Japanese Gamers' Post-E3 Reversal

Castar writes "Prior to E3, Famitsu readers were interested in the PS3, and Final Fantasy. Post E3, while there's still some excitement over Final Fantasy, they seem to be very interested in the Wii, and concerned about the PS3's high price. It certainly seems that in Japan, at least, Nintendo and Sony's fortunes have reversed. Will this hold through the launch and the succeeding years?" From the article: "Nearly 70% of readers said they are most looking forward to Wii. 21% voted for PlayStation 3, while the others voted for systems already released. 88.4% of readers believe PlayStation 3 is too expensive, while 10% believe it's 'about right'."

Comments

Re:Fortunes reversed?

[jizziknight]

What? And Nintendo doesn't?

stupid readers

[Mr.Dippy]

88.4% of readers believe PlayStation 3 is too expensive, while 10% believe it's 'about right'. and 1.6% of the readers think that Sony should sell the PS3 for $1200?

Re:stupid readers

[Odin_Tiger]

I'm guessing that the remainder is margin of error / did not respond.

Re:stupid readers

[KDR_11k]

No, there actually was a "too cheap" option.

Re:stupid readers

[rishistar]

Don't you know that Sony employs 1.6% of the Japanese population?!

Re:stupid readers

[grammar fascist]

... and 1.6% of the readers think that Sony should sell the PS3 for $1200?

They must have bought that, "It really is cheap when you think about it really hard in exactly the right twisted way" line.

Really, I can't imagine anybody saying it's not expensive enough. "There's no way I'm putting a hundred thousand down on that Volkswagon Beetle! Can you make it two hundred thousand?"

Re:Fortunes reversed?

[I Like Pudding]

Besides, I think Sony has other irons in the fire.

One DRM to rule them all
One platform to find them
One format to bring them all
and in the darkness, bind them

Then there's the Satan deal...

Sony was foolish...

[tonywong]

I'd say retarded, but I guess they just weren't creative enough.

If they really wanted to capitalize on making a splash, they should have announced that retail prices were going to be marginally higher than the 360, but they could have said that they were going to use eBay for charity auctions on the initial runs, donating half of the money towards a charity of winner's designation, etc. eBay would have paid them big money for this and Sony would have made huge gains in publicity and a feeding frenzy would make the retail price look absolutely cheap in comparison.

Just my 2 cents.

Yes fortunes did reverse

[technoextreme]

Uh, neither product has shipped.
Besides, I think Sony has other irons in the fire.

Yes but I remember someone mentioning on Slashdot that a poll just like this was conducted before the PS3 price announce in Japan and the Playstation 3 came out on top. Now the polls say something else differnt.

I'm wondering at a market skism

[Dark Paladin]

As of yet, the 360 isn't selling that well in Japan, and there's little in the future that indicates that will change (regardless of "Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics), though it probably won't be a total wash as the Xbox was in Japan.

However, the 360 continues to do well in United States, though my friends in Europe seem to think that it's doing "OK, but not great" out there.

So I wonder if world wide domination will go to the Wii by default. Take the recent "The Wii is a great secondary system" by both Sony and Microsoft execs, and the recent polls that show that most console gamers are planning on buying the Wii.

Now, look at how Japan versus US versus Europe may go. I imagine the PS3 will still do well in Japan (though not as stellar as the PS2) because of the "big names" like "Final Fantasy" and "Dragon Quest". But if the DS versus PSP is any indication with recent polls, Japanese consumers are more willing to give Nintendo another shot at life. So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):

PS3: 50%
Wii: 40%
360: 10%

Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.

Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:

360: 40%
PS3: 30%
Wii: 30%

So just off of initial console sales alone, the Wii could win. The situation drastically changes when you consider Wii sales as a secondary console - ie: if a majority of homes with a PS3 buy a second console, it may be a Wii, and the same with the 360.

There are several things that may throw this off, of course - perhaps the majority of 360 owners don't want to buy a Wii because "I'm a 1337 gamer no doesn't like kids games n00b!" or something, but so far, Nintendo has to feel pretty good. As long as they don't screw it up in the next six months, and as long as (unlike Microsoft's launch) they have plenty of units at launch (if anything, they should *overproduce* as much as they can to make sure that everybody who wants a Wii can get one). If the number pan out, then developers might find themselves looking at the Wii for sheer number of sales alone, let alone the unique controller.

Then again, these numbers are all pulled out of my ass anyway, so who knows? The next year should be rather interesting for gamers.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

"(unlike Microsoft's launch) they have plenty of units at launch (if anything, they should *overproduce* as much as they can to make sure that everybody who wants a Wii can get one)."

You think that Microsoft chose how many 360s to manufacture for the launch and that once that number was reached, factory floors went quiet? Console shortages are caused by the manufacturer not being able to get them out the door fast enough, not manufacturers trying to hedge their bets and only producing a limited number.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[ObsessiveMathsFreak]

As of yet, the 360 isn't selling that well in Japan, and there's little in the future that indicates that will change (regardless of "Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics)

I was personally insulted by DOA: Beath Volleyball. Insulted. As far as I was concerned, it was insulting to me personally, as a long time game player to have that kind of tripe lauded as a game of the future. If I wanted softcore pornography, I'd buy one of those 3 rags at the newsstand. If I wanted a volleyball game, I'd probably have to kill myself.

Personally, I think a lot of people simply laughed at the game and moved on. I saw so many pre-owned copies after the first week that I knew my suspicions had been confirmed. The games only selling point was titillation, and that's not enough for a 60 game. Not by a long shot.

