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U.S. Internet Growth Stalling
abb_road writes "Internet usage is predicted to grow by only 1% in 2006, with uptake slowing even more in subsequent years. The article examines causes for the slowdown, including individuals who are actively choosing to not be online. These non-users cite a number of reasons for their decision, including cost and increased productivity. Is this simply a combination of luddites and a statistical quirk, or is the Internet reaching its saturation point in the U.S.?"
I'm sure spam, phishing scams, and annoying ads also play a role in the barrier for growth.
There's also my personal reason (for not getting online AS MUCH anyway) -- I sit at a computer
all day at work, why would I want to do more of that in my spare time?
Or is it still possible to live without using the Internet? I would certainly think so. Unfortunately, I don't think there's any turning back for me (or any other Slashdotter, for that matter). I can only change my Internet usage habits, but I can't stop using it.
Hell is not other people; it is yourself. - Ludwig Wittgenstein
Maybe almost everybody in the US who could be interested in having an access to the net does have it already, so is logic to think that the percentage of internet users in the US will rise with the time, but slower every year.
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When is the last time you told someone to google something (most likely to get them off your back) and they said, "Oh, I don't use that interweb thing."
I suspect that the two main reasons for any increase in the number of people using the internet in the US at this point is due to the fact that more people are being born than dying, and likely also has to do with the number of immigrants.
Coincidentally, the numbers on the CIA Factbook give me 1% when taking these things into consideration.
QED???
This would at least provide an incentive for people to sign up and start using the internet.
Then, you can show them Google, Wikipedia and Slashdot and they may never leave.
He who knows best knows how little he knows. - Thomas Jefferson
Bill Gates is probably personally responsible for the reticence of large numbers of potential Internet users and ex-users.
Between difficult to use features, hardware incompatibilities, non-intuitive settings and choices, then spam, virii, adware, phishing, etc, I have seen people give up on the Internet, because they simply couldn't figure out all of Gates BS.
I switched one friends wife to an iBook, and she (also a newbie) has had little problem, and it makes him a bit envious. He is reluctant to try anything new at this point, as Windows was so hard to deal with.
For the average users it is only one thing that is important: EASE OF USE.
... The fact you STILL can't get High speed access in large portions of the US. I moved around 2 mile about 2 years ago. I used to live THREE miles East of MCI/Worldcom and AOL's world headquarters and I could NOT get HSIA. This was, at the time, the fasted growing county in the US, and I could tell you for a fact that 1/2 the homes couldnt' get HSIA.
This doesn't seem to be the problems with other countries for some reason. I guess their comunications companies actually want to make money on selling internet access, too bad ours doesn't.
When you OWN the politicians, you cna jsut sit back and charge 10 times the amount for similar service in other countries and you don't have to lift a finger to increase your service area. Why do work when you can get the politicians to pass laws allowing you to do nothing to add user access and charge out the wazzoo.
Prof. Farnsworth - "Oh a lesson in not changing history from Mr I'm-My-Own-Grandpa!"
The "AWE and AMAZEMENT" of the internet is over in the US. The boom days of the late 90's and early 00's are also over... or more to the point... we got what we wanted (email and the web for those that wanted it). From a personal perspective, I use the internet less now than I did 2-3 years ago. I think we are starting to balance out...
The internet is like any other technology in that untimately it's installment rate must slow, and eventually stall. just as there are people in the US who do not own cel phones or have television, there will inevitably be people who will not use the internet. At the beggining of a new market, the main barrier to entry is the kinks in the technology. The people called innovators typically don't care what it costs to get ahold of a new technology because they enjoy the technology for it's own sake. These people are about 5% of the market, and sometimes less. The next set of about 20% of the market are the early adopters who buy into new technology/market because they see a new use for a product or technology. In gaming these are the people we call "hardcore" gamers. To the early adopters the main barrier to entry cost. The minute cost comes down and the kinks in the technology are worked out, allowing for easier user interface, these people jump all over the new product. After them follows the mainstream market which is the bulk of the consumers. people who are not technologically inclined, or particularly interested in anything new. these are the people who bought DVD players 5 years after the technologies release. These are also the people who started going on the net around the time AOL become "popular". To the mass market, cost and practicality are the main issues. the lower the cost, the more of the mass market you can capture, but it is here that the saturation point starts to appear. the late adopters are the end of the road. these are the people who finally bought a VCR when DVD came out and the people who bought their first CD player when MP3 players came out. They are almost always one step behind everyone else, and they need any and all products to be VERY easy to use. Once a company/technology has the mass market, the only consumers left to fight for are the late adopters, who are hard if not impossible to reach. Once you are trying to get these people to use a technology, you know that the market has hit a wall. it appears to me that at least in North America, we have probably reached that point. The older generation of americans who are not already online are very unlikely to get online anytime soon, and the people who just refuse to use technology (late adopters) are so small in number, that even if you get them on the bandwagon, you would still not grow your market by much. So in terms of the current technology it looks like we have hit the wall in the number of users. But that does not mean that this is the limit. New technologies that allow people to connect to the internet indirectly, or through divices other than PC's will expand the nets user-base anyway.
