Apple Holding Back the Music Business?
conq writes "With average weekly download as of Nov. 27 sales down 0.44% vs. the third quart, BusinessWeek speculates that Apple might in fact be holding back the music industry." From the article: "As has been true since the start, iPod owners mostly fill up their players from their own CD collections or swipe tunes from file-sharing sites. Now legal downloads may be losing their luster. According to Nielsen SoundScan, average weekly download sales as of Nov. 27 fell 0.44% vs. the third quarter. Says independent media analyst Richard Greenfield: 'We're not seeing the kind of dramatic growth we should given the surge in sales of iPods and other MP3 players.'"
My Ipod's full, I can't buy any more music!
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Oh no! Downloads are down less than 1% since the third quarter!
Seriously, it's right before Christmas, as the article points out. Nobody's going nuts buying music because they're spending all their money on presents and other holiday shit. Apple says they're selling a crapload of gift cards, and I believe them, given that everything iPod seems to fly off the shelves, virtual or otherwise. Regardless, since you no longer have to buy the physical media songs come on, there's no reason to buy them when you're doing your normal Christmas shopping, so sales very well *should* be down.
iPod sales are nuts, as usual, but that doesn't mean that music has to be selling, either. How many people you know, out of those who have bought iPods recently, are buying their first one? I'm sure a large portion of whatever iPods they're selling are peoples' second or third such devices. They're not going to be re-buying songs just because they got a new player, at least for now...
All this amounts to is another chance for the music services that lost (and it was pretty much over before they even got started) to bash Apple in a futile attempt to gain some traction. It's pointless, though. There's no buzz about Napster or Rhapsody, it's all iPod, iPod, iPod, for better or worse.
Game... blouses.
Well, 0.44% is not too much to whine about (less than half of one percent?) It could be that maybe a lot of popular *new* music didn't come out during that time compared to the quarter before.
Not to mention a lot of the MP3 player sales they're basing their estimates on could have been bought as Christmas presents.
I think they just WANTED a big growth in sales and things just don't always work out that way. They should compare things year to year, not quarter to quarter...
That's my $0.02
I am sure sales will pick up as soon as Apple starts charging "market price" for the music per the wishes of the music industry. :/
The second "critic" expert they decided to ask said this:
"The villain in the story is the iPod. You have this device consumers love, but they're being restricted from buying anything other than downloads from Apple. People are bored with that."
Who was this expert?
None other than Chris Gorog, CEO of Napster Inc.
Yeah, Chris, people are *real* bored. And by people, you mean you and your cronies, and by bored, you mean not making enough money for your tastes.
I would expect more out of BusinessWeek.
I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate.
Critics say Apple's proprietary technology and its refusal to offer more ways to buy or to stray from its rigid 99 cents a song model is dampening legal sales of digital tunes.
If music industry is considering non-propietory technology and prices below 99 cents/song, there is nothing Apple can do to prevent that. All they have to do is put their stuff on mp3tunes.com
FTFA: As has been true since the start..
What exactly is this generalization based on? It basically implies that all individuals owning an ipod/mp3 player are copyright infringers from the get go. Then, just because sales are down for a quarter, it's the sign of the Apocalypse! Are they not teaching logic in schools anymore?
If thou see a fair woman pay court to her, for thus thou wilt obtain love
When downloads start costing significantly less online than on CDs (just like CDs should cost significantly less than CDs) people will buy quite a bit more.
-- I prefer the term "karma escort."
Yes, iPod sales are up, but those sales aren't going to transalte to iTMS purchases until AFTER the iPods have been opened. The story says that gift card sales are "off the charts". You can expect downloads to jump dramatically beginning December 24th.
"We're not seeing the kind of dramatic growth we should given the surge in sales of iPods and other MP3 players."
Hmmm... sales suck on CD, sales suck online... maybe it's time for the record industry to reconsider its current business model of pushing albums where the musicians lose almost all control to producers who churn out an album with three good songs and ten filler tracks.