I think game players need to be given more credit. They're not all slavering idiots. Many crave quality, and simply are not getting it these days. This is due simply to the fact that the too many buy games like DOA, and sell them off after the first week to a retail industry hungry for Pre-owned titles, thus creating a false demand for such titles when in reality, few are avidly interested. This drags down the quality of games as a whole.

Needless to say, no one was too willing to purchace the Beath Volleyball pre-owned copies.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[Dark Paladin]

I don't think that was what I was intimating - my criticism is that if MS did not have enough console sales for initial launch, perhaps they should have waited another 5-6 months (and, seeing the Japanese sales, perhaps those were consoles better held in reserve for the US market). I don't think MS stopped making 360's - they were too impatient to wait until they had "enough" to at least meet the preorders!

My bet is the Nintendo has not given a specific date as of yet in the hopes of building up enough stock, because, to turn a Miyamoto phrase, "A delayed launch may yet be good. A bad launch is bad forever."

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[soulhuntre]

" was personally insulted by DOA: Beath Volleyball. Insulted. As far as I was concerned, it was insulting to me personally"

You seriously need to relax. It's a big world out there, and almost none of it cares about you personally at all.

I don't recall anyone saying DOA was "the game of the future". It's a game in a market of games. Some like it, some don't. If you don't then don't buy it.

So simple.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[argStyopa]

Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics

So...has this been announced yet?

I'm sorry, did you say something else too?

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

"I don't think that was what I was intimating - my criticism is that if MS did not have enough console sales for initial launch, perhaps they should have waited another 5-6 months (and, seeing the Japanese sales, perhaps those were consoles better held in reserve for the US market). I don't think MS stopped making 360's - they were too impatient to wait until they had "enough" to at least meet the preorders!"

You said Nintendo should "overproduce." How exactly do you believe that is to be done? Console manufacturers don't stop making consoles at any point before launch day. If you are merely suggesting that Nintendo moves the launch date back to have a higher volume, then "overproduce" is the wrong word for it.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[Dark Paladin]

Overproduce: produce more then they believe there is a market for. If they look at the pre-orders and have enough to meet those, then they should "overproduce" and ensure there's enough for that and more.

I think you're doing a little bit of hair splitting here - I'm recommending that Nintendo make far more consoles than they think they may have to meet initial demand (aka - overproduce). You seem to think that I'm inferring that they just stop making consoles at a certain point, which I am not. I don't see why you are confused about this issue.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

"I don't see why you are confused about this issue."

It couldn't be that you're using language that isn't clear, could it? No, of course not. I must be an idiot for not being able to interpret exactly what you are trying to say! Yes yes, that's it!! Brilliant.

"Overproduce: produce more then they believe there is a market for. If they look at the pre-orders and have enough to meet those, then they should "overproduce" and ensure there's enough for that and more."

But the manufacturer does not stop manufacturing at any point before release date so the concept of overproduction is foolish in this context. First of all, the number of preorders varies from day to day. Perhaps you don't know anything about how industrial manufacturing works but when your local EB gets your signature on a piece of paper, they don't ring up Nintendo and let them know they'll need one more. It's much larger than all that. Second of all, the number of preordered machines is not going to come anywhere close to the number of demanded units on launch day. It goes without saying that Nintendo would produce more than were preordered. Most people didn't preorder 360s. That is not an accurate gauge of demand. The fact that EB couldn't meet preorders merely means that units were shipped to Walmart and Circuit City - where they were sold. Your belief that the preorder is a great gauge of market demand is flawed.

"I think you're doing a little bit of hair splitting here - I'm recommending that Nintendo make far more consoles than they think they may have to meet initial demand (aka - overproduce)."

Again, how you are suggesting demand is gauged is completely flawed. Preorders are a poor metric to use here since so many won't preorder but still want one. Let's play a game and assume Nintendo is going to use your great preorder figure to determine when to release the console. (Since they can only produce X number of units in a day - which is completely unrelated to demand.) What if 20 million are preordered? Should they delay past the Christmas buying season to satisfy your horribly ill-thought release position? Of course not. Next, what if they've met The Great Preorder Number that you propose and are ready to go and announce the launch for a week later - SUDDENLY - 5 million more preorders come on. Should they then move the release date so that they can get 10 million units manufactured? That would be really smart. No, I am afraid that you are wrong. There is no concept of overproduction in this realm at launch. A company sets a release date, advertises it, and makes as many units as possible in the given time frame. Don't be snide in any future replies or I will refuse to educate you further.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[Corbu Mulak]

I love that this has been modded Interesting.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[hkmwbz]

Your numbers don't match what you are saying. If "most console gamers are planning on buying the Wii", then the Wii will win (sell more consoles than the others). Judging by how "everyone" is bashing Sony, being indifferent to Microsoft, and praising Nintendo, I think the Wii will dominate all markets this time around.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[Dark Paladin]

I think you're being a little too sensitive about this.

Take a breath. There we go. Calm? OK. Good.

1. I am calling Microsoft's console launch bad. Now, I'm not saying that you need a hard number to justify sales - but let's face it: Microsoft simply did not have enough units to meet the semblance of demand. In their case, a 6 month wait would have:

a) Made sure that they had plenty of units for the US launch for the initial purchase period
b) For the Japan launch, given more time for more Japanese-centric games (RPGs, rhythm, etc) to come into play. (The fact that we're almost at 1 year now, and the only RPG for the 360 worth people's time is Oblivion, tells us they haven't done their research in Japan *still*. Next year may be different, but by then people will be looking at their shiny new PS3's with "Final Fantasy XIII and Wii's with their "Super Smash Brothers".)

