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Redemption Still Possible For Sony?
Gamasutra reports on the slim chance that Sony may still be able to redeem itself from its poor showing at E3. In a new 'Analyze This' column, they ask a group of analysts how things are for Sony today. From the article: "In spite of the higher than expected price points, we still expect the PS3 to be in high demand from early adopters at launch. But Sony must put more effort into differentiating its games from those of rival platforms, both in terms of original compelling titles as well as overall quality. Otherwise, later adopters will not be persuaded that the PS3 has anything more to offer. Sony must clearly also address its relative weakness in online, where Microsoft has a substantial lead."
Which has to come first though? I say it's the people buying the system. Would PS2 have so many games today if there wasn't that initial craze for it? Will PS3 be anywhere near as popular initially as the PS2? From what I'm hearing there aren't a huge number of people who are interested in it at that price, but I could be wrong.
It is very likely that the very expensive blu-ray drive will drop in price rapidly as production ramps up. This should allow Sony to drop the price of the console.
It depends how may developers use the cell processor to its fullest extent and how
creative/fun the games are.
I'm not going to bash the PS3 directly. I have not seen it in action, held the new controller, or had any other exposure that mainly occurred through E3.
However, no one can deny that there has been a lot of backlash. First and foremost, the pricepoint. Second, the heated argument that Sony may or may not have received inspiration for their new controller from Nintendo's remote.
The second argument is almost irrelevant. As a Nintendo fan myself, I will gladly say it. Whether the controller was "stolen" or not is a non-issue. Sony either had plans to use this controller beforehand, or they did not. If they did not, it will show in the game play -- extended game play that will most likely occurr after the purchase of a PS3.
Regarding the price, that alone has alienated a number of casual fans, such as myself. I own a PS2, but I never bought one outright. I bought mine used, around 2001, when the price tag was far lower. Price is a major factor for many consumers. Many times, it does not come down to "do I want the system with the hard drive, or the one without...", but rather "do I want the system, or do I want to make my car payment".
Additionally, the PS2 was a good investment in the long run as it had an established game library. When the XBox debuted, most of the games I had an interest in were already released, or being simultaneously released, for the PS2. I did not have to spend the additional $300+ on an Xbox, new controllers, memory cards, etc. Everything I wanted was already available on the PS2, therefore negating my desire (and in fact, need) for an Xbox.
Today, the roles are reversed. The Xbox 360 is available, stock is being supplied to retailers, and the game library is slowly but surely increasing.
I believe, in order to gain sure-footing in the market, the PS3 will need not only quality games, but exclusive ones. If the game is available on a system for $200 less, how is that going to encourage someone to spend that extra $200 to begin with? The XBox 360 may very well showcase the same titles as the PS3, but the 360 has already appeared in today's market, giving it some leverage, whereas many of Nintendo's titles will be exclusive their own console, presumably.
I do not believe that the PS3 will be a "failure". It will sell units. I already know of someone who said, with a shrug, "It's almost like a computer" and seemingly resigned himself to purchasing it. I do not believe that it will be a rampant success by any means.
Those who believe the Internet is private,
find their privates are on the Internet.
Are we talking about Sony redeeming themselves to normal consumers?
Or redeeming themselves to Slashdot?
Because they've got a good shot at the first one.
Shoot you'll be able to surf the web with the Wii for much cheaper. The way they've been talking Opera is going to come standard with the Wii and it will be connected to the internet 24/7 (if you let it).
... as it was with the PS2. Simple fundamentals ate getting in the way of any developer not in Sony's (or MS's) back pocket.
As a 3rd party developer, I can say that our high-end titles are being developed for all three platforms: PC, Xbox 360 and PS3. We're doing that out of necessity; "Next Gen" games are costing 8 figures+ ($10+ million) these days, much due to content.
Now, how many Xbox 360's are there out there? How many will there be when we ship? What about the PS3 installed base? A "Hit" game can sell to well under 5% (say 2-3%) of a given console's owners. 20 Million Xbox's? Sell 500k units (2.5% penetration) and that's a hit. Unless you're a Halo or Grand Theft auto, that's realisitc.
