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3 Million 360s In 3 Months?
Microsoft is apparently hoping to sell 3 million of its next-gen console in its first three months of life, reports ZDNet. From the article: "'We think through the first 90 days of launch...we expect to have sold 2.75 (million) to 3 million consoles worldwide,' said Bryan Lee, chief financial officer of Microsoft's Home and Entertainment unit. Lee's comments came as part of a speech at the Harris Nesbitt Media & Entertainment Conference in New York. Lee said the prediction should translate to about $1.5 billion in sales of Xbox devices, games and accessories during that period."
Because business analysts pull this stuff out of their asses. That and in any company, marketing, business development, engineering, and manufacturing are locked in an eternal struggle in which there always has to be at least one loser.
So let's say that they sell their 2.75 million Xboxes. For that to be $1.5billion in revenue, they all have to be the $399 version and also have to sell $146 in games and accessories per buyer. Alternatively, the people buying the $299 version have to spend $246 on extras and games on average. They're really counting on an unnaturally high attach rate to get these numbers. Either they're doing something shady to guarantee the numbers come out like that (like counting units shipped to retailers as "sold"), or they're not going to hit $1.5billion on that few consoles.