Slashdot Mirror


Analyst Says Two 360 Versions At Launch

An analyst with Piper Jaffray believes that there will be two Xbox 360 skus at launch, reports GameDailyBiz. From the article: "Microsoft knows $299 is important...They know that historically that's been the launch sweet spot, but they also don't want to take such large hardware losses this time. Of the 1 million units Microsoft is expected to have available at launch, I expect 80% of them will probably be the more expensive SKU, because that's what early adopters are going to want."

14 of 81 comments (clear)

  1. What's the difference? by alvinrod · · Score: 4, Interesting
    We've already got a good handle on what we'll get with the $299 model, but what extras should we expect in a $350 or $399 model?

    The best I can guess is that a $350 model would have a larger HD, extra controler, and possibly some type of memory card for transporting saved games. I see this as rather pointless since you could buy an extra controler for around $30 tops or get a cheap 3rd party controller for less. I don't know the initial size of the Xbox 360 HD but I've heard 20 GB as an expected starting point. But why not just spend $100 on a nice 200 GB HD and put it in yourself. I'm sure that people will figure out how to hack or mod the box to get it to accept one that large.

    The $399 model would almost need to have a game bundled in with it along with the other stuff. The only problem I see is that not everyone will want the game that comes with it. People will just buy the $299 version and pick whatever game they want for themselves.

    "Of the 1 million units Microsoft is expected to have available at launch, I expect 80% of them will probably be the more expensive SKU, because that's what early adopters are going to want."

    I don't know if I can agree with that. Unless Microsoft doesn't give users a choice, I'd bet most would go with the $299 model. At least that's what I'd be going with. I can't justify the extra cost for a slightly larger HD when I'll eventually want to throw in a really big one and mod it to run Linux. Then again I'm probably not the target customer for the Xbox 360 so maybe it's just me. Either way I don't see how consumers knowingly shelling out an extra $100 ($50 possibly) for a few extras that aren't necessary.

    1. Re:What's the difference? by MindStalker · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Wireless networking perhaps, a few games, possibly a promised free upgrade to HD DVD when it comes out. Any number of things could push the price.

    2. Re:What's the difference? by badasscat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We've already got a good handle on what we'll get with the $299 model, but what extras should we expect in a $350 or $399 model?

      Including an HD-DVD drive would seem to jibe with some of their other recent comments. Having two separate versions of the console out there would ensure that no game would ever be produced on the HD-DVD format, but it would mean you'd be getting an HD-DVD player for basically $100. That's a deal I think some people might take. If they also included a larger hard drive and an extra accessory or two, I think it might even be too good to pass up.

      They've already said they'll include an HD-DVD drive at some point, and have shown no aversion at all to having multiple SKUs out there. They haven't said they'll do it at launch, but it's at least no dumber to do it at launch than it is to do it any other time.

      Unless Microsoft doesn't give users a choice, I'd bet most would go with the $299 model.

      It would depend on what's in the higher-priced model. If it's just a bunch of extra stuff I can buy separately later, then no thanks. I'm sure most people would feel that way - people hate bundles.

      But if there's an HD-DVD drive and a larger hard drive, for only $100 more, then even I - bundle-hater of all bundle-haters - would probably spring for the higher-end model. But I doubt that's the way it's going to go down. It's probably just going to be a "value pack" with a couple of over-priced accessories.

      I do think the "80%" number is kind of out there, unless this analyst knows something we don't. My gut feeling is he's confusing the fact that these early adopters are usually forced to spend more money than they want to with the desire to spend more money than they need to. They are not the same thing. I think 99% of early adopters would love to pay less than they do for the products they buy, it's just that they never have that choice. If MS gives them that choice, most of them will opt for the cheaper model until it's sold out. (And it seems reasonable to expect them to sell out fast, leaving the appearance that there are two models on the market and that MS is trying to please everyone, but in fact there is only in practical terms one model out there and it's $400.)

    3. Re:What's the difference? by Chosen+Reject · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Not that it matters since the article is pure speculation anyway, but I find it amusing that you take their speculation, add some of your own conjecture, then you talk of how stupid those moves (that you made up) would be, and thus conclude that either the original speculation or MS is dumb.

