Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?

simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"

Comments

does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[preppypoof]

how can you predict consumer preference? who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[barawn]

Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.

The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.

I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.

You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.

Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.

Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.

He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[Omestes]

Thank you for the Neo Geo comparison, I like the analogy. Flippantly, does this mean that the PS3 will be the console that every 13 year old kid lusts over, but no one ever buys?

I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.

I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).

Not an expert here, but it is fun to think about.

interesting guess...

[Slovenian6474]

I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.

Re:IMO...

[richdun]

FTW indeed. Couple that with that ridiculous story yesterday about Sony suggesting game prices could go up even further from $59, and you're right on the money (thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week!)

Case in point - me. Last weekend, after contemplating a Xbox 360 purchase for months, I decided instead to just buy an Xbox 360 controller and hook it up to the Mac Mini already sitting next to my HDTV (gaming on a Mac - I know, blasphemy). Add Halo for Mac and some emulators, and I've got a pretty nice retro gaming system. And chances are, there'll be a Wii sitting next to it this time next year. $249 or less for a system, plus free or cheap retro games and one or two new games and I'll probably still spend less than the purchase price of one PS3 - without games, accessories, etc.

ummm...what is he thinking?

[preppypoof]

The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.

so he is predicting that the PS3 and wii will each sell about as many units in their second year as in their first year. it's pretty basic knowledge that consoles, games, albums, whatever, always sell a lot of units at the relative beginning of their release before the numbers dip, often dramatically.

Maybe if numbers are US only, but not worldwide

[WillAffleckUW]

And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.

Re:And this is news?

[jizziknight]

I've heard the opposite. One person saying they're getting a 360, one person saying they *might* get a PS3 after a price drop, and lots of people (including the two above) talking about getting a Wii, some of them even non-gamers.

But that's not the real point. The point is that you can't go only on your own circle of friends. That's a somewhat skewed population. Why do you think a lot of new products and services are tested in the midwest (Pepsi Clear comes to mind)? The midwest, namely the Ohio and Indiana area, has a very mixed culture. I can drive through a fairly large town and see all different kinds of people from all different corners of the world (not that you can't necessarily do this in say NYC, but it's definitely more widespread here). A company can save a lot of time and effort by simply releasing a product there first. If it fails, scrap it. If it does well, start releasing it elsewhere.

All of these market share predictions are moot until the product is actually on the shelves, and the general populus actually knows they exist. Right now it's mostly limited to tech geeks and gamers.

Also, I've seen just as many Xbox and Sony fanboys on here as Nintendo fanboys.

All that being said.... Wii FTW!

Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality

[cowscows]

Agreed, although I think Nintendo is doing a few things to try and combat that. Lining up more third party devs is the big one, as you noted. They seem to be trying, I don't know if it'll work.

But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.

The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.

And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.

Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.

Congratulations, Another Bad Analogy!

[Anonymous Coward]

You have to get that number from empirical observations. You also have to get the speed of light in a vacuum from empirical observations.

Are you really ignorant enough to make an anology between the accuracy of observing the economy and observing the speed of light in a vacuum?

One's a bit more consistant than the other. The speed of light is one unchanging velocity. The economy is several different figures all in constant flux with very loose relationships built around one another.

You can also derive the speed of light from many different angles and methods and run several experiments with controls and variables. No such luck in the "science" of economics.

Roll a d20

[Headcase88]

I'm not sure. If I were to guess, I'd say it would be very close, say... 40% for the 360, and 35% for the Wii and 25% for the PS3 (keep in mind this means more sales in terms of $ for the PS3 than the Wii). Something like that.

360 has a big advantage from being first; they'll have not only a fanbase but a lot of titles available by the time the other two launch, and with that momentum they'll get an even bigger fanbase and more titles. It's a vicious cycle.

the PS3 has the strongest brand recognition, but Sony has made what is in my opinion a shitload of stupid moves. It's not just the high price, but the actual cost of making the console which guarantees that price won't go down for a while. Apparantly it's not the easiest console to develop for either, so the "variety" card that the PS2 had will probably get passed to the 360 this gen. The Blu-Ray playing aspect is the dumbest part. It's too early to put that in a console. As far as I'm concerned, the first couple years of the PS3 will have few games and a small fanbase. It won't really have a proper "launch" for a couple years when they're cheaper to manufacture, and by then the vicious cycle thing will stop them from doing too well for this generation. I guess I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

I love Nintendo's products and have no doubt that I'll love the Wii. They'll get a good amount of money from us hardcore types (the price and concept makes it go well with either of the other consoles). Many kids are picky and demand a certain console, but many parents just won't pay the price of a PS3 no matter how much their kids scream. Two things I'm not sure about for the wii are: third-party support, and selling this thing to casual gamers (they need to put up Wii kiosks in malls, and I don't mean in game stores.).

