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Sony vs. Microsoft, Tortoise vs. Hare
Carl Bialik from WSJ writes "Was Microsoft smart to rush out the Xbox 360 or is Sony smarter to wait and load PlayStation 3 with the latest technology? The Wall Street Journal analyzes the opposing camps' strategies; the stakes are high, as 'the Xbox group has lost billions of dollars since its start five years ago and will continue to lose money if Sony trounces Microsoft.' Several expected Microsoft announcements today, besides 'Halo 3', are meant to deliver the message that the Xbox's head-start was an advantage: 'Microsoft will also demonstrate ways for mobile phones to link with its Xbox Live service, which allows Xbox 360 users to play games with each other over the Internet. Executives will also announce new games for the Xbox Live service and are negotiating a partnership to build a "massively multiplayer" game for Live that allows thousands of people to play each other over the Internet, say people familiar with the company's plans.'"
I prefer talking about this generation as the Tortiose vs. the Hare vs. the Alien (as was used in another article). Personally I'm rooting for Alien (Nintendo) and so are most of my gamer friends even though we're skeptical about all of the companies chances.
Microsoft: It has little to no chance to make an impact in Japan and has yet to make that big of an impact in North America or Europe (and don't say this is because of shortages, if there were serious shortages you'd see sustained $1000 systems on eBay and you wouldn't find them in stores anywhere).
Sony: Sony is producing a multimedia powerhouse with some (stolen) unconventional input; as I've argued before (when people complained about the Wii's one handed controller) you can't do much with 6 axis control when your hands are together (try it, hold a book and rotate it in as many ways as you can, now try with a remote control) so I doubt the added features will be of much use. The big problem with the PS3 (in my opinion) is the Price; at $500 and $600 you're looking at 3 price cuts, and three years (if you average a price cut of $100 per year, which is pretty typical) before your average "casual" gamer is willing to buy your system.
Nintendo: Nintendo's biggest hurdle is whether the public will 'get-it'. Gamers in general understand what Nintendo is trying to do, and are either excited or at least happy that someone is trying something; I'm not so sure the Madden playing public will understand though. If you play 2-4 hours a week, and buy a game every couple of months are you going to be tired of the same crap that is being produced year after year? You can ask the same question of movies, are you better of making movies with greater acting/plot/direction or should you pack in as much special effects?
I have to hand it to MS this time around. While the initial Xbox was 'meh', the 360, launched almost a full year ahead of Sony, seems to me to be on equal footing with them this time around. Sure, the PS3 will have built in Blu-Ray (which IMO Sony has made a HUGE gamble on it being the proprietary format for next gen DVD), and a few other bells and whistles, it really has nothing a full year later then what you can't get with the 360. (Well, besides some half ass motion sensor controller thing...which, I can honestly say, I really am not that excited about).
Why I really think that the 360 will take this round in the console wars is going to be the Live service. Playing a game on the computer, see a bud come online on his 360, invite him to play with you? That is cool.
I was planning on buying the other 2 systems when they come out(my guilty pleasure, gaming. I own/ed pretty much all the consoles at one point or another), as my son and wife will love to play the Nintendo, and I am intrigued by the controller. But, with the outrageous price point of the PS3, and not alot of exclusive games that are must plays on the PS3 (actually... I can't think of one that I would want to play), there will be one more system on the shelves this holiday for someone else.
The sky above the port was the color of television, tuned to a dead channel...
You are out of your mind if you think there is going to be a 360 price drop before they start to turn a profit on it. The only way that happens is if Microsoft perceives that they are losing the market share battle in a horrible way.
I also wouldn't be shocked by Nintendo announcing a $199 price tag for their offering.
I also think that within the price range you're talking about, history has shown they won't make much of a difference. After all, the PS2 cost $100 more than the Dreamcast and the Gamecube at launch, and $100 isn't what it used to be back in 1999/2000. The platform exclusive titles will, as always, be the deciding factor, and we won't know which of the three will have what yet.
What parents are willing to spend only has limited effect too. If Junior asks for a Playstation 3, Mom and Dad don't go to the store and buy an Xbox 360 because it's cheaper. They buy the PS3, or they tell the kid it's too expensive. They certainly don't spend $300 on something the kid didn't ask for.
Right now I can say why I'm looking forward to a 360 (right in time for the Christmas price drop) and eventually a Wii. Both MS and Nintendo seem to have a point, or a reason for doing what they're doing, whereas the PS3 seems very much like a case of 'I'll have what they're having'.
The Wii is clearly trying to try something completely new in terms of controllers. I mean, the thing is weird. New gameplay, new options, new styles. All good.
The 360 seems predicated on networking. Live is the best thing MS has going for that thing. They're getting a new influx of tiny designers coming up with weird and different things, possibly entering the market under the threshold of price. I blanch at coughing up $50 for a game, but hey, $5 isn't too bad. It's a heck of a lot easier to rationalize, that's for sure.
Sony doesn't seem to have a reason, other than Blue Ray, and that's not compelling to me. I admit I may not be their target audience, so hey. The controller seems like a pale imitation of the Wii and their networking setup isn't Live, not yet and perhaps not ever.
I know if I get a Wii, I'll have new game play. I know if I get a 360 I'll get new networking options on my console. I know if I get a 360, I'll have to buy a whole bunch of movies over again. Eh.