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Xbox 360 Launch to Face Several Hurdles
JamesO writes "Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years. "It's something we're not ready to announce yet," he said. "I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon." Relatedly JamesO writes "Microsoft is saying that anywhere up to 40 games could be released for the Xbox 360 during its launch period, but which of those will make or break the console's launch? Pro-G choose their ten most important Xbox 360 launch games. Not the ten best launch games, but the most important for the success of the Xbox 360."
The whole concept that drives consoles is that they are easy to use. You see the Xbox logo, you know you can play it. This idea has obviously degraded some with the online movement (not everyone will be able to play online), but this is taking it too far. When I buy a game system, there should be no compatibilty question. That's what my PC is for.
The average parent isn't going to know what to pick for their kid, and faced with a choice they might just turn around and pick up a console they know will be able to support any game on the system.
More experienced/older gamers might look at the inferior versions of the system as worthless, and will simply wait until the maxed out system comes down to a reasonable price. A good analogy would be with computers. The average slashdotter isn't going to go buy a celeron notebook (lets go with plain old celeron, when they sucked) when there are vastly superior Pentium M notebooks available. They will wait for the better system's price to come down. Maybe not such a great analogy, but hopefully it gets the point across.
No hard drive will seriously take away one of the advantagest the Xbox2 will have against the PS3, which also is planning on not having a hard drive. The hd comes standard on the current xbox, removing it now will only confuse the consumer base Also MS does NOT need to upgrade the optical drive at a later date to an HD DVD drive, unless the cost is as cheap a dvd drive. Why does Microsoft think that their plan of offering three to five different versions of the xbox will do anything but segment their own market is beyond me. Sony has always made on system and then figured out ways to shrink everything over a few years and then make money off of that hardware.
"Jeremy, you need to get to an internet cafe and cut and paste some appropriate sentiments about me from the world wide
I know that they haven't said much, but I've read between the lines and I can tell you everything you need to know:
"Guys, listen, the XBox 360 that you've all been waiting for . . . well . . . it's really just a PC with a graphics card that will be out of date next week." -- BillG
Evidence:
+ Unified SDK for PC and XBox game programming
+ XBox original is also a PC
+ Say no more, sir, say no more
I don't know about you, but for me that list seems HIGHLY biased to the american market. Why the hell would the rest of the world worry that much about a NFL game to justify it being the SECOND PLACE on that list??
Same goes to Perfect Dark Zero being the top game on that list... Well, I surely love FPS, as most americans and europeans. But what about the asian market? That list is way too "western world"-focused IMO. And we all know what is the whole point behind Xbox 360: take over Playstation's home market.
From article summary:
Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years.
That's several hurdles right there. The story summary didn't say anyone but Microsoft was actually putting the hurdles in front of them.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The Mega CD , the 32X , jaguar CD ...
.... By which i mean more money via add ons ,are making a fatal mistake here "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". ... well maybe one small add on you can get away with (Though nintendo were quite lucky with the N64 RAM pack , not that it didn't have a few problems itself) , change the disc format and you are nearly guaranteed to have limited success if not damage done to your market.
,they are like comfortable track suit trousers that you can slip into of a night , pig out on a massive pizza and remain calm in the knowledge you wont need to undo a button as time goes on .
We all remember how successful extensions to your console are(Though the jaguar CD was a great add on , it was expensive and the console was struggling at the time anyway ) .
MS in an attempted to create an extendable console
People like consoles because they are simple to use
They certainly don't want to waste much money on upgrades for it and to start having to worry about requirements
"I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon."
People like consoles in a One size fits all
The only things certain in war are Propaganda and Death. You can never be sure which is which though
Why buy now when later I'll be able to get an HD-DVD compatible mode. Why bother when the hard drive is being removed from the equation and will cost extra as an addon, thereby limiting developers' use of its potential, thereby removing the outstanding feature of the original Xbox.
I got to see the Xbox 360 in closed doors demos at E3 this year, and I have to say despite the ringing hype endorsement of the PS3 over a prerendered demo (Killzone) which everyone on the floor as developers could name who created it - the Xbox 360 really did blow me away technically and the games were impressive looking and desirable - especially the new EA sports iterations (not to say anything of their gameplay and the company's lack of innovation).
But this latest news really puts me off bothering to pick one up soon. I recently had a ton of games stolen and went to eBay to load up on games I lost in the theft that were out of print. When it came time to find all the titles for the Xbox, there were very, very few I even wanted to bother replacing.
The current lineup, Call of Duty 2 excepted (which looked exceptional at E3 running in a limited capacity), does nothing to make me jones for Xbox 360. It still is a box dedicated towards dumbed down PC games played on a television. For now, I'll wait and see if an HD-DVD model ever comes out. I'll pick up a PS3 and use it as my Blu-Ray player.
