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Low-Cost Space Shuttle Replacement Proposed

FleaPlus writes "The Washington Times and Space.com has an article on a plan for a low-cost shuttle replacement by t/Space, an organization whose team includes AirLaunch LLC and Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites. Instead of a one-size-fits-all craft, t/Space's plan is to build an air-launched four-person capsule termed the Crew Transfer Vehicle (CXV), specialized for carrying people to and from low-Earth orbit. Once in orbit the CXV would dock with a separately-launched Crew Exploration Vehicle (likely built by Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman), which could be optimized for traveling between Earth orbit and the Moon. The CXV would also be able to dock with a space station or serve as a crew lifeboat. The group, which has already received some NASA funding, calculates that it can have the system ready by 2008 for $400 million, with a per-launch cost of $20 million (compared to ~$500 million per shuttle launch). Development would be done under a competitive fixed-price (instead of cost-plus) contract."

19 of 283 comments (clear)

  1. Shuttle Mod Editor by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I propose that Mr. Carmack Open Sources the plans to his giant bottle rocket and lets the end user create a deep space mod for it.

  2. Getting There, and Costs by Roland+Piguepaille · · Score: 5, Informative

    STS (the Space [Shuttle] Transportation System) is a flawed system design, with little compromise or tolerance for failures, systemic or political. On that issue alone, STS must be replaced.

    A much smaller Shuttle-like orbiter, which can be mated atop a Delta, Titan III or other medium-lift vehicle, is needed. It may look like the Crew Return Vehicle concept that's being rehashed into a shuttle replacement. I think it would have more merit to the old military DynaSoar [astronautix.com] project. Such a vehicle, unlike the Shuttle Orbiters we have, is not a truck...it would be a human taxi, with a small bay for some replacement consumables. For larger payloads and refurbs, use the old Orbiters--unmanned, remote controlled. If we can run robots from millions of miles away, we can surely do the same from low Earth orbit. In fact, the Russians showed it can be done with their own mortibund Shuttle--it's first and only flight was completely unmanned, from launch to landing. [astronautix.com] The old Orbiters would also double as rescue vehicles, along with having additional new Shuttle Taxis ready to go on other pads when a flight is in progress. We can't use single-use rockets for ISS refurbs since the pressurized cargo modules (like the special ones used by Orbiters during an ISS crew and experiment transition) has equipment that must come back. Only our Orbiters have the ability to return large equipment modules safely to Earth.

    We should be able to adapt single-use rockets to send new ISS components for assembly. The ISS will need more arms, and a new Orbiter replacement might need something like the current Canadian remote arm.

    The main thing I would recommend is (1) just make a reusable human taxi that (1) has an abort mode like the old Apollo spacecraft, where the new Orbiter can rocket away from the booster, as well as (2) a durable crew compartment that, in the case of normal reentry failure, could be separated from the larger body and land by parachute.

    Baby steps, please. A Shuttle replacement need not be all things as our current ones tried to be. For LEO, a simple crew vehicle will work. Later, the ISS or a moonbase should be used to create new, true spacecraft that ferry and from the Moon, and can use lunar material to build a Mars vehicle.

    When someone says that the cost to go to space is too expensive, I have to emphasize where the money goes to build the spacecraft. It's not like we take millions of dollar bills, smelt them into vehicles or stuff bills in the fuel tanks and set them afire. That money goes to WORKERS who build the space vehicles and COMPANIES that make jobs. That's economically a Good Thing.

