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Firefox Share Slipped in July for the First Time

prostoalex writes "Between June and July of this year, Firefox lost 0.64% of the users, while Microsoft IE gained the same amount, leaving other browsers at their usual zero point something share. Could recent security problems and lack of stability, reported by some users, lead to the decline of the browser that just passed 80 million downloads?" I think the other thing to remember is that while ~8% seems a lot, there's a still a huge amount of ground to cover -- and a number change like this is statistical noise. I should point out that my issue with noise isn't the absolute numbers; it's the somewhat inadequate measurements tools for this.

25 of 557 comments (clear)

  1. New computer purchases? by darylb · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Could be that it's the time of year for lots of people to buy new computers (back to school, lots of deals to be had), none of which SHIP with Firefox. And it may just take a bit of IE use to remind them why they need to get to mozilla.org after all.

    1. Re:New computer purchases? by diegocgteleline.es · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Why all this fud about "if it comes installed, everyone will use it"? Why is that everyone uses winzip and winamp, then?

      Netscape didn't lost the browser war because of not being installed by default. It helped, but that was not the main reason: Ars Technica sits down with Scott Collins from Mozilla.org:

      "Ars: You mention mistakes made by Microsoft. What do you feel are mistakes that Mozilla has made in the past?"

      One: There was a fundamental mistake made by Netscape management, twice, which cost us a release at the most inopportune time. I think we can attribute a great deal of our market share loss to this mistake that was pretty much based completely on lies from one executive, who has since left the company (and left very rich) and who was an impediment to everything that we did. He was an awful person, and it is completely on him that we missed a release. We had a "Netscape 5" that was within weeks of being ready to go, and this person said that we needed to ship something based on Gecko within 6 months instead. Every single engineer in the company told management "No, it will be two years at least before we ship something based on Gecko." Management agreed with the engineers in order to get 5.0 out.a

      Three months later they came back and said "We've changed our mind, this other executive has convinced us, except now instead of six months, you need to do it in three months." Well, you can't put 50 pounds of [crap] in a ten pound bag, it took two years. And we didn't get out a 5.0, and that cost of us everything, it was the biggest mistake ever, and I put it all on the feet of this one individual, whom I will not name.

  2. Pseudopod by Stanistani · · Score: 5, Interesting

    A few of the folks I set up with Firefox have gone back to IE because their default browser settings changed with a Windows Update, and they were not interested enough to change them back.

    Then the spyware came back...

    1. Re:Pseudopod by Iriel · · Score: 3, Interesting

      After a while, on my Win2K machine, I started to have problems similar to the ones described by the parent post actually. Besides, I could conceive that it could have been a bug consisting of a series of software conflicts after a Windows Update screwed up one small detail.

      I have had that happen several times. Not enough to consider it the norm, but I think the originating post serves a purpose to explain that there are plenty of users that hit one small point that requires effort to change something, and so they give up. Not everyone is like this and I've heard all too many tales of people teaching someone in their 80's to use Linux for everyday tasks, but that isn't the normal situation. The majority of users want something that works the way they are used to (the way it's been/IE) and when they have to think to change something, they just give up. Why bother when you can just ask your friend to clean out your spyware each month or so? I don't mean to Troll, but this is a growing trend that I see in many places.

      --
      Perfecting Discordia
      www.stevenvansickle.com
    2. Re:Pseudopod by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      I always use FF but I leave IE as my default browser. I set my personal firewall to ask before letting IE access the internet. 90% of the time I prompted to let IE access the internet, it was because of another application and not me clicking on something. I use this as a second method of blocking spyware and phone home applications as quite a few of these types of apps will call the IE rendering engine directly or use the system default browser.

  3. How? by wlan0 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I'm sure one can measure ~8% roughly, but how can you know if a browser loses .60%?

    1. Re:How? by telecsan · · Score: 2, Interesting

      but the current state of IE is that it is inferior in almost every way that matters to Firefox.