Jobs wants to lower the cost of songs, but the RIAA has insisted that they raise the cost of new songs in order to lower the cost of other ones. Many people are not willing to pay $.99/song muchless $1.xx for one. And the complaint from Napster in that article is pathetic... they are just upset that Apple dominates the marketplace. You want more sales... then lower the price!
http://religiousfreaks.com/Is 0.44% a statistically significant number?
I.E. So of an average of 1,000,000 downloads, that means last month there were only 995600?
Seems like someone is reading alot into it.
"This even roots my computar, suckwit."
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Could it be that music just sucks 0.44% more than the previous quarter? :)
Out of order? Fuck! Even in the future nothing works! - Dark Helmet (Rick Moranis) "Spaceballs"
This is a case of unreasonable expectations.
When CD's came out, the vast majority of music lovers replaced the albums they already owned with new CD's.
I seriously think that there are music execs out there who were hoping that a new format (downloaded music) would mean that we would all want to buy our entire music collections all over again, in spite of the fact that the power is in our own hands to convert files this time.
Consequently, the back-catalog sales are absolute shit compared to what the early days of CD's were like. Lots of people are using iTMS to buy songs from Fountains of Wayne, Death Cab for Cutie, and/or the latest pop princesses, but nobody's re-buying the old Pink Floyd albums they already own in another format, and that's what's driving them nuts.
Why, we even have the audacity to BACK UP our media files, so we no longer need to buy a new copy every few years because of loss, damage, or wear. It's KILLING their sales numbers.
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
Is to let the RIAA have their way with tiered pricing.. Obviously, if new songs aren't being bought at $.99, they will be purchased in droves at $2.99 for that hit new single...
What are we going to do tonight Brain?
Or, heaven forbid, there might be some people buying multiple iPods...
For example, over the course of the product, I've owned 4 different iPods. Apparently this means that my online music buying should have quadrupled, which it did not.
Thus, the link between iPod sales and buying music online is not directly proportional.
This is such a load of crap. It was RIAA who insisted on DRM before Apple could offer music. So Apple developed FairPlay to make RIAA happy, and thus was able to get all of the music we see in iTunes Music Store. This is whining because of the monster that was created. Apple owns the only really successful online music store. Apple owns the only portable music player that works with FairPlay. Music labels can easily get around this by dropping the need for DRM.
This is exactly the lock-in future that DRM brings to the world. The music labels are crying bitter tears because they don't control the locks. Whaa whaa whaa. What would be different if Sony had succeeded instead of Apple? Do we think we'd be seeing Sony offering whatever they had to everyone? No. DRM simply sucks. It's anti-consumer, anti-competitive and restricts the growth of the marketplace. Reap what you've sown, you greedy bastards.
In other news, the RIAA and major music industry conglomerates have announced new terms for customers purchasing and listening to their members' music.
"All people do with their CDs and iPods is listen to them. People think that they don't have to pay anything else beyond the initial purchase price. But what they don't understand is that they need to pay royalties every time they listen to them," said RIAA spokesman, Bob Degalhart. "Every song you play on your stereo or iPod should require some form of small micropayment to us for the right to even play that music. Everyone should realize that purchasing the music is only the first of many steps."
The RIAA and the industry plans to push legislation to require all stereo equipment, MP3 players, and hearing aids be fitted with special software that is capable of completing micropayment transaction per listen. Industry member Sony says that it has special software available for installation on home PCs for this purpose and plans to deploy it in the near future.
That there is one very compelling reason NOT to buy legal downloads. DRM. No, not for the tinfoil hat reasons, but for one very simple one: interoperability. I can't take my DRMed iTunes AAC file and play it with my MP3-CD car radio. I can't play it via HMO on my TiVo. I can't play it in any other portable device. While I do own an iPod, I also own other devices that I listen to music on. Those can't play AAC, let alone DRM AAC. And I'm not even going to get into WMA-DRM.