    --
    To confirm you're not a script, please piss in my ear.
    1. Re:Getting There, and Costs by nietsch · · Score: 5, Informative
      This is a repost from a previous comment (bonus points for the link to it), if you go karma whoring, please be so kind to provide the correct link
      The X-20A Dyna-Soar (Dynamic Soarer) was a single-pilot manned reusable spaceplane, really the earliest American manned space project to result in development contracts. It evolved from the German Saenger-Bredt Silverbird intercontinental skip-glide rocket bomber[...]
      see more here

      here is more on the dynasoar:
      The X-20A Dyna-Soar (Dynamic Soarer) was a single-pilot manned reusable spaceplane, really the earliest American manned space project to result in development contracts. It evolved from the German Saenger-Bredt Silverbird intercontinental skip-glide rocket bomber
      see here


      and something about that Buran shuttle your rip mentions is here:
      The Russian Shuttle Buran ("Snowstorm" in Russian) was authorized in 1976 in response to the United States Space Shuttle program. Building of the shuttles began in 1980, with the first full-scale Aero-Buran rolling out in 1984. It was launched by Energia LV. read more here.


      As for the cost argument: yes it is true that if you contract all out in your own country, the nett cost for the state is lower than the expended amount. But those are still unproductive workers. If you have your doubts about a third world country doing space research, why use a different standard for first world countries. All those people (working on hyperexpensive spaceprojects) could also develop more and cleaner technologies that might avert the greenhouse runaway that the US seems to want so bad. (In that perspective it is completely logical that the US develops a new space shuttle at twice the cost).

      nuff said...
      --
      This space is intentionally staring blankly at you
  3. Hmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    "The group calculates that it can have the system ready by 2008 for $400 million".

    Alright guys, this means we will have it around 2015 for about $750 million.

    1. Re:Hmm by Jarnis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Actually, considering what Scaled Composites has done so far, and the budget they've used, I have some belief that this might be doable. Of course it would not include funds for running a huge NASA paperpusher army, so it probably won't include costs of extensive certifications and testings to get the failure rate down to minimal. Space is risky business, and spending megabucks for additional 1-2% success rate is just a bad idea. Every astronaut can themselves consider the risks and decide if they are happy with the launch vehicle.

      Nobody was out there demanding stacks of paper and testing from the Wright brothers when they experimented. In retrospect their contraption was highly unstable and unsafe. Same should apply for launch system developments. Sure, stuff will blow up, and people will die. People who understood the risks and knew exactly what they were doing. If they run out of people who are willing to hop onboard, they know they must spend time and money on the safety. Today, I doubt they'll have many issues as long as the (test)pilots are involved in the process and know how the tincan they are hopping into ticks.

      No need to bog it all down with 100M$s of paperwork and extra safety tests and checks that really won't improve safety. The law of diminishing returns applies - sure, you want to test and make sure the damn thing works, but beyond certain point extra testing and checking is not going to change the safety much - only the pricetag will go up, see NASA :)

    2. Re:Hmm by acidrain · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Sure, stuff will blow up, and people will die.

      Cute. It isn't that we can't find people who will take the risks, it's our safety obsessive culture that cannot tolerate your suggestion. Sure the money would be far better spent on foreign aid, in terms of lives per dollar, but public sentiment isn't rational. And NASA depends on public sentiment for it's cash, not the delivery of a product.

      --
      -- http://thegirlorthecar.com funny dating game for guys
    3. Re:Hmm by Jarnis · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Which is why we need private enterprises taking the initiative.

      Business, hiring qualified test pilots to do stuff they are supposed to be doing. Everyone doing it can compare their paycheck to their job description and choose if the want to ride the experimental thingy.

      Yes, I can imagine congressional hearings and 'oversight' destroying the whole thing after a crew exits stage left in a fireball. That means US has a problem, and such business should relocate elsewhere...

      Odd that nobody seems to raise holy hell over dead military test pilots who have over the years died while testing military hardware. Nobody ever hears of them. People also seem to shrug off accidents during pilot training and military exercises. How is this any different from space exploration? It isn't. Space = risky business, where people can die. Live with it.

      I know I'd love to go up there like just about everyone else. I also know that today's hardware for doing so is somewhat unreliable and 'prototype' in many ways, so I'd currently choose not to take the ride. I could take a zero-g ride on a vomit comet (airplanes are petty mature), but betatesting a rocket is not my idea of a fun occupation. At the same time I'm quite sure you'd find immensely qualified takers for the job...