I'm just guessing all of this. Maybe I can call my self an analyst and get on this post quoted on the /. games page. That seems to be all it takes.

Re:IMO...

[Anonymous Coward]

Bingo. I have a DS Lite (first game hardware I have bought since the PS 2). I also have a Linux laptop, a Mac Mini and two Windows PCs.

A point about the DS Lite: my wife ACTUALLY PLAYS Brain Age. I can't name a game on PC / Mac / PS 2 she plays. And I play Brain Age, New Super Mario (retro fun without screwing with downloading ROMs etc) and Mario Kart.

My next-gen console purchase? Wii. The games look fun, even (finally!) for non-gamers. Maybe Brain Age on the DS Lite is the gateway drug for non-gamer spouses of gamers. Also, any graphics intensive game will be done as well or better on the PC, so I'll play it there...

Re:Wii WILL trail

[revlayle]

You're not getting Nintendo's marketing strategy, are you? The Wii is not marketed specifically to the current user-base of current-gen consoles. Sure they want the hard-core gamers, but, they really want to tap into the casual and non-gamers, which their new system may very well appeal to.

Right.... this guy isn't listening to the facts.

[kinglink]

So in his opinion, a 400 dollar monstrosity, and a 600 dollar screw up is going to sell much better than the ~300 dollar Wii?

I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following

1. 600 dollar price
2. Higher Priced games.
3. No GTA Exclusivity
4. Going with all blu ray games.
5. A cheaper version that essentially isn't a game system in many ways.
6. An unknown and untested online that promises everything the Xbox does (though likely will have more focus on label music)
7. The same controller with unproven "movement functionality" and no rumble.
8. A strong lineup of launch games.

Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.

The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.

Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.

That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.

Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.

And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.

Wii might "lose"...

[Bungleman]

but not by that much... I mean, just based on the price alone I could see the Wii being right up there with the other systems. Personally, I'm a Nintendo fanboy, so they could have put out anything this round and I still would have bought it. But the price point of the system makes it exactly able to do what Nintendo wants... be a second console to the people who are already buying the Xbox/PS3. So what is Nintendo doing right?

1. Innovative new controls. Will it be fun? Who knows... but a lot of people will try it out to see.
2. Aforementioned price point.
3. Backward controller compatibility. You can use your Cube controller for games that support it (ala the awesomeness that will be the next Smash Bros).
4. Virtual console. Sure you can get these as illegal roms, but I have this strange desire to compensate Nintendo for finally giving me this option. Ironically enough, I'm probably looking forward to playing the old classics more than some of the Wii games.

But the real reason I like Nintendo is because they're sticking to what they're good at... making gaming systems. Their console isn't made to play music, watch super HD content, bake bread, take out the trash, etc... It's made to (gasp) play games. And because of that, it costs (gasp) a third the price of the PS3 all in wonder system, packed full of features that most people really don't want *cough* Blu Ray *cough*. If I wanted to do all that, I'd buy a computer... which I do anyway, plus my computer is better at doing those things than some bloated, overpriced console.

So I wouldn't count the Wii out just yet...

Oh god..

[manowar821]

Look, this is NOT news. It's an opinion, and it's a terrible one at that. I don't read this website to learn "how badly zonk thinks the xbox will beat everything else". I come here to read about new CPU architectures, space exploration tech, cutting lasers, and attacks on freedom of information, etc etc. Leave your opinions in your room, Zonk. You're a news writer, correct? I don't think anyone wants this site becoming like ****ing Fox news, those pigs. Now, on the other hand, I'm not writing a news report, so I can tell you that I think the Wii will do a lot better than these M$ fanboys think. They have an excellent plan, unlike the brute-force plan that Sony and M$ always follow.