Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?

simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"

Comments

where are these numbers coming from?

[paradigmdream]

how can they suggest those numbers for the ps3 and wii if they haven't even launched yet?

Re:where are these numbers coming from?

[Dark Paladin]

Based on his numbers, this makes perfect sense. After all:

360 sales in the month of May * 3 = uh, a lot
PS3 sales in the month of May * 3 = 0
Wii sales in the month of May * 3 = 0

Dang - the 360 will totally rule the next gen market! I can be an analyst too!

Remember, kids, you can't spell analyst without anal.

Re:where are these numbers coming from?

[AuMatar]

These are some of the 79.683% of statistics which are made up.

Re:where are these numbers coming from?

[Strudleman]

Wrong. You just can't spell it correctly :)

does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[preppypoof]

how can you predict consumer preference? who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[barawn]

Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.

The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.

I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.

You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.

Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.

Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.

He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[Omestes]

Thank you for the Neo Geo comparison, I like the analogy. Flippantly, does this mean that the PS3 will be the console that every 13 year old kid lusts over, but no one ever buys?

I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.

I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).

Not an expert here, but it is fun to think about.

Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something?

[Irish_Samurai]

In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations,
Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.

I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.

For the PS3, you do price point analysis. The product doesn't have to be the same. You analyze consumer response in comparison to price point increases that are on par with Sony's annouced prcing. This will give you a response trend.

For the Wii, that target audience has been disected like a frog. Kid friendly with a dash of innovation. You may think it is completely irrelevant - but the biggest trends to compare this to is candy. WTF?!!! Yep, candy. Candy started taking an "interactive" and "electronic" aspect about a decade ago. It used to be all Bazooka Joes and Pixie Stix, now its candy that beeps and comes in cool packaging that moves or does something utilizing the candy. Yeah, I know we had whistle pops way back in the day - but we also had Space Wars too. You can get fairly accurate trends out of consumer response to drastic new ideas applied to common ubiquitous entities - especially as candy is pretty attractive to the target group Nintendo is going after.

You have to remeber this is trend analysis, its not an exact science. You take a whole bunch of statistics with related aspects, qualify them - and then analyze the results in relation to what you're trying to predict. You can do this without having existing statistics on exact subject matter.

Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

Uhh, no - he's spot on. Even if the PSP and DS have similar install bases, I'd like to see your references - Nintendo has a long history of handheld dominance. That's established. One neck and neck race between two devices while ignoring the GB Advance SP is a flawed analysis. Add those numbers and you see that Nintendo is still owning handheld. The SP is still selling, making it a competator. I guess you meant PSP vs. DS, not true market.

Attention Instead of Science

[eldavojohn]

In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?

The analysts probably get it. But their talking sepeculation based on economics. Economics is an in-exact science. More specifically, it's an observational science--much like weather forecasting.

Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.

It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.

interesting guess...

[Slovenian6474]

I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.

wii

[Given M. Sur]

I think Game Informer had it right in this month's magazine.

if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base

Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.

But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.

Wii Underrated ?

[bateleur]

The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.

Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?

Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?

Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.

Re:Wii Underrated ?

[Anthony Boyd]

The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.

You'd think they'd be related, or something. :(

Re:Wii Underrated ?

[Jeff DeMaagd]

I think you both underestimate how price-concious the console market is. If the Wii is half the price of the PS3 and a lot less than a XB360, with just as many good games, then it should be easy to see that the Wii could very well have a very strong advantage.

I'm not making a prediction though, I think it's way to early to do that when two of the systems in question aren't even available. I'm just saying that it's a pretty big wild card, all three companies are placing pretty big bets on the future of the industry, and the one that's right stands to get the most users. MS and Sony are both betting on variations on an HD path, and Nintendo is angling to grow by expanding the market to include more people not considered conventional gamers.

ummm...what is he thinking?

[preppypoof]

The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.

so he is predicting that the PS3 and wii will each sell about as many units in their second year as in their first year. it's pretty basic knowledge that consoles, games, albums, whatever, always sell a lot of units at the relative beginning of their release before the numbers dip, often dramatically.

Re:ummm...what is he thinking?

[hibiki_r]

bzzz wrong. Console sales do not follow the same sharp sales curves that videogames, movies and cds do. Yo do get a spike at launch day, but that's about it. Take a look at the PS2 install base worldwide:

End of 2000 - 6.4 million
End of 2001 - 24.99 million (+19)
End of 2002 - 49.59 million (+25)
End of 2003 - 69.46 million (+19)
End of 2004 - 81.39 million (+12)
End of 2005 -101.37 million (+20)

As you can see, sales are not all that different through the console's lifecycle. You see drops when few good games come out, and increases during price drops and major game releases. Just look at the weekly japanese sales at media create and crunch some numbers.

