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How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be?
shrouded writes "Rumors have been growing the last few days about hardware shortages for the launch of Microsoft's new video game console this month. No one is speaking about it officially, but off behind-the-scenes whispering makes it sound like initial supplies won't even cover people who have pre-paid for their machines. eToychest spent the weekend asking retailers what they anticipate for the Nov. 22 release date, and its not pretty."
Maybe Microsoft should just rename it the Cabbage Patch 360, rake in their overinflated profits and be done with it. This stinks of marketing shennanigans; either Microsoft has really blown it on their ability to deliver in anticipation of trumping others' rollouts (disingenuous), or they're pulling the Cabbage Patch stunt to go for even more hype and mania around this product (also disingenuous).
Back in the early 80's, my father bought an Alpha Micro for $10,000. It was a silly purchase in retrospect, but he loved the idea of owning a real computer and hoped to put it to work in his business. He eventually did, though it took quite awhile. I learned programming and the rest is history.
What does this have to do with XBoxes? The crazy people who go out and buy one right away subsidize the cost for people who wait a few months and get it when there are actual deals to be had.
If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.
... not the promise of stuff. As an adult, yeah ... I can grasp the idea of getting something when it's available, but that just doesn't compute for kids. Is it right to have a kid so hyped up over materialistic things? Maybe not ... but when I have a kid, but I understand.
You either don't celebrate Christmas, or you've forgotten what a Christmas morning as a little kid is like. I'm 28 and I still rememeber not being able to sleep in anticipation of what I'd find under the tree the next day. To a kid that's fortunate enough to be able to celebrate Christmas, that day is magical because he or she gets stuff
Given the games likely to be available at release, I don't see how the shortage is a bad thing. What am I going to miss out on?
Because my last post was short.
this reminds me of the time cartman got that amusement park, and then wouldn't let anyone come in, so of course everyone was DIEING to get in, simply because they couldn't. The park itself was nothing special, but it was the simple fact that they were not allowed....
I'm not sure what bothers me more, the fact that this scheme is OBVIOUS and a bunch of bull-poop, or the fact that it's working....
i don't care
I don't agree. From recent history in the North American market:
PS2 launched in short supply very close to the holiday season. Demand went up only slightly in time for the actual holidays. Many people didn't care anyways, since the whole first year of the PS2's existence was plagued with a horrible launch lineup of games. It is assumed that the short supply was an orchestrated move on Sony's part, but nowhere near the level of planning that MS is seen as architecting for the 360 launch.
GBA launched in good supply, in June. Supply ran as high as demand, which was also very high. Great planning on Nintendo's part. Everyone wanted them, everyone was able to get them, and people still wanted them and were able to get them through the holiday season. When the product is easy to manufacture and is of a high enough quality, no shenanigans are needed.
GameCube also launched close to the holidays. Supply ran as high as demand, which was much stronger in North America than it was in Japan. Few stores sold out (I only noticed that several Targets in the area had no supply come the holidays, all other stores were fine).
Xbox launched around the same time as the GameCube. Supply met demand, just as with GameCube. Nobody sold out, but supply ran very short with some Targets in the area.
GBA SP launched strong in late summer, supply met demand, and again, people kept buying them into the holidays.
Nintendo DS launched into the holidays and barely met supply, but it was adequate for the most part. There was a one-week period where few stores had stock, but in reality everyone that wanted one for the holidays got one.
PSP launched in early spring. Supply was abundant at many stores, nonexistent at some. EB, GameStop and some CE stores like Best Buy and Circuit City displayed prominent "Sold Out" signs in their stores at the same time that Target and Wal-Mart were neck-high in stock. Speculation at the time was that Sony had allocated few units to only these specialty and electronics stores in order to generate hype, while sending plenty of stock to the general goods stores to generate actual sales.
GameBoy Micro launched in fall. Once again, supply met demand. And in what may be a surprise to some pundits out there, demand and interest in the GBM were very high at launch. Sales of GBA software saw a surge in all regions for the month that the GBM launched, and sales of the unit itself have been strong. GBM has yet to see its first holiday season.
Xbox 360 will launch in two weeks. There are already reports from representatives at several retailers that detail Microsoft's plans to send out very limited supplies. These retailers run the range from specialty stores, to CE stores, to general goods stores, to online retailers. Speculation is that (A) the shortage is truly due to availability and real, but is necessary to meet MS's tremendous goal of a wolrdwide simultaneous launch, or (B) the shortage is artificial and planned, or (C) there will be no shortage, but Microsoft is astroturfing with a leaked rumor about short supply to increase pre-orders for bundled systems.
From this, I'd be comfortable drawing several conclusions.
1. Nintendo systems don't sell out at launch, because Nintendo wants everyone who wants their systems to be able to trade their MONEY for one. Nintendo doesn't play the long-hype/short-supply game, probably because the gains are so short-term and ultimately inconsequential. If that's what you meant by Nintendo being the master of this game, you're right. But somehow I don't think that's what you meant.
2. Sony tries to make sure that their systems sell out at launch. It worked with the PS2 but not with the PSP. They merely seem to be the ones with the most successful example (PS2). I don't think you could call them masters, looking at the way the PSP launch turned out despite their plans. (If the PSP had been released by any other company, it would have been seen as a fairly good launch - but s