Slashdot Mirror
Japanese Gamers' Post-E3 Reversal
Castar writes "Prior to E3, Famitsu readers were interested in the PS3, and Final Fantasy. Post E3, while there's still some excitement over Final Fantasy, they seem to be very interested in the Wii, and concerned about the PS3's high price. It certainly seems that in Japan, at least, Nintendo and Sony's fortunes have reversed. Will this hold through the launch and the succeeding years?" From the article: "Nearly 70% of readers said they are most looking forward to Wii. 21% voted for PlayStation 3, while the others voted for systems already released. 88.4% of readers believe PlayStation 3 is too expensive, while 10% believe it's 'about right'."
Besides, I think Sony has other irons in the fire.
One DRM to rule them all
One platform to find them
One format to bring them all
and in the darkness, bind them
Then there's the Satan deal...
As of yet, the 360 isn't selling that well in Japan, and there's little in the future that indicates that will change (regardless of "Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics), though it probably won't be a total wash as the Xbox was in Japan.
However, the 360 continues to do well in United States, though my friends in Europe seem to think that it's doing "OK, but not great" out there.
So I wonder if world wide domination will go to the Wii by default. Take the recent "The Wii is a great secondary system" by both Sony and Microsoft execs, and the recent polls that show that most console gamers are planning on buying the Wii.
Now, look at how Japan versus US versus Europe may go. I imagine the PS3 will still do well in Japan (though not as stellar as the PS2) because of the "big names" like "Final Fantasy" and "Dragon Quest". But if the DS versus PSP is any indication with recent polls, Japanese consumers are more willing to give Nintendo another shot at life. So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):
PS3: 50%
Wii: 40%
360: 10%
Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.
Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:
360: 40%
PS3: 30%
Wii: 30%
So just off of initial console sales alone, the Wii could win. The situation drastically changes when you consider Wii sales as a secondary console - ie: if a majority of homes with a PS3 buy a second console, it may be a Wii, and the same with the 360.
There are several things that may throw this off, of course - perhaps the majority of 360 owners don't want to buy a Wii because "I'm a 1337 gamer no doesn't like kids games n00b!" or something, but so far, Nintendo has to feel pretty good. As long as they don't screw it up in the next six months, and as long as (unlike Microsoft's launch) they have plenty of units at launch (if anything, they should *overproduce* as much as they can to make sure that everybody who wants a Wii can get one). If the number pan out, then developers might find themselves looking at the Wii for sheer number of sales alone, let alone the unique controller.
Then again, these numbers are all pulled out of my ass anyway, so who knows? The next year should be rather interesting for gamers.
52 Weeks, 52 Religions with John Hummel
When 88.4% of the polled market says the price is too high maybe you should listen. This is extremely true in Japan, where while the younger generation still has money to burn, they aren't going out and buying things that cost $600 not while they are paying sometimes almost $1000/month for that one bedroom appartment.
Hell, when I went in March to see my girlfriend, the only person I ever saw with a PSP was her brother. His friends said they wanted to get one, but that it was too expensive.
One of the main reasons I own a PS2 is for Japanese RPGs - plain and simple, it is where most of the developers are. The primary reason? The prolific amount of PS2s in the wild in Japan.
Fast forward to 2007/2008. IF the price of the PS3 negatively impacts its adoption rate in Japan, and IF the price and novelty of the Wii positively impacts its adoption rate in Japan, suddenly I could see a lot of development houses making the following chocies - ignore the PS3 and continue working on PS2 titles (systems seem to last longer in terms of game releases in Japan than they do in the US), or develop Wii titles. The Wii control scheme would likely work well with menu driven (point-and-click) interfaces.
Of course, there are some big ifs there, and of course big dev houses like Square-Enix will likely stick with the PS3 for their primary platform, but polls like the one for this article do lead me to believe such a shift is not all together impossible.
As a long time gamer I have never owned a console. I have always followed the matra: "Anything your console can do, my PC can do better". So, yet again, my PC is already out-performing the Xbox and Sony offers nothing but more beef -- and my PC will just pack on a few more pounds itself. But the Wii... wow. This thing touches on something that the new Hollywood-like gaming industry has fogotten. Hardware specs and graphics do not make a game... any more than a pile of icing makes a cake. The Wii, imho, is tapping back into the idea of "gaming" and then taking it in its logical direction (which is not better rendering speeds). For the first time ever, I will be buying a console system. I finally see a system that says "I am a gamer" and is backed by a company which, in taking such a risk, is making obvious its understanding of gaming. The view from here is that the Wii will be a helluvalotta fun. Sony and Microsoft, well you can kiss my PC's shiny metal ass.
If the past few months have shown us anything about Japan, it's that they dig innovation. Do you know what the recently surpassed #2 selling video game of all time for the first day is in Japan? Brain Age. That's right, the simple, yet highly addictive game that could have been done by one programmer in a few months sold 415,000 copies in Japan on the first day.
What's this tell us? That the Japanese are ready for innovations in games. And honestly, the only system so far to show any innovation is the Wii. The 360 is going to flop in Japan. The PS3 in my opinion is just offering the same games that only look prettier.
Actually I think Nintendo has had the right idea all along. For the life of me I can not understand why the GameCube wasn't a bigger hit. It seems to match the PS/2 in graphics. Games like Resident Evil look pretty good on the GC. My guess is that the Nintendo was still dealing with the fall out from the N64 errors. Nintendo was betting that the faster load time of the cartridge would trump the cinematics and cheaper media of the CD-ROM.
The real truth is, only time will tell. In my office a lot more people are going to buy the Wii than the PS/3. From that data it looks to me as if Nintendo has a winner on it's hands.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
It's just the games library that meant the GC wasn't as successful. The PS2 was out earlier, had better marketing and better licensing terms (AFAIK). It annoys me that the PS2 did so well, because it is underpowered, forcing games to rely on FMV, has a poor controller and long load times. But if I want to play Guitar Hero, Ico, Katamari, God of War etc I have to own one.
There's no way I'm buying a PS3, though.