaway title, something very hard for them to swallow. Because the business model for the XBox was making money on the software, the price of games always remained relatively high. Some PS2 games, by contrast, shot down quickly in price. (Look at the Greatest Hits series.) Furthermore, lots of Japanese titles cater to niche markets, and if Microsoft wants to be a success in Japan (a HUGE gaming market) they need to embrace these niche developers. These companies make games like "Super Kanji Quiz 2000" and "Makoto-chan's Wonder Kitchen" that like 10000 people buy, yet the companies that make them are small enough that they still turn a profit. Mist Walker and Sega are powerful additions to the XBox lineup...I'm especially excited to see what Mist Walker will come up with (and how Square Enix will fare without Hironobu Sakaguchi's creative direction.) I think in the end it really does come down to the games and not the hardware. There are games for the Super NES/Super Famicom that are still incredibly fun to play. Has there really been a better puzzle game than Tetris? (I've heard Lumines for the PSP comes close.) And there have been games with great graphics and absolutely atrocious gameplay for modern consoles. For many people, the decision to buy a game console will be based on "does it have the games I want to play?"

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[FidelCatsro]

Well i more mean #1 as in importance , Its the home market for alot of the biggest names in console gaming . and everyone knows how important pleasing the home crowd can be.

Xbox360 has alot of good japanese companys onbaord to make games , agreed MS are doing their best to push into the market(The debate on if they are abusing their monopoly to do this is another thing though).Also will MS be able to market to the japanese gamers this is a big question mark.
The advantage this time though wont be in MSs court (Well considering how ***explitived** up the ps2 launch was), they dont have the extra time to trump the other consoles with a more powerfull machine and i doubt sony will repeat the mistakes of last time(for the love of god I hope not).

The key to this (I belive)will be how well cell really lives up to expectations.
If as noted Cell is as powerfull as they say it will be then nothing will be touching the ps3 (bar nintendo actualy managing to pull a reveloution out of the um reveloution).
I belive the xbox360 will be using a ppc procesor and nintendo will most likely also go that route .So these questions remain...

1:Will cell live up to the hype
2:Can MS market to the japanese crowd
3:What the hell are nintendo up to

Awnser those and you have your investment idea

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[soniCron88]

If as noted Cell is as powerfull as they say it will be then nothing will be touching the ps3

Power is nothing. The PS1 was integer based, non-texture-blending, nasty resolution, bitch to program for. The N64 was FAR superior in every respect than storage. Full screen anti-aliasing, bilinear filtered textures, the works. Xbox is far superior to the PS2. Who's winning?

By the same token: which systems were released first, and won market share? Which systems had a multi-national market? Those are much more important than processing speed, though the systems do have to be roughly comparable.

1:Will cell live up to the hype

No. Cell processing, as an idea and method, are better, but this particular processor are not as powerful as people would like to believe.

2:Can MS market to the japanese crowd

They sure are trying really hard to. With some of the developers they've got, and their system coming out first, they may just win it.

3:What the hell are nintendo up to

Long as it's not another Virtual Boy, I think it's safe to know they're going to stick in the game/toy market, because MS and Sony are obviously trying to reach different types of audiences. Why people even bother comparing Nintendo to MS and Sony is beyond me. As cool as super-awesome-3D-shader-blended-real-time-lighting -highdef-output graphics are, one thing that most developers have forgotten is how to make a game.

Making a game used to be about making it fun. But with the race to make the hardware more powerful to provide a more immersive experience, I think they forgot why they were making games in the first place. They're just making really fancy toys, but most come out like it's this really serious issue. That's not to say that there's no place for that, but what have all the most successful and super-popular games have in common? They're games! Not "experiences". Fun first, atmoshphere last.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[FidelCatsro]

Agreed , though my thinking on if cell will live up to the hype is more that Allt hree consoles on paper are otherwise pretty equal(bar nintendo who god knows what they ahve planned but i cant wait to find out) And the marketing will be as strongperhaps MS will learn the leasson)
So the only thing really waiting to edge out the competition this time around is those three things (and a few hit titles but i really can't theorise as to what those will eb yet)
Cell could be the gold ticket to push the ps3 above the rest , as i imagine they will all offer simmilar multi-media capabilityss.