2. If Nintendo is able to look at the data trends, naturally they don't have access to "pre-order numbers" the day they occur. But if they have 1 million units right this second, and they plan a worldwide launch, I think we can both agree that is not nearly enough. The goal isn't just to "be the first to market", but "to so overwhelmingly penetrate the market as to give no mistake to gamers and developers where they should be looking".

I'm willing to bet that Nintendo could launch the Wii right this second, if they so wanted to, but they would find themselves in position unable to provide enough units for demand. The problem with that? If a person who wants a Wii can't get one, they will start looking at the other consoles and wonder if they are worth the money instead. So instead, they wait a few more months until their supply is sufficient to meet demand. If they are wrong - so be it, but at least it won't be wrong because they rushed into it.

Therefore, it is in Nintendo's best interest - especially if they launch before the PS3 - to make sure that there is no way possible for anyone who wants a Wii not to get one. If there's a spare $300 (after cost of Wii + games) out there not being spent, that's another Wii sale that might not happen when the PS3 comes out. So rather than launch now, they wait a little bit longer. Not forever, as you seem to think I am suggesting: just long enough, which they appear to have already planned for.

So, I'm willing to bet that Nintendo will "overproduce". They have a number in mind, and it's probably a far greater number that just what they think will meet the initial market rush. They looked ahead and said "OK, Microsoft moved X number of 360s in X months. Let's assume we'll sell that many that week. We probably won't come close to that number, but let's make far more than we think we will actually sell at first blush - just in case. We'll take a short term loss off of this, but if the risk pays off, we'll be doing great. And if we made too many, we can always have the factories slow down for a bit while we reduce inventory."

The reason why they they should make so many? Flood the market with Wii's. Make it so if somebody sells it on eBay, they aren't going to get anything more than the market price, not some overhyped "You won't get one for 6 months if you don't buy it here" sale. Let everybody who wants to play it play it. Have a huge release-date launch of games that include your heaviest hitters so that if someone can only buy 1 game at Wii launch, they will come back in 2 weeks and spend their money on another Wii game.

I am sorry if I was not clear on this. I'm also sorry that you feel the need to get offended over something that really doesn't matter. So, let's all calm down, say "You know, we won't know for another six months anyway", and call it done.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[Babbster]

I don't recall anyone saying DOA was "the game of the future". It's a game in a market of games. Some like it, some don't. If you don't then don't buy it.

Not only was that kind of thing not said, but nothing similar was even said by Itagaki-san, Team Ninja's leader and publicity hound. The game was designed first as "fan service" and second to be silly and relaxing. It succeeded on both counts and, despite GP's perception about how much "credit" should be given to gamers, it sold extremely well (had it been on PS2, I think it would have sold GTA-like numbers).

Personally, I bought it and still occasionally take it out to play because it really does make me laugh. It's like watching a light comedy when I'm just not in the mood for anything heavy and involved. After seeing the video of its sequel coming out early next year, I'll be on board for that one, too, because I was laughing hard at seeing the team take the silliness to the next level.

I think one of the reasons videogames are so successful in Japan is that they seem to have a much wider variety of videogames catering to a much wider variety of tastes. In fact, it looks like the next iteration of DOA Xtreme is taking some elements from a Japanese PS2 game I saw scenes from on X-Play (in their "weird" games segment, though I don't remember the name of the game). DOAX and its ilk should be embraced by gamers at large even if they don't want to play the games. The genre needs to expand to include more than just the "hardcore," something that Nintendo in particular is banking on.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[justchris]

To be fair, his numbers were for first purchased console. Some people will purchase a PS3/360 initially, then purchase a Wii a year or so later when they've recovered funds from their previous major expenditure. His numbers were not a final estimate, but an initial estimate of what we're most likely to see within the first 6 months of the two new consoles releases.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[hkmwbz]

That doesn't change the relevance of my comment. From what I can tell, people are primarily getting a Wii, and those who aren't are getting something else and Wii.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

Blah blah - you're still missing the point. Your comment was vapid and added no value to the discussion. All you were basically saying was that Nintendo should make a lot of Wii's. Yes, Nintendo should. They should have as much stock on hand as possible on launch day. That's not insightful.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

His numbers are also completely fabricated and not based on any reality of the marketplace. He merely pulled them out of thin air.

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[AppleJuice]

I think slashdot needs another classification; "friend" and "foe" aren't cutting it. I want to be able to mark someone as "douchebag".

Re:I'm wondering at a market skism

[justchris]

Hold on, I hardly think now is the time to go bringing logic and reality into this conversation.

Ouch

[wilgibson]

When 88.4% of the polled market says the price is too high maybe you should listen. This is extremely true in Japan, where while the younger generation still has money to burn, they aren't going out and buying things that cost $600 not while they are paying sometimes almost $1000/month for that one bedroom appartment.

Hell, when I went in March to see my girlfriend, the only person I ever saw with a PSP was her brother. His friends said they wanted to get one, but that it was too expensive.

Re:Ouch

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm not sure if this demonstrates that the price is too high for the PS3 as much as it shows that there is no compelling reason to own a PS3 and the price is too high.