Burning it to CDA and re-ripping it doesn't count. It's annoying and drops all the metadata, in addition to the transcoding quality loss. If they want to sell me music, it MUST be in a non-DRM format that I can use on ALL of my devices, MP3 for example. If they refuse, I'll take my money/time elsewhere. Indy, filesharing, certain russian sites, etc.. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. I'd be happy to pay $1/song, for high-quality (LAME-Standard minimum) MP3 or FLAC audio files. Hell, let me pick the format and bitrate and charge me a little more for the bandwidth for the higher filesizes. Oh, wait, someone else allready does that.....
Everything on my iPod is either 224 or 192kbps VBR mp3s ripped with LAME. I can even tell the difference between that and source and am considering reripping all my CDs to a lossless format, which I am NOT looking forward to, as I have over 1000 CDs.
The 128kbps AAC files from the ITMS don't do it for me. They sound highly compressed and you can occasionally here aural artifacts in the high-end, like flanging in the cymbal washes. It's a lot worse with 128kbps mp3s, for sure, but the quality just isn't high enough for me to even spend a dollar there.
Free yourself. Everything else will follow.
The author is saying a) We predicted that we should be making X sales this week, and b) we are not. Therefore Apple is to blame, as are the people who keep choosing to not buy the overpriced "music".
Can you spot the logical flaw?
Last week I predicted the following:
a) I would immediately win a hundred bojillion dollars in the lottery.
b) The most beautiful women in the world would gather around me to sing my praises.
None of that has happened so far, and seeing as how b is dependent upon a (lets not kid ourselves, I'd have to buy plane tickets for all of them to fly here), we should focus on a. A requires me doing things like buying lottery tickets, and the lottery having that kind of money, neither of which is the case. Therefore there is only one inescapable explanation: It's all the lottery people's fault. They're 'holding me back'. They should have set the pot that high, given me a free ticket, and then changed the rules so that only I would win.
I love this game!
0.44%!? That's less than 1%, hot damn the world's rebeling against music! That's like.. DOOMED!
Totally ignore the fact that Christmas is comming up and people stop spending money on what they want and start saving for others, very often presents arn't music so the money goes else where.
I like muppets.
I am the same way and for a very practical reason: the quality (sound quality) of digital downloads is inferior to that of a CD. If Apple were to offer high quality downloads (using the Apple lossless format for example) I would start buying downloads even if the per song price were over $1. Maybe they could offer the "standard" 128k AAC files for $1 and the "audiophile" Apple Lossless files for $1.50 or even $2.00. For a lossy compressed format, ~200kbit VBR MP3 is the minimum I will accept. (I encode my own CDs using LAME preset standard and that seems to average out around 200k.)
Also, they need to come up with a solution to the "segue" problem. Many albums are mixed such that one track segues smoothly into the next. You get this when you buy the CD. When you buy digital downloads you get hiccups (gaps) between the tracks. Kludges like a crossfade in the MP3 player are not acceptable. I want the exact segue as mixed on the original CD!
There are two pieces to fixing this: the files themselves need tags indicating that a segue exists into the next track from the album and, for compressed audio formats, there needs to be a tag indicating any "gap" (coding delay or frame padding) at the beginning and end of the file such that the MP3 player can strip this off during playback. (The LAME encoder does this and so you get gapless playback on an enabled player eg Foobar2000.) The other item the tags should contain is a recommended fadein and fadeout to use when a track is not played among the other tracks of that album. That way you dont get abrupt cutoffs when playing songs in shuffle.
Did I mention I still buy music on CD? Lots of it too!
I bet I only find about 40% of the stuff I'm looking for on iTunes Music Store. I want to get a lot of music I grew up listening to but is not available on CD or online. Why don't these dimwit music labels put all of their back catalogs online? They sit on piles and piles of music that, if made available, would earn them money. Unlike pressing and shipping CDs, getting them online is a one-time cost that will easily be made up in sales.