Honestly im not normaly one to put it down to power(my main computer is a eMac with a 1.25ghz g4 , not my Athlon 65 or a g5) but all else being equal the deciders are going to be MSs marketing in japan and what sony have up their sleves with Cell

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[Anonymous Coward]

insert typO jokes about my athlon64+1(65) and they typOs yada yada :P
Just beating the trolls to the rush

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[KDR_11k]

I'm seeing MS pull in more japanese devs, the market over there is slowly dying which is where Iwata got his idea of the upcoming videogame crash from. Japan as a target market is losing relevance, therefore japanese companies are trying to push their titles to the US and EU markets, which show no signs of disappearing. That, combined with MS's momentum and their early launch (no other next gen system will be out that early) is sure to grab some attention. It won't magically take away all third party support from Nintendo and Sony but it will give MS the support needed to archieve dominance. Sure, some will stay with Sony or Nintendo, for ideological reasons or because they believe Sony will once again triumph, but they will no longer be the only ones with japanese support.

As for a better puzzle than Tetris, that's completely subjective. If you asked me I'd say Puyo Puyo already surpassed Tetris, others would argue that Bejewelled is better, etc.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[Anonymous Coward]

"1:Will cell live up to the hype

No. Cell processing, as an idea and method, are better, but this particular processor are not as powerful as people would like to believe."

After years of reading console discussions on the Net, every once in awhile I still am surprised from time to time by the sheer stupidity of people like you.

Fucking sad.

Go back to Usenet fanboy.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[Anonymous Coward]

Go play your PS1, you penis.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[Anonymous Coward]

You realize your sig isn't funny at all, right? Physicists are such phaggots...

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[PhotoBoy]

The PS1 was integer based, non-texture-blending, nasty resolution, bitch to program for. The N64 was FAR superior in every respect than storage.

I agree with most of your post, but having programmed the PS1 and the N64, the N64 was much harder to program for. Thanks to excellent libraries from Sony it was a breeze to get things done on the PS1. God knows why they made the PS2 so hard to program for though...

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[DeadScreenSky]

While I will certianly grant that there are good games coming out of the U.S. houses, now moreso than ever, the majority of console games are still translations of Japanese titles.

This isn't true any reasonable way you look at it. Japan buys less games than Europe or the US, being a pretty distant third as a videogame market. And in the West you just need to look at the top 20 or so sellers every year to see that though Japanese games are important, they aren't remotely the biggest factor.

It's possible Japan releases more console games than other countries, but 95% of these never make it out of Japan.

You have some good points, but a lot of your post is filled with this kind of nonsense (like the Greatest Hits argument - you know MS has followed this kind of strategy with Platinum Hits from a very early date, right?).

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[DeadScreenSky]

Apparently the Japanese care about quality and so they realize that 90% of games coming out are crap unlike the consumers over here. ;)

I know you are semi-joking, but it's always amusing to look at the best-selling games every week in Japan. They buy a lot of shitty games, just like gamers in other countries. :D

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[mister_slim]

No, he recognizes that the money in games is made from software sales. Selling games to an install base of 3 million Xbox 360s, 1 million PS3s, and a million N5s (numbers made up, I'm not precognitive) does not have the same revenue potential as selling a game to an install base of 70 million PS2s, and 20 million each of Xbox and Gamecube. I actual expect the industry to really pick up about six months to a year after the PS3 launchs, once gamers have seen all the systems and publishers have a better idea where to send their developing dollars.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[demondawn]

You have some good points, but a lot of your post is filled with this kind of nonsense (like the Greatest Hits argument - you know MS has followed this kind of strategy with Platinum Hits from a very early date, right?). I didn't, actually. I do confess more than a bit of ignorance when it comes to the XBox in general. I didn't buy one, because, like I said, it doesn't have the games I want. (anime-style games and Final Fantasy(and similar RPGs)).