** http://www.nkhumanrights.or.kr/ ** Human rights in North Korea. 1 million estimated dead from starvation.
I think MS and Sony might have a tougher time than they think this time out. I hear a lot of 12-13 year olds saying "Xbox 2 is gonna be l33t!" or "I so need a PS3 when it comes out." but I spend a lot of time at a nearby game store talking to the guys that work there and from the sound of things, it's gamers that have the cash to burn on new systems that are saying things like, "The only one I know I'll get is the Revolution." and "I'm sick of all the bullshit hype."
So yeah, hey Sony and MS: fire your marketing departments and put the money towards game development. Everyone already knows that your next gen shit is coming, shut up about it and give us games that make it a worthwhile purchase.
No sig for you!!
Time and time again has shown that developers will not support addons or upgrades to a console. I don't possibly see how fragmenting your market is a good thing. The abysmal PS/2 hard drive sales should be a good indicator of how willing the public is to spend money on upgrading their console. For reference of history, look at the Sega CD, the 32X, the light gun, ROB the robot, and a whole slew of other useless failed addons. I will say that network adapters for the PS/2 have done fairly well though, but very few games actually require the hard drive, with FFXI being a notable exception. FFIX's population is about 2 million by the way. Good for a MMORPG, terrible for a blockbuster console game. How many did FFVII sell worldwide? 5? 6 million?
If you were a developer what market would you choose? The market that your game will run on the most consoles (base 360) or the market that is likely just a small fraction of the overall maximum market?
Your comparison the PC world is completely absurd in that PCs are constantly upgraded and evolving whereas the typical console is a single target that never moves. It is an awful lot easier to make a game for one console with fixed specs than the hundreds and thousands of possible PC hardware configurations. It should be no secret that most PC games these days are RTS, first person shooters, a few RPGs here and there and of course, the simulator. Not much variety to be found. A great deal of developer shops have fallen quite recently due to poor sales in the PC market. Most kids these days seem to prefer the TV versus the monitor and I hate to say it, but I would imagine that a large number of computer game players are also software pirates given the ease of downloading an ISO and mounting it with the convieniently free daemon tools, whereas on the console you have to mod the console or pay to have someone do it for you and that is really out of the grasp of a lot of people.
I don't honestly think that Microsoft is choosing a good plan here. It is better to have a unified market than one that is potentially fractured. If you make a console that much better than the original and manage to convince a foolish developer to produce games that only run on the newer console, then why bother at all when instead you could have just waited a few years and released a whole new console with a slew of upgrades? Oh wait. That is precisely what they do now.
If there were a market for upgradeable consoles, it would have surely materialized by now. I think that the average gamer cares far less about the platform and a great deal more about the actual games themselves. IF you want to win a console race you need a lot of killer apps like GTA3 and the first Xbox had about 3 triple A titles and that just isn't going to cut it.
zosxavius photography
I read through the comments here and saw a lot of very confused people saying very confused things. After reading TFA here's what I gleaned:
- Microsoft is making sure game-developers treat the HD as optional.
- Seeing as the HD is optional, those who do not want the functionality will be offered the opportunity to purchase the console at a lower price.
- Microsoft may offer an HD-DVD drive in the Xbox 360 in later revisions (SPECULATION: to drive sales in the latecomer camp who are intrigued by the added bonus of playing HD-DVD content.)
Now here's what wasn't stated, but what I believe:
- Consoles are loss leaders for the major manufacturers. It is not desireable to sell hardware repeatedly at a loss. So what? Microsoft isn't going to encourage people to re-buy something that actually costs them money. Instead they will push for software titles to work on every Xbox 360 so that the maximum number of consumers can pay them licensing fees.
- Microsoft is going to (at minimum) STROGNLY encourage all software vendors not to code to the hard drive or the HD-DVD drive (when it arrives). While such coding may occur (FFXI will almost surely require a hard drive) it will not be the norm. They want the Xbox you bought on launch day without the HD to continue to get them licensing money through your continued purchase of software (see above).
- Confusingly, while many people replace the 's' in Microsoft with a '$', they accuse the same company whose success is so obvious of being incompetent at selling things. Whatever you want to argue about Microsoft, it is hard to argue that they are bad at making money. To that end, please re-read the above two points. They will not restrict their income artificially.
- Consumers LIKE new hardware revs. How many folks bought that cute miniature PS2? Enough to show that a re-rev of hardware (with different functionality) can be accepted by users. There's also the wild success of the Gameboy Advance (and SP) to this end. Did all your peripherals work with the SP? No. How many people still 'upgraded' from the Advance to the SP? Lots! It offered a compelling reason to upgrade, without breaking backwards compatibility for what matters (the games).