    4. Re:Hmm by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are a lot of fallacies in this post. Lets go down the list:

      Actually, considering what Scaled Composites has done so far

      Scaled has done almost nothing in terms of sending a craft to orbit.

      Of course it would not include funds for running a huge NASA paperpusher army

      NASA's "paperpushing" regulations are largely due to the private companies trying to take advantage of them. Trust me, I used to work for one company that did - Rockwell-Collins. They had a Space Shuttle contract, and started charging all of their other projects that were low on budget to the shuttle contract, then simply claimed that the project was running overbudget. Eventually they were caught and smacked down with fines and regulatory penalties, but far down the line.

      The regulations are designed to make sure that the net result is A) what they asked for, B) safety corners haven't been cut, and C) . Can they be improved? You bet. Have they been improved already? You bet (as much as O'Keefe has done wrong, most will agree that he made NASA regulations a lot easier to deal with).

      Every astronaut can themselves consider the risks and decide if they are happy with the launch vehicle.

      I'll agree with that one.

      Nobody was out there demanding stacks of paper and testing from the Wright brothers when they experimented.

      Experimented on themselves. When they wanted to sell their airplane to the military, the military put it through the works.

      In retrospect their contraption was highly unstable and unsafe.

      Unstable? Yes. Unsafe? Hardly. Early airplanes flew so low and so slow that even when you crashed, it was rarely a fatal event. The first fatality wasn't until 1908, despite several hundred (yes, hundred) teams around the world building their own airplanes in that time, many with dubious methods. If I recall the number correctly, the first cross-country flight attempt in order to win a cup involved about three dozen crashes *by the same contender*, who each time patched his airplane up and took off again. Even with all of the advances in speed (and increases in flying altitude), and with far more rugged terrain, of the dozen crashes in the first attempt to fly around the world in 1924, none were fatal. The first fatal commercial flight wasn't until two planes in (late 1920s, early 1930s? Don't recall the exact date) collided over the English Channel. I could keep going, but I think you get the picture. Early amateur airplanes were nothing like amateur rockets - their failure modes were far, far more gentle.

      No need to bog it all down with 100M$s of paperwork and extra safety tests and checks that really won't improve safety.

      You better believe that all of those "extra safety tests" increase safety. Take a look at the history of any rocket development program's tests. Often, you won't find burnthrough fuel/oxidizer leak, or other potentially fatal complication until you've mounted everything on the launch pad to each other and are doing your 20th or so static firing of the engines.

      The law of diminishing returns applies - sure, you want to test and make sure the damn thing works, but beyond certain point extra testing and checking is not going to change the safety much

      Quite true. But look at all of the public outcry (and even outcry on Slashdot) when a manned spacecraft fails. They have reasons other than pure logic to take into account: public reaction. If t-space wants to step into the public limelight as such, they better be prepared to take that on as well.

      --
      I'm you from the future! We have to finish our time machine before the Angels of Destruction find the portal!
  4. Hmmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    Haven't all the low-cost shuttle replacements so far, once they started trying to build them, turned into high-cost engineering boondoggles that were never finished?

    Come to think of it, wasn't the Space Shuttle itself a low-cost replacement for what came before that, once they started to build them, turned into high-cost engineering boondoggles that were never totally finished?

    I mean... just checking.

  5. Why not? by mmc · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why not just give them US$400M? Northrup and the others will spend that kind of money just thinking about it all - then at least they'll have two options at the end of it!

  6. Cost by ArbiterOne · · Score: 5, Insightful

    400 million? It costs 2 billion (taxpayer) dollars to build ONE stealth bomber. One.
    This is cheap.
    If we can get back into space for 400 million, call it a bargain and GO!