Seriously, when you compare the Wii and the PS3 what you notice is that practically every game on the Wii looks interesting enough to make you want to (at least) try it whereas every game on the PS3 seems like you've played the exact same game before; also the Wii is releasing many of their largest franchises (Metriod, Zelda, Mario, Smash Bros.) within the first 9 months, where the PS3 has none of it's major titles due out before next E3.

Why would you be interested in a $600 game machine which has no interesting games?

Re:Ouch

[ClamIAm]

I think you raise a good point here. Even if the PSP cost the same as a DS, I'd still get the DS, mostly because there's a lot of cool games I'd like to play. If the PSP cost 10 bucks, I might get one, but that doesn't mean I have a good reason to.

Re:Ouch

[mausmalone]

Hell, when I went in March to see my girlfriend, the only person I ever saw with a PSP was her brother. His friends said they wanted to get one, but that it was too expensive.

While antecdotal, that's a great example. Most friends that I have who want a PS3 are angry about the price. Why angry? Because they really want a PS3, but they can't even remotely afford one.

I tell them they should either look into getting a Wii, or stow their money until the games they want most come out (like MGS4). If they're lucky, they'll see a PS3 price break by then (but that's probably not likely unless MGS4 is delayed a lot).

Re:Ouch

[nutshell42]

When 88.4% of the polled market says the price is too high maybe you should listen.

Not if you sold 25 million units of your last console and have no way of selling more than about 2 million units of your new one in the first six months. about 10% said the price was ok, plus at least I have lots of stuff that I'd say was too expensive but that I've bought anyway so I'd say Sony knew what they're doing.

The only reason for Sony to sell the PS3 at a lower price the first few months would have been to keep people from buying a 360. And I really thought they would do just that (My guess was they'd sell for $399 or $449 at most). But apparently they concluded demand would outstrip supply of the 360 at least during the holiday season and the first few months of '07 no matter what and decided to milk their early adopters instead (I just had a deja vu, or deja written. I don't know if it was on /. though =). Most 360s sold over the first months sold for more than $400, there were few core systems, lots of consoles on ebay and the rest sold in ridiculous bundles, so there definitely is a bunch of people ready to pay more than $400 for a console.

But if Sony doesn't lower the price in '07, and lower it more than MS the price of the 360, they'll have a real problem.

Personally, I won't buy a Wii unless they suddenly unveil a must-have game that blows away everything I've ever seen. I know a couple of guys who'll probably buy one and that's enough for me.

Neither the Xbox nor the 360 has an exclusive title that I'm really interested in, most of it seems to be EA Sports or PC games and I got a PC for those (or similar games). Bioshock could change that though.

The PS3 has the most interesting games (MGS4, Virtua Fighter 5, Assassin's Creed) but there's no way I'm gonna pay more than $300 for a console (and I won't buy a console that doesn't have at least 2 must-buy titles, so we're at 300+60+60+40=460 -40 for an additional controller- anyway), so it'll have to go through a number of price cuts until they see my money

RPG Shift

[ureshii_akuma]

While it is all speculation, and we will have to wait 'till the sytems are out a while to know if there is a change in the market, I have been wondering if the price of the PS2 combined with the input device of the Wii might mean we see a shift back to Nintendo as the primary Japanese RPG / SRPG platform.

One of the main reasons I own a PS2 is for Japanese RPGs - plain and simple, it is where most of the developers are. The primary reason? The prolific amount of PS2s in the wild in Japan.

Fast forward to 2007/2008. IF the price of the PS3 negatively impacts its adoption rate in Japan, and IF the price and novelty of the Wii positively impacts its adoption rate in Japan, suddenly I could see a lot of development houses making the following chocies - ignore the PS3 and continue working on PS2 titles (systems seem to last longer in terms of game releases in Japan than they do in the US), or develop Wii titles. The Wii control scheme would likely work well with menu driven (point-and-click) interfaces.

Of course, there are some big ifs there, and of course big dev houses like Square-Enix will likely stick with the PS3 for their primary platform, but polls like the one for this article do lead me to believe such a shift is not all together impossible.

Re:RPG Shift

[AuMatar]

I'd think the big dev houses will switch first- they have the money to hire devs to port the game. Of course, Sony will shove money at them to stay exclusive, especially Square. It was FF7 being PS exclusive that kicked the original playstation into gear.

Re:RPG Shift

[assassingod]

Square-Enix have confirmed 2 Final Fantasy titles for Nintendo, Crystal Chronicles for the DS and Wii. They have also stated they want to diverse into marketing their games over a series of platforms, so I wouldn't be surprised if they released more Final Fantasy games for Nintendo and Microsoft (They are already porting the old games to Nintendo, FFIII for the DS and FFI-VI for GBA) As for popularity of the Wii in the UK, I don't feel it will be appreciated as much as it should be, however I feel enough fanboys will convince people. I am getting one, as is my Girlfriend and her brothers. Nintendo just need to let more people know about it.

Re:RPG Shift

[Dance_Dance_Karnov]

just to clarify, the FF3 on the DS isn't a 'port' it is a complete remake.

I think you are under estimating the WII

[LWATCDR]

I would bet that a good number of 360 and PS3 owners will also get a Wii in the US.
I think that in total numbers sold the Wii could end up being the most popular console.
But only time will tell.