      Except one. Compliance with existing base of websites. I ran into problems with enough websites that were coded badly as to not like Firefox that I just plain switched back. When it was between one browser and 2, I chose a single browser. Put IE together with safe browsing habits, and some skill with Alt-Tab, and it is sufficient for my (admittedly non-taxing) browsing requirements.

      I've grown out of the phase where I considered the web to be an exploratory medium. It's just not safe for that anymore (both in terms of virii and in terms of content, most of what's out there I don't WANT to see). I now use the web as a productivity tool (Amazon/Ebay/Banking/News). It's no longer geeky to find some obscure web-site as it was 8-10 years ago.

  4. "New kid in town"syndrome by scsirob · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Most likely users are trying the IE7 beta to find out what's new.

    --
    To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB
  5. I tried by thc69 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Don't blame me. I recently got a die-hard IE/OE user to switch to FF/TB. He was tired of paying me my standard rates to come and clean spyware...

    --
    Procrastination -- because good things come to those who wait.
  6. firefox has gotten buggier, for me. by gruntvald · · Score: 1, Interesting

    I have started going back to IE, to my surprise because firefox regularly locks up and has to be restarted, and also starts eating the pagefile like it's going out of style.

    I assumed it was just my machine, but then saw the same behavior on two other machines.

  7. Stability Issues For Me by craznar · · Score: 1, Interesting

    I don't use Firefox because of stability issues on Windows.

    Then again - it might not be Firefox, but the end result is the same.

    --
    EMail: 0110001101100010010000000110001101110010 0110000101111010011011100110000101110010 0010111001100011011011110110
  8. Is it statistical noise? by Yahweh+Doesn't+Exist · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I don't know because the numbers you give are meaningless.

    This is why you should always give error bars for values obtained in a supposedly scientific way, then it would be obvious if it's noise or not.

    You also shouldn't give values to inappropriate levels of precision. if you're going to say share went down by 0.64% and not give an error bar, then it's reasonable to assume your error was +/- 0.005%, in which case it is NOT statistical noise.

    (I know I'm asking a lot for /. to be accurate with scientific analysis when it can't even get the basics of the English language right.)

  9. Re:The reason for the downturn. by Evro · · Score: 5, Interesting

    That would account for a decline in the rate of downloads, but not a decline in use. Maybe millions of web developers testing IE7 is lowering Firefox's share, or maybe people tried Firefox, didn't like it, and went back to whatever they'd been using.

    --
    rooooar
  10. Re:Marketshare Stabilized by ugmoe · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Why should I care what browser other people are using?

  11. Possibly due to win2k updates? by domipheus · · Score: 4, Interesting

    There were a few major win2k updates last month, and as Windows update is IE only, surely most will have had to get it from there. may account for a *tiny* amount of deviation. But hell, there is deviation in every statistic. We will jsut have to wait till next month - if it was a blip, hey, it may shoot up to 10% for August ;)

  12. Re:I'll still take Firefox over IE... by Overzeetop · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Me too, but its annoying as hell to install. The extensions are wonderful, but the last time I had to do a clean install, I lost all the extensions, and there doesn't seem to be any way to store the extensions locally - it's all "active" content. Pisses me off, 'cause I don't have mouse gestures, and don't want to go wading through mozzilla.org to find the one I'm already using.

    The extensions are one of the biggest advantages for folks with no life or no job, and one of the biggest frustrations for busy people. Firefox is like building a car from scratch everytime you intall it - You have to re-find all the extensions you liked by navagating through mounds and mounds of extensions. It's one of the things I miss about Opera...everything installs at once. Yes, I know you're stuck with the single tab-model they offer, but since I dont' really have time to "try out" a dozen different styles, I'm happier to learn to use a good one than search for hours for a really great one.

    (I have a sligtly unusual setup - two logins on a single xp install - one for work, one for play. I've set up firefox to use the same profile in the past, but it just takes to freakin long to look up the instructions and re-do all the installs. Sue me, I'm impatient. I want a "use this profile" button.)

