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Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?
simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
Upon reading that again, i realize it doesn't make as much sense as I thought. I'll clarify:
If the PS3, 360, and Wii sold exactly the same numbers as the PS2, XBOX, and GC, the 360 would dominate for a while just because it was on the market first and will benefit from early price drops that keep it competitive. I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and develop the game libraries that 360 has a head start on.
120 characters for a sig? That's bloody useless.
The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.
Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?
Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?
Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.
As someone who sold literally hundreds of Gamecubes working retail, the people that buy Gamecubes are not enthusiasts looking for a little engine that could, they are predominantly parents looking for the system that offers the most kid friendly titles and the lowest price.
There are those that pick them up for wonderful titles like RE4 and SSBM but at least in my experience they're not in the majority.
bzzz wrong. Console sales do not follow the same sharp sales curves that videogames, movies and cds do. Yo do get a spike at launch day, but that's about it. Take a look at the PS2 install base worldwide:
End of 2000 - 6.4 million
End of 2001 - 24.99 million (+19)
End of 2002 - 49.59 million (+25)
End of 2003 - 69.46 million (+19)
End of 2004 - 81.39 million (+12)
End of 2005 -101.37 million (+20)
As you can see, sales are not all that different through the console's lifecycle. You see drops when few good games come out, and increases during price drops and major game releases. Just look at the weekly japanese sales at media create and crunch some numbers.
Where is he drawing his conclusions?
Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?
The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.
Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.
If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.
Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
http://saveie6.com/
> Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
Revision of a model in the face of new data is how all sciences progress. Also, you mistate the new theory behind the Phillips Curve. In the short run, the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment still holds. In the long run, the Phillips Curve is a vertical line, but it can't be plotted anywhere; it must be plotted at the natural rate of unemployment. You have to get that number from empirical observations. You also have to get the speed of light in a vacuum from empirical observations.
vi ~/.emacs # I'm probably going to Hell for this.
Jason Anderson, Xbox Canada 's Group Marketing Manager, predicts success for the xbox. 0.0 JASON ANDERSON IS WITH XBOX MARKETING CANADA. !?!?!?!
I think the reason the DS is doing so well in Japan is because they started getting another demographic - girls, adults, etc. - with Nintendogs and the Brain Age series, and then the design of the DS Lite just really drove that home.
Also, if you're a total geek like me, you'll have started to see Brain Age and Touch Generation advertisements on TV on such stations as The History Channel, The Discovery Channel, and National Geographic Channel. These adds feature adults playing on DS Lites and make the whole thing look like it's as mature and acceptable as an adult reading literature.
http://www.cafepress.com/hikarudesigns/ http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=hikaru