Re:I think you are under estimating the WII

[LWATCDR]

Actually I think Nintendo has had the right idea all along. For the life of me I can not understand why the GameCube wasn't a bigger hit. It seems to match the PS/2 in graphics. Games like Resident Evil look pretty good on the GC. My guess is that the Nintendo was still dealing with the fall out from the N64 errors. Nintendo was betting that the faster load time of the cartridge would trump the cinematics and cheaper media of the CD-ROM.
The real truth is, only time will tell. In my office a lot more people are going to buy the Wii than the PS/3. From that data it looks to me as if Nintendo has a winner on it's hands.

Re:I think you are under estimating the WII

[BenjyD]

It's just the games library that meant the GC wasn't as successful. The PS2 was out earlier, had better marketing and better licensing terms (AFAIK). It annoys me that the PS2 did so well, because it is underpowered, forcing games to rely on FMV, has a poor controller and long load times. But if I want to play Guitar Hero, Ico, Katamari, God of War etc I have to own one.
There's no way I'm buying a PS3, though.

Wondering about the market schism and skew

[WillAffleckUW]

So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):

PS3: 50%
Wii: 40%
360: 10%

Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.

Hmmm, I think you're overestimating the PS3 portion in Japan, my guess (like yours, which you admitted was also pulled out of your ass) would be more like:

PS3: 35%
Wii: 55%
360: 10%

Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:

360: 40%
PS3: 30%
Wii: 30%


This I think will be:

US:
360: 40% (cheaper)
PS3: 20% (not cheaper)
Wii: 40%

Europe:
360: 30%
PS3: 20%
Wii: 50%

console size

[Anonymous Coward]

the japanese consumer is also well known for not liking large consoles - space is limited so their consoles gotta be smaller in nature.

the ps3 is pretty damn big, like xbox size, be interesting to see when the console is more visible if that'll deter the market even more.

i don't believe the wii is enough for a lot of gamers out there so they will end up choosing a 360 or a ps3. once ms gets their RPGs out (and there are more than a few lined up - all geared for that japanese market) - you might see the 360 market gain some movement in the far east. especially if the ps3 is a bit pricey, and in japan being viewed as pricey means your product is extremely pricey...

Conflicting reports?

[kyle (in stereo)]

I dont have any links myself, but I myself have seen one or two "post E3 reports" that revealed that Japanese gamers arnt all that concerned over the price of the PS3, or atleast unconcerned because the PS3 will be the system that their games will be on.

I really should get some links, but its nice to see such positive reflection on the Wii in Famitsu.

stupid polsters

[Sylver Dragon]

Na, 1.6% of readers were just dicking with the poll.

Notice how far down Halo 3 is in anticipated games

[WillAffleckUW]

In the article, notice how far down Halo 3 is rated for Anticipated Games - it's number 10 out of 10.

This bodes not well, since most of the games listed are Wii or cross-platform, meaning Nintend can pick up most of those players, or Sony, but the xBox will only sell to hentai fanboys looking for certain dimensional aspects of mammary gland physics (or lack thereof).

What I find interesting...

[kyle (in stereo)]

What if both the PS3 and 360 markets take this whole "Wii is a secondary console" thing to heart? Lets say that 25% of all 360 owners, and 25% of all PS3 owners decide to opt for the Wii as well as their console of choice?

Thats a pretty decent strategy. I dont know which console people own, but from my own experience it has been just one. Usually someone owns only an Xbox, PS2, or Gamecube, or if they own two it is the Xbox and the PS2.

Now if Nintendo has all of its fanboys buy the Wii, AND manage to get many more 360/PS3 adopters to buy it as well...

Looks pretty good to me.

earlymorningpost:-(

Re:Notice how far down Halo 3 is in anticipated ga

[EwokCommander]

You say it's number 10 of 10 of anticipated games, but you have to take into account that it's so far off. Look at the games that are coming out soon, in the very near future, and you see that the levels of anticipation are much higher. As the launch of Halo 3 nears, and more games that people are drooling over are released (gears of war, too human, etc.), you'll see it climb again. Personally, my most anticipated games are Too Human and The Darkness...

First Time Buyer

[Draracle]

As a long time gamer I have never owned a console. I have always followed the matra: "Anything your console can do, my PC can do better". So, yet again, my PC is already out-performing the Xbox and Sony offers nothing but more beef -- and my PC will just pack on a few more pounds itself. But the Wii... wow. This thing touches on something that the new Hollywood-like gaming industry has fogotten. Hardware specs and graphics do not make a game... any more than a pile of icing makes a cake. The Wii, imho, is tapping back into the idea of "gaming" and then taking it in its logical direction (which is not better rendering speeds). For the first time ever, I will be buying a console system. I finally see a system that says "I am a gamer" and is backed by a company which, in taking such a risk, is making obvious its understanding of gaming. The view from here is that the Wii will be a helluvalotta fun. Sony and Microsoft, well you can kiss my PC's shiny metal ass.

Re:First Time Buyer

[radish]

Somehow, I don't think Microsoft have any problem with you continuing to game on your PC. Unless you're some kind of Tux Racer fiend.

Re:First Time Buyer

[Goldsmith]

Hmmm... Price of a decent new gaming computer = Price of 360 + Price of PS3 (approximately)

You make a good argument.

Re:First Time Buyer

[mausmalone]

My last video card cost $180 and was obsolete before it arrived in the mail.

My gamecube cost $200 and lasted me for 5 years.

And I have something to play other than RTS, MMORPG, and FPS games.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[AuMatar]

You really think Nintendo is going to lose Europe that badly, when last time they beat the 360? I don't think there's a chance in hell. And I don't think with its price the PS3 will do nearly as well as you seem to- the top dog can lose. Nintendo proved that 2 rounds ago.