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[KDR_11k]

However, when there's a lack of titles at launch you have better chances selling your not exactly great game. Look at the DS, it already has two million-sellers. Those wouldn't have made that much money on another console because they couldn't compete.

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[Anonymous Coward]

Thank you for that clarification! ;)

Is this the...

[demondawn]

"buy high, sell low" school of market investment?

We will have to see at E3

[soimless]

Sony is a big forse to be reconed with but I don't think they are big enoff to stop anyone from buying the Xbox. Mirosoft has aquried a lot of game devlopers and can at least make a descent game in a year. What Nintendo is doing is what we shouuld try to look at they seem like they kinda know what they are doing. Right now Nintendo may been in third market wise but they are the only ones makeing a profit of sorts. They are a big reason why Mirosoft is loseing so much money becuse Nintendo can make the GameCube so Cheaply. Nintendo can also live on its own and if they release before there console before the PS3 Sony will have to have a lot of caching up to do. Right now we have no real Idea what the games will look like on any of the systems and what type of games to expect. A year is a long time and I think Sony is going to find them selfs behind.

Re:We will have to see at E3

[DrEldarion]

Nintendo can also live on its own

It's good to see that Nintendo isn't living in its parents' basement anymore.

Yeah Right

[magnus_1986]

This guy does not know that he is talking about. Agreed that the gaming market will (theoretically) be busting at its seams after the release of the next generation of gaming consoles but the hardware is not the main revenue generator, its the software. Look at all the quality games that have come out recently and are coming out, ratchet: Deadlocked, Jak X Racing, Sly 3 etc. Not to leave out Age of Empires 3 (yes, i know it is on the PC), gamespy has wonderful previews, interviews, hands-ons and whatnots here
Not to mention the ongoing lukewarm sales of PSPs and DSes. The market is still making a huge profit, period. And anyone who invests in this is in for getting a little richer.

Now lets apply this to everything

[RoyIreson]

Don't buy cars! the next generation wont start until the 2006 models come out! Oh No! You mean my car wont work as well then?

ha-ha analysts

[evilmousse]

i honestly don't know how Wedbush Morgan goes about reaching these conclusions, but if i were to guess, it'd be largely a statistical method, perhaps with a little research into the procuding companies. i would NOT expect wm to have the slightest awareness of any of the gaming culture: we're widgets and cattle to them. so laugh while they try to understand our whim.

Strange numbers...

[MagicDude]

"PlayStation Portable and Nintendo DS will have similarly successful years, moving 3.5 million and 3.6 million units, respectively."

I don't understand where those numbers are coming from. Are they predicting that the DS is only going to sell 3.6 million units? That's already not true according to this article, which says that the DS has already sold over 5 million units. Or, if they're saying that these numbers are what each unit is going to sell this year, well then I still can't really believe that the DS will outsell the PSP, or that the PSP will be limited to under 4 million sales. Could someone translate all this marketing and sales analysis mumbo-jumbo?

Re:Strange numbers...

[Anonymous Coward]

Makes sense that the PSP wouldn't do as well as the DS. Nintendo handhelds have a much better established fanbase, and the DS is a lot cheaper than the PSP in terms of both hardware and software. In that respect at least, the article seems plausable.

Re:Strange numbers...

[e1618978]

"Shipments of the PlayStation Portable, which went on sale late last year in Japan and earlier this year in the United States, totaled 2.97 million worldwide."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050427/earns_japan_sony.ht ml?.v=5

He must be predicting some pretty bleak times ahead for the PSP 8-) The DS has 5 million out, but it has been on the market much longer - it looks like the PSP will pass the DS by 3rd quarter or so.