      --
      Stop Global Warming!
      Just say no to irreversible processes!
  2. Analyst knows nothing, so makes shit up. by iainl · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I've seen no evidence for 2 SKUs, and certainly nothing to indicate that Microsoft would release a version without a hard drive, when you need one to run games at all.

    His entire argument appears to be based on "the hardware is expensive, so Microsoft is going to have to sell it at $399". Did he not notice how it is no more expensive than the XBox they launched last time at $299?

    --
    "I Know You Are But What Am I?"
  3. backfire... by zxnos · · Score: 2, Insightful

    parents are who dont know are going to pick up the cheaper one, thinking that store just has a better price. then feel ripped off once they find out they could have bought the extras at once - for 100$ cheaper at the outset.

    --
    always mosh clockwise
  4. Simple by BlackCobra43 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Most customers will also purchase one game - bringing the total up to 360.

    --
    I never spellcheck and I freely admit it. Save your karma for more worthwhile "lol erorrs" replies
  5. For those not in the know (like me) by WankersRevenge · · Score: 4, Informative

    From Wikipedia: SKU

    A Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) is an identifier used for management of an inventory.

    The acronym SKU is used almost exclusively when talking about this concept. Furthermore, it's pronounced as a word, rather than three letters, as if you were saying the English work skew.

    Merchants assign SKUs to every product they sell (as opposed to an EAN which is assigned by the manufacturer). This SKU is then used to order, locate and manage the inventory of a product. Each product and variant of a product has a different SKU, for example different flavours or models of product have independent SKUs.

  6. R.O.B. inside! by hotgigs · · Score: 2, Funny

    Maybe this will come with that Robot that the NES had at launch! That launch had two different packages... basic system with SuperMario and then the upgraded package with R.O.B. the robot, Light Gun and Duck Hunt and another game. My guess is an upgraded Hard Drive and 1 year of Xbox Live service and possibly a game or controller.

    --
    I'm not clever enough for a sig...
  7. 2SKUs == 1 Big Mistake by blueZhift · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It would be a big mistake for MS to launch the 360 with multiple versions. I don't think that there has ever been a successful console that launched with more than one version/price point. Now if they want to launch with different colored models, that's fine, but if they start monkeying around with the inclusion of the HD, then they'll be giving the game back to Sony. Honestly, the HD and Xbox Live are the Xbox's only advantages over the Playstation 2. Look at how poorly the PS2 HD add-on fared, and the promises of support that Sony itself broke. If the HD is not standard in all 360s, then it will fail as well, putting 360 on the same level as the PS3.

    In the console world, the launch is a one shot deal. Whatever comes out at launch is what is going to be supported. Enhancements and redesigns may come later in the console's life, but that base model that rolled out on day one is the one that gets full support by developers. Splitting the market on day one would be very foolish.

    1. Re:2SKUs == 1 Big Mistake by skepticult · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I don't think that there has ever been a successful console that launched with more than one version/price point.

      Yes. The NES was a dismal failure, as everyone knows. It failed so quickly that nobody has even heard of it. Here's a link to wikipedia detailing it's dismal fall into obscurity.

    2. Re:2SKUs == 1 Big Mistake by skepticult · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yes. There wasn't a pack that contained a robot, a light gun, and an extra controller. I didn't know anybody who had it, and in fact, have never even seen a picture of it.

      I'm so stupid!

  8. Analysts "opinions" are just wild guesses by Man+In+Black · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Why do we keep seeing these news stories that just turn out to be an opinion from someone who has nothing to do with what's actually going on? Stuff like this should only really count as "news" if it's coming out of the mouth of someone at Microsoft.

    "many conversations with Microsoft" aside, his guesses are probably no better than mine.

    --
    -"One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men. No machine can do the work of one extraordinary man." -EH
  9. Forget The Next Generation... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Hey, Microsoft! Where's the $100 XBox? Some of us "late adaptors" would like a piece of the action.