Slashdot Mirror
Revolution May Launch Last
Nintendo President Satoru Iwata has publicly stated that the Revolution may be the last next-gen console to market. From the article: "Until today, Nintendo has said only that the Revolution will be released in 2006 in North America, without specifying any date. Iwata's comments indicate that the console could appear after the launch of Sony's PlayStation 3, which is currently slated for a spring 2006 launch in the US. Microsoft's Xbox 360 will arrive on store shelves during the 2005 holiday season worldwide."
Well, you have to keep in mind that Nintendo sells a huge portion of their system in Japan, who don't have such legislation forcing the move yet. Also, there have been rumblings that the date for digital broadcasing may be pushed back to 2008. The HDTV resolution would have been nice in the Revolution, but it's not a necessity. They also have not said it isn't capable of HD altogether either. They may support lower end HD like 720p, but they certainly won't be requiring it from developers like Xbox360 is. Then again...if enough people complain Nintendo may change their mind at the last minute as well. It all depends on how cheaply they can build their hardware and still be able to sell it at a decent price.
"A truly wise man realizes he knows nothing."
This isn't really a surprise. I don't think anyone would argue that Nintendo is now definitely locked into the runner-up position in the race for dominance in the home video game console market, with Sony and Microsoft going toe-to-toe for the title of top dog. It seems to me that Nintendo has decided to adopt a different philosophy than the other two companies, marketing its products to a combination of children gamers and those who are interested in novel new game ideas. As a result, Nintendo has slipped into a niche market (which I like to call "the Disney of video games") that seems to be keeping it alive.
What's more interesting to me these days is that Nintendo's hand-held console dominance now stands a real chance of being usurped (by the PSP) for the first time since they entered the market with the original Game Boy. Others such as Sega and Atari tried but failed due to the fact that Nintendo was king of home (TV) consoles at the time, but now Nintendo is limiting itself to its more niche audience with the (comparatively gimmicky) DS and could be seriously threatened by the PSP's more broad appeal.
Despite all this, however, I predict that Nintendo will be around for quite some time (in one form or another at least). Their ability to shift gears when needed (remember how the original NES revived the dying home console market in the first place?) and to develop/market new and innovative -- if not practical and appealing -- ideas will assure them some kind of presence for the forseeable future.
Arguing about vi versus Emacs is like arguing whether it's better to make fire by rubbing sticks or banging rocks.
First off, the question of high definition support is entirely beside the point. I personally would love to play Mario and Zelda in glorious high definition, but if you honestly think it's going to contribute to Nintendo's "failure" next generation, you need to get a clue. First off, the analog shut out won't be in 2006, it most likely won't even be in 2007, according to the FCC itself. They won't even do the analog shutout until at least 85% of household TVs can receive all digital broadcasts, which some estimate could be another 20 years. Realistically we're not looking at switching over to all digital broadcasts until 2010-2015, which falls squarely into the realm of "the generation after next". Secondly, now that we've established that Nintendo isn't somehow cutting off all their customers, we can move on to the other flaw in your argument- high definition video was never going to be a selling point of the Revolution anyway, it's *not* a system like the Xbox 360 or PS3. Whether the Revolution succeeds or fails will be based entirely on its supposedly mind blowing new concept, *not* what resolution it outputs in, it was never going to figure into a customer's decision to purchase it. Hell, the DS (unfortunately) outputs in a drastically lower resolution than the PSP and is currently stomping it worldwide. That's proof that if you pack your system full of enough other features, stuff like resolution doesn't matter. Not to say I *condone* this practice- not at all, I think the money Nintendo is saving by foregoing high definition support will be trivial at best- but I *am* saying that this isn't as big an issue as many people are making it out to be. Now that we have that garbage out of the way, let's move on to the real issue at hand. I'm going to explain exactly why I don't think the Revolution will fail at all. E3 was a very revealing show this year; not literally, in the sense that the PS3 and Xbox 360 were physically unveiled, but in the sense that know exactly where all 3 major competitors are heading next generation. Sony and Microsoft are at each other's throats, they're going to fight to death over the 18-24 male demographic and have designed systems that are almost identical. Both companies will be pouring millions upon millions of dollars to edge out the other and it's going to end up being a stalemate, mainly because Sony has a much larger user base and Microsoft has a much larger bank account. Nintendo, however, is taking an entirely different approach. I've come to realize now that the DS was more or less a field test for that they're doing with the Revolution- it's a piece of electronics that introduces something completely new and innovative which offers the possibility for radically different games and is appealing to people who have never even had a casual interest in gaming. In an interview, the head of Nintendo's European division commented that, despite everyone's expectations (including mine), the DS is *not* eating into the sales of the GBA, and that's because it's attracting a different type of gamer for the most part. Nintendo hopes to replicate this phenomenon on a much larger scale with the Revolution- it is going to be a system that introduces an entirely new way to play games, and that is going to attract brand new gamers. While Sony and Microsoft duke it out over the established gaming public, which, admittedly, is very large, Nintendo is going after the vast untapped *sea* of potential customers that are the non-gamers, and they're doing this right under Sony and Microsoft's noses. I think Nintendo has finally realized that they simply can't compete on a marketing level with Sony and Microsoft- they don't have the vehemence, they don't have the sheer will, and they certainly don't have the talent for it. So instead of trying to wrestle customers away from their deeper-pocketed competitors, they're going down an entirely different route and making brand new customers. It won't be an overnight thing, but their army of converted gamers will grow and grow to the point where Nintendo will
First and foremost, that the PS3 will launch in Spring 2006. The PSP was supposed to launch worldwide at the end of 2004. Ask our European friends how accurate Sony's launch forcasts are.
