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Technology Paradise Lost
The dust cover blurb summarizes Keller's position: "...American corporations let IT grow until it reached one half of all corporate capital spending by the year 2000. Now, chastened by their spending failures, IT managers are converging on a new consensus: to exploit IT competitively they must use their smarts over big money. ... Counterintuitively, companies that spend less in order to get more from information technology will likely be the big winners." That's quite a claim, and a thorough reading of the book finds that Keller only supports half of that thesis.
The thought is reiterated early in the book: "...companies can move ahead over the next few years without large increases in their IT budgets. The only thing a company needs is a different perspective." (page xii). That prescription sounds suspiciously similar to the oversimplistic advice found in positive thinking self-help books. Keller does not yet make explicit what the different perspective will do for business. Perhaps it should be taken at face value, in that it will allow companies to move ahead without increasing their IT budgets. But is continued progress without budget increases such a massive gain? More significantly, how does that address the larger issues of failed IT projects, to which he alludes earlier? In my opinion, that issue is of much greater consequence.
Keller correctly points to some of the reasons why the heady e-commerce binges are not about to return: increasing scrutiny of IT budgets, greater demand for return on investment (ROI), cheaper and simpler solutions, offshoring of software development, lower wages to American programmers, abandonment of failing projects, Internet-based architecture, and adoption of open source software (OSS), such as Linux. Addressing these changes at a more strategic level, Keller notes that, "After years of questionable returns, cost overruns, and increased complexity, companies are pushing financial rigor to IT groups." (page 6).
The book's first seven chapters discuss the primary factors in leading to reduced IT expenditures, at least within the U.S. business community. But the last four chapters go over previous ground, with more variations on the theme of reduced IT spending, interspersed with several examples from various corporations. The reader may get the sense that not much new information or recommendations are being offered, but instead that these four chapters are serving as filler, to beef up the size of the book. Otherwise, it would be more obvious that the book's usable contents could be boiled down into one meaty article.
Keller's primary thesis, that American IT could in the future produce more returns for less investment, has two primary components. The near-term and likely long-term trend for declining corporate spending on IT, is well established in his book. In fact, one could argue that reduced IT spending is not something that American companies will adopt by choice, but instead will be forced upon them due to deflationary pressures, increased costs for natural resources, and declining ability to pass along cost increases to U.S. consumers falling further behind financially. But the flip side of his thesis, that companies will get even more results despite spending less money, is not nearly as well substantiated. Not a single one of the chapters in the book is devoted to demonstrating that this is happening, or will happen. Companies may be able to maintain current levels of service despite reduced funding; but greater results per dollar invested (i.e., efficiency) does not imply greater results on an absolute basis. As such, Keller's big claim noted earlier, is only half fulfilled.
The critical questions -- concerning the proper role and funding of IT -- are presented in the book couched in the language used by high-level business managers, who speak in vague terms about "technology" and "infrastructure," and yet have little or no real understanding of how it truly works, having spent their earlier years pursuing MBAs rather than programming computers. It could be argued that such general terminology must necessarily be used when discussing information technology among business managers. That may be true, but it does not lessen the dangers of fuzzy thinking and overly broad conclusions found in Keller's book and in the typical articles discussing IT purpose, strategy, and utilization. In particular, such excessively broad strokes, in my experience, not only mask the ignorance of the IT manager demanding miracles from their staff, but invariably increases the odds that upper management will be seduced by the handwaving consulting firms -- and thus fall prey to the mistakes delineated by Keller.
Of all the inapt analogies in the book, its title is perhaps the most egregious. Alluding to John Milton's famous narrative poem, "technology paradise lost" implies that there was a time when IT resource usage was idyllic, if not perfect. Yet by Keller's own account, the misspending and failed projects, followed by financial discipline imposed by the outside world, are anything but heaven-sent. One cannot lose what has never been found.
Weighing in at 243 pages, Technology Paradise Lost is a quicker read than many other business books. Part of that is due to the unfortunate repetition of a few core ideas. Fortunately, the book has just enough tables, charts, and breakouts, to add some visual variety to the text.
The book benefits from the author's clear writing style, no doubt honed from over two decades of creating articles, documents, and presentations intended for business managers. Keller does a solid job of utilizing real world statistics and examples to back up his assessments.
Despite the repetition, sloppy analogies, and business-speak generality, Technology Paradise Lost offers a valid discussion of changes currently being experienced by the American IT industry as it grudgingly recovers from the Internet boom and bust. The book may be of value to IT managers who, for whatever reason, are ignorant of the obvious transformations that are taking place. Yet, any IT industry participant who devotes even a modicum of time to monitoring the latest developments and trends, should be well aware of IT budget trimming, offshoring, open source software, and other cost-saving methods. Otherwise, to be so out of touch with reality would be inexcusable. On the other hand, that was one of the primary symptoms before and during the widespread dot-com insanity, and could easily account for any beliefs in its imminent return.