Now, the cost of developing for both next-gen consoles (360, PS3) is not that much more than developing for just one console (maybe low as 1.1~1.2x) , but you stand to sell a lot more in total. Using an engine such as Unreal 3? Not much more effort and you have a PC version too.
Now, about that $10 to $20 million we just spent? We better sell a lot of copies, or it was a mistake to make the game in the first place. Right now, it'll be a good while before there is an installed base of 10 million on either console, but yet our games are much more expensive to make than the previous generation. To recoup advances and hopefully turn a profit means getting it out to the largest audience possible.
Oh, and there's the little matter of Xbox 360 being out first, and having signifiantly better developer tools than Sony that has developers developing on Xbox 360 as first/primary, and then porting their games to PS3. Last generation it was different, but this time Xbox was available first, and Sony's efforts to catchup to Xbox's tool and documentation quality is more than lacking.
but I'm beginning to have my doubts about Zonk.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
Sony must clearly also address its relative weakness in online, where Microsoft has a substantial lead.
The future of gaming is online multiplayer (not better graphics) because online multiplayer affects the core of gaming, which is gameplay. This is a big reason PC gaming isn't dead and the reason why any of the major consoles who don't make this leap will be left behind. Of course, this means way more than having an internet ready gaming console. The GameCube and PS2 are internet ready (though adapters are required). Microsoft has XBox live, which is more than internet connectivity, it is a online multiplayer/gaming community platform. What XBox live provides is an easy, well managed solution for developers who are looking for a console to make their online multiplayer games for. Even if Sony were to bring SOE to the PS3, it still falls short of providing any kind of method for third party developers to build online multiplayer games for the PS3. IMHO, for Sony to redeem the PS3, they need to not only bring SOE to the console (and fix the problems with SOE), but also allow third party developers access to its capabilities.
I think the point is not that the Wii is not a viable platform, but it's not going to be the same as developing for the other 3 platforms. The other 3 will most likely share quite a bit more code, as well as art assets. The Wii will not, simply because it won't be as powerful as the others. Porting to the Wii will be more like porting to last gen systems, in that you're probably removing a lot of features or in some case creating an almost entirely different game.
Again, that's not necessarily a problem for the Wii, because it's intended to be a completely different kind of game machine. Games will be simpler in some cases, in other cases they'll be using the Wii custom controls (which no other system will be able to use, including PS3), and most likely the games that use a huge budget and really stretch the limit of the system will be exclusives.
Point being, if you're writing to multiple platforms at once, the Ps3, 360, and PC can be dealt with at once with the same kind of cost the parent poster hinted at. If you add Wii to the mix, you're porting, and the only reason it's worth doing (because of the extra effort to downgrade) is to most likely take advantage of the Wii's unique features. If wii gets a lot of marketshare, that's exactly what will happen, but it's an additional cost and throws the 1.2x cost factor off kilter.
1. Sony did not "stumble out of the gate" for the Playstation launch at E3. What happened with the Playstation one at E3 is the stuff of legend.
2. Microsoft had poor initial showings for the Xbox and the Xbox ended up losing Microsoft $7 billion dollars and remains a distant second to the PS2.
3. As far as I've been able to tell, E3 is the thing among the gamer market to decide what's hip as what's not. Even if he was right about the Xbox and Playstation, the facts wouldn't support this statement.
4. Even if gamers don't pay attention to E3, the muckity-mucks at places like EA, Activision and Ubisoft do, and Sony's stumble is going to have repercussions regarding the decisions they make regarding what titles they'll produce, what consoles they'll produce them for, and how much effort they'll put into a port. The PS3 went in one week from being the likely market leader to a likely failure, and past crimes of Sony against development houses (i.e., making the Playstation 2 & 3 difficult to develop for, thus cutting into developer's margins) are going to have a substantial effect on what games are available for it. And the gamers will pay attention to what's available for their systems.
I agree with PJ of Groklaw's comment... I gotta get into this "Analyst" business. You can know absolutely nothing, spew off about things, and people will pay you to do it. How lovely!
Firstly, Japan is not the rest of the world. That is your only example (although mentioned Europe, you brought no figures), and Japan is well known for turning a cold shoulder towards foreign companies (though not always). If you'd also brought up numbers of other markets such as Australia and the EU, your claim about the "rest of the world" might be better. As it is, your argument would be better put as "the all important market of Japan".
