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U.S. Internet Growth Stalling
abb_road writes "Internet usage is predicted to grow by only 1% in 2006, with uptake slowing even more in subsequent years. The article examines causes for the slowdown, including individuals who are actively choosing to not be online. These non-users cite a number of reasons for their decision, including cost and increased productivity. Is this simply a combination of luddites and a statistical quirk, or is the Internet reaching its saturation point in the U.S.?"
From the article, "Goodwin knows how easy it is for Big Brother to gain access to personal information." This one reason for not using the Internet is a perfect example of pure ignorance in regards to privacy. I bet this person has no problem handing a credit card to the waitress, gas station attendant, or retail clerk. How do these oh so careful people combat a waitress, gas station attendant, or retail clear from making note of the credit card number, three digit security code on the back, and expiration date and then selling it to a friend or using it themselves?
What is the growth rate of broadband availability?
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My usage has dropped drastically in the last few years, primarily due to the commercialization, ads, scams, pop-overs, etc. I realize that these people need to make money too, but in general, it just seems things have been commercialized to the point of irritation.
There's still lots of interesting stuff out here, it's just getting less worthwhile to look for it.
1984? That's a bit of a stretch. There, the government controlled all communications; I don't think any one government can control the Internet. It's spread across the globe and even repressive governments allow limited access.
Her problem is that she's bought into the media hype over the problems on the Internet. It's not like there are none, but if she's worried about her personal information, does she throw out sensitive documents (pay stubs, credit card bills, etc.) without shredding them? Perhaps she's handed her card over to a cashier, not realizing it's being double swiped. Does she carry on cell phone conversations out in public, blithely giving away personal details anyone in earshot can hear?
The problem is not the Internet, but the people on the Internet, specifically the con artists, scammers, and criminals who now have a new way of fleecing honest citizens. As long as the media contnues to blow every story out of proportion, Internet growth will die out.
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The Internet has to be worth it for those:
-Who don't want to get viruses
-Who don't want to get spam
-Who don't want to pay $50 a month for fast Internet
-Who don't want to mess with computers at all
When someone's computer gets all screwed up with viruses they often buy another computer to work around the problem. Maybe it's time to upgrade anyway, but sheesh that's a big investment just to surf the net.
The biggest thing that would get *me* off the Internet is the monthly $50 cost. Cable is the only option where I live, and Adelphia won't give us a break.
For whatever reason, when I explain how to do something to my mother, she insists on writing it down in a notebook, step by step. If I try to explain a process with multiple paths to the solution, she tends to get confused quite easily (e.g. you can either click the print icon on the toolbar or go to file->print and select that option).
She is 59.
This is just empiricle evidence of course, but the nature of multiple paths, whether its the computer's interface or the sorting through the billions of results on Google, really seems to confuse the older generation.
In some respects, my mother seems to do better when she one definitive research source, and one path to a solution.
Articles like Businessweek's only reinforce the incorrect perceptions of the ignorant. It would only take one "by the way," sentence in articles like these to help get even a tiny sliver of truth into people's minds - the Net is as safe (or unsafe) as you make it. By getting online, you are not automatically exposing yourself to any dangers you would otherwise never experience. It is what you do with your own information online that creates, or eliminates, security risk.
Rex is 09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
Once new applications and uses appear, the growth in the use of the Internet will continue. We've run out of users for the current applications and uses of the Internet. The way to tap into more users is to create more and different things that can be used.
Thank God we have a highly visible individual to attach all blame for everything wrong in the world.
Rex is 09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
I sit at a computer all day at work, why would I want to do more of that in my spare time?
I hear this idea a lot. But I don't get it, at least not for someone who is a computer enthusiast. Yes, I spend all day at work on the computer, but not all that time is very much fun. In my spare time, I like to use computers for all those fun or useful activities that I couldn't use it at work for because I was too busy WORKING. Granted, I do a wide variety of other activities in my free time, but some of it goes to using computers (which includes programming and other activities that are essentially forms of work). Maybe my job is just getting boring and I don't get to create all the things I want to, so I have to spend my free time to do the things I want to do.
#!/
You really think that if you post something (that you wrote) on your blog that someone is going to sue you for copyright infringement? You may have valid points about copyright being "out of hand", but if you seriously think that more than, say, five people in the world cancel their internet out of fear of being sued for infringement, you need to seriously get a grip on reality.
If you are in the content creation business, different story I suppose. But getting out of a particular business does not require ceasing to use the internet at all.
I live in San Francisco where you'd think the Internet was as pervasive as the air we breathe, and to some degree it is. But I'm originally from Wyoming, (no broke back mountain jokes please) and I can tell you that most people there don't have computers.
What they do have however, is Playstations and Xbox's. The reasons why are numerous. Cost, lack of options, etc.
I believe that the next generation consoles, particularly the PS3, along with Ajaxy Web 2.0 and the continued proliferation of broadband to the home, will truly start to bring the Internet to the masses.
A computer is still intimidating and a tough sell to a lot of these people... but a $300 game machine that your 4 kids are begging for, that's an easy sell.
Once they discover that it has a decent web browser and that there's a whole new world of communication and content out there... then things will start to really grow.
You don't get it...he's a CEO, he doesn't have to do such time-wasteful frivolities, he has other people to do it for him.
Using the internet is a waste of time, just have others to do it for you and reap the benefits.
Writing things down on paper is a waste of time, just have others to do it for you and reap the benefits.
Cooking food and washing clothes is a waste of time, just have others to do it for you and reap the benefits.
Seriously, somebody who can delegate his usage of the Internet to an underling and then claim it a waste of time is engaging in self-deception, IMO.
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When dealing with a computer problem, I look for 8 solutions. When my wife wants my help with housework, she's learned that the trick is to give me "explicit" instructions, without multiple paths. Likewise, when she is doing something on the computer, once she learns an approach, she normally keeps doing it without considering other options.