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  13. Or, it could be bullshit by stinky+wizzleteats · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I get a fair amount of traffic on my personal web site (4gigs monthly traffic, 27,000 hits/month). As with all things, data I directly personally measure trumps any media report. It seems the more direct information I have about anything reported in the media, the more aware I am of what they get wrong, distort, or just plain lie about. While last month was certainly statistically interesting for my site, it was for another reason. For the first time ever, IE was NOT the most popular web browser used to reach my site. Firefox came in at 45%, and IE scored 43%. Firefox has been steadily gaining each month, with the gains being more and more dramatic as each month goes by.

    Is my personal web traffic representative of the Internet as a whole? Certainly not. Does it rebut the cited article? No. Is it the only information in which I have any confidence at all? Yes. My advice to you? Look at your own web logs and react accordingly, in so much as it matters to do so.

  14. Re:OMG M$ LOL by Sierpinski · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Don't be surprised when Microsoft applies for a patent on 'Tabbed Browsing'. I would bet that its at least been discussed at some point somewhere at some large round conference table.

  15. Re:Marketshare Stabilized by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Since when does "stabilize" mean "shrink"? And who modded this insightful instead of funny?

    Anyway, since I'm using Mozilla Suite and Firefox exclusively, I can fully understand anyone who abandons it - stability has been awful for me in the last half year or so, with 2-3 crashes each day. As an extra annoyance, keyboard focus handling is pretty much broken by design and sometimes parts of pages get drawn at random 1 pixel left/right/up/down positions of where they should really be, turning a whole page into a stricken out, partially expanded/contracted mess, and that's on multiple platforms (linux, irix, windows). Hopefully, those things will be fixed in 1.5 (and Seamonkey), so that the marketshare can rise again (and my frustration decline).

  16. Re:I'll still take Firefox over IE... by *SECADM · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I assume you run firefox on Windows. In my experience (YMMV) firefox crashes so often on my linux box it's not even funny. It's either some conflict with esd, some nasty flash thing that leaves such a nice dump of cores in my $HOME, or just slow degradation of performance (aka leaks).

    Who would've thought to make firefox on linux (the platform it actually dominate the market on) stable? At least in my experience IE rarely crashes on a windose box.

    --
    sure I'll have a sig.
  17. Re:Noise my ass by Retric · · Score: 2, Interesting

    With your parent post's numbers:

    It started at 8.71%

    0.64/8.71 = A loss of ~7.3%

    So it looks like nobody knows what they are talking about.

    PS: Did not RTFA.

  18. Re:The reason for the downturn. by alnjmshntr · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I like firefox, but I don't like the browser, I like the plugins.

    --
    If I had created the world I wouldn't have messed about with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers
  19. Massive surge coming, just look by 0xABADC0DA · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If you look that the traffic for mozilla.org you see a slight downward trend during summer and a massive spike just recently in august, coinciding with the kids going back to school.

    So basically the kids using firefox at school stopped for the summer because some of them were using their parents computers that had IE. Now that the kids have gone back to school the ones that weren't using firefox are downloading it in huge numbers (probably mostly to be cool). Next set of statistics will probably show a 2% rise for firefox, imho due to this.

  20. pfffft by rbochan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    No, it looks to me like slashdot is once again getting it's "news" about OSS projects from a ^&#$^&%#^& zdnet blog.

    --
    ...Rob
    The American Dream isn't an SUV and a house in the suburbs; it's Don't Tread On Me.
  21. Re:The reason for the downturn. by poot_rootbeer · · Score: 2, Interesting

    as long as there's enough sites out there that require IE, users will switch to IE, even from "better" browsers.

    How many sites ARE there that require IE and/or fail miserably in Firefox, though? I keep seeing people cite this as a major factor in IE's retention of so much browser market share, and yet outside of a few shameful intranet pages at work, I don't think I've encountered an IE-only page in the wild since I made the switch to Mozilla Phoenix, over two years ago.

    Has anyone compiled a list of public web sites that truly are IE-only? I'd like to know how big a problem this really is.