Japanese and Prices

[Nazmun]

They really expect to pay a large premium for products they believe are high quality. Thats why games can cost up to twice as much in japan.

Re:Notice how far down Halo 3 is in anticipated ga

[WillAffleckUW]

good point, but then, remember this is Japan, so I doubt there are quite so many waiting with baited breath for Halo 3, and from what I've seen, the list looks pretty close to what I'd expect if people have already made a mental shift towards the Wii, with some Japanese interest in the local Sony PS3.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[SetupWeasel]

Nintendo does well in Europe. They struggle with the UK, but they do well on the mainland.

Re:Notice how far down Halo 3 is in anticipated ga

[edwdig]

I'd say Halo 3 being #10 on the list is rather impressive. Japanese gamers don't like FPS games in general, and they don't like the Xbox.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[Anonymous Coward]

I am European, so I was guessing for the other territories. (note: living in Brussels, Belgium btw)

Little background:
In Europe, Nintendo is known as "the gameboy company".
Nintendo never had the base it had in the USA with the NES. Not that it flopped badly, but it was way too expensive compared to the Sega MasterSystem. The SNES did ok, N64 flopped. Finding a Gamecube or Gamecube games was really hard the last couple of years. At least were I live, only specialised shops carried Gamecube stuff.
Playstation is what put console gaming back in business after Sega released a heap of crappy games. As to the price, both PS1 and PS2 cost around 500 euros at launch, which is a lot. Somehow though, they managed to stick around long enough to capture the market. Massive adoption happened only after the price dropped.
XBox came too late. Microsoft also has its bad name going against it. Their marketing is over-the-top American, which goes against what most Europeans hold dear. Maybe they will learn this time?

Anyhow, market penetration of consoles depends mostly on pricing. Nintendo has an additional penalty that it has no brandname recognition. "A console from Nintendo? What's next, food from McDonalds?"

Polls and surveys

[SmallFurryCreature]

Anyone think that MS had plenty of studies done about the x-box (both) and their prospects in japan?

So far both bombed.

Did anyone think that Sony when it went into the console business had a change against the mighty nintendo?

No and they were very wrong.

People just don't seem to be very good at predicting what will happen with consoles.

The more predictions I see for the Wii being a smashhit the more I am feeling that Wii is building up a hype that it can't deliver. Those launch titles better be really good.

Re:Polls and surveys

[ClamIAm]

I think that in the video game industry, people try and draw logical conclusions without first really defining their starting point. Just thinking about this for a second, I put forth the assertion that there are two components gamers love: something significantly better than before, and something that is a new idea.

Now, there's a fine line between "new idea" and "gimmick". I think that Nintendo walks this line every day. When the DS and the Wii controller were both announced, people at first were pretty skeptical. Although we don't know about the Wii yet, the DS has managed to turn out some cool stuff. On the other hand, we have stuff like the GBA-to-Cube link and the U-Force controller. Personally, I think that as long as the Wiimote works well, it will do at least as well as the Gamecube did.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[insomaniac]

Can I ask where you live cause here in the netherlands nintendo has been quite popular since the NES the only flop to a point was the cube but everybody I know has been talking like mad about the Wii so I think the Wii will do great in the netherlands and I think europe as a whole.

Here is my take:

20%: PS3
30%: 360
50%: Wii

Re:Fortunes reversed?

[StarWreck]

I believe the actual quote is:

One platform to rule them all
One rootkit to find them
One device to bring them all
And in the DRM, bind them

Brain Age?

[blitzsieg]

If the past few months have shown us anything about Japan, it's that they dig innovation. Do you know what the recently surpassed #2 selling video game of all time for the first day is in Japan? Brain Age. That's right, the simple, yet highly addictive game that could have been done by one programmer in a few months sold 415,000 copies in Japan on the first day.

What's this tell us? That the Japanese are ready for innovations in games. And honestly, the only system so far to show any innovation is the Wii. The 360 is going to flop in Japan. The PS3 in my opinion is just offering the same games that only look prettier.

Re:Brain Age?

[tukkayoot]

The Japanese are also nuts over endless Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest sequels, so it isn't necessarily their gaming population that so craves innovation.

The way I'd interpret the success of Brain Age in Japan is the fondness of technology that their population has, even among non-gamers. This enables non-game electronic entertainment like Brain Age and Nintendogs to flourish there.

Re:Notice how far down Halo 3 is in anticipated ga

[KeiichiMorisato]

I'd say Halo 3 being #10 on the list is rather impressive. Japanese gamers don't like FPS games in general, and they don't like the Xbox

Not if there were only 10 choices on the survey to choose from.....

Sony is trying to heat two "irons" at once

[ianscot]

Besides, I think Sony has other irons in the fire.

No doubt Sony's got other fish to fry. That's the whole point. They tried to "leverage" their PS2 market dominance into a win for Blu-Ray in that standards war, and the resulting price of their new console is very likely going to damage them in both markets.

(Sony? Overextend itself in an aggressive attempt to impose a proprietary standard on the marketplace? The heck you say.)

Re:Yeah, but that's the thing

[hex0016]

I agree to an extent that what the PS3's price is won't matter until a few months past the launch date. The hardest of the hardcore gamers will wait in line for it just to say they got it launch day.