Re:Queue The Indignant Xbox Fanboys...

[ksaville00]

I really don't think sony has it...the xbox live service has done awesome and they are just going to improve on it...this may be the saving grace of xbox2

Re:Queue The Indignant Xbox Fanboys...

[Anonymous Coward]

There are roughly only a million or so xbox live subscribers out of the 120 or so total current gen console owners in the world, it is for the most part irrelevant to the console market outside of its usual mention by xbox fanboys as some sort of 'edge' MS has that the rest of the world will never be able to catch up to.

Whatever.

Re:Queue The Indignant Xbox Fanboys...

[Vr6dub]

Uhhh....who's the fanboy here? I have no preference either way but it s hard to make a post being "anti-fanboy" when you're obviously one yourself, or just a troll...not sure which is worse.

Re:Queue The Indignant Xbox Fanboys...

[Anonymous Coward]

As compared to Sony on a radical new chip architecture that no-one's EVER developed on...

Sony have some great games and concepts and kick-ass technology... but I'm worried about a possible lack of games.

That being said - if PS3 works.. it might almost tempt me to buy a console...

Re:Queue The Indignant Xbox Fanboys...

[Anonymous Coward]

Oh shut up.

Stupid peecee fanboy. PS3 'radical'? Only if your sad little life is centered around the retarded x86/xbox architecture.

It makes sense...

[tprime]

I'm going to start off by saying that I am an xbox fan. While I have both a PS2 and an xbox, the low load times and controller on the xbox make it my favorite of the two.

That being said, I agree with the next gen not really beginning until the PS3 is released. Right now, Sony has the title of king of the consoles and, until they throw their hat into the ring, no one can really say the competition has begun.

Re:Queue The Indignant Xbox Fanboys...

[Anonymous Coward]

isnt that like saying online computer gaming is irrelevant because there are a lot more computers not playing games online than there are ones who are playing online?

How can you trust someone

[Anonymous Coward]

That can't even do a simple DNS lookup and see that the next Xbox isn't going to be Xbox 360. Investing in console is a stupid business. I can't understand why Sony again invested millions of dollars of money into something(PSP) that at best might return 20%. Nintendo and Microsoft are large software companies so it kind of makes sense but Sony isn't, they only have the licensing to help pay for selling the hardware at a loss. I guess that's why last year they sold 59 billion dollars worth of product and only made a 1 billion.

What did the sony spokesman said?

[AzraelKans]

...I mean "business analyst"

Jokes aside, it does make sense, Xbox had (really) bad sales in Japan and theres little to indicate that will change to a point where the xbox 2 becomes japan top console (in MS dreams perhaps), and then on the other hand Nintendo next console just doesnt sound promising enough, we know little about it, but what we know is old hat tech (hard drive, wi fi, gyroscope controls) and is unlikely for it to be the console wars winner.

So theres a good chance of Sony winning the console wars again. Not because its necesarily better, but due to its competitors not beating it in its own game: the Japanese market and the huge array of japanese developers and fanbase behind it. I mean, Right now MS is celebrating just because they have one of the creators of FF in the payroll, while Sony has FF as a pseudo exclusive franchise.

Theres a chance that xbox2 might come second in Japan but it depends on Nintendo next gen performance. we shall wait and see.

Re:What did the sony spokesman said?

[elrous0]

Xbox had (really) bad sales in Japan and theres little to indicate that will change to a point where the xbox 2 becomes japan top console (in MS dreams perhaps)

I predict Xbox will have super fun numbers in Japanese market. It will attack the spirits with much marketability, and build super action extra meaningful profits for honored investors.

-Eric

console sales figures

[Anonymous Coward]

From the link in the parent:

Xbox: 112
Gamecube: 8,329
Playstation 2: 33,080
(perhaps artifically high as an effect of the PStwo)

Yeah, I'd say that a new Xbox being released won't be huge news in Japan...