Slashdot Mirror
Analysts React to PS3 Delay
GameDailyBiz has a piece looking at some professional analyst opinion on what the PS3 delay means for Sony. From the article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama cautioned, however, that we shouldn't take the global launch for granted as there are still many hurdles. '[Sony] still has a number of obstacles to surmount before it can achieve a simultaneous global launch of PS3 in November. We will need to keep close tabs on whether any further delays emerge because postponing the launch will worsen the company's competitive position,' he said in a research note."
* 1,500,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
* 500,000 polygons per second, textured
Playstation, reality:
* 360,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
* 180,000 polygons per second, textured
Playstation 2, promised:
* 66,000,000 polygons per second
Playstation 2, reality:
* 7,000,000 polygons per second
Meanwhile, those who are honest and try not to overpromise get screwed up the pooper:
Dreamcast, promised:
* 3,000,000 polygons per second
Dreamcast, reality:
* 5,000,000 polygons per second
Circumcision is child abuse.
Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.
Repeat after me: there is no US delay. This is a delay in Japan.
Halo 3 in Japan will sell somewhere between four and six copies. So I doubt Sony is any more worried about this today than they were yesterday.
The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year." The only region to get an actual launch period was Japan, which was going to be "spring" of 2006. Given that, you can extrapolate from the launches of the PS1 and PS2 (which had Japan/US launches that were staggered by nearly a year in the PS1's case and around 8 months in the PS2's case) that the PS3 was probably going to arrive here before Christmas, but not much before. Most people had expected Thanksgiving or thereabouts.
But the bottom line is you can't "delay" something that has never had a launch date to begin with, or even a launch month. Nothing more specific than 2006 was ever announced for the US before today. The delay affects Japan and Japan alone, so any talk of MS taking advantage of the situation is misguided. MS can no more exploit the situation as it exists today than they could exploit the situation that existed 3 weeks ago, because that situation hasn't changed in the west.
My only guess about how all this confusion is happening even among supposedly highly-paid analysts is that somehow either a simultaneous launch had always been assumed (because, you know, MS did it) or some of these guys just simply failed to differentiate between regions. Not all of these guys are experienced enough to have been dealing with the game industry even back when the PS2 was launched. These analysts often deal with many different industries and they're not always as on top of things as it seems.
The PS3:
1) Has been pushed back two to three months in Japan
2) Has the same schedule it always had in the US
3) Has been moved forward in Europe
Volume production of Cell chips for the PS3 is underway along with the RSX rasterizer for the system. Along with the BluRay drives, Sony is in the process of building up the components to be ready to start assembling them into final PS3 units in the May/June timeframe.
Apparently they are on track to have enough units to ship about 500k systems to Japan in June but have decided to go for a simultaneous launch in all three territories in November with millions of units.
Millions of European gamers are breaking open the champagne...
Since the reason for Sony pushing back the Japan launch is software related to the BluRay AACS stuff, having enough hardware isn't going to be a problem. Demand will be absolutely crazy of course in November and December, but there will be a steady stream of PS3s coming out Sony each month - somewhere in the million or so a month.
Can't wait for Nintendo to take their turn next.
In case anyone is curious, a list of the best selling console games of all-time is here.
Heres some entries on the list of the Top 20:
1. Super Mario Bros. 3 (NES - 17.28 million)
2. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PS2 - 12 million)
4. Super Mario 64 (N64 - 11.62 million)
6. Gran Turismo (PS1 - 10.5 million)
7. Super Mario All-Stars (SNES - 10.5 million)
15. Halo 2 (Xbox - 7 million)