Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?

simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"

Comments

does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[preppypoof]

how can you predict consumer preference? who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[barawn]

Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.

The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.

I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.

You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.

Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.

Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.

He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[Omestes]

Thank you for the Neo Geo comparison, I like the analogy. Flippantly, does this mean that the PS3 will be the console that every 13 year old kid lusts over, but no one ever buys?

I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.

I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).

Not an expert here, but it is fun to think about.

interesting guess...

[Slovenian6474]

I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.

ummm...what is he thinking?

[preppypoof]

The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.

so he is predicting that the PS3 and wii will each sell about as many units in their second year as in their first year. it's pretty basic knowledge that consoles, games, albums, whatever, always sell a lot of units at the relative beginning of their release before the numbers dip, often dramatically.

Maybe if numbers are US only, but not worldwide

[WillAffleckUW]

And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.

Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality

[cowscows]

Agreed, although I think Nintendo is doing a few things to try and combat that. Lining up more third party devs is the big one, as you noted. They seem to be trying, I don't know if it'll work.

But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.

The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.

And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.

Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.

Re:Wii WILL trail

[revlayle]

You're not getting Nintendo's marketing strategy, are you? The Wii is not marketed specifically to the current user-base of current-gen consoles. Sure they want the hard-core gamers, but, they really want to tap into the casual and non-gamers, which their new system may very well appeal to.