That said, your comment about MGS4 (which I'm definitely looking forward to myself since I'm a total fanboy) illustrates the problem: MGS4 and FF13 are the only titles I'm looking forward to for this machine. I suspect that this may be true for a lot of people (not necessarily the same titles, just that there are few titles people are looking forward to exclusive to PS3). That's a serious problem when your console's price point is more than people are used to paying.

FPS titles not popular in Japan? Well no duh.

[jchenx]

It's no surprise that Halo would end up last on that list for Japanese gamers. FPS titles are not nearly as popular there as it is here. It's like expressing shock that Mobile Suit Gundam ZZAlpha-Beta-Google is not a top 10 anticipated title in the US, or that the latest date simulator isn't in the top 5. Different cultures means different tastes in games and genres.

What is interesting is that an FPS game made the list at all, and that it's Halo 3. As one other poster mentioned, it depends on whether or not this was just a list of 10 games and Halo made last, or it was an open-ended list. Looking at the titles that did make the list, I have a feeling it's the latter. For example, why Bioshock (Wii) on that list, when it was the 360 version that was shown all over the place?

The thing that would be most interesting is to see what the Japanese think of the upcoming 360-exclusive RPGs coming to the system. Blue Dragon and Lost Oddyssey, in particular, come to mind. Those games will be the true test of how the platform succeeds in the Japanese market.

Re:FPS titles not popular in Japan? Well no duh.

[buffer-overflowed]

It's famitsu, what they're refering to as Bioshock, you probably better know as Resident Evil. It's not the spiritual heir to system shock coming out on the 360 and the PC(I think the PS3 as well). Nor is it Resident Evil 5 that's coming to the PS3/360. It's a different Resident Evil, as far as we know so far.

So that one is curious, since I didn't think any footage at all had been shown of that game, just an announcement.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[WillAffleckUW]

You really think Nintendo is going to lose Europe that badly, when last time they beat the 360?

That's strange, if you'll look at my parent post, you'll see I show Nintendo's Wii beating the 360 more than in the US.

These are initial hype purchase projections - final results will probably end up with major Wii dominance. But a good ad campaign can stave off the utter rout a bit.

Wondering where the 360s are ...

[WillAffleckUW]

You think that Microsoft chose how many 360s to manufacture for the launch and that once that number was reached, factory floors went quiet? Console shortages are caused by the manufacturer not being able to get them out the door fast enough, not manufacturers trying to hedge their bets and only producing a limited number.

No, I think they have a parts shortage, as has been extensively covered in the print edition of the Wall Street Journal.

Why? What have you heard?

Re:Wondering where the 360s are ...

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

The "you" in my comment was not directed at you, obviously.

Re:Wondering where the 360s are ...

[WillAffleckUW]

ah, so it was in regards to the parent of my reply.

However, the original parent at least attempted to predict console percentages for EU, US, and Japan separately, and didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales. As the originator of the discussion, he had a fairly insightful post that was a lot closer than much of the hype I've been seeing before E3.

A few comments have been made that Japanese gamers are far more likely to buy expensive game consoles than might be true in the US/EU - I'm not sure if that is true, but if so, it could be either due to a desire to be able to play not just current ship date games, but also projected future post-console-release games, and thus the strike price of the console at retail may not be as important as the game, music, and movie capabilities from a Japanese console consumer viewpoint.

Re:Wondering where the 360s are ...

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

"ah, so it was in regards to the parent of my reply."

Listen, if you can't even follow a simple nested view of comments, I don't have time to explain anything to you.

"However, the original parent at least attempted to predict console percentages for EU, US, and Japan separately, and didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales. As the originator of the discussion, he had a fairly insightful post that was a lot closer than much of the hype I've been seeing before E3."

I didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales either. As point of fact, I made no mention of how many 360s are going to be sold worldwide. Were you even replying to my comment?

"A few comments have been made that Japanese gamers are far more likely to buy expensive game consoles than might be true in the US/EU - I'm not sure if that is true, but if so, it could be either due to a desire to be able to play not just current ship date games, but also projected future post-console-release games, and thus the strike price of the console at retail may not be as important as the game, music, and movie capabilities from a Japanese console consumer viewpoint."

Again, that has nothing to do with the point that I was making. Don't waste my time, moron.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[SScorpio]

I have to agree with you on Nintendo taking Europe or at least doing better than 1%. Look at the Sony Europe division's Eyetoy games for the PS2. While they were never a major hit in the US, they were very big in Europe. Nintendo could easily get picked up by that market.

Don't overlook these games

[7Prime]

I've always been an XBox naysayer, but as for the Japanese market, there are two titles that very well may be the 360s Halo of Japan: Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon. I can't stress the importance of these titles enough. Lost Odyssey is a project headed up by the former Final Fantasy mastermind, and at his side is the world's most famous video game composer, Nobuo Uematsu (saying that he has "rock star" status in Japan is a very large understatement). From the looks of it, it's going to be a HUGE game, with a focus on a lot of things that Japanese gamers want, it may very well be the spiritual "equal" to FF13. Blue Dragon, while not having the star status of the former, still is going to be a huge release. Many people, myself possibly included, might very well buy a 360 for these games alone. MS could put itself on the Japanese map virtually overnight. Currently, I see about a 3-way split in titles aimed at the Japanese market... and seeing the PS3s price point, that is not good news for Sony. If these two titles are as big as I think they might be, Sony can kiss it's local market dominance goodbye, and we'll soon see Square jump ship completely (remember, they're not a Sony exclusive). Whether developers jump ship for the Wii or the 360 is another issue entirely, and I think we'll see some really interesting developement in the "rivalry" between those two systems.