I'm sorry, but I've stopped purchasing RIAA encumbered music. There's plenty out there, and I don't need to support greedy corporations who don't understand their customer wants or needs. It only took a few years, but I finally caught that the RIAA is not interested in making sure that I remain a customer, and I've complied by taking my business elsewhere. Magnatune, Positron Records, Metropolis Records... they all get it. Soon other companies will understand that the problem isn't their customers (who want to support them), but the marginalized trade group cartels that are holding them back. Until this happens, my cash goes elsewhere.
Sorry, RIAA... you had your chance.
I'm sure draconian cd prices and lousy pop music have nothing to do with a decrease in sales.
My lady and I have a tendency to purchase a LOT of music -- we've filled a few 400 disc changers in the past before going with a wholehouse MP3 distribution system.
Our reasons for buying less music is:
1. Dislike of Sony and the RIAA -- where we used to buy 3-4 CDs a week at Borders, we're lucky to buy even 1 a month because of their strongarm tactics. Until Borders starts carrying the popular indie bands in their area, we won't buy CDs. Some indie bands in our area have sold 2000+ CDs privately without record store support. If they expect to be part of my community, they better do more research.
2. Bigger support of the ma-and-pa brick and mortars. As our retail stores that we own lose business to the dotcoms and the super stores, we've found that by supporting other locally owned shops, we see more locally employed customers at our stores. It is the ultimate "outsourcing" to see your community spending money outside of the community to save on sales tax and maybe a 5% difference in price beyond that. 14% is still a huge savings, all from government coercion.
3. Income. Our income this year is about double the last 3, but our income in the last 6 months is down over 70%. I've been putting more of my income into real savings (gold, silver, property) to weather to storm ahead. I've also expanded my market from just-the-Midwest to the entire world, and I expect it will take a year or two to get back to my first half of 2005 income levels.
4. Quality. The quality of the mass produced records is terrible. I can't listen to the top 40 record stations at all -- every vocalist is enhanced, delay and reverb is worse than the 80s, and the compression destroys any fidelity that might have made it through the overproduction period. Garbage in, garbage out, garbage unbought.
5. Promotion. I don't feel any desire to pay $50 to see a concert of 3 bands I barely know. The indie scene is usually $6 to $12, I see 2 amazing bands and 3 new bands cutting their teeth. $2 beer, $4 calls instead of the big shows where we paid $14 for a drink recently ($110 per ticket). Without cheap promotion the records won't sell.
6. Collusion. Try to get tickets today to any popular show. The rules governing ticket scalping are created specifically to take care of the few scalpers who are licensed by the local government. It has made shows nearly impossible to attend to. One popular show we were willing to pay $60 per ticket for was sold almost entirely to 3 ticket scalpers.
7. No desire. There are so many new ways to be entertained (due to the web) that music-on-CD just won't cut it anymore. I've been talking to a local show producer who is finding better ways to stream live shows to the web in a high quality, high fidelity, well produced show. I can't wait for his work to come to fruition.
Because those greedy bastards want a nickel EVERY TIME YOU HEAR THE SONG
if you steal from one source, that is plagiarism, if you steal from many, well, that's just research.
It's mp3 this year but who knows what audio format is coming around next year? Are you going to be able to play your iTunes downloads 10 years from now?
I'm glad Apple is doing well with iTunes, but it's just not for me. I want a disk. I want a disk I can rip to the PC and portable device of my choosing whether it's on Windows, OSX or Linux. And I especially want to be able to find something that can still play that CD 10 years from now.
That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
.44%. Half of 1 percent. And what is their margin of error? Somehow I doubt Nielsen SoundScan has THAT high a precision.
* We dance where angels fear to tread *
Simply put, record company execs are looking for entitlements.
Ultimately, they think they are intitled to make a profit every time someone listens to a song under their umbrella, or iron fist.
