Tropical Storm Alpha Sets Naming Record

vekron writes "Tropical Storm Alpha formed Saturday in the Caribbean, setting the record for the most named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. This is the first time the U.S National Hurricane Center has resorted to using the Greek alphabet since it began naming tropical cyclones in 1953. The previous record of 21 named storms had stood since 1933. Alpha was the 22nd to reach tropical storm strength this year, and the season doesn't end until November 30. At 8 p.m. EDT, Alpha was 70 miles south of Santo Domingo, in the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm warnings have been posted for the entire coastline of the Dominican Republic and Haiti and for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The storm is moving northwest at about 15 mph with winds at the center of 40 mph and is expected to make landfall late Saturday or early Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is tracking this storm; it is offering updates about its development as an RSS feed."

Comments

Re:...so?

[eobanb]

IANAM (I Am Not A Meteorologist) but I do know that since we started paying attention to frequency/size of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf about 150 years ago, we've been on an approximate 50-year cycle, where every 50 years or so, the storms get greater in magnitude. In the 1950s, there were some particularly strong storms, as were there in the 1900s, such as one storm 1902 that killed about 8000 people on the Texas coast, making it one of the worst disasters in American history. Now it's 2005, so we're around that high point again.

That said, we seem to also be having a few more hurricanes and tropical storms than usual, although I'd like to think this is more of just a coincidence than related to the magnitude cycle, although I wouldn't rule out that it could have something to do with global warming.

I'm really not completely sure why the 50-year magnitude cycle occurs, but it's well-documented.

Frequency vs. severity

[Elrac]

I heard a news commentary last night that seemed reasonably well informed to me. They said that the frequency of tropical storms (i.e. the reason they're running out of names at the moment) varies in a natural cycle which is probably not noticeably affected by temperature. On the other hand, the severity of the storms is directly a function of their energy, which they get from warm tropical water, which is directly affected by temperature.

If this is true and if global temperatures are affected by CO2 emissions, then human activity is probably causing these storms to be (on the average) more severe.

While I feel sympathy for the poor bastards suffering in NOLA and elsewhere, I feel it's a good thing that Katrina is making Americans sit up and think about possible connections between environmental cause and meteorological effect. It's human nature to tend not to think much about things that don't affect one personally. I wonder how GWB's stance on emissions would be affected if a storm were to dismantle his ranch in Crawford?

Re:Frequency vs. severity

[Just Some Guy]

I wonder how GWB's stance on emissions would be affected if a storm were to dismantle his ranch in Crawford?

Since Crawford is about 250 miles inland, if circumstances were such that a hurricane powerful enough to level it came about, then he'd be too busy dying with the rest of the world to have time to think about it. Same reason I don't have flood insurance on my house: if I ever actually needed it, I'd be too busy building an ark to care.

Re:A bit off-topic

[eobanb]

See, except, they DO name storms with male names. Remember Hurricane Andrew? The reason they went to the Greek alphabet was that they name the storms in alphabetical order, and once they get to the end of the alphabet, you COULD start with A again, but you wouldn't know (just from the name, at least) whether that storm occurred at the beginning or the end of the hurricane season.

Re:A bit off-topic

[Motherfucking Shit]

Just adding MALE names would give you atleast 20 more easy names. Why are storm names female? I suppose it comes from the old days when only men worked as sailors , and thus named everything female.

You might have heard of hurricanes Charley, Dennis, Frederick, or Hugo; the name pool isn't restricted to female names. Names for named tropical storms in the Atlantic are pulled from a list which rotates every six years, and the combined series of six lists contains an equal number of male and female names.

More information is available at NASA's Hurricane Names page.

Re:...so?

[Anonymous Coward]

If you look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_E nergy you will see that the total energy of this years storms is large but not record breaking. Once Wilma is accounted for the ACE should be over 200, possibly over 205. It would take another two moderately large hurricanes to drive us over the record set in 1950,

Re:...so?

[BRock97]

Actually, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. So, there is only five weeks left, not two months. Also, less in magnitude is hard to say since Wilma set a record for the lowest pressure reading ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane at 882mb (record lowest world wide belongs to Typhoon Tip in the northwest Pacific at 870mb). Wilma also set a record as the fastest growing. Finally, quite a few tropical storms were named that didn't make hurricane status (9, I believe) and 5 hurricanes were minimal category 1.

Re:...so?

[AngryNick]

INAME (I'm Not A Meteorologist Either). For those who like pictures, these links show the number of storms and their paths for each 10 year period. It's interesting to compare 1931-1940 to 1941-1950. Perhaps we are just getting started. Clipped from a great NOAA-National Hurricane Center report, The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1900 to 2000 :

• (1901-1910)
• (1911-1920)
• (1921-1930)
• (1931-1940)
• (1941-1950)
• (1951-1960)
• (1961-1970)
• (1971-1980)
• (1981-1990)
• (1991-2000)

Figures 1 through 10 show the landfalling portion of the tracks of major hurricanes that have struck the United States 1901-1999 (there were no major hurricane strikes on the United States in 2000). The reader might note the tendency for the major hurricane landfalls to cluster in certain areas during certain decades. Another interesting point is the tendency for this clustering to occur in the latter half of individual decades in one area and in the first half of individual decades in another area. During the very active period of the thirties this clustering is not apparent.

It appears to me that the trends are on 10-year cycles, more or less.

Naming convention...get it right!

[SirPablo]

IAAM (I Am a Meteorologist), and I don't understand why there is so much confusion on the naming convention.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

"Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center and now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The lists featured only women's names until 1979, when men's and women's names were alternated. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2004 list will be used again in 2010. Here is more information on the history of naming hurricanes."

You don't have letters like Q or X because you really don't have a large pool of names to draw from (equally male and female). Once a NAME is retired, it is never used again. A LETTER is NEVER retired (though I'm not sure what they would do if a an Alpha or Beta was retired).

Names alternate male-female. The beginning sex alternates each year. The first storm this year was Arlene, the first one next year will be Alberto.

Re:...so?

[BRock97]

"There have actually been 11 storms to reach hurricane level this year."

Heh, sorry, I was on my way out to exercise this morning and was afraid that comment was a little ambiguous; I should have clarified. My point was that of the 22 named systems so far this year (up through Alpha), 14 have been relatively weak storms. Plus, the number is actually 12 to have made hurricane force, not 11. The break-down is as follows:

• Category 1: 5 (Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Stan, Vince)
• Category 2: 1 (Irene)
• Category 3: 1 (Maria)
• Category 4: 2 (Dennis, Emily)
• Category 5: 3 (Katrina, Rita, Wilma)