    1. Re:Cost by Vo0k · · Score: 4, Funny

      If we can get back into space for 400 million, call it a bargain, secretly poison 90% of the military decision makers and GO!
      Otherwise, they will say "Going into space? What a waste of money! That's almost 1/5 of a stealth bomber! No way!"

      --
      Anagram("United States of America") == "Dine out, taste a Mac, fries"
    2. Re:Cost by FleaPlus · · Score: 4, Informative

      do you have a refrence, or did you pull that out of your mother's peed-in-vagina?

      Assuming you're referring to the stealth bomber:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-2_Spirit

      The B-2 is the most expensive plane built to date, costing approximately $2.2 billion USD per plane. [1] (http://www.fas.org/man/gao/gao94217.htm) Some writers have suggested that the huge program cost may actually include costs for other black projects that remain classified. The high per-unit cost may also be partially explained by the small number of planes produced coupled with a large research overhead in the B-2 program (see below).

  7. Space Exploration by zoloback · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Space exploration suffers from the lack of investment coming from major industries worldwide.
    The times when a whole country like the US started a program to put a man on the moon are long since past, now, it's up to the corporations to take over, but they have nothing to gain from this except for the publicity and the somewhat useless benefits of zero-gravity research (don't get me wrong, i think z-g research is important, but the benefits are seldom).
    What would happen if there was a legislation that allowed a company to claim a part of another planet, provided that (1) they can get there first and (2), they actively use it for a purpose (like mining, among many others). Such legislation would surely have to have many different conditions and establish a common ground for all corporations in the world, and i cannot see the entire universe of implications, but i can't stop thinking that this would push space exploration projects and would put us on other planets.
    Now, whether we should be destroying other planets aside from "ours", that's an entirely different matter...

    --
    The future will take care of itself.. It has in the past
  8. Good Old Boys by StratoChief66 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What about when the backers are brought before Dubya and he asks them how much of the 400 million initial and 20 million per launch goes to helping the good old boys and the backers look at each other and groan? I've never been accused of having much faith in the US administration but I just figure the men in charge of our dear sweet US of A will just say thank you for the fine offer but we've already got a team on the problem. I've never seem the government interest peaked by cost savings unless that savings goes to their friends/screws the general public or both of the above.

    --
    Frylock: "We should have cloned twenties, Jackson wouldn't have given a fuck."
  9. The future by promantek · · Score: 5, Funny

    Trinity: what do you need?

    Neo: estes rockets. lots of estes rockets. and big rubber bands.

    Trinity: nobody has ever tried anything like this before.

    Neo: that's why it's going to work.

  10. Cheap space travel... by The+Jabberwock · · Score: 5, Funny

    ...was mastered long ago by the Chinese official, Wan Hu. He clearly has prior art.

  11. Re:Can someone explain to me... by Vo0k · · Score: 5, Informative

    The shuttle itself, being reusable, weights so much that putting it in orbit costs a fortune. Normally, in case of rockets like Soyuz, maybe 1% of the original mass is put in the orbit, a tiny, light reentry device, maybe some payload. In case of the shuttle we need to lift a huge, ultra-heavy vehicle into orbit, it requires vastly more fuel. The hydrogen fuel tank is not reusable. Reworking the first-degree rockets is expensive. Because of added mass, extra material properties must be taken into consideration. It's cheaper to send 5 missions, 5-ton each, than one 25-ton one, but you can't take the shuttle apart and launch it in pieces. What originally was thought to be cheaper, seems to be a failed idea.

    --
    Anagram("United States of America") == "Dine out, taste a Mac, fries"
  12. Russia's Kliper makes this project meaningless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The russian Clipper (Kliper) lifting body space capsule is already being built. There is no need for the yankee to reinvent the wheel.

    http://www.russianspaceweb.com/kliper.html

    By the way, air launch is one of the most dangerous methods. In-flight collision is invariably fatal. Remember the drone that killed the SR-71 motherplane? The idea is silly.