So if I own a lot of LP records, and want to listen to them in the car (car turntables are not very stable unless you drive really carefully) they cry "No Fair!" and get a tax put on casset tapes.
If this were really about piracy, that would be the only thing they would mention. The fact that they are complaining about people filling up their iPods with music that they already have a legal right to tells us what is really on their mind. They feel entitled for people to buy music all over again. And in another 10-20 years they will propose yet another format and expect it over again. Like a corrupt utility company, or a corrupt government, record companies want the right to tax us and then keep that money for themselves.
With any luck Artists will control their own music, and profit from it by then and the record companies will be dead.
I hate Liberals and Conservatives.
If you are a Liberal or a Conservative, then HAVE A NICE DAY!
Courage.
The problem the music industry is facing right now isn't a decline in the sales of new music, it's just that their cash cow of back catalog replacement sales is withering. They had intended to salvage this buy going with DVD Audio and trying to get people to re-buy everything yet again.
The problem for them is that there's nothing compelling about new music formats other than MP3/AAC. DVD Audio may be wonderful, but to the average person who just wants to listen to some music in the car, or while working out, it doesn't matter. The high end audiophile types might get into it, but there's not enough of them to create the necessary economies of scale.
I would argue that Apple/ITunes is boosting new music sales because it makes it so incredibly easy. If I find a new artist, I can e-mail you a link, you click it, and 30 seconds later, you're downloading the new music. No trips to the store. No forgetting about that cool new album your friend recommended. Plus the IMixes give another way to find music you might not have bought before.
So it is good for the music industry in the long run, but they have to learn to accept the fact that the crack pipe of back catalogue music sales is running out of smoke. It's going to be hard times for them for a while because even with growing new album sales, they're likely to see an ongoing decline in revenue.
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The music industry insists that we all should buy our music collections all over again. It's legal to copy the CDs for your own use - just as it's legal to copy DVDs for your own use.
That's why the laws to make it illegal to break encryption - it was a way around consumer rights. You can rip DVDs for your own use, but you can't break encryption, and the movies are encrypted.
This nonsense of attempting to DRM CDs is just the music industry trying to play catch-up. Trust me, I've ripped my 200+ CD collection, and the music industry would have me pay for every single song a second time.
The opinion above is fiction. Any similarity to real opinions, including facts and logic, is purely coincidental.
Yeah, that's what I thought.
I know dozens of talented musicians in active local bands, but I don't know anyone - not even a friend of a friend - who makes a living from their band.
The solution? Let go of those cherished dreams about getting "discovered" and give your music to the world for free. If you don't like the record industry, that's the best way to screw them. Do it for the recognition. Do it for the chicks. Do it because you enjoy it. But if you're doing it for the money, you'd be better off buying lottery tickets.
Step into a huge movement. Don't Tread In Me.
Chris Gorog, CEO of Napster Inc. (NAPS ), which sells both subscriptions and downloads. "You have this device consumers love, but they're being restricted from buying anything other than downloads from Apple. People are bored with that."
Chris,
I know this is hard to wrap your head around. The iPod is a media player with a built in hard drive. There is no vendor lock in. I've been able to downlaod music from napster, kazaa, soundclick, and a variety of vendors. Amazingly, they all work fine. AIFF, WAV, MP3, ACC, all work fine on my iPod. Should your's behave differently, RTFM.
What the iPod doesn't do, is support every god damned DRM scheme on the planet that lets you and your corporate cronies "lease" your DRM infected music to iPod owners. Quite frankly I'm not interested in DRM laden crap from napster, real, or anyone else including iTMS. I bought my iPod to carry around the large collection of music I already have, not to populate it with new music that has been approved by some industry suit.
So, in conclusion, the iPod is a hard drive. I can get files of any type onto it with ease. The iPod is a media player. I can play a fair variety of widely available media types without problems. The problem is in the DRM schemes that lock content to specific devices.