Re:Makes sense... [Or Not]

[JayDot]

Only problem is that the Wii isn't the GC. Sure, the proc and graphics may not be a major new innovation, but the hype about the Wii has always been the new controller. Speaking as a marketing student, Nintendo has done a very capable job of marketing the new product, keeping it in the public eye, and giving encouraging price point nods. I predict this analyst prediction will be totally off the wall. Can I get paid too, since I have just as much insight on the yet-to-be-released PS3 and Wii as this writer?

Re:IMO...

[Neoprofin]

And to think, if you were willing to give up the one or two new games that you are only considering buying you could do the whole thing for the $30 cost of Halo and call it a day.

You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.

Re:Eh?

[Neoprofin]

As someone who sold literally hundreds of Gamecubes working retail, the people that buy Gamecubes are not enthusiasts looking for a little engine that could, they are predominantly parents looking for the system that offers the most kid friendly titles and the lowest price.

There are those that pick them up for wonderful titles like RE4 and SSBM but at least in my experience they're not in the majority.

Re:Eh?

[barawn]

Rigth now the average gamer doesn't want inovation, he just wants flashy graphics and a good FPS that a noob could pick up and win in, Nintendo is trying to sell in their style, but their style will not match up with the average gamer community

And that's why the prediction is likely wrong: it looks like he's predicting numbers based on what the "average gamer" will do. Nintendo's not targeting the "average gamer". Neither is Sony, for that matter: $500 is outside of what the average gamer will pay for a console.

The "non-gamer" community is still much larger than the "average gamer" community. If Nintendo manages to convince a good portion of them to buy a Wii, they'll dominate in terms of market share.

Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality

[ArmyOfFun]

Interesting find from the analyst according to the article:

From the onset, the Gamecube's [gamerankings.com aggregate] scores were highest, followed by Xbox, then PS2, which hovered around 70% for the entire duration.

In other words, gamers reward consoles which offer them the most choice in their game selection, not necessairly the highest overall quality. Not really surprising if you think about it, but it's interesting to see some numbers backing it up.

The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.

If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.

The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.

Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality

[cowscows]

Agreed, although I think Nintendo is doing a few things to try and combat that. Lining up more third party devs is the big one, as you noted. They seem to be trying, I don't know if it'll work.

But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.

The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.

And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.

Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.

Maybe if numbers are US only, but not worldwide

[WillAffleckUW]

And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.

Pulling numbers out of his ass

[Billly Gates]

Where is he drawing his conclusions?

Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?

The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.

Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.

If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.

Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?

Predictions

[djdavetrouble]

The same way all good--and bad--predictions are made: They made them up. ;-)

You couldn't be more wrong. Among Nostradamus' many cryptic and undated predictions, there were
thinly disguised sales numbers for video game consoles, a decade into the new millenium.
Check the quatrains, my friend. It is ALL There

Re:IMO...

[AuMatar]

And this is why the Wii will win. SOny and MS are using your philosophy, and targeting the hard core gamers. Nintendo is targeting all gamers. They're looking to get back those people who loved the original Mario, those people who played them back on NES and SNES, and expand the market into the casual gamers. THere's a hell of a lot of gamers out there who couldn't care less about the latest and greatest FPS with uber realistic graphics.

Re:Wii WILL trail

[revlayle]

You're not getting Nintendo's marketing strategy, are you? The Wii is not marketed specifically to the current user-base of current-gen consoles. Sure they want the hard-core gamers, but, they really want to tap into the casual and non-gamers, which their new system may very well appeal to.

Re:IMO...

[Garse Janacek]

I've seen this argument used a lot to defend Sony, but it's very frequently used against people (like me) who say the PS3 is too expensive, but they will probably buy a Wii. If someone is going to buy a next-gen console, then whether Sony considers them the "intended audience" or not, they are the next-gen audience. The point is that Nintendo has been trying very hard lately to expand their audience to include more than just devoted hard-core gamers, and so far it shows signs of working (I recently bought a DS Lite after not owning a console since the SNES, and I have multiple friends in the same boat -- it's almost the perfect "casual gamer" system [my wife, who almost never plays video games, is now most of the way through New Super Mario Bros.])

So, when all these people who are not in the traditional "next-gen" market say that they will be buying a next-gen system, and that it will not be the PS3, how can you dismiss it with "Well, you aren't the target audience?" Do console sales only count if they're buyers that Sony is interested in?

Strategy Schmategy

[podperson]

PS3 isn't launched. Based on current sales the leading console in 2009 will be the PS2 (which is outselling XBox 360). This may sound like a flip joke, but it's actually a fairly likely scenario. Remember the PSOne? It was only just discontinued.

Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?

Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.

Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.

Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)

So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).

In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.

Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.

Tags != Comments

[bXTr]

Tags are for finding related articles, not for your personal opinion. That's what the comments and your journal are for. If that's not enough, make your own website.

Surprised?

[whogben]

Jason Anderson, Xbox Canada 's Group Marketing Manager, predicts success for the xbox. 0.0 JASON ANDERSON IS WITH XBOX MARKETING CANADA. !?!?!?!