Secondly, note something within your own statistics. The Nintendo DS, a handheld with good but technically inferior power made up for with a large dose of innovation, outsold the PSP, a handheld with many media functions and supirior power, 10 to every 1.
The point there is, Sony is not only competing with Microsoft. Nintendo continually claims they aren't competing directly with Sony and Microsft. In a sense that is true, because they are largely aiming for people who don't already play games or who gave up playing them. However, Nintendo is competing with them for developers. When developers see that one console is selling ten times what another is, an OLDER console no less, they aren't going to ignore that.
I highly doubt that the PS3 won't sell well at launch, despite the over optimism the analysts seem to ooze. The PSP sold well at launch too. However, we now see Nintendo's DS not only competing but in many ways thrashing the PSP. The potential exists for a similar event with the new generation of consoles.
Thunderclone: ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE! ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE!
Look at what drewmca said - he got got it pretty close.
Basically, the Wii is seen as in a different group than PC/360/PS3. Different games, different audience and different content requirements, not to mention different levels of CPU and Graphics horsepower.
First off, the three platforms mentioned are the ones that are making use of the insanely high-def content with uber-normal maps and shader effects. It's a lot more expensive to make content at the Unreal 3 engine level than at the Wii level. Personally, I think Nintendo is freaking awsome for realizing that you don't need to have 2 artists and a programmer spend a week getting the specular sweat-drop effects working just right against the character's facial acne. That's where it seems like were going with the crazy levels of detail these days.
We do have plans for Wii and other (non next-gen) platforms, but it's best to approach them on their own terms and not try to force a 360/PS3 title onto them.
Sorry if I wasn't clear (and re-reading my post, I probably wasn't) but I completely agree with everything you're saying. I just wanted to stress that there are (or, at least, will be) four "new" systems (i.e. ones which will have new games coming out for the forseable future): PC, 360, and the yet-to-be-released Wii and PS3. My issue was the GP said something along the lines of "the three next gen consoles." Market success is as much an issue of mindshare as it is an issue of actual system power. I'd say the constant posts on Slashdot about the iPod not having $FEATURE_X while $PLAYER_Y does are an example of this sort of thing. For example, many publications put the GameCube behind the XBox and PS2 in terms of marketshare when, internationally, this really isn't true - XBox and GC are in the same ballpark, while both are quite a bit below the PS2. I know I'm fighting a losing battle, but I'd like to prevent that sort of thing for the 'next generation' of consoles. By leaving the Wii off (and by implying - intentionally or unintentionally - that no fourth system exists) it sends a message about the Wii's relationship to the 360, PS3, and computer.
Again, I don't think this was intentional on the part of the GP and I think he meant "the three most graphically powerful systems (PS3, 360, and PC)" rather than simply "the three next gen systems (PS3, 360, and PC)."
Just my two cents.
-Trillian
I stopped playing about (what I'd assume) is a third way through because it just got so repetitive
What on earth do you mean!? Clear room out, walk through door, turn to left blast monster supposed to jump out and scare you, turn around blast monster that spawned behind you. Clear out room, walk through door, turn to the lef....
Doom 3 was scary until I realised that every room follows the same pattern. I never did get around to finishing it but the game improves a a hell of a lot when you get to hell (Was playing Last Man Standing co-op with some mates). Last Man Standing co-op makes Doom 3 worth the money I paid for it. It's so awesome having old school co-op goodness through beautifully designed levels. If only I could say the same about the standard Doom 3....
Have you metaroderated recently?
I just wanted to stress that there are (or, at least, will be) four "new" systems (i.e. ones which will have new games coming out for the forseable future): PC, 360, and the yet-to-be-released Wii and PS3.
Not to be too pedantic, but there is also the DS, GBA, PSP, PS2 (still active development going on, probably for the next 4 years or so), browser (different environment than PC), Symbian J2ME Flash Lite BREW Pocket PC Mobile phone development, and the various arcade systems, amusement park attractions, etc. Possibly the XGP / 32X2 as well.
There is a lot of options out there. And as the market evolves, and consumer devices become more powerful, it looks like more and more will spring up.
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