The iPod did not lock me into anything, your DRM infected business plan locked me out of your customer base. I am not interested, and it has nothing to do with my iPod.
I have not, nor will I ever "lease" digital music for my device. If I am paying with real cash, I want real bits I can twiddle as I see fit.
As has been true since the start, iPod owners mostly fill up their players from their own CD collections
... growth ... we should"... hmmm.. I think its time to hire new analysts, right? Just because someone came up with some numbers doesn't mean its a bonafide, set in stone, destined fact. If this commentary is referring just to the current quarter, then they should REALLY give themselves a kick in the pants - sure iPods and other MP3 players are flying off the shelves: people are buying them for christmas gifts. They aren't even being used yet! They're probably wrapped up and under a tree, or being shipped, etc.
I'm not sure why they are surprised with this? Did they honestly think people would only put newly-purchased music on their iPods (apparently so)? Why wouldn't I want to put all the music I already listen to on it? When the iPods first came out, it seemed like the biggest buyers were people with too much money on their hands that bought every CD that ever appealed to them, and were tired of shopping for n-disc changers for their cars and jukebox systems for their homes. The whole POINT is that they can hold albums and albums and albums of music without carrying around all the accompanying cruft (CD organizers, anyone?). iTMS was just icing on the cake, a way to explore new music and purchase a track or two without buying the whole album. If I had to make a guess, I'd say iTMS completely revitalized the 'singles' market.
We're not seeing the kind of dramatic growth we should given the surge in sales of iPods and other MP3 players
"the
PAH. I give up. Someone needs to get the music industry to grow up and stop whining that someone played with their toy: it's time for them to eat their vegetables and wear regular underwear instead of diapers. This should be accompanied by a talk about how life doesn't play by the rules you make up for yourself. Sheesh.
You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
(The Beatles)
...is that starting around the end of November, a lot of people who bought iPods just took them home and wrapped them in colorful paper instead of opening them and loading them with music. Wait.
Nobody will sell those MP3 files on-line. So you have to jump through extra hoops to get to them. I'm sorry, but I'm not accepting MP3 as a non-lock-in example.
"Buying an iPod does not force me to buy from iTMS."
Okay, maybe I'm being ignorant here. What other services can you buy iPod compatible music for? I'm dead serious, I'll back down if you can name one or two. Part of my reaction here is that I CAN'T use my existing music service with an iPod, but with other players I can. You'd be doing me a huge favor if you could suggest an alternative music service with a subscription model that I could use an iPod with.
Failure to fill a market void is not lock in. Your subscription services failure to offer iPod compatible music is not lock in. You are the one that chose a subscription service which locks you out of using the iPod.
T Money
World Domination with a plastic spoon since 1984
That's why the statistic is quarter over quarter. Every sales statistic in existance uses quarter over quarter sales to account for the routine seasonal fluctuation, since after all, it was almost Christmas this time last year as well.
-- Political fascism requires a Fuhrer.
This reminds me of the "Apple is dying" hogwash. iTMS sales are down a bit so now Apple is holding back the music industry? Give me a break. It if wasn't for iTMS, the music industry's main mode of doing business with the internet would be the same as it was in 1998-9 -- suing the hell out of Napster, Gnutella, etc. users, and extorting money from anyone forward-thinking enough to invest in such endeavors. Apple came along and showed the industry that there was a way to make money selling legal downloads, and now they are bitching that it's not enough. They want the price raised; they want more DRM; they want more restrictions and more costs added until we are paying full album sticker price every time we listen to a song, and they're still complaining that sales are going down. Even then it won't be enough for these greedy corrupt egotistical blowhards. Given their attitude they should be happy anyone buys any music from them at all.
In your case, it sounds like you've "outgrown" buying more music. You aren't into new artists or looking forward to new records coming out.
To get my 70+ year old father to buy more music, you'd have to bring Bob Wills back from the dead to record another album.
I don't think you or my father are the kind of customer the RIAA is trying to attract.
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