Fool me once...shame on you, fool me twice...won't be fooled again (our president)
And how naive do you have to be to believe that your personal information isn't on the Internet just because you didn't put it there?
...is that it's not worth the hassle, since ISPs are placing all kinds of restrictions on usage. Read your ISP's TOS and AUP some time. Most of them are surprisingly restrictive, even though they don't enforce them. I'd be running a webserver, and e-mail server and VoIP over my connection, except that my ISP won't extend its high-cap services to my neighborhood (won't upgrade their equipment), and they severely throttle upload bandwidth. The #1 question I get on forums is about hosting files.
The future of the Internet is personal services: Getting the content you want how you want it, and taking the content you have and distributing it how you want. The iPod's popularity should make that absolutely crystal-clear. The average high-speed internet user around my neck of the woods has several PCs, a router and a hub. Network devices like mini-fileservers and web-enabled black-boxes are the next extension to this. Boy, would I love it if I could 'beam' content to a media player in my car from my home network. I would *pay* for this service. I would *pay* for upgraded bandwidth, but my ISP doesn't want the business.
We all want cheap bandwidth and control of our content. Bandwidth bandwidth bandwidth. It's about the bandwidth, guys.
> there's only so much porn you can watch....
Actually, I think you're spot on.
Taking my sister-in-law as being typical, what does she do with the internet?
1) Forward shit that snopes has already flagged as being an urban legend
2) Forward crass jokes
3) IM her kids
4) Maybe read some news
5) Download/Stream Music
That's it. #4 seems reasonable. #3 isn't too bad, although a phone would really be useful.
To most Americans, the Internet is just another drug - another way for the average Joe to get his jollies and his world view reaffirmed. It's more of a TV with a keyboard.
So, when my sister asks "What good is the internet good for?" when what she hears about is mostly 1-5 on the list above, it's hard for her to understand that the net really is useful.
Well, for starters. Your entire argument makes no sense. How does a waitress stealing your card number equal "Big Brother gaining access to personal information" ??
"Big Brother" is the government, and occasionally overly powerful large corporations.
He is likely worried about the government reading his email, monitoring his internet searches, the sites he visists, the instant messages he sends.
He is likely aware that they can still tap his phone, monitor his library usage, and follow him around to see who he talks to but he is secure in the knowledge that government can't afford to give everyone that kind of personalized attention, while online, potentially they can.
My mother lives out in the middle of nowhere (nearest town is over 15 miles away). I brought her a computer so she could access the internet and e-mail me. Well, it turns out that there is not an ISP with an access number that is local to her. So, no net access (she can't afford the long distance). There are still plenty of people who live in areas like that.
I think that the lack of useful applications of the internet is finally overtaking the novelty factor. While not a luddite, (mostly) I don't even bother with email anymore, and only use the web to read news, get driving directions and order pizza. Where at one point $50/mo seemed reasonable for high speed, I now balk at spending $15/mo for DSL.
People who think they know everything really piss off those of us that actually do.
Note: Ken_g6, this isn't aimed at you - your tips are spot on...
If you know what you are doing, have no qualms about "dumpster diving", and are willing to get up off the couch for a weekend to peruse business park/office building dumpsters - most of the time you can get enough working parts for a computer - for free!
Indeed, if you work for any business with a large enough IT department, and are nice to the IT staff, you can sometimes get whole systems for nothing. The last company I worked at, I managed to grab tons of old hardware - most of the machines in my house are made from scrap they gave me.
I can't tell you how much hardware can be found just by looking at dumpsters behind office buildings and in business parks (another tip - if your municipality has "bulk-trash-pickup", browse around "rich area" of town when their scheduled dates are near - rich people are somtimes idiots when it comes to computers, and tend to throw out 1-2 year old boxes and buy new when they get infested with spyware). Make sure you have a truck (small 4-banger pickup will do), and some scruffy clothes on (jeans, gloves, boots, hat, t-shirt, etc - remember, you will be working with garbage), and just tell any security you are moving and need boxes - most will go away. If they persist, appologize and leave immediately. If you find some stuff, grab it and take it home before grousing elsewhere (hard to pull the "just-moving-and-need-boxes" bit when you have 19 inch rack in the back of your pickup). If you need more parts, Goodwill, other thrift stores, and helpful friends can get you other stuff. For the rest, you may need to EBay or buy new parts.
Now, you won't have the latest and greatest machine on the planet just to play WoW on, but I guarantee (especially using FOSS) that you will have a good machine to do real work on.
Reason is the Path to God - Anon
The *real* reason for the slowdown in growth is that Worldcom/MCI is not fudging the growth numbers anymore. Previous growth and usage numbers were pure BS, now it is only partial BS...
Oh well, what the hell...
If I had to guess, I'd say that growth is slowing down because our infrastructure is stuck in the tarpit of failed deregulation. I just checked yesterday, and in Germany you can get a broadband connection approximately equivalent to one for which I'd have to pay $50/mo., for only €9/mo. In Sweden it seems regular people can get 100MBit connections to their homes at reasonable prices.
Maybe nobody else is jumping to get on the Internet because it's not getting any cheaper and it's not getting any better. $40-$50/mo. is a lot to pay for a lot of people. The giant media/telecom conglomerates certainly aren't making anything any better.