It's not about being old or slow, it's about "do you care about this?"
She likes to cook, she'll work on 10 different ways to make a chicken and rice meal. I can make rice, only because she told me what to do once. BTW: while I'm sure there is a way to make rice in the microwave, I've never explored it, and in fact, I use the same pot each time.
If you don't care to "learn" how something works, you develop a process. I have no interest in learning how to cook, so I don't learn options, I just learn what to do.
You are interested in computers, therefore, you find a path. I bet when it comes to laundry, someone taught you how to wash your shirts once, and you've never experimented with different combinations of hanging the clothes to dry or running the dryer, have you? My mom could teach you all the ways to make different types of shirts require more/less ironing and different levels of softness, but I don't care. In college, I memorized settings for each shirt type, and never experimented.
Alex
Good point. Computers are intimidating to most end users that I deal with on a daily basis. They are all so afraid to 'mess something up' that most of them do not take full advantage of the services our IT dept has to offer. Having a console that you cannot mess up without physical damage sounds like a better idea to your average end user who wants nothing more than to surf the web anyway. The toughest sell I believe will not be the four to five hundred bucks on the console, but the monthly forty to fifty Mom and Dad will have to shell out. The people that are willing to pay for broadband have it, but those who do not want to spend that money do not. Maybe if the price was right, they would pick it up. This also leads to another question - since broadband access is so widespread now have the prices cheapened enough to bring in those that think it has been too high? My monthly subscription price hasn't dropped...
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This is not far from the point. The Internet was designed to serve the university research community. It is hardly unexpected if less than 100% of US households are interested in the result.
The 'slow' rate of growth is entirely expected. The telephone system grew rapidly in the 30s through the 60s then 'growth' hit a wall and the increase in the number of subscribers was almost entirely due to old non subscribers passing away and a near 100% uptake rate amongst people in their 20s.
If you look at the figures the number of non Internet households is only 34%. The number of non-subscribers is only 29%. Multiply the two figures together and the proportion of the population that has not adopted the net that is most likely to is only 10%. 1% growth per year is about what you would expect at that point - and it is going to be comming almost entirely from the aging effect.
This has been the case for several years now.
The other effect that is not mentioned here is the number of people who have broadband at work but don't want to pay for or cannot get broadband at home. If I could not get broadband at home I would really not want to pay for dialup. I would probably go to Panera to surf instead.
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I'm 17, and the internet really does cut into alot of time I could be using for better things. I mean, I hate shit like myspace and I do have a blog, but rarely do I post to it. Honestly, it's trying to just keep up with all the news I read, and a few forums I'm addicted to, and the occasional IM. But all of those things add up when you're a student, no matter if it's college or not. I personally get wrapped up too much in the headlines for science, or what's coming in the new (X desktop environment of any sort). So I care less about what's important.
space is pretty cool.
The cost of basic living necessities are going up (gas for transportation, electricity for the home, misc. utilities rising) to the point that serious budgeting is taking place. My household already gave up on cable TV (our 2nd year), landline phone access (no cheap DSL), 60F thermostat settings for the winter and relegating the SUV only to short hops or when professionally needed (I'm a regular gigging musician lugging around huge speakers - it's a legit use). Saving that $60 per month (Comcast cable modem) really makes a difference. And for the majority of what I use the internet for, I can do it easily enough through my day job. Hell, I even use an iMac because - well 1 of the reasons ;-) - it only has a 70 or so watt powersupply compared to a 300-500W PC desktop psu.
A major factor of internet growth slowing is due to corporate greed. Costs everywhere are too high when factored into the rest of the average US citizens budget. The bottom is soon going to collapse - I can't wait.
Well if anything's going to turn me off using the Net (well the Web anyway) it's things like the full-page ad that interupts viewing of the referenced article.
I notice that Wired.com has also started spitting those annoying ads recently too.
When confronted with such an ad I just hit the back button and don't return.
I'm happy to accept banner ads (even skyscrapers) but any site that dishes up pop-up/under/over ads and full-page interstitials immediately gets crossed off my list of "sites worth visiting"
Am I the only one who got that ad on the BWO site -- or doesn't anyone else care that the Net is becoming increasingly like TV in respect to the intrusiveness of advertising?
The article fails to mention how the U.S. stacks up with other first world countries. My guess is that we're pretty far behind. Let's face it, the U.S. is a great place to live, but only if you are in the lucky half with adequate finances and education. So much for the tide lifting all boats. "Fuck you, I got mine," is pretty much the American mindset these days. It's probably the precise attitude expressed by the passengers on board the Titanic as it sank into the ocean. Kind of sad.
---Technology will liberate us if it doesn't enslave us first.
It would also be easy enough to take a second credit card reader, velcro it to the side of the monitor, and then swipe every credit card through that a few times. All you'd have to do is put on a frustrated face when it didn't work, and then swipe it through the real credit-card acceptor that was actually connected to the machine. I bet most people wouldn't ever even notice, I've seen lots of POS systems that have multiple scanners attached to them (e.g., one built into the keyboard, one up on the monitor).
... let them do it a few times, then when it doesn't work, offer to scan it on the one attached to the register. This has happened to me many times at the grocery store, it would never be questioned.
Heck you can make people do it themselves -- put the fake one on the counter and when people go to pay with a credit card point to it, people will swipe
People are very cavalier about swiping their credit/debit/ATM cards -- a few years I saw a TV station in a major city (I think it was NYC) put up a kiosk on the street near an ATM with a reader on it and a sign that said "Clean your credit card's magnetic strip here!" People ran their cards through without even thinking twice about it. (Heck, you could write "Credit Card Degausser" on the front and I bet some idiots would use it.)
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