Michael J. Ross is a freelance writer, computer consultant, and the editor of PristinePlanet.com's free newsletter." You can purchase Technology Paradise Lost from bn.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.
Technology Paradise FOUND
...we'll see the return of really good Superbowl commercials!
Paleotechnologist and connoisseur of pretty shiny things.
when they used to do the predictions with an envelope in their hand turban on their heads... Oh, wait..
Faith: n. -- That human impulse that drives them to steal appliances when the power goes out
If it's not in verse it sucks.
"...Counterintuitively, companies that spend less in order to get more from information technology will likely be the big winners."
I predict MS won't exist in 5 years!
Book Reviews: Automobile Paradise Lost
Posted by timothy on 01:12 PM -- Thursday May 19 1935
from the see-ya-suckers dept.
Michael J. Ross writes "For veterans of the automobile (CAR) industry, the late 1920s was a remarkable time. The "stock-market bubble" expanded, the model-Ts rolled off the assembly line, and the automaker stocks soared. But now that the bubble has deflated and the automobile party has wound down, U.S. vehicle assembly lines are struggling with reduced budgets. Yet apparently many believe that the sector will regain its past glory and blistering growth rates. According to experienced automobile consultant Erik Keller, it's not going to happen. He presents his case in Automobile Paradise Lost, published by Manning Publications, whose user group representative kindly provided me with a copy of the book for review." Read on for the rest of Ross's review.
(IGHEATA) ((I'm Glad He Explained All Those Abbreviations))
"When they invent bitch slaps that can go through a monitor you better f'ing duck" --deft (253558)
Sorry, but can someone help me?
... will likely be the big winners."
I'm only a web developer, so I'm not the sharpest tool in the box.
I never realised that;
"companies that spend less in order to get more
This has to be some business related thing that us in the web industry never realised. Can someone enlighten me? Perhaps their are a few BS grades reading this post?
in the long run, we're all dead anyway.
No one seems to care that the traitorous, neoliberal politicians sold our geek jobs out to H1Bs and to outsourced 3rd world labor. I say indict, try, and convict for treason (in a court of law) all the politicians who sold us out, along with the CEOs who did the same, and then sentence them to death and execute them in the electric chair, as all traitors should be executed, by rule of law, and then we can get America back on track.
eat shiat and bark at the moon
No, I think he was actually recommending that you ingest lead.
If your house is old enough, you can ingest your lead in convenient chip form.
^_^
____
~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey
When they were the only game in town (basically) we didnt' know any better. but since linux has matured, there is NO excuss for people (IT) to not create the next big thing..
i wasn't part of the 'dot-coN' boom..directly, but i was involved (personally, on my own) in making a software program which was a niche for the automoble industry. i guess because so much $ was going for crap and fraudulant stuff then (around 1997) i could not get any funds to market or improve my code (it needed to taken from dos and put into windoze or linux).
even tho i did EVERYTHING right (had a business plan, put my own money and time into the project, had a product fully-functioning, and had actually paying customers and prospects for my creation) the bastard banks and vc's just laughted at me. i guess they thought having something 'legit' was rediculous.
anywaze, this didn't daunt me in thinking about and creating other projects that would be easier for me to 'sell' on my own, or with less help/money.
and more importantly.. it did not keep me from enjoying the joy & wonder of those 'early' InterNet experiences... you know, when we 'met that special' someone in cyberspace...and..and... had our heart broken by them :(
well, those thoughts and the ones like when I (we), for the first time, downloaded, installed, read the license agreement (not) and got RealPlayer working on my 486 sx 25 mhz with 8 megs!!
or the fulfillment, when i found and installed B32 for windoze 3.1 (you remember, the little patch/prog that aloud us to run 32 bit windoze programs (sorta ;)..
or, remember:'Pc Speaker' program--- u remember, the program for 'tight-wades' like me that refused to put soundcards in their computers.... yearrrsss after they came out! It aloud you to play basically any & all audio through your little pc's speaker!
ahhhhnd the first time we got to dL our first cd of our favorite rock star in less than an hour!
well, just like 'those good ol daze', i believe (and try and work at) creating one of those exciting ideas. many of the old ideas need to be 're-dun' as '*The People Of World* wait... for someone(s) to do what the US government (shoulda, coulda, woulda), in putting down that great 'Technological Imeding Monster'---- m$. :)
I will gladly loose all of life's battles.. in order to win the war..