Re:Don't overlook these games

[atomicstrawberry]

"Blue Dragon, while not having the star status of the former, still is going to be a huge release."

Blue Dragon is also being headed up by Hironobu Sakaguchi, also has a Nobuo Uematsu soundtrack, and it has character designs by the freakishly popular Akira Toriyama of Dragon Quest (and Dragonball) fame. Given that it's going to be released before Lost Odyssey (they're pushing for later this year), I'd say Blue Dragon is actually by far the higher-profile of the two. It's probably worth noting that the last time these three came together on a project (Uematsu was credited as being involved even though he didn't write the score) the result was Chrono Trigger, which is still one of the best-loved Japanese RPGs ever.

Re:Don't overlook these games

[7Prime]

I was not aware of their involvement in Blue Dragon, partially because I know so little about Blue Dragon. BTW: Uematsu WAS involved in writing some of the music for Chrono Trigger... 13 tracks, if I remember correctly, most notably, of which, is probably the boss battle theme. But yes, the bulk was done by Mitsuda, who was just getting his composing legs at the time (sadly, I feel that it's by far his best score, I have not been impressed with his work since.)

And yes, the 360 may very well be mine by Christmas if this title lives up to it's rep... and it just means that others will follow. Japanese RPGs are quickly becoming more and more of a niche market in the US, so the 360 will never be lead by them, but it's international appeal will grow significantly if it can add some good ones to its repatoire

Re:Fortunes reversed?

[I Like Pudding]

I was going to reply to my own post that any Tolkien reference on /. nets an automatic +5, but then you had to go and fuck that up

I posted this in a similar thread a few days ago

[KNicolson]

...but another survey said that three-quarters of the surveyed Japanese gamers wanted to buy a PS3, whilst just half of all of them had even heard of the Wii!

(And in another survey, grannies have the highest ownership percentage of DSes.)

Re:Yeah, but that's the thing

[buffer-overflowed]

That's a serious problem when your console's price point is more than people are used to paying.

That and that neither of the titles you mention are *launch* titles as far as I know.

Re:I posted this in a similar thread a few days ag

[bunbuntheminilop]

I'd like to say "Famitsu has more advanced sampling techniques" but I can't read Japanese.

Re:I posted this in a similar thread a few days ag

[MeanderingMind]

Just a couple of notes.

1) This survey was published the 25th, which means it was conducted in less than a span of two weeks following E3. Not everyone, even avid game players, goes crazy refreshmonkeying websites reporting on it. As such, there is a certain amount of diffusion that has to take place before this group of gamers learns about what happened at E3.

2) It's hard to argue too much with Famitsu, because it's the single largest video game related publication in Japan. In a nation where renting video games is outlawed, they need a source to trust for which games are worth buying. Famitsu is where most gamers look to. At the very least, Famitsu readers make up the "hardcore" crowd in Japan. If the very crowd Sony can be said to be targeting isn't putting their faith in Sony...

Parent deserves a mod point.

[justchris]

You're both very right, and very wrong, but I still think people should read what you wrote.

Japanese gamers do buy innovative games, they just also buy tried and true games. And to be fair everyone in Japan buys Dragon Quest games, not just gamers, so that makes two weaknesses in your argument.

The Wii then, is the perfect system for Japan. It overs innovation and newness, as well as a catalog of nostalgia, the two things that are most likely to sell in the Japanese market.

Re:Parent deserves a mod point.

[shadow0_0]

I have to say I agree with you. The other perspective is Japaneses want something that they can play in small doses while they are on the train.

Re:Pulling numbers out of asses

[Svenheim]

Nintendo's strength in the European market greatly varies by a country to country basis. I don't have a full knowledge of all the markets and sales, but I can tell you what I know. The NES was less of a success in Europe than it was in the US, but it still did reasonably good, and in some countries it did great. In the UK especially it had hard competition from Sega's Master System, but also other very important popular systems like in the beginning the Commodore 64, and later (and to a greater extent) the Amiga 500, and also the similar system Atari ST. (Similar to the Amiga 500, not the NES).

In Norway, which is my home country, the NES was a HUGE success. I'm born in 1981, and in my childhood (late 80s, early 90s), pretty much all the kids my age sooner or later got a NES. The "Nintendomagasinet", which was the norwegian equivalent of Nintendo Power, was hugely successful, and was at one point one of the most read magazines by children, beating most popular comic book magazines.

There were some Master Systems around, but they were much less popular than the NES. With the SNES Nintendo completely dominated the Norwegian market, and the gameboy of course ate the competition for breakfast all over the world.

Playstation however took over as the market leader, and I would say now, the Playstation brand is the strongest in Europe. If you look at sales data, you would see that the PS2 has sold far more units in Europe relatively compared to the US and Japanese markets, than any Nintendo console, and of course also the Xboxes. Here in Norway the PSP is doing pretty much the same as the DS. Here Nintendo is really suffering from the kiddie image they got since the Playstation and the Resident Evils, GTAs, FPS games and other "mature" (I hate that term) games and genres became popular. (And yes I know Resident Evil is on gamecube, I have them all).

So, ehm, that's just my two cents

Hack a WiiMote for the PC?

[el_benito]

I'm looking forward to the fruits of labor by those intrepid hackers who want to hook up the WiiMote to a PC via Bluetooh