My conclusion: I'll buy an Xbox 360 on launch day because my lust for a new console is high, and because I am confident that the 360 I buy will work with games released until the Xbox 1080 (or whatever). If you do not believe that games will work then you are welcome to wait it out. A lot of people I know hesitated on huying an Xbox because it was a "second class" console to them. Then they ended up buying one because it had a few compelling games that were "must play" to them. If you don't want the 360 at launch then don't buy one, but don't be too shocked if there is comeplling (to you) content released that is Xbox exclusive and you end up wanting one in the end.
(Hint: Ninja Gaiden is not Halo, Forza is not Halo, do not reply to this with smarmy comments about Halo being the only popular exclusive game for the Xbox because it isn't, unless you want the standard "anti Microsoft" Slashdot karma over being factually correct.)
you can take the road that takes you to the stars...
under the assumption that WHAT THEY HYPED was what would be in the unit
LOL!
Oh, stop, you're killing me!
Hoooo! That's a good one.
Please see the list of "Features" that Widows Longhorn, now Windows Vista was going to have at launch.
Every time they pushed back the release date, they dropped a few features.
The first claims for what Longhorn would have constituted an operating system that would trample Linux and MAC OS X into dust. Those features have dropped off one by one over the years. It's now clear that Windows Vista will be little more than XP with a few cosmetic changes and tighter security.
This is standard Microsoft behavior though. Look at all their product releases. Look at the pre-release press. Announcing Vaporware and pumped up lists of features is a common practice for them, as a way to stifle or destroy the competition.
"Live Free or Die." Don't like it? Then keep out of the USA
... and those who don't get it yet:
It only needs one game -- next-gen Madden. That alone will trump all else, sell systems in droves, and will do so worldwide (because apparently you people have chosen to ignore the fact that Madden outsells even FIFA wordlwide). Madden will drive or break the launch. If it's there, it's a hit. If it's not, there could be trouble...
You don't believe me? Wander in to a Best Buy or Gamestop right now and hang around. Watch the kids and adults my age come in. Watch them come in, not even browse, go straight for the Madden box, buy, and leave. Watch kids wander in, pick up the Madden box, struggle with trying to decide to blow their hard-earned cash on it when they maybe can't even afford, AND STILL PICK IT UP EVERY SINGLE TIME.
There are no more-devoted game series fans out there. They all buy largely the same game EVERY SINGLE YEAR and play it to death, and a next-gen leap will only garner even more attention and sales than normal. And believe me, EA will roll out Der Hypen Machine for it in full force, so everyone will know when Madden launches.
People call in sick to work the day they know Madden launches. Peopel rearrange life schedules aroudn Madden launching so they hae plenty of time to go buy it and then play. Yes, it's that big.
Madden alone will make or break the 360 launch. because believe me, nobody cares about Perfect Dark...
It's hard to hype an original title before launch. Street Fighter 360 makes for better press than Famu Street Brawler 360. Once the system is near the shelves and they're ready to get in-depth we should see more of the original titles.
The ______ Agenda
Oh, and in case you weren't aware, the US gaming market is much larger than that in either Japan or Europe.
CESA industry sales figures for Japanese publishers/manufacturers from last year:
Year - Software / Hardware : Total
2004 - $4.28 billion / $4.03 billion : $8.31 billion
And by region:
Year - Japan/Overseas : Total
2004 - $3.06 billion / $5.16 billion : $8.22 billion
The total North American video game market had $9.9 billion in sales over the same period.
Now, you can say that $9.9 billion in sales is more than three times $3.06 billion, but a couple things:
a) $3.06 billion is still no small chunk of change
b) That's in a country with half the population and about 1/20 the land mass (meaning distribution and marketing is much, much cheaper)
c) That's just one country, vs. Canada/US/Mexico for North American market numbers
d) $5 billion worth of Japanese software/hardware was sold overseas, meaning a large chunk of that North American market number is made up of Japanese games and systems
e) The total Japanese game industry is nearly the same size as the North American game industry in total dollar sales (in 2003, it was actually larger).
For example, the Saturn, a console made by a Japanese company, did pretty well in Japan yet tanked everywhere else. The end result of that was creating a situation where Sega ran out of money to compete.
And the same thing would have happened to Microsoft - with a successful console in the US and Europe but not Japan - if they did not have billions of dollars from their operating system business to rely on. They have lost billions on the Xbox. Part of the reason for that is approximately 33% of the sales they envisioned never materialized, because the system tanked so hard in Japan. They literally have only two of the three markets they thought they would.
I think you're underestimating the importance of Japan to the overall video game market. No system can be a financial success these days without being successful in Japan, in addition to the other markets. Japan is a huge cash cow - it is a much more profitable market than either the US or Europe, which are both nightmares of marketing and distribution for various reasons (different languages, long distances, political borders, cultures, etc.).