The PS3's GPU isnt finished yet. The first Cell prototype was unveiled in March, and it wasn't even the version that will be used in the PS3. I have not heard if that is finished yet.
No one knows how far along the Revolution is. Some people take a lack of news to mean that it is behind, but they said the same thing about the DS before it beat the PSP into every territory.
Wait and see. Nintendo will likely wait for 3 things: the production capacity to meet demand, launch titles to sell the machine, and the infrastructure for their online network. The Revolution will launch when they have those three things or November 2006, whichever comes first.
That said, I think it's almost swinging too far in the opposite direction. It's gotten to the point to where Iwata's statements stop sounding like "refreshing honesty" and go into downright "negative". Let's review the the more notable PR coming from nintendo
- Revolution wont be as powerful as 360 or PS3, but it will be *different*
- Revolution will fail if the games dont exploit how *different* it is.
- Aaaah!! The gaming industry is on the verge of collapse!!
- Third parties may not "get it", and may shy away from the platform because, well, it's just so *different*.
- We're not ready to show the Revolution at E3...
- The controller's not quite finished yet.. but trust us, but we've shown some sketches to some third parties and they liked it.
- No HD support. You don't need it.
- Will probably launch after 360 and and PS3.
Of course, I'm being tonue-in-cheek, and I'm ignoring the "teaser" press releases that do sound interesting (online play, full nintendo library, yadda yadda), but it largely seems as though anything you read about Revolution isn't something you'd necessarily want to tell the hole world about. I mean, sure, be honest and everything, that's great. But it's one thing to let it slip in an interview that the Revolution will not have HD, but quite another to go to the media screaming "HEY GUYS!!! THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT HAVE HD!!! TELL YOUR FRIENDS!!"It's like Nintendo has adopted a sort of devil-may-care, go-buy-a-revolution-but-if-you-dont-oh-well strategy that I don't quite understand.
Beyond Nintendo... I'm getting damn tired of all the press releases from the Big Three in general. I've never seen so many press releases preceding an actual picture of an actual game running on actual hardware (not some tech demo on a dual-cpu uberPC/Mac tricked out with an to-be-released video card). This is even worse than the last wave of consoles. Put up or shut up for cryin out loud!
Except for their original Nes and Gameboy.
-Super Nes. After the Turbo Graf 16 and Genesis had been released.
-Nintendo 64. Much delayed, released after Saturn and Playstation.
-Gamecube. Released after PS2 and almost at the same time than Xbox
So, when Iwata originally announced that Revolution would be released at least at the same time than PS3, I was happy. Now I see that nothing has changed at Nintendo since the change of CEOs.
I know its supposed to have this cool controller, but beyond that what does the revolutoin have going for it? I love gamecube and my gameboy advanced, but what they should do is see what Microsoft will put in the Xbox, and match it or exceed it...since they are both using the same processor type (powerpc) and graphic card company. Or they should launch the system at a much lower price, like 150, not a price like the budget dreamcast price like of 200 versus 300 for a full featured system.
However, I am eager to see their new controller, Nintendo brought both the rumble pack an analogue stick to consoles, Playstation and Sega Saturn both did not have analog controls until after the Nintendo 64 had laucned, nintendo is like the apple of the console business and its to early to count them out. Lets face it, the dual analog sticks have their limitations, I am hoping they create some radical interface that can beat the mouse and keyboard for strategy games and first person shooter (could happen) while keeping